E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
0
Clean Power Asia 2012
Power development scenarios to 2040:
Impact of low carbon technology to emission
reduction from power sector in Indonesia
Djoko Prasetijo
System Planning Division
PT PLN (Persero)
Nusa Dua, Bali
14-16 May 2012
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
The electricity sector in RI will still be centered around
Java-Bali power system to 2020
IB :
10,2%
24 TWh
55 TWh
IT :
10,8%
13
TWh
31
TWh
JB : 7,8%
125 TWh 241
TWh
2011 2020
1
Java-Bali: 125 TWh in 2011 241 TWh in 2020
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
2
How RI is going to meet the future electricity demand?
• Utilizing indigenous energy resources: mostly coal with
some gas and less oil
• Plans to develop large scale geothermal, and some hydro
• Other RE is also important, but of smaller volume, and
security of supply issue.
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
3
impact
un
ce
rta
inti
es
2 1
3 4
Fuel Cell
CCS
IGCC
Small
CBM
Large
CBM
Nuclear
OceanConcentrated
Thermal
Solar
Panel
Small
Coal
Gass.
Wind
PV
Biomass
Combus
tion
Bio Fuel
Biomass
Gas
Landfill
Gas
Large
Hydro
Geo
thermal
Pumped
Storage
PLN’s Perspective on Energy Technologies
USC
SC
Sub-C
LNG
CC
Gas
CC
PLN’s Perspective on Energy Technologies
time
Now to 2020 2020 to 2030 2030 to 2040
imp
ac
t
IGCC
Large
CBM
Nuclear
Ocean
Small
Coal
Gass
Wind
PV
Biomass
Combustion
Bio FuelBiomass
Gas
Landfill
Gas
Hydro
Geo Pumped
Storage
Medium
CBM
SC
USC
CC
Advanced
USC
Gas
Engine
SubC
CCS
2020 2030
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
5
Cleaner Use of Low Rank Coal
• The plan to use more coal in power sector will be balanced by the plan to
develop large scale geothermal and small-medium-large hydro power,
and the use of CCT.
• PLN sets a policy to plan only SC/USC coal plants in Java for better
efficiency and lower CO2 emissions.
• PLN has been assessing the relevant factors
• technical availability,
• low rank coal availability,
• economic viability,
• Conclusion: CCT that can be adopted by RI are USC and IGCC.
16 Feb 2012
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
6
Roadmap of CCT in Indonesia *)
*) Source: The Project for Promotion of Clean Coal Technology (CCT) in Indonesia, Interim Report,
October 2011, Jakarta, JICA Study Team, with modification
2011 2015 2020 2025
SC, = 35-40%
USC, 43%
IGCC
45-48%
Central Java IPP
(USC 2x1000 MW)
Indramayu #1
(USC 1000 MW)
Indramayu #2
(USC 1000 MW)
Bekasi
(USC 2x600 MW)
2000–3000 MW
per year
IGCC 1000 MW Class
16 Feb 2012
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GW
h
HSD MFO LNG Gas Batubara Geothermal Hydro
Electricity production by fuel, Jawa-Bali 2011-2020 [GWh]
as per PLN’s power development plan (RUPTL)
Coal
Geothermal
Hydro
Gas
LNG
Oil
7
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
8
Emission Reduction: Least Cost vs RUPTL
Emission will increase from 110 million tons in 2011 to 205 million tons in 2020.
Grid emission factor will improve from 0,778kgCO2/kWh in 2011 to 0,756 kgCO2/kWh in 2020.
Emission improvement is achieved from ultilisation of natural gas, geothermal and SC/USC technology.
Emission will increase from 110 million tons in 2011 to 236 million tons in 2020.
Grid emission factor will improve from 0,778kgCO2/kWh in 2011 to 0,762 kgCO2/kWh in 2020.
Emission improvement is achieved from ultilisation of natural gas and SC/USC without geothermal.
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million tCO2
Coal Gas LNG HSD MFO
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million tCO2
HSD MFO LNG Gas Coal
Least Cost RUPTL
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
9
Looking Beyond 2020: How carbon value is
going to affect the feasible technology and CO2
emissions
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
Demand Projection for Java – Bali Power System 2011-2040
-
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000 20
11
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Energy Production Peak Load
MW GWh
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
Power Generation Expansion Scenarios :
Impact of Carbon Value
• The purpose of the study is to understand the impact of carbon value
to the economics of power generation as seen by a power utility.
• Some plausible futures have been explored to see if CCS could be an
economic solution in the optimal mix of power generation options.
• The key variable that determines the feasibility of CCS is carbon
value, and in this simulation it is varied between 0 and US$75 /ton.
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Carbon Value in US$/ton 0 25 50 75
Nuclear as Option No Yes Yes Yes
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
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Development Priority
1. Geothermal development: to 2020 refers to Geothermal Roadmap by Ministry of E &
MR which is based on KEN (total of 6.000 MW in 2020 the whole country).
Between 2021 and 2025: refers to geothermal study by Ditjen Minerbapabum of 2007
(9.500 MW in 2025 for whole Indonesia, 3.835 MW for Jawa Bali).
2. Hydro power development: Hydro potential in Java is limited, only a few locations as
per RUPTL. Mini/micro hydro is too small to be accounted for.
3. Other RE: not accounted as baseload generation due to fluctuating output and smaller
scale (ocean, wind, solar, biofuel).
4. Other New Energy for baseload: only nuclear is possible, therefore nuclear option is
open from 2022 onwards.
5. IGCC: an option from 2025.
6. CCS (in Coal PP): an option in 2030.
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
13
Configuration of Power Generation (by Technology)
USC+CCS
IGCC+CCS
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000B
ase
line
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
Ba
selin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
Ba
selin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
Ba
selin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
PLTP PLTN PLTU PLTU USC PLTU+CCS PLTU AUSC IGCC
IGCC+CCS PLTGU GAS PLTGU LNG PLTG PLTD PLTA PS
2020
2011
2030
2040
US
CA
US
CS
ub
C
NP
P
LN
G
MW
$25 $50 $75 $25 $50 $75 $25 $50 $75$25 $50 $75
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
14
Configuration of Power Generation (by Fuel)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000B
ase
lin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
Ba
se
lin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
Ba
se
lin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
Ba
se
lin
e
Sce
na
rio
1
Sce
na
rio
2
Sce
na
rio
3
GEO NUC COAL GAS LNG MFO HSD PUMP HYDRO
2020
2011
2030
2040Observation:
Indonesia power
sector will be largely
coal driven when
carbon value is low
MW
co
al
NP
P
$25 $50 $75 $25 $50 $75 $25 $50 $75$25 $50 $75
E L E C T R I C I T Y F O R A B E T T E R L I F E
15
Projection of CO2 Emissions
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Emissions
(million tons CO2)
585 $0
565 $25
510 $50
