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PotashCorp.com
Q3 2012 Conference CallOctober 25, 2012
Slide#2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world, including the European sovereign debt crisis; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Slide#3
Third-Quarter 2012 Highlights
• Earnings of $0.74 per share1; trailing the $0.94 per share earned in 2011
• Record third-quarter North American potash sales volumes
• Cash flow prior to working capital changes of $0.8 billion2
• Gross margin of $0.9 billion; below the $1.1 billion earned last year
• Market value of investments $9.2 billion, or $10 per PotashCorp share3
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 See reconciliation and description of non-IFRS measures in our Q3 2012 news release titled “Selected Non-IRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations” available at www.potashcorp.com.3 As of market close on October 24, 2012
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#4
Reduced Gross Margin Due Primarily to Potash Segment
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison
Q3 2011 GM
Potash Phosphate Nitrogen Q3 2012 GM
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200 $1,132
$927
-$146
-$47-$12
US$ MillionsPotash Highlights:• Record North American and strong Latin American
sales volumes offset by decline in China and India• Prices were lower on offshore market weakness• Higher costs due to lower production, higher
Esterhazy costs, facility mix and depreciation costs
Phosphate Highlights:• Weaker prices, primarily for liquid and solid phosphate
fertilizers• Lower sales volume due to production constraints;
offset by lower per-tonne cost of goods sold
Nitrogen Highlights:• Strong agricultural and industrial demand supported
higher ammonia prices• Reduced sales volumes due to production constraints;
higher per-tonne cost of goods sold primarily due to higher Trinidad gas costs
Source: PotashCorp
Source: USDA
Slide#5Based on crop year data. For example, 12F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1012F
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Percent
Productivity Improvements Needed to Begin Replenishing Grain Inventories
World Grain Stocks-to-Use Ratio
25-year average
Slide#6
World Grain ProductionRecent Stagnated Production Has Highlighted Importance of Balanced Fertilization
Source: USDA, Fertecon
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Grain Production – Billion Tonnes
Slide#7
Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp
Jan-10May-10
Sep-10Jan-11
May-11Sep-11
Jan-12May-12
Sep-120.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Potash Cost Percentage of US Corn Revenue
Favorable Crop Economics, Limited Dealer Inventory Drive Strong Q3 Shipments
North American Potash Market Update
10-year average
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.22011 2012
Million Tonnes KCl
Producer Shipments to North American Market
Percent
Slide#8
Source: Safras and Mercado, ANDA, PotashCorp
Strong Returns and Agronomic Need Are Driving Record Nutrient Consumption
Brazil Potash Market Update
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSept Oct Nov Dec0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20 2011 2012
Million Tonnes KCl
Brazil Soybean Gross Margin Percentage Brazil Potash Imports
Slide#9
Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAI, PotashCorp
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8KCl Imports
KCl Retail Prices
Rs/tonne of KCl
Changes to India’s Subsidy System Have Amplified Application Imbalance
India Fertilizer Market Situation
Million Tonnes of KCl
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Urea Consumption
Urea Retail Prices
Rs/tonne of Urea Million Tonnes of Urea
Slide#10
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
2011 India North America Other Asia Other 2012F46
48
50
52
54
56
Million Tonnes KCl
World Potash DemandInventory Destocking and Lower Indian Imports Affect Demand in 2012
Slide#11
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
12F
13F
Rec
ord
12F
13F
Rec
ord
12F
13F
Rec
ord
12F
13F
Rec
ord
12F
13F
Rec
ord
12F
13F
Rec
ord
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Million Tonnes KCl
World Potash ShipmentsExpect Strong Rebound in 2013
India China
Latin America
Other Asia
North America
Other
Slide#12
Current Dividend More Than Six-Times Its Level at the Beginning of 2011
PotashCorp Dividend Per Share*
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.03
$0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07
$0.14 $0.14
$0.21
US$ Per Share
* Dividends declared each quarter
Source: Bloomberg
Slide#13
2012 Guidance*
Full Year
• Earnings per share: $2.40-$2.60**
• Potash gross margin: $2.1-$2.3 billion
• Potash shipments: 7.6-8.3 million tonnes
• Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.3-$1.5 billion
* Guidance as at October 24, 2012
** Includes impact of Q2 2012 $0.39 per share Sinofert impairment charge
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#14
2012 Guidance*
Full Year
• Capital expenditures**: $2.2 billion
• Annual effective tax rate: ~26 percent
• Provincial mining and other taxes: ~10 percent of total potash gross margin
• Other income: $375-$425 million
• Selling and administrative expenses: $225-$245 million
• Finance costs: $100-120 million
* Guidance as at October 24, 2012
** Does not include capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance
Source: PotashCorp
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