Poverty AnalysisPoverty Analysis

Buapun PromphakpingBuapun Promphakping

buapun@kku.ac.thbuapun@kku.ac.th

Different sorts of povertyDifferent sorts of poverty

Extreme poverty: an inability to meet Extreme poverty: an inability to meet basic needsbasic needs

Lack of opportunity: chances and Lack of opportunity: chances and choices to participate in social, choices to participate in social, economic, political and civil live are economic, political and civil live are seriously limited.seriously limited.

Vulnerability: individual, family and Vulnerability: individual, family and community are vulnerable to community are vulnerable to circumstances, change in politics, circumstances, change in politics, economics, wars, natural calamity, etc. economics, wars, natural calamity, etc.

Poverty Analysis?Poverty Analysis?

Approaches and methodologies to Approaches and methodologies to understand the poor.understand the poor.

Ways to understand causes of Ways to understand causes of poverty.poverty.

Ways to reduce poverty.Ways to reduce poverty.

Questions?Questions? What cause poverty? What are their What cause poverty? What are their

consequences?consequences? What are interactions of various sets of causes, What are interactions of various sets of causes,

especially social process and power that especially social process and power that perpetuate poverty?perpetuate poverty?

What are ways and means to escape from What are ways and means to escape from poverty trap?poverty trap?

What are specific types of the poor, what cause What are specific types of the poor, what cause them to be poor, how they deal with their them to be poor, how they deal with their poverty?poverty?

How to prioritize measurements and interventions How to prioritize measurements and interventions to eradicate poverty?to eradicate poverty?

ApproachApproach

Country Profile Country Profile PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy

ProcessProcess Poverty and Social Impact AnalysisPoverty and Social Impact Analysis Participatory Poverty Assessment Participatory Poverty Assessment

Poverty Country Profile

Country ProfileCountry Profile

An analytical synthesis of poverty An analytical synthesis of poverty related information to answer the related information to answer the questions:questions:– Who are the poor?Who are the poor?– Where do they live?Where do they live?– What are the main characteristics?What are the main characteristics?– Why they are poor?Why they are poor?

How to conduct country How to conduct country profileprofile

Step 1: defining povertyStep 1: defining poverty– Household income/consumption, i.e. Household income/consumption, i.e.

poverty line and their associate indices.poverty line and their associate indices.– Human capabilities: adult literacy, child Human capabilities: adult literacy, child

malnutrition, primary enrollment rate, malnutrition, primary enrollment rate, etc.etc.

– Access to public servicesAccess to public services– Employment and assetsEmployment and assets– Natural resources Natural resources

Step 2: Analyze available information Step 2: Analyze available information to answer four questions:to answer four questions:– Who are the poor?Who are the poor?– Where do they live?Where do they live?– What are the characteristics of their What are the characteristics of their

poverty?poverty?– Why they are poor?Why they are poor?

How to conduct country How to conduct country profileprofile

Existing data sourcesExisting data sources

National census (household survey)National census (household survey) Basic Needs SurveyBasic Needs Survey Village Profile SurveyVillage Profile Survey Report of Ministries/ DepartmentReport of Ministries/ Department

Health Index•Life expectancy•Rate of child malnutrition•Rate of HIVs •Rate of population consuming alcohol and tobacco

Step 3: Determining poverty tendsStep 3: Determining poverty tends– Long term scenarioLong term scenario– Short term scenarioShort term scenario

Step 4: Consider national policy Step 4: Consider national policy frameworkframework– National development strategyNational development strategy– Poverty reduction strategyPoverty reduction strategy– Government policiesGovernment policies– Public expenditure program. Public expenditure program.

How to conduct country How to conduct country profileprofile ( (cont.)cont.)

Poverty Reduction Strategy ProcessPRSP

What is Poverty Reduction What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP)Process (PRSP)

Main tool used for policy & Main tool used for policy & national budget priorities national budget priorities and economic planningand economic planning

Basis for donor Basis for donor coordination – aid coordination – aid resources aligned to PRSP resources aligned to PRSP priorities.priorities.

Macro-Economic Policy & Budget Priorities

Sector Budget Priorities

What is Poverty Reduction What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP)Process (PRSP)

Designed to be Designed to be consultative process consultative process involving all country’s involving all country’s major sectors and major sectors and stakeholdersstakeholders

Guides Central Guides Central Government budgetary Government budgetary allocations to sectors such allocations to sectors such as energy, health, as energy, health, education and agricultureeducation and agriculture

Macro-Economic Policy & Budget Priorities

Sector Budget Priorities

Impact of PRSPImpact of PRSP

Macro-EconomicPolicy & Budget Priorities

Health, Education & Water

Sector Budget Priorities

Consensus on Consensus on priority activities priority activities and institutional and institutional approachapproach EducationEducation – Primary – Primary

educationeducation HealthHealth – Primary – Primary

health care, HIVhealth care, HIV

Health, education and waterHealth, education and water analysts able to demonstrate: analysts able to demonstrate: – Investment in Investment in health, education and health, education and

waterwater = poverty reduction = poverty reduction

Poverty and Social Impact AnalysisPSIA

Poverty and Social Impact Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA)Analysis (PSIA)

PSIA is the analysis of intended and PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of actual or unintended consequences of actual or potential policy interventions on the potential policy interventions on the well-well-being of different social groupsbeing of different social groups, with a , with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerableparticular focus on the poor and vulnerable

PSIA focuses on PSIA focuses on – The distributional The distributional impacts on different impacts on different

stakeholdersstakeholders, , – income and income and non–income dimensionsnon–income dimensions– The positive and negative impacts of the policy The positive and negative impacts of the policy

agendaagenda

GoalsGoals

– Understand better the likely impacts of Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups reforms on different groups ((disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood linesspatial and livelihood lines))

– Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor policy agendaspolicy agendas

– Facilitating the Facilitating the processprocess: Building a : Building a broad constituency for changebroad constituency for change

4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA: Activities:- Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process- Institutional Analysis - Monitoring during- Impact Analysis implementation-Risk Analysis

Social Analysis brings different research focus, generates different information, generated via different set of tools and methods

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PSIA: Main Elements

What is the value added of What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA?social analysis in PSIA?

Explains how social identity and social relations Explains how social identity and social relations may affect policy outcomes and impacts may affect policy outcomes and impacts

Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and to understand implementation issues and constraintsconstraints

Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economyeffects of political economy

Helps to identify socio-political and institutional Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risksrisks

Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reformsownership of reforms

Policy toolsPolicy tools

PricesPrices EmploymentEmployment Access to goods and servicesAccess to goods and services AssetsAssets Transfers and taxesTransfers and taxes GovernanceGovernance

1. Country Social Analysis 1. Country Social Analysis (CSA)(CSA)

CSA is an upstream, political economy CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of effectiveness and sustainability of development interventionsdevelopment interventions

provide recommendations for the provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in opportunities for participating in development, accessing public development, accessing public institutions and holding them institutions and holding them accountable, accountable,

The CSA framework analyzes the The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions:interaction between two dimensions:

– Social diversity, assets, and livelihoodsSocial diversity, assets, and livelihoods What is the existing distribution of and access What is the existing distribution of and access

to assets and services across different social to assets and services across different social groups? What is the impact of that distribution groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor?poor?

– Power, institutions, and governancePower, institutions, and governance What are the institutions that mediate access What are the institutions that mediate access

of the poor to assets and services? How do of the poor to assets and services? How do these institutions impact policy making and these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?resource reallocation ?

1.2. Stakeholder analysis1.2. Stakeholder analysis

1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis Questions:Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What Who are the stakeholders? What

is their position with respect to policy change? is their position with respect to policy change? What motivates them?What motivates them?

Tools:Tools: Policy interest matrix Policy interest matrix Political mappingPolitical mapping

1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis Questions: Questions: What are the institutional rules What are the institutional rules

and relationships that influence policy reform?and relationships that influence policy reform? Tools: Tools: Network analysisNetwork analysis

Transaction cost analysisTransaction cost analysis

2. Understanding the policy 2. Understanding the policy implementation processimplementation process

Analysis of the Analysis of the process of process of implementationimplementation allows us to allows us to explore how, why and under what explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention conditions a policy intervention might work, or failmight work, or fail

Objective: a greater understanding Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual factors, of the contextual factors, mechanisms and processes mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s success or underlying a policy’s success or failure. failure.

Stakeholders:Stakeholders: focuses on interests and focuses on interests and the relative importance and influence of the relative importance and influence of different interests groups and actors and different interests groups and actors and the role each might play in the the role each might play in the implementation processimplementation process

Institutions:Institutions: as a sets of rules that as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective behavior. govern individual and collective behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated poverty and social distort the anticipated poverty and social impact of policy reform impact of policy reform

Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social or informal, (cultural practices and social norms)norms)

Institutions operate and influence behavior Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life: in different domains of daily life:

– the the statestate domain (governing justice, political domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery), processes and service delivery),

– the the marketmarket domain (governing credit, labor and domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and goods) and

– the the societalsocietal domain (governing community and domain (governing community and family behavior).family behavior).

2. Understanding the policy 2. Understanding the policy implementation processimplementation process

2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder AnalysisObjective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors. Tools: Stakeholder analysis matrices

Micro-political mappingForce field analysis

– 2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysis

– Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policy

– Tools: Organizational (static and process) mapping

3. Understanding the impacts 3. Understanding the impacts of policy agendaof policy agenda

Objective:Objective: examining the likely or actual examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro levelslevels

Social modelsSocial models are applied are applied – evaluating winners and losers evaluating winners and losers – understanding how different social groups understanding how different social groups

act in the face of the events and how act in the face of the events and how institutions impact on their lives, institutions impact on their lives,

– Tools: Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts of “theory of change” and employ concepts of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilitiesentitlements, capabilities

Methods and dataMethods and data– Objective:Objective: Employing a common set of Employing a common set of

questions on impacts, linked to the questions on impacts, linked to the transmission channelstransmission channels

– Tools: Tools: A range of methods that A range of methods that generate both qualitative and generate both qualitative and quantitative data quantitative data

4. Policy Analysis: Assessing 4. Policy Analysis: Assessing uncertainties and risks to policy uncertainties and risks to policy

reformreform Objective: Assessing how Objective: Assessing how

confident we are that the confident we are that the predicted impacts will occur?predicted impacts will occur?

Risk assessment: Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA utilizing PSIA

data and analysis to identify and data and analysis to identify and map the risks to policy reform.map the risks to policy reform. – Institutional risks, political economy, Institutional risks, political economy,

exogenous, and country risksexogenous, and country risks

Scenario analysis Scenario analysis help us choose help us choose the policy option that is most likely to the policy option that is most likely to result in our desired outcome result in our desired outcome – (4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify (4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify

scenarios for policy reform, Analyze the impact scenarios for policy reform, Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare and choose the preferred scenario)Compare and choose the preferred scenario)

Participatory poverty Participatory poverty assessment/wealth assessment/wealth

rankingranking

•Develop farmers own criteria on poverty Develop farmers own criteria on poverty and well-being indicatorsand well-being indicators

•Solicit farmers assessment of relative Solicit farmers assessment of relative poverty levels of different households and poverty levels of different households and determining factorsdetermining factors

•Identify farmers priorities for improving Identify farmers priorities for improving their well-beingtheir well-being

Community resource Community resource mappingmapping