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PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

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PotashCorp.com Q3 2012 Conference Call October 25, 2012
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Page 1: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q3 2012 Conference CallOctober 25, 2012

Page 2: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#2

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world, including the European sovereign debt crisis; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Page 3: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#3

Third-Quarter 2012 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.74 per share1; trailing the $0.94 per share earned in 2011

• Record third-quarter North American potash sales volumes

• Cash flow prior to working capital changes of $0.8 billion2

• Gross margin of $0.9 billion; below the $1.1 billion earned last year

• Market value of investments $9.2 billion, or $10 per PotashCorp share3

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 See reconciliation and description of non-IFRS measures in our Q3 2012 news release titled “Selected Non-IRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations” available at www.potashcorp.com.3 As of market close on October 24, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Page 4: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#4

Reduced Gross Margin Due Primarily to Potash Segment

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

Q3 2011 GM

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen Q3 2012 GM

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200 $1,132

$927

-$146

-$47-$12

US$ MillionsPotash Highlights:• Record North American and strong Latin American

sales volumes offset by decline in China and India• Prices were lower on offshore market weakness• Higher costs due to lower production, higher

Esterhazy costs, facility mix and depreciation costs

Phosphate Highlights:• Weaker prices, primarily for liquid and solid phosphate

fertilizers• Lower sales volume due to production constraints;

offset by lower per-tonne cost of goods sold

Nitrogen Highlights:• Strong agricultural and industrial demand supported

higher ammonia prices• Reduced sales volumes due to production constraints;

higher per-tonne cost of goods sold primarily due to higher Trinidad gas costs

Source: PotashCorp

Page 5: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Source: USDA

Slide#5Based on crop year data. For example, 12F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1012F

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Percent

Productivity Improvements Needed to Begin Replenishing Grain Inventories

World Grain Stocks-to-Use Ratio

25-year average

Page 6: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#6

World Grain ProductionRecent Stagnated Production Has Highlighted Importance of Balanced Fertilization

Source: USDA, Fertecon

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Grain Production – Billion Tonnes

Page 7: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#7

Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp

Jan-10May-10

Sep-10Jan-11

May-11Sep-11

Jan-12May-12

Sep-120.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Potash Cost Percentage of US Corn Revenue

Favorable Crop Economics, Limited Dealer Inventory Drive Strong Q3 Shipments

North American Potash Market Update

10-year average

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.22011 2012

Million Tonnes KCl

Producer Shipments to North American Market

Percent

Page 8: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#8

Source: Safras and Mercado, ANDA, PotashCorp

Strong Returns and Agronomic Need Are Driving Record Nutrient Consumption

Brazil Potash Market Update

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Percent

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSept Oct Nov Dec0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20 2011 2012

Million Tonnes KCl

Brazil Soybean Gross Margin Percentage Brazil Potash Imports

Page 9: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#9

Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAI, PotashCorp

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8KCl Imports

KCl Retail Prices

Rs/tonne of KCl

Changes to India’s Subsidy System Have Amplified Application Imbalance

India Fertilizer Market Situation

Million Tonnes of KCl

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Urea Consumption

Urea Retail Prices

Rs/tonne of Urea Million Tonnes of Urea

Page 10: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#10

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

2011 India North America Other Asia Other 2012F46

48

50

52

54

56

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash DemandInventory Destocking and Lower Indian Imports Affect Demand in 2012

Page 11: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#11

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash ShipmentsExpect Strong Rebound in 2013

India China

Latin America

Other Asia

North America

Other

Page 12: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#12

Current Dividend More Than Six-Times Its Level at the Beginning of 2011

PotashCorp Dividend Per Share*

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.03

$0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07

$0.14 $0.14

$0.21

US$ Per Share

* Dividends declared each quarter

Source: Bloomberg

Page 13: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#13

2012 Guidance*

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $2.40-$2.60**

• Potash gross margin: $2.1-$2.3 billion

• Potash shipments: 7.6-8.3 million tonnes

• Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.3-$1.5 billion

* Guidance as at October 24, 2012

** Includes impact of Q2 2012 $0.39 per share Sinofert impairment charge

Source: PotashCorp

Page 14: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

Slide#14

2012 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: $2.2 billion

• Annual effective tax rate: ~26 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: ~10 percent of total potash gross margin

• Other income: $375-$425 million

• Selling and administrative expenses: $225-$245 million

• Finance costs: $100-120 million

* Guidance as at October 24, 2012

** Does not include capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

Source: PotashCorp

Page 15: PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

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