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    FOCUS ON PROJECTSDRIVING INNOVATION

    CHECKLIST FOR GASPLANT PLANNING

    Official Media Partner for

    POWER-GEN Middle East 2014

    SHOW ISSUE

    September 2014The magazine for the international power industry

    www.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    HRSG TECHNOLOGYUNLOCKS FLEXIBILITY

    PUSHING GAS TURBINEEFFICIENCY ENVELOPE

    Middle East Focus:The projects driving a

    new power mix

    http://digital.powerengineeringint.com/powerengineeringint/201409/TrackLink.action?pageName=Cover&exitLink=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.PowerEngineeringInt.com
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    2014 GE Power & Water, a division of General Electric Company.

    events.powergen.com Follow GE Power & Water

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    Efficiency doesnt have to be a puzzle.

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    POWER ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL

    Contents

    Free Product InfoYou can request product and service information from this issue. Simply click on the link below that will provide you access to supplier companies websites,

    product information and more http://pei.hotims.com

    If you are considering suppliers or buying products you read about in PEi, please use this service. It gives us an idea of how products are being received to help us continually

    improve our editorial offering and it also lets our advertisers know that you are a PEi reader and helps them to continue supporting the free distribution of your magazine.

    Features

    16 Pushing the gas turbine efficiency envelope

    With modern gas turbines expensive to run and maintain, weexplore how operators rise to the challenge of getting the

    best out of their machines.

    22 Planning tips for a gas-fired plant

    Some key techno-economic aspects are often overlooked

    when trying to decide on the right technology for a new gas

    plant, yet they play a key role in the lifecycle analysis.

    28 Offshore winds new battleground

    If offshore wind is to maintain its pace of growth and competewithout subsidy, then the cost of electricity generated from

    future projects must come down.

    2 Industry Highlights

    55 Diary

    56 Ad Index

    Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Middle East Power Project Focus

    6 Paving the way for progress

    We outline the status of several key power projects that arehelping to shape a new energy mix in the Middle East.

    SEPTEMBER 2014///VOLUME 22///ISSUE 8

    www.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    Taking the heat: the latest advances in HRSG technology. p38

    Source: NEM

    32 Iraq: from crisis to ISIS

    Just as it was beginning to recover its optimism afteryears of war, Iraqs energy sector has been derailed by the

    advance of ISIS across the country.

    38 Advances in HSRG technology

    Boiler designers are coming up with a new generationof flexible steam generators that are finally setting free the

    innate flexibility of the gas turbine.

    44 Hydropowers environmental challenges

    The hydropower sector is responding to challenges createdby concerns over climate change, water availability and

    other environmental issues.

    POWER-GEN Europe Best Papers50 Keeping monitoring in the pipeline

    As modern thermal power plants push for ever-greaterefficiency, the need for lifetime monitoring of piping systems is

    more vital than ever.

    On the coverRabigh power plant. Credit Samsung

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    Industry Highlights

    Another month brings yet another

    report warning that policy uncertainty

    risks stalling investment in a particular

    power generation sector.

    In August the report came from the

    esteemed analysts at the International Energy

    Agency and the market in question was

    renewables.

    Power generation from renewables grew by

    240 TWh last year to hit 5070 TWh, accounting

    for almost 22 per cent of global generation.

    This was driven by global investment in thesector of around $250bn.

    Money of this magnitude isnt invested

    lightly and the IEA warned that policy tinkering

    or even wholesale overhauling risks seeing

    this financial backing coming to a standstill.

    IEA executive director Maria van der

    Hoeven said that just as renewables are

    becoming a cost-competitive option in

    an increasing number of cases, policy and

    regulatory uncertainty is rising in some key

    markets. This stems from concerns about the

    costs of deploying renewables,She stressed that policy decisions must be

    predictable and retroactive changes must

    be avoided. Governments must distinguish

    more clearly between the past, present and

    future, as costs are falling over time. Many

    renewables no longer need high incentive

    levels. Rather, they require a market that

    assures a reasonable and predictable return

    for investors. This calls for a serious reflection on

    market design.

    So far, so obvious, yet the IEA is predicting

    a drop in renewables investment of $20bn

    a year to 2020. It lowered its growth forecast

    for all renewables except solar PV and said

    Europe and the US could expect to see a

    slowdown in capacity growth.

    The renewables industry is acutely aware

    of this investment threat which it has little or

    no control over, yet is also working on those

    challenges to its future that it can influence.

    One such challenge is to bring down the

    cost of electricity generated from offshore

    wind farms to ensure that the sector can grow

    and compete with other forms of generation

    without subsidy.Benj Sykes, UK wind country manager for

    Dong Energy and co-chair of the Offshore

    Wind Industry Council, says the industry

    cannot rely on subsidies indefinitely we need

    to make rapid progress towards the goal of

    being competitive with other energy sources,

    and outlines on p28 how he believes this can

    be done.

    One region showing little sign of renewables

    dithering is the Middle East. It may currently

    boast few green power plants, but that is on

    track to change by the end of the decade.

    Its flagship solar farm Shams 1 in Abu

    Dhabi is set to be joined by other solarschemes in Dubai, Jordan, Oman, Saudi the

    list goes on, as many Gulf states look to take

    advantage of their climate and in turn save

    more of their oil and gas for export rather than

    their own power generation.

    Which is not to say that the region is not

    keeping pace with the latest technology in

    other forms of power generation: far from

    it. In our Special Focus on p6 we examine

    several new state-of-the-art plants that are

    helping to reshape the energy mix of the Gulf.

    From the worlds largest internal combustionengine plant, which is poised to come online

    in Jordan, to two gas-fired combined cycle

    plants in Oman that are at the cutting edge

    of clean and efficient power technology,

    Middle East countries are pushing ahead with

    energy strategies, backed up with the know-

    how of European companies attracted by the

    regions get-on-with-it attitude.

    Meanwhile the Gulfs first nuclear plant

    is making progress in the UAE supported by

    enviable policy certainty. The country decided

    it wanted nuclear power, drew up a policy

    framework, picked a site, chose contractors

    and Barakah power plant is underway, on

    time and budget and winning plaudits from

    the International Atomic Energy Agency. And

    all in the time that plans for Hinkley Point C in

    the UK are pushed across desks in Westminster

    and Brussels while equipment at the so-called

    shovel-ready site gather dust.

    We can expect more details of how the

    countries of the Middle East are pushing

    ahead with their power blueprints at POWER-

    GEN Middle East (12-14 October: www.

    power-gen-middleeast.com), when the majorplayers in the power industry will meet in Abu

    Dhabi. I hope to see you there.

    Middle East countriesare pushing aheadwith energy strategies,backed by theknow-how of Europeanfirms attracted bythe regions

    get-on-with-it attitude.Kelvin RossEditorwww.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    Follow PEi Magazine on Twitter:

    @PEimagzine

    Follow me: @kelvinross68

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    Outstanding OEM EPC competencefor cutting edge integrated powerplant solutions:

    World Record No. 1At the heart of the plant will be the latest Siemens

    turbine generation: the SGT5-8000H. Its output is

    equivalent to that of 22 jumbo jet engines, and it

    weighs as much as an Airbus A380 with full fuel tanks.

    In combination with a downstream steam turbine

    (Siemens SST5-5000), the Duesseldorf power plant

    will provide an electrical output of approximately

    595 megawatts (MW) in a single block.

    World Record No. 2

    The electrical efficiency of the power plant in combined

    cycle operation will be over 61 percent exceeding

    the previous world record of 60.75 percent attainedby the Siemens-built Ulrich Hartmann power plant

    in the Bavarian town of Irsching, Germany.

    World Record No. 3The plants waste heat energy will be used to supply

    district heating for the city of Duesseldorf. The 300 MW

    of thermal energy that will be extracted for this pur-

    pose will set a worldwide record for the amount of

    power harvested by a single gas turbine generating

    unit.

    District Heating

    Pipelines

    Transformers

    Heating Condensers

    Multi Purpose Building incl.

    District Heating Station

    SPPA-T3000

    Control System

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    www.siemens.com/powerplants

    Power Plant Fortuna (Stadtwerke Duesseldorf AG, Germany)

    Three world records

    in one power plant

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    SST5-5000Steam Turbine

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    Paving the wayfor progressSix major power projects highlight the ambition of theMiddle East to provide a diverse energy mix.PEi examines the projects and presents an update oneach plant from one of the major players involved inits construction

    Middle East Project Focus

    Rabigh thermal power plant in Saudi Arabia

    Credit: Doosan

    6 Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014 www.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    The worlds largest internal combustion engine

    power plant is due for imminent completionin Jordan later this month, marking a key

    milestone in the countrys unprecedented

    journey towards energy self-sufficiency by

    2020.

    IPP3, located at Al Manakher near the

    Jordanian capital Amman, will deliver 573 MW

    of power through 38 Wrtsil 50DF engines.

    The project is central to Jordans 2020

    vision: delivering a tri-fuel plant capable of

    transferring seamlessly without downtime

    between natural gas, heavy fuel oil and

    light fuel, while providing load-following

    for renewables and matching supply and

    demand exactly to drive efficiency.

    IPP3 sits at the core of Jordans 2020

    strategy, along with the exploration of extensive

    local reserves of oil shale, nuclear investments,a new LNG terminal in the city of Aqaba and

    a dual natural gas/oil pipeline running from

    Iraq.

    Energy self-sufficiency is an ambitious

    goal for any country, but for an energy-poor

    state like Jordan the target is particularly

    extraordinary, given the kingdoms historical

    reliance on foreign sources for up to 97 per

    cent of its fuel.

    In spring 2012, Amman Asia Electric Power

    Company (AAEPC), a consortium owned

    by the Electric Power Corporation of South

    Korea, Mitsubishi Corporation and Wrtsil,

    was chosen by the National Electric Power

    Company of Jordan (NEPCO) to build IPP3,

    with the turnkey contract awarded to Wrtsil

    and South Korean Lotte Engineering &Construction.

    The plant will provide baseload power

    for the countrys national grid through 22

    engines with a 60 per cent capacity factor.

    The remaining 16 engines will serve peak load

    with an expected 40 per cent capacity factor.

    Notwithstanding this operating pattern,

    the entire plant is capable of being operated

    at any load depending on Jordans needs.

    IPP3 will be an excellent catcher of load

    peaks due to its high part-load performance

    and its ability to dispatch with zero penalties,

    enabling existing turbine plants to operate

    their baseload at higher efficiency.

    As a baseload plant, IPP3 benefits from

    IPP3 spearheads Jordan towards self sufficiency

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    9/60For more information, enter 4 at pei.hotims.com

    METKA is a leading EPC (Engineering-Procurement-Con-

    struction) contractor for large-scale power generation plants,

    well-known for its ability to reliably deliver complex projects

    throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, often on very

    demanding project schedules.

    The company has significant experience in gas turbine based

    power generation, including combined cycle, co-generation and

    simple cycle technology, providing world-class solutions and

    optimal performance.

    Strong project management skills, together with a complete

    range of functional expertise and understanding of international

    markets, give METKA the advantage in meeting customer needs.

    The company excels in fast-track execution, bringing critically

    needed power to growing markets.

    With over 50 years of experience, METKA is a reliable partner

    for utilities, independent power plant developers and local

    communities around the world.

    E N E R G Y

    www.metka.com

    Over 6.5GW of natural gas fired plant capacity

    is currently under execution by METKA,

    in 5 different countries

    Empoweringthe future

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    10/608 www.PowerEngineeringInt.comPower Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Middle East Project Focus

    being fitted with a nitrogen oxides (NOx)

    control system for abating emissions, meeting

    strict environmental health and safety

    guidelines set by the International Finance

    Corporation.

    Besides NOx regulations, IPP3 follows

    international requirements for sulphur oxides

    and particular matter and will have a close-

    to-zero usage of water once gas is employed

    as fuel, minimizing its environmental footprint.

    In addition to gaining the acclaimed title

    of largest internal combustion engine (ICE)power plant in the world, IPP3 is also the first

    and only facility of its kind in the Middle East.

    The plant represents a step change in

    Jordans application of gas technology

    solutions. Before IPP3, Jordans utility

    professionals had never contemplated the

    installation of an ICE plant, preferring to

    generate baseload power through combined-

    cycle gas turbine facilities, with the option to

    create flexibility through part-loading when

    required.

    Although CCGTs continue to be heavily

    marketed in Jordan, ICEs are advantageous

    for three key reasons. Firstly, Jordan has no

    load-following power plants capable of

    starting in less than ten minutes and meeting

    demand exactly as required, a particular issue

    in a country that experiences huge differences

    in demand between winter and summer.

    Secondly, the limited flexibility possible

    through part-loading has proved particularly

    costly over the last five years, due to Jordans

    inherent need to rely on imported gas from

    Egypt, where supplies have been disruptedby political instability. The result of this is that

    Jordan has often used expensive diesel to run

    its plants when sufficient gas is not available.

    Not only is the up-front cost of diesel more

    expensive, but the fuel is also less efficient

    than gas when operated at part-load, further

    adding to fuel costs.

    Thirdly, amid concern over imported

    supplies, Jordan will require energy from up to

    400 MW of renewables and a variety of local

    reserves to realize its 2020 vision, meaning

    flexibility to back up intermittent wind and

    solar and generate baseload power from a

    range of fuels will be of critical importance.

    Despite these notable benefits, IPP3 only

    received the green light after a thoroughmarket analysis provided by Wrtsil, as well

    as a further study undertaken by NEPCO to

    rigorously assess how advantageous an ICE

    plant would be in comparison to a CCGT.

    At the time, CCGTs were so heavily

    integrated into the Jordanian energy

    industry that local environmental regulations

    supported its installation, and had to be

    amended at ministerial level to support ICEs

    a move that went against environmental

    norms in the region.

    The plant serves as a great example of

    outstanding collaboration and compromise:

    the co-operation between Wrtsil and

    its affiliates has allowed for a competitive

    engineering, procurement and construction

    price for the plant, an efficient bidding process

    and a shorter gestation period from start to

    finish.

    The first 16 peak load-bearing engines

    were operational in as little as 16 months, while

    the entire plant will be up and running in no

    more than 24 months after the Limited Notice

    to Proceed.

    Until 2015, IPP3 will run on heavy fuel oilbefore transitioning to natural gas supplied

    by a new LNG unit in Aqaba. The project will

    serve as a flagship example of how prejudices

    against internal combustion engines can

    be broken, even amid strong support for

    CCGTs, by demonstrating the advantages

    the technology can bring to those striving

    for energy independence or a generation

    portfolio with a high penetration of renewable

    energy.

    Contributed by Wrtsil.

    Artists impression of IPP3

    Credit: Wrtsil

    Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction

    secured the EPC contract to build the

    2800 MW Rabigh thermal power plant from

    Saudi Arabias state-backed power supplier

    Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) in September

    2010.

    Worth some $3.44 billion, the project

    constitutes the largest single project for power

    plant construction that a Korean company

    has ever secured overseas. Doosan Heavy

    emerged as the single EPC contractor, winning

    the order over stiff competition from Siemens,

    Alstom and Mitsubishi and thereby setting

    a precedent for the recognition of Korean

    expertise in plant exports to Saudi Arabia.

    Rabigh is Saudi Arabias single largest

    construction site. It is located some

    150 km north of Jeddah on the Red Sea

    coast. Construction of the plant will be

    completed over six stages. When all stages are

    finished, its total generation capacity will be

    2800 MW, produced by four individual units,

    each with a 700 MW capacity. Doosans scope

    as EPC contractor includes everything from

    engineering to procurement, manufacturing,

    installation and operational testing and

    commissioning.

    By 2016, Saudi Arabias electric power

    consumption is expected to reach

    309,100 GWh triple 2000s rate of

    consumption. Rabigh will play a vital role in

    providing the expanded electricity capacity

    to meet this demand. In particular, the project

    Rabigh: Powering Saudi Arabias future generation

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    Gas turbine performance

    has traditionally been

    evaluated in terms of

    thermal efficiency, but

    in determining overall

    performance, operators

    also evaluate availability, reliability, flexibility

    and, above all, profitability.

    The earliest commercial gas turbineengines were used to power aircraft during

    the 1940s and it was another 20 years before

    gas turbines became established in the

    electricity generating fleet.

    In the early 1960s, grid disturbances led

    to electricity blackouts across the southeast

    of England. With load growth predicted, the

    Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB)

    decided to deploy fast start aero engines

    as gas turbine generators. A demonstration

    engine at Hams Hall power station in 1964 was

    followed by a major installation programme.

    Across the Atlantic on a November night in

    1965, a cascading voltage collapse blacked

    out nearly one third of the population of

    the northeastern US. This led the countrys

    electricity industry to call on aircraft engine

    makers to provide small, rapid-start generators

    that could be deployed across the grid.

    There has been continuous development

    in gas turbine technology since then and

    their use in power generation has increased

    rapidly. Gas turbines are now one of the most

    widely-used power generating technologies.Turbines have become larger, with better

    thermal efficiency, able to operate at higher

    temperatures and pressures. New plant can

    be constructed relatively quickly, but high

    operating costs and lack of operational

    flexibility are areas where operators seek

    improvements.

    Turbines used in gas-fuelled generation

    are sophisticated and complex machines.

    The compressor draws in air, pressurizes it,

    and feeds it to the combustion chamber at

    high speed. The combustion system injects

    a steady stream of fuel into combustion

    chambers where it mixes with the air and

    burns at high temperature to produce a

    hot, high pressure gas stream. As this passes

    through the turbine section it expands

    and spins the rotating blades which turn

    a generator to produce electricity. The

    combustion gas is also used to drive the

    compressor.

    Heat from the exhaust gas can be

    recovered and used in a combined-cycle

    configuration. The combined cycle ismore thermally efficient but operational

    limitations include longer start-up time, purge

    requirements to prevent fires or explosions,

    and the need for a phased ramp-up to full

    load.

    Increased efficiency has been the

    traditional goal in designing and operating

    gas turbines. ERA Technology gas turbine

    consultant Siavash Pahlavanyali reflects:

    Over the last 30 to 40 years the trend has

    been steady improvements in the thermal

    efficiency of gas turbines. Thirty years ago,

    E Class turbines operating in single shaft,

    single cycle had thermal efficiency rates of

    30-32 per cent, which has now increased

    Gas turbines

    Modern gas turbines are proving to be the fossil-fuel technology of choice, offeringlower emissions than other hydrocarbons and operational flexibility. However, they

    are expensive to run and to maintain. Penny Hitchinexplores how operators rise tothe challenge of getting the best out of their machines

    Measuring the radial gab of a gas turbine

    Credit: Siemens

    16 Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014 www.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    Pushing theefficiency envelope

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    20/6018 www.PowerEngineeringInt.comPower Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Gas turbines

    towards 37-38 per cent. In combined-cycle

    operation, the rate has moved up from 50 per

    cent to nearer 60 per cent.

    He cautions: Pushing the efficiencyhigher may compromise the integrity and

    design margin.

    Continuing R&D will see the trajectory of

    improved thermal efficiency continue. Alap

    Shah, turbine technologies manager at Black

    &Veatch, expects combined-cycle efficiency

    to increase towards 65 per cent in the next

    10-15 years if economic and environmental

    drivers continue to push the industry.

    He says: Gas turbines of the future will

    have higher firing temperatures, better

    sealing technology and air cooling for hot

    gas path cooling, rather than steam cooling,

    increasing operational flexibility. Firing

    temperature limitations are based on the

    material technology and metallurgy.

    The trend in the last ten years is for turbine

    manufacturers to offer higher temperatures

    on their products. Other contributions to

    efficiency will come from increased steam

    temperatures and pressure of the bottoming

    cycle.

    Manufacturers offer customers upgrade

    packages to improve output, as well as long-

    term service and maintenance agreementsfor their components and systems. A typical

    upgrade package for an F Class machine

    might include improved blade aerodynamics,

    better sealing, advanced materials and

    improved cooling technologies to allow

    higher operating temperatures.

    Mike Salvatore, Siemens technical

    marketing manager of gas turbine

    modernizations for the Americas, explains:

    Upgrades are driven by customers need tomaintain competitiveness in the marketplace.

    We evolve products and services to provide

    greater capacity and improved efficiency

    and we offer products to improve operating

    flexibility.

    Advanced technology

    Operators of turbines installed in the late 1990s

    and early 2000s are looking to the OEMs for

    possible upgrades. Salvatore says: When we

    assess what our customers need we pull from

    our newer, more advanced technology and

    apply it to the more mature fleet. This means

    taking advantage of our native knowledge,

    improved materials, better cooling schemes,

    more sophisticated gas turbine control system

    technology and retrofitting them.

    Upgrading is a constant refreshing of

    the more mature technology that is 10-15

    years old. A lot of users of older equipment

    are trying to operate them like brand new

    technology. They want large capacity

    improvements, efficiency, fast starting ability,

    fast start acceleration and oftentimes this is

    prohibitive because it could require capitalchanges to the equipment.

    He expands: We can help by making

    improvements to the existing configuration;

    we can implement the latest technology in

    terms of modernizations and upgrades of the

    components, thereby resulting in improved

    performance levels and reliability.

    Our customers are pushing for these

    upgrades, as replacing their older

    equipment may not be feasible

    in the short term. As the

    OEM with the most specificexpertise on our products,

    we work closely with owner-

    operators to enhance the

    asset value of their existing

    equipment.

    Third party specialists can

    advise on how to fine-tune

    and get the best from systems.

    Upgrading the gas turbine may

    necessitate work on the balance of

    plant, and involving a third party in

    the upgrade can be advantageous.

    Shah explains: We have been involved

    in several combined cycle upgrades where

    OEMs offered several gas turbine upgrade

    packages to the owner and the owner hired

    us to evaluate these options in conjunction

    with the HRSG, steam turbine and balance of

    plant equipment to find a sweet spot in termsof overall plant performance upgrade. In that

    role we take the upgraded performance from

    the turbine supplier and we integrate that

    with the overall plant thermodynamic model.

    With the help of this integrated model,

    we study and evaluate the equipment such

    as HRSG, steam turbine and boiler feed

    pumps, and systems such as high pressure

    and reheat steam, boiler feed system etc. We

    perform a debottlenecking study to find the

    constraint and upgrade that equipment or

    system if it makes economic sense.

    Upgrades are expensive and an

    understanding of the current and future

    operating requirements of the plant is

    necessary in deciding what improvements

    are appropriate. Shah says that bigger

    CTG upgrades are not always better for the

    combined cycle plant.

    Pahlavanyali points out: I see clients who

    pay to get very advanced coatings on their

    blades. But if the machine runs at 80 per cent

    of base load for most of the time, it means it

    has not been operating efficiently. In which

    case that upgrade does not make sense.

    Extending maintenance intervals

    All OEMs recommend specific inspection

    and service intervals, but as condition-based

    monitoring becomes more sophisticated,

    operators may be able to extend these

    intervals, giving greater availability and

    profitability.

    Black & Veatchs Shah explains: As

    manufacturers get more information and

    experience from their operating fleet, they

    can reduce margins and be more aggressivein allowing turbines to operate for longer

    times between maintenance intervals.

    Maintenance intervals for hot gas path

    inspection have typically increased from

    24,000 hours to 33,000 hours, while the

    interval for major inspection is up from

    48,000 hours to 66,000 hours.

    Shah says: The time to be considering an

    upgrade is when a major overhaul is needed.

    For example, a rotor inspection will come at

    100,000 hours. Replacing an existing rotor

    might cost up to $10 million. This is the logical

    time for thinking about an upgrade.

    Flexibility, the ability to start and stop

    frequently and rapidly, is important where gas

    MAN Diesel & Turbo has realized single digitNOx values in the load range between 50 and

    100 per cent by optimizing its Advanced CanCombustors (ACC) on a MGT 6100, the single-shaft version of the new MGT gas turbine.Credit: MAN Diesel & Turbo

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    Gas turbines

    Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Pahlavanyali says: That is not always

    sufficient: the manual is the same wherever

    you are operating your machine, but

    operating in the desert or by the coast

    means there may be differences.

    He believes that by paying more attention

    to condition monitoring and condition

    assessment of components, operators

    may be able to safely extend operational

    inspection intervals by condition. How can

    operators determine this?

    A gas turbine includes a lot of monitoringtools. Measurements of temperature, pressure,

    vibration, oil quality and other factors are

    recorded and can be used to improve

    understanding of the machines condition.

    Sharing the operational data with the

    OEM or with third party experts can help

    analysis. More information can be gained

    from visual inspection during maintenance.

    An inspection engineer carrying out visual

    inspection and looking at records would

    be able to determine the likely condition

    of components such as blades and thenadvise whether the blades need repair or

    can remain in service.

    Blades can be removed and tested to

    establish if the blade can remain in service, if

    it needs recoating or if it should be scrapped.

    Pahlavanyali explains: We have looked

    at hundreds of turbine blades in the last

    20 years. In many cases the nominal design

    life was finished and the operator replaced

    the component, but often they could extend

    the life.

    We carry out a lot of tests and, if the

    result is that they can put the blade back

    into operation for another 24,000 hours

    without any problem, this almost doubles the

    design life. With blades costing from 200,000

    to 2 million ($336,000 to $3.4 million) this

    represents a lot of money.

    The same approach can be applied to

    other components and processes. While the

    OEM may recommend offline compressor

    washing every two months, Pahlavanyal

    says: In my experience compressor washing

    intervals should be based on the condition

    of the machine. The recommendation is to

    base it on the amount of drop in pressure,

    but I think the best tool is experience. Anytime there is a sign of degradation material

    degradation or performance degradation

    then wash the compressor (online or offline)

    to take it back to normal.

    Reducing emissions

    One of the challenges of flexible use of gas

    turbines to back up renewable sources of

    power generation is that part-load operation

    could significantly increase emissions.

    Operating gas turbines at low loads may lead

    to significantly higher levels of CO2and NOxgases.

    Emissions increase during the low-load

    phases of combined-cycle plants to allow

    the rest of the plant to operate safely for the

    desired heat level.

    MAN Diesel & Turbo, which makes a

    range of small gas turbines designed for

    use in industry as mechanical drives for, e.g.,

    compressors or for decentralized electricity

    generators, has substantially reduced the

    NOx emissions of its MGT gas turbines for a

    wide operating range down to very low part

    load operation by refining the combustion

    chamber design and using premix

    technology.

    Dr Sven-Hendrik Wiers, vice-president gas

    turbines, explains: We achieved single-digit

    NOx by designing a new state-of-the-art

    combustion chamber for our new turbine.The reduction in NOx emissions to single

    digits (in parts per million) is aided by using an

    advanced can combuster to homogeneously

    premix the fuel with the combustion air before

    it enters the combustion chamber. The pre-

    mixing eliminates fuel-rich hot streaks, which

    significantly reduces NOX gases.

    Wiers says: The ambition was to have a

    very efficient gas turbine. Efficiency is about

    improving compression of air, improving

    sealing technology, improving hot gas part

    lifetime, improving cooling technology and

    optimizing turbine inlet temperature levels.

    We applied modern, available design

    tools to improve the efficiency of compressor

    and turbine, and then to achieve perfect

    matching of turbine and compressor.

    We adopted jet engine secondary flow

    technology as the front runner in gas turbine

    design methodologies in turbines.

    We applied the philosophy of jet engines

    to improve our sealing technology where

    possible.

    Long-term competitivenessModern gas turbines are proving to be

    the fossil-fuel technology of choice offering

    lower emissions than other hydrocarbons,

    operational flexibility, and the potential for

    high cycling and peaking, fast startups and

    load ramps.

    However, they are expensive to run and

    to maintain and operators seek the best

    upgrade and maintenance solutions from

    OEMs and third parties.

    Saa Ovcar of gas turbine specialist

    Inspiro calculates that for a typical CCGTplant with plant efficiencies of over 50 per

    cent, maintenance costs may represent up to

    half of the total cost of electricity production.

    As he says, It is therefore of highest

    importance for a power plants long-term

    competitiveness to consider all available

    options to reducing these costs. That is the

    challenge facing gas turbine operators and

    manufacturers alike.

    Penny Hitchin is a journalist focusing on

    energy matters.

    Visit www.PowerEngineeringInt.comfor more informationi

    The new MGT 6100 single-shaft gas turbine before being put through its paceson the test bench in Oberhausen, Germany

    Credit: MAN Diesel & Turbo

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    When it comes to

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    make a proper evaluation of the offers they

    receive ideally on as much of a level playing

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    To ensure that this is met, at least from

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    out in great detail all aspects pertaining to

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    They will take great care to ensure that the

    bidders ensure that all pertinent standards

    and permits that the contractor(s) must

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    As is the norm, the customers will then seek

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    guarantees against which liquidated

    damages or penalties for failure to achieve

    will be levied upon the contractor(s).

    Gas-fired plants

    Some key techno-economic aspects areoften overlooked whentrying to decide on theright technology for agas-fired power project,yet they can play asignificant part in theoverall long-term lifecycle

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    Credit: Dreamstime

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    Gas-fired plants

    Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    These main EPC commercial guarantees

    are:

    O Fixed & firm contract price: to be binding

    upon the EPC bidder for the validity periodof its offer;

    O Payment terms;

    O Delivery guarantee: namely the contractual

    time from NTP (notice to proceed) to COD

    (commercial operation date);

    O Performance guarantee: the 100 per cent

    baseload power output and heat rate

    for the plant (and possibly certain part-

    load performances) for specific design

    condition(s).

    In addition, the EPC bidders will also have

    to provide emission guarantee(s) as required

    by the specific environment permit for the

    project, covering the gaseous (e.g. ,NOx, CO)

    and liquid emissions.

    The EPC price, payment terms, delivery

    and performance guarantees are key inputs

    needed for the techno-commercial (bid)

    evaluation.

    However, in order for the customers and

    consultants to make a complete and proper

    evaluation, there is additional key information

    required from the EPC bidders, namely:

    O Plant maintenance costs: typically

    customers will focus on the gas turbine

    unit(s), being the most cost-intensive

    component in such gas-fired power plants;

    O Availability assurance: to allow the customer

    to make some allowance/prediction for

    forced and scheduled outages;

    O Plant performance degradation: typically

    being with respect to the plant power

    output and heat rate deterioration versus

    operational time due to plant wear and

    fouling.

    These last three items, however, are

    typically covered under some sort of

    separate service agreement offering from

    the bidders rather than being part of the EPC

    bids, as these guarantees pertain specificallyto the operational phase rather than the

    construction phase.

    To these key inputs we can also add the

    customers own project development costs,

    the projects financing costs for the EPC

    phase, fuel and water costs, electricity sales

    revenue, steam/water/heat production

    revenues (if a cogeneration project) and

    realistic operating regimes.

    With all of these factors together, the

    customer can now undertake a lifecycle

    analysis in order to determine which offer

    provides the best cost of electricity (CoE)

    and/or net present value (NPV)/internal rate

    of return (IRR).

    This all sounds fairly straightforward until

    the customers come to try and make their

    comparison/evaluation and establish that

    each of the EPC bidders and/or OEMs have

    their own maintenance philosophies and/or

    performance testing methodologies.

    Indeed, the following important aspects

    applicable to all gas-fired power plants

    which can have significant impact on

    lifecycle analyses are often not given the

    due attention they deserve.

    New & clean definition

    From the moment of first-firing, the performance

    of the gas turbine/plant starts to degrade,

    with the greatest performance loss being seen

    in the first few thousand operating hours.

    So, if the EPC contractors performance

    guarantees are based on a new & clean

    definition that presumes something possibly

    in the order of 500-1000 equivalent operating

    hours, but then finally during the construction

    phase maybe something on the order of

    several thousand commissioning equivalent

    operating hours is actually accumulated, theEPC contractor will adjust the guaranteed

    performance downwards.

    If customers instead take the lead

    by actually stipulating in their project

    specifications/request for quotations

    (RfQs) the to be presumed number

    of commissioning hours, number of

    commissioning starts and number of

    commissioning trips based on industry

    averages/experience, then in this way the

    bidders would have a common basis (to go

    with the other design conditions) on which

    to calculate their respective commissioning

    equivalent operating hours and, in turn,

    their respective new & clean performance

    guarantees.

    The benefits of this approach are threefold:

    O All bidders would have the same

    conditions for the purpose of calculating

    their respective new & clean plant

    performance guarantees, thereby putting

    them more on a like-for-like basis for

    comparison purposes;

    O Customers would face fewer instances

    of having to come to terms with the fact

    that, due to one reason or another, the

    actual commissioning EOH ends up much

    higher than considered in the contract,

    resulting in the performance guarantees

    being corrected downwards, i.e., worse

    than expected which plays out not in

    customers favour;

    O If the bidders are, in the end, able to

    actually complete the commissioning

    phase with less EOH than presumed by

    customers specifications/RfQs, then this

    would just mean that the performancebasis for the purpose of the guarantees

    would be higher (better) - which this time

    plays out in the customers favour.

    Realistic plant degradation

    It is also important for the purpose of carrying

    out a sensible lifecycle analysis to consider

    the realistic performance degradation to be

    expected over the financial lifespan of the

    project depending on technology choice,

    site environmental/climatic conditions, fuel

    choice, and probable operating regime(s)

    that consider the number of start/stops,

    seasonal load patterns, etc.

    Here, customers should request that the

    Riyadh gas fired plant

    Credit: Alstom

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    Gas-fired plants

    Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    bidders provide, as part of their offers, plant

    output and heat rate degradation plots

    against EOH.

    These plots should be such that thebidders would be prepared to stand behind

    them from a guarantee viewpoint if required,

    linked to some form of suitable long-term

    service contract.

    The extent of performance dropoff

    (degradation) as well as the degree of

    performance recovery expected at each

    major inspection would vary from one

    bidder/gas turbine technology to another

    based on each bidders assessment

    of realistic degradation for the specific

    conditions pertaining to a specific project.

    This degradation plot will also have a

    commercial assessment on the part of

    the bidders, who will be wanting to project

    something that, on one hand, could be

    considered sensible/realistic, but at same

    time is likely to still be competitive versus other

    bidders/technologies.

    Customers would therefore be wise to

    request that bidders submit their performance

    degradation plots over a reasonable time

    frame, such as the financial or technical

    design life, and not just for the first or second

    major inspection time frames.

    The benefits of this approach are threefold:customers have something that they can

    use in their evaluation/life-cycle analysis to

    compare the different bidders/gas turbine

    technologies; customers are considering

    a plant performance forecast that is

    considered to be realistic by the bidders for

    their respective gas turbine technologies;

    and, if required, customers have a plant

    performance forecast that could be used for

    the purposes of establishing guarantees, if

    required, linked with some form of long-term

    service contract.

    True cost risks

    It is during the bid phase that customers are in

    the best position to determine whatever they

    need to know, have tied down and agreed

    with their selected contractor(s).

    As mentioned at the start of this article, too

    often customers do not give the right amount

    of attention to the long-term operational

    phase.

    They may make some very simple

    presumptions regarding the expected

    operating regime, or presume that all of

    the gas turbine technologies are effectivelythe same when it comes to considering and

    comparing running costs and maintenance

    regimes.

    Again, if customers only look as far out

    as the first or second major gas turbine

    inspection interval regarding turbine/plant

    running costs, the customers may not pick

    up some specific maintenance requirement

    that could have financial impacts over and

    above those considered.

    On the other hand, it is also understandable

    that customers would like to limit any long-

    term service contract to a reasonable time

    frame that, on one side, covers the early

    operational phase when a plant is expected

    to have the highest operational issues, and,

    on the other side, is short enough to allow

    them the ability to reconsider their O&M

    positions once they have accumulated some

    operational experience with the selected

    turbine/plant technology.

    However, the bid phase is the best period

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    Gas-fired plants

    for customers to ask and find out. It therefore

    makes sense, at least during the bid phase, to

    request that the bidders provide their running

    (maintenance) cost projections for their

    respective turbine/plant technologies over

    a long time period, say 20-25 years from the

    start of commercial service, so that, again, a

    proper lifecycle analysis can be undertaken

    for comparison purposes.

    Then they would finally decide on what

    is considered from their standpoint to be

    the preferred, most probably shorter (six to

    ten years) time frame for any actual long-

    term service agreement with the selected

    contractors/OEMs.

    There are three key benefits of this

    approach.

    Firstly, by looking to a long time period of,

    say, 20-25 years, then any and all additional

    major service work that might be required ona specific turbine or plant technology, which

    could have additional cost and/or outage

    time impacts, should be picked up on the

    pre-contract phase radar (examples could

    be compressor overhauls, rotor overhauls

    and lifetime extensions).

    Secondly, customers are able to undertake

    more realistic/sensible lifecycle analysis

    in order to better compare the respective

    bidders and technologies before making a

    final decision.

    Thirdly, customers have a more

    comprehensive picture of the long-term

    running costs pertaining to the different

    technologies under consideration for their

    projects.

    Even if any possible additional major

    service work is projected or expected to

    take place a long way out, such that on

    a PV basis the financial impact may be

    considered unimportant, again, it is better

    on the customer side to ask the questions at

    the bid phase and be informed than to find

    out only later during the operational phase,

    when it may be too late to argue the case.

    Plant Reliability

    It is standard industry practice for the

    bidders to provide the plant reliability and/or

    availability data for their respective turbine/

    plant technologies on the basis of 8760 period

    hours (8784 in a leap year).

    Although this can make sense when it

    comes to availability, it can pose an issue

    when considering reliability.Firstly, let us recap the normal definition

    or understanding of plant reliability and

    availability. Reliability is generally taken as

    being the difference between the period

    hours considered and the actual delivered

    operational hours for the covered scope

    in that period, resulting from unscheduled

    curtailments.

    Availability, on the other hand, considers

    not just forced outages and de-rates, but also

    any and all scheduled (planned) outages in

    the same period, namely:

    A power plant can, by definition, be

    100 per cent available, even if not actually

    operating, simply by way of the power

    company declaring it as being available.

    So to consider the 8760 period hours in a

    year time frame is both reasonable and

    understandable. Reliability, on the other hand,is something that is more usually associated

    with actual operational performance.

    Although the OEMs/bidders consider the

    8760 period hours for setting their reliability

    values, reliability can change dramatically

    for differing service factors, as shown in

    Figure 3 (left).

    The 8760 period hours time frame

    represents an ideal case.

    In reality, a power plant would not operate

    constantly during this time, but would

    instead be shut down when not required by

    the grid and/or when it is time for scheduled

    maintenance work to be undertaken.

    In Figure 3, we see that for the annual

    8760 hours, a 98 per cent reliability factor

    equates to around 175 hours of forced

    unavailability.

    If this same 175 hours of forced

    unavailability is witnessed on a power plant

    that has, perhaps, a service factor of only

    around 70 per cent (equating to around

    6130 period hours) then the plants reliability

    would in fact be around 97 per cent (i.e.,

    1 per cent less), and for a service factor of

    just around 50 per cent (equating to around

    4380 period hours) this would be around

    96 per cent (i.e., 2 cer cent less).

    For such scenarios, customers might

    wish to consider applying a weighting

    factor, whereby they require high

    reliability/availability factors from the plant

    during high-demand periods in the year,

    but are prepared to consider some

    reasonable relaxation during the non-critical

    periods.

    By paying attention to the importanttechno-economic matters outlined in this

    article at the specification/request for

    quotation stage, customers can make a

    much more informed and comprehensive

    assessment and evaluation at the bid

    phase.

    Mark Stevens is director and principal

    consultant at SS&A Power Consultancy in

    Switzerland. [email protected].

    www.sss-power.com

    Visit www.PowerEngineeringInt.comfor more informationi

    Relative Plant Reliability vs. Operational Hours

    Operational Hours per Year

    3760 4260 4760 5260 5760 6260 6760 7260 7760 8260 8760

    95.20%

    95.40%

    95.60%

    95.80%

    96.00%

    96.20%

    96.40%

    96.60%

    96.80%

    97.00%

    97.20%

    97.40%

    97.60%

    97.80%

    98.00%

    98.20%

    Figure 3: Relative Plant Reliability (for 175.2 hours forced non-availability)

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    R

    enewable energy is playing a

    crucial role as the UK remains

    on course to transition to a low

    carbon energy supply and meet

    its carbon reduction targets.

    Renewable energy now

    accounts for 15 per cent of the electricity

    generated in the UK double the amount

    supplied in 2010. And, unsurprisingly for a

    country boasting Europes longest coastline

    and best offshore wind conditions, the

    offshore wind sector is one of the most

    fascinating threads in this great success story.

    The total offshore generating capacity in

    UK waters provides around 8 TWh of electricity

    annually, equivalent to the electricity

    consumption of around two million homes. In

    the first quarter of this year, output grew by

    over 50 per cent to 4.4 TWh when compared

    to the first quarter of 2013.According to a report from the

    Department of Energy and Climate Change

    (DECC) published in July, called Delivering

    UK Energy Investment, The UK is the clear

    world leader in offshore wind and has more

    installed capacity (3.8 GW) than any other

    country, supporting 18,300 jobs. By 2020 we

    could see capacity reach 10 GW, enough to

    power almost seven million homes.

    This is all very good news for the UK, which

    is bracing itself to lose around a quarter of

    its current generating capacity by the end

    of this decade as existing coal-fired power

    stations are retired, through age or inability

    to meet tough carbon reduction targets. And

    more than 50 per cent of current capacity will

    be retired by 2030.

    The UK government reaffirmed its support

    for the future role of the technology when five

    of the eight support contracts it awarded in

    April this year were for offshore wind farms. The

    contracts three of which were for projects

    in which Dong Energy has an interest will

    provide production-based financial support

    for the first 15 years that these wind farms are

    in operation.

    With such government support available,

    you might think that the offshore wind

    industry is about to rest on its laurels and get

    a little complacent. However, youd be wide

    of the mark.

    Though weve made considerable

    progress so far, there is a huge job still to be

    done if offshore wind is to maintain its pace of

    growth and compete without subsidy againstother generation sources in the next decade.

    DECC recognizes this issue in their new

    energy investment report: We believe offshore

    wind will be key for expanding renewable

    electricity generation in the next decade, so

    its important to drive costs down now.

    The cost of electricity is the offshore wind

    industrys new battleground. At around

    160/MWh, the cost of electricity generated

    from future offshore wind farms has to come

    down. The industry has known this and has

    been on the case for some time.

    The Offshore Wind Industry Council

    (OWIC) also has cost reduction very much

    in its sights. OWICs role, as a strategic

    Renewables cost reduction

    If offshore wind is to maintain its pace of growth and compete without subsidy

    against other generation sources, then the cost of electricity generated from futureprojects has to come down, writes Benj Sykesof Dong Energy

    Offshore windsnew battleground

    Credit: London Array

    28 Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014 www.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    Benj Sykes

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    Three months before the fall of

    Iraqs second largest city, Mosul, to

    the Islamic State (IS), formerly the

    Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS),

    I was invited to present a paper on

    the future of Iraqs electricity sector

    at an energy conference in Dubai. Iraqs

    Minister of Electricity Abdul Kareem Aftan and

    many senior officials were among the invitees.

    In his opening statement, the minister

    conveyed the optimistic message that Iraqis

    will finally benefit from 24 hours of electricitysupply by the end of 2014. He also revealed an

    ambitious plan to launch investment projects

    for international firms to boost Iraqs electricity

    generation capacity to meet future demand.

    Some additional 8000 MW were planned

    to come online this year, with the expectation

    that generation capacity would reach

    20,000 MW by the end of 2015. But the recent

    development in Mosul was a major blow to the

    ministrys plan, with the fear that the country is

    heading toward another sectarian war at the

    bleeding heart of the ongoing conflict among

    Sunni and Shiite factions.

    No doubt the fall of Mosul and other

    Sunni provinces will further erode the already

    weak central government authority and

    put the country once again on the brink of

    internal conflict, with an enormous impact

    on the economy. The oil export has already

    been affected through the north pipeline

    due to the military operations, and worsened

    after KRGs Peshmerga forces stepped in

    and occupied Kirkuk, the city with large oil

    reserves, in an attempt to stop the insurgents

    who swiftly took control of the neighbouring

    cities of Tikrit and Mosul.

    The conflict between the centralgovernment and KRG over Kirkuk is not new,

    but seizing control of production facilities

    at Bai Hassan and Kirkuk oilfields, which

    produce more than 400,000 barrels per

    day, has deteriorated relations between

    the two sides, leading to speculation about

    the declaration of an independent Kurdish

    state.

    Economic deadlock

    During the last four decades, Iraq has gone

    through three wars, periods of civil unrest and

    economic sanctions which had devastating

    consequences on the future and life of

    its people, including lack of security, high

    Regional profile: Iraq

    Just as it was beginningto recover its optimismafter years of war, Iraqsenergy sector has beenderailed by the advanceof IS across the country.The nations ambitiousplans have been dealt amajor blow, writes Harry

    Istepanian

    IS fighters have launched attacks on the power plant in Bayji

    Credit: Jim Gordan, USACE

    32 Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014 www.PowerEngineeringInt.com

    Iraqs electricity:from crisis to ISIS

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    For queries relating to the

    conference, please contact:

    POWER-GEN Russia:

    Emily Pryor

    Conference Manager

    T: +44 1992 656 614

    E: [email protected]

    HydroVision Russia:

    Mathilde Sueur

    Senior Conference Manager

    T: +44 1992 656 634

    E: [email protected]

    For information on exhibiting and

    sponsorship, please contact:

    POWER-GEN Russia:

    Gilbert Weir Jnr

    Sales ManagerT: +44 (0)1992 65 6 617

    F: +44 (0)1992 656 700

    E: [email protected]

    Svetlana Strukova

    T: +7 495 249 49 15

    F: +7 495 249 49 15

    E: [email protected]

    HydroVision Russia:

    Amanda Kevan

    T: +44 (0) 1992 656 645

    F: +44 (0) 1992 656 700

    E: [email protected]

    POWER-GEN Russia (formerly Russia Power), co-located with HydroVision Russia, provides an ideal settingto explore business opportunities, meet new partners, suppliers and the industrys most influential decision-makers. The combined 2014 event combined attracted over 5,000 attendees from over 50 countries.

    Featuring a busy exhibition floor with the pre-eminent organisations from the Russian and internationalenergy sector, POWER-GEN Russia and HydroVision Russia offers excellent networking opportunities.

    WHY YOU SHOULD EXHIBIT IN 2015

    from the industry, for the industry. For further information on exhibiting please contact your localsales representative.

    INVITATION TO PARTICIPATE

    REGISTER NOW TO ATTEND RUSSIAS PREMIER POWER EVENT

    POWER-GEN Russia and HydroVision Russia is now open for Registration! Make sure

    you register, attend, learn and network with high-level executives, professionals and

    other leading decision-makers in the industry.

    For information on registration pricing and how to register, please visit:

    www.powergen-russia.comor www.hydrovision-russia.com.

    Conference & Exhibition

    3 - 5 March 2015

    Expocentre, Moscow, Russian Federationwww.powergen-russia.com| www.hydrovision-russia.com

    Owned and Produced by:

    Presented by:

    www.powergen-russia.com|www.hydrovision-russia.com

    PROVIDING ENERGY SOLUTIONS & INNOVATION

    For more information, enter 16 at pei.hotims.com

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    36/6034 www.PowerEngineeringInt.comPower Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Regional profile: Iraq

    unemployment and shattered infrastructure.

    According to the Foreign Policy Group, Iraq

    has ranked in the top 20 failed states for

    several consecutive years, trailing behind the

    Central African Republic and Zimbabwe.

    The electricity shortage has been one of

    its economic deadlocks for years. Persistent

    power cuts are still common almost everywhere

    in Iraq and constitute a major restraint on the

    countrys economic and social development.

    Iraqis have been getting frustrated with

    governments unfulfilled promises, and with

    having no more than eight hours a day of

    electricity despite billions of dollars spent over

    the past ten years. The cost to the economy

    from unserved electrical needs is estimated at

    about $40 billion per year.

    Iraqs socioeconomic development

    has remained below expectations despite

    the fact that its GDP has almost doubled

    ten times since 2003. Around eight million

    citizens (25 per cent of the population) are

    still living below the poverty line, on less than

    $2.2 per day. Iraqs economy continues to

    rely predominantly on exported oil, which

    generates more than 95 per cent of earnings.

    Over the last eight years the government

    of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has failed

    to evenly channel this huge oil income into

    economic and social development across

    the provinces, which are still suffering from the

    legacy of civil war and hobbled by political

    alienation and the marginalization of Sunni

    minorities.Despite the fact that more than

    $40 billion from the countrys oil revenue has

    been poured into the sector over the past

    ten years, many big projects that could have

    lit up the whole of Iraq have been delayed.

    Natural gas, which is one of the main sources

    of fuel for power generation, has remained

    unexploited due to lack of investment in the

    oil and gas sector. A recent study published

    in the Electricity Journal concludes that

    Iraqs demand for electricity is higher than

    the Ministry of Electricitys original estimate.

    The study expects that Iraq will require more

    than 60,000 MW of electricity by the end of

    2030, driven mainly by the increase in the

    population and GDP growth. It is envisaged

    that the gap between demand and supply

    is widening as a direct result of imprudent

    policies over the last three decades, which

    impeded the development of the sector

    and ultimately caused massive institutional

    and governance failure due to inefficient

    management.

    Maku Kahraba (no electricity) is a

    common idiom used by Iraqis to describepower cuts which became a regular feature

    of their lives, especially at peak times on

    Baghdads extreme summer days with

    outdoor temperatures reaching above 110F.

    For years Iraqis have been relying

    on expensive, noisy and polluting diesel

    generators to meet the shortfall. It is estimated

    that there are more than 5000 diesel

    generators in the streets of Baghdad alone.

    Some are provided by local councils to the

    Baghdad ashwaiyyat, or informal districts

    built illegally due to the influx of internallydisplaced refugees after the sectarian war

    in 20062008, which often do not receive

    public services from the municipalities. Fees

    for running private generators are hefty

    because of the high price of fuel on the black

    market. Weekly service fees range between

    $0.13/kWh and $0.33/kWh, on par with prices

    for electricity provided by the government

    at less than $0.1/kWh. It is unlikely that the

    government will be able to long sustain

    the subsidies to fill the gap between the

    cost of electricity and the tariff, due to dire

    financial burdens caused by the war on ISIS

    which is exacerbating an already stretched

    government budget.

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000

    18,000

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    1990

    Maximum Generation (MW) Maximum Demand (MW)

    Generation vs demand 1990 2013. Source: Iraq Ministry of Electricity

    BAMASCUS

    AL SAFIRA

    ALLEPO ASSAD LAKE

    ARRAQQ

    TABQA

    FALLUJA

    HADITHA

    RAWAHAKKAZ

    MOSUL

    ANAH

    KIRKUK

    SAMARAH

    HEMREEN

    BAIJI

    RAMADI MANSURIYA

    SADR-2

    BAGHDAD

    GALAHAD_DIN

    ISIS CONTROLLED AREAS

    ISIS PRESENCE

    CITIES UNDER ISIS CONTROL

    CONTESTED CITIES

    POWER PLANT

    POWER PLANT UNDER CONSTRUCTION

    ISIS electricity map. Credit: HH Istepanian

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  • 8/10/2019 Power egineering 2014 n09

    38/6036 www.PowerEngineeringInt.comPower Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Regional profile: Iraq

    provinces. However, it is unlikely that IS would

    risk sabotaging the Mosul dam for the time

    being as long as it is seizing the city of Mosul.

    During the US-led invasion, the US Army

    Corps of Engineers found the Mosul dam

    inherently unstable. Since then, the dam

    has been undergoing continuous pumping

    of grout deep into its base to prevent the

    structure from collapsing. Any disruption

    could breach the dam and have dire

    consequences within hours by flooding the

    city of Mosul, surrounding Nineveh plateau

    and drowning parts of Baghdad under

    15 feet of water.

    Out of the Syrian Desert

    The Syrian Desert, the traditional home of Arab

    Bedouin tribes, served as a major supply line

    for the Iraqi insurgents during the 2003 war. Tenyears later it became ISs primary stronghold,

    with headquarters in the city of ar Raqqa on

    the Euphrates River. In February 2013, IS took

    control of Tabqa (Thawrah) dam (824 MW),

    the largest hydroelectric dam in Syria, built in

    the 1970s with help from the Soviet Union. The

    dam is now providing electricity to areas that

    are in the hands of IS, including the contested

    city of Aleppo. Prior to taking over Tabqa dam,

    IS controlled two smaller facilities upriver,

    the Baath dam (81 MW), located 14 miles

    upstream from the city of ar Raqqa, and the

    Tishrin dam (630 MW), 50 miles south from the

    Syro-Turkish border. The battle for control of the

    dams has become an effective weapon in the

    Syrian civil war, offering the possibility to deny

    electricity to non-allegiant towns and cities.

    Turkey is also involved in a different kind

    of war: that of controlling hydroelectric

    resources. The Southeastern Anatolia

    Development Project (GAP in Turkish)

    involves the construction of 22 dams and

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    GDP (current Billions US$)

    GDP 2002 2014. Source: The World Bank

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    39/60www.PowerEngineeringInt.com 37

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    Power Engineering InternationalSeptember 2014

    Regional profile: Iraq

    19 hydroelectric power plants, with an

    installed capacity


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