Potential Wood Supply in Swiss Forests

Federal Department of the Environment,Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC

Federal Office for the Environment FOEN

Potential Wood Supply in Swiss Forests

LEF

Biennial workshop in Forest Economics

Nancy, 30.5-1.6.2012

2 Potential wood supply in Swiss forestsPaolo Camin

Agenda

• Introduction• Wood use scenarios

• Growth model MASSIMO• Definition of the scenarios

• Calculation of the sustainable potential• Description of the Approach, “Onion Model”• Results

• Conclusions• Work in progress• Discussion


Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI)

• Field surveys• NFI 1 1983-1985• NFI 2 1993-1995• NFI 3 2004-2006• NFI 4 from 2007 permanent survey

• 6’500 sample plots• Forest surface 1'300'000 ha

• Function wood production 38%

• Growing stock 346 m3/ha• 69% coniferous

• Biomass increment 9.7 Mio. m3/yr• Exploitation and mortality 9.1 Mio. m3/yr


Priorities of Swiss Forest Policy 2020

1. The potential of Swiss wood supply sustainably exploited

2. Climate change adaptation and mitigation

3. Protective functions of the forest are ensured

4. Protection and promotion of biodiversity

5. Conservation of the forest surface area


Targets of the Study

• Actualize data on Increment and Potential Wood Supply for the next 30 years based on the national forest inventory

• Build scientific background for policy decisions on the mobilizing of wood resources


Project Overview

Growth Model„MASSIMO“

National Forest

Inventory

Working group scenarios


Project Overview

• Basic data for growing stock and increment from the

3rd National Forest Inventory (NFI3)

• Definition of a basic scenario

• Definition of 3 different wood-use scenarios

• Modeling with the WSL’s empirical single tree growing model "MASSIMO"

• Analyze the results with the “Onion Model”

• Potential wood supply differentiated per region

WSL: Eidg. Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft


Growth Model "MASSIMO"

Scenarios


Model Outputs

Model outputs:

• growing stock

• increment

• drain (cut and mortality)

The data are biomass in [m3] for five tree

compartments, five forest functions, and 14

economic regions covering the whole of

Switzerland


Definition of the Scenarios

A: Baseline scenarioconstant growing stock

B: Long-term maximised incrementWith reduced growing stock

C: Kyoto-optimized (high C-stock)With high growing stock

D: High demand for wood (market-based)Increased harvesting during 20 years, after reduction and finally level of

scenario A

With reduced growing stock


Economic factors

Ecological factors

Social factors

Balancing act for a sustainable wood supply


"Onion Model“ : Analysis of scenarios to ensure sustainable wood supply

Total biomass potential of each scenario

Available ecological potential of wood:- Stumps not used- 5-15% bark and branches not used- 50% twigs not used

Potential after socio-economic negotiation process:- Promotion of biodiversity- Protective functions / social function- Standards for close-to-nature silviculture

Proportion that can be used economically and sustainably:

Remaining 69% for use of total annually biomass potential

- 12%

- 8%

- 10%

= 70%

100%


Frameconditions for analysis of the scenarios

• Only biomass from forest land

• Wood above ground from the base to the top of the

stem, including branches and bark without foliage

• Legal requirements and standards for close-to-nature

silviculture, all forest functions are guaranteed

• No stump extraction, no fertilisers


• Increase of forest area 3% till 2036• Increase of Protected Areas to 10% in 2030

(presently ≈4%)• Forest biodiversity promotion (managed to achieve

specific conservation objectives)• Social functions of forests (e.g. recreation)• Protective function of forests (against natural

hazards)• Economic limits for extraction of wood

Frameconditions for analysis of the scenarios


Sustainable potential wood supply

A B C D

Scenario D with high market demand for next 20 years


Resulting growing stock

A

B

C

D

High growing stock

Low growing stock

A B C D


Mortality due to high density(cumulated for 100 years)


Sustainable Potential Wood Supply

Potential Wood Supply [in Mio. m3/yr]

coniferous broadleaves total

scenario A

2007-2036 5.1 2.6 7.7

2037-2056 4.8 3.2 8.0

2057-2106 4.5 3.8 8.3

2007-2106 4.8 3.3 8.1

scenario B

2007-2036 6.2 3.2 9.4

2037-2056 4.2 2.9 7.1

2057-2106 4.1 3.8 7.9

2007-2106 4.7 3.4 8.1

scenario C

2007-2036 4.4 2.3 6.7

2037-2056 4.4 2.9 7.3

2057-2106 4.2 3.3 7.5

2007-2106 4.3 2.9 7.2

scenario D

2007-2036 6.7 3.6 10.3

2037-2056 3.5 2.5 6.0

2057-2106 3.4 3.4 6.8

2007-2106 4.4 3.3 7.7


Conclusions

• The potential wood supply (± 8 Mil. m3 annually)

exceeds the present supply (± 7 Mil. m3).

• All forest functions are guaranteed for all scenarios.

Detailed impacts have to be further studied.

• The potential varies for the different regions and for

different ownership categories.

• The wood demand and supply is not an absolute

value, but depends on timber price fluctuations.


Conclusions

• Scenario B: the expected increase of increment was

not confirmed within a period of 100 years.

• Scenario C delivers the smallest potential wood

supply calculated for 100 years. The others are ±

equal if calculated.

• Scenario D: The considerable harvesting during the

first 30 years resulted in reduced supply afterwards

• The baseline scenario A has the advantage of a

continuous stable wood supply.


Work in progress

• The results of this project are the basis for consolidating the wood mobilization policy of the Federal Office for the Environment

• Regional differentiation and verification of the scenarios

• Analysis of calculated potential supply and current demand for wood

• Calculation of the forest management reference level for the second accounting period of the Kyoto Protocol

• Including the impacts of climate change in the growth model MASSIMO


Potential wood supply by assortment(Basis scenario)

Energy wood RoundwoodIndustrial Roundwood


Compare supply and demand for energy wood (Basis scenario)


Compare supply and demand for energy wood (Basis scenario)


For further information:www.environment-switzerland.ch

Thank you for your interest!Thank you for your interest!

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Potential Wood Supply in Swiss Forests

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