+ All Categories
Home > Documents > power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

Date post: 30-May-2018
Category:
Upload: manpowerus
View: 213 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend

of 22

Transcript
  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    1/22

    1st Quarter 2005

    Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    2/22

    1

    Contents

    United States Employment Outlook 2

    Regional Comparisons

    Sector Comparisons

    Global Employment Outlook 14

    International Comparisons Americas

    International Comparisons Asia Pacific

    International Comparisons Europe

    About the Survey 19

    About Manpower 20

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    3/22

    2

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    The United States Employment Outlook

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont KnowNet Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    Adjusted

    % % % % % %

    1st Quarter 2005 24 10 59 7 14 21

    1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 14

    2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20

    3rd Quarter 2004 30 6 59 5 24 20

    4th Quarter 2004 28 7 60 5 21 20

    quarter of 2004. When seasonal variations are removed,

    however, the outlook for the first three months of 2005

    reveals that employer confidence is expected to inch

    upward from last quarter.

    Although the increase is by a very small margin, it

    represents the first time in three quarters that

    employers have indicated any change in their hiring

    intentions. The outlook for the coming quarter is much

    brighter than it was a year ago at this time. Employer

    confidence levels continue to rival those last seen in the

    beginning months of 2001.

    Throughout this report, we use the term Net

    Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking

    the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in

    hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage

    of employers that expect to see a decrease in

    employment at their location in the next quarter.

    Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with

    employers across the United States to measure

    anticipated employment trends between January and

    March 2005. All participants were asked, How do you

    anticipate total employment at your location to change

    in the three months to the end of March 2005 as

    compared to the current quarter?

    Twenty-four percent of the U.S. employers that were

    polled anticipate an increase in hiring activity for the first

    quarter of 2005, while 10% expect to decrease staff

    levels. Fifty-nine percent of employers surveyed foresee

    no change in job prospects, while 7% are unsure of

    their hiring plans.

    The surveys historical data show that the impact of

    seasonal variations is most apparent during the first

    quarter of the year. This explains why, without seasonal

    adjustments to the data, the Net Employment Outlook

    indicates a drop-off in hiring activity from the fourth

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    4/22

    3

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % %%%

    Construction 21 14 59 76 24

    Education 15 5 74 10 106

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 3 64 7 23 24

    Manufacturing Durables 28 9 57 6 19 23

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 24 8 62 6 2016

    Mining 27 6 63 4 2621

    Public Administration 17 7 66 10 1310

    Services 24 7 62 7 17 21

    Transportation & Public Utilities 25 7 61 7 18 20

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 23 17 54 6 6 23

    At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/ 0.8%.

    Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    Outlook Adjusted

    % % % %

    Midwest

    Northeast 21 10 61 8 11 18

    26 9 58 7 17 23

    21 11 64 4 10 19

    South

    West 26 10 55 9 16 22

    % %

    On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in five of the

    10 industry sectors surveyed plan to keep hiring activity

    relatively consistent with the final months of 2004. They

    include Durable Goods Manufacturing, Non-Durable

    Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services.

    Job prospects in Mining, Construction, Finance/

    Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration are

    expected to improve from fourth quarter, while Education

    employers plan to slightly decrease the hiring pace in

    the new year.

    Employers in all 10 industry sectors are more optimistic

    about hiring going into 2005 than they were approaching

    2004, especially those in Mining, Durable Goods

    Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/

    Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration.

    Hiring intentions across the four regions were decidedly

    more conservative last year at this time.

    The job forecast for the first quarter of 2005 is thestrongest in the South. Employer optimism in the

    Northeast trails the other three regions for the fourth

    consecutive quarter.

    Employment activity in two of the four U.S. regions

    the Northeast and the West is expected to stay the

    same in the beginning months of the new year as it

    was in the fourth quarter of 2004. Employers in the

    South plan a mild improvement in first quarter job

    prospects, while those in the Midwest anticipate a

    decline in payrolls, albeit on a very small scale.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    5/22

    4

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Regional Comparisons

    Midwest

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    %%%%% %

    All Industries 21 11 64 4 10 19

    Construction 12 19 65 4 -7 18

    Education 79 81 3 2 3

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 24 3 68 5 21 22

    Manufacturing Durables 29 9 58 4 20 24

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 23 9 63 5 14 19

    Mining 33 17 50 0 2716

    Public Administration 13 9 71 7 4 10

    Services 23 8 64 5 15 20

    Transportation & Public Utilities 22 687 3 15 18

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 18 18 60 4 0 22

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,

    South Dakota, Wisconsin.

    In the Midwest, 21% of employers surveyed anticipate

    an increase in payrolls for the first quarter of 2005, while

    11% plan to reduce staff levels. This creates a Net

    Employment Outlook of 10%. According to the seasonally

    adjusted data, Midwest employers anticipate little change

    in their first quarter hiring, compared with the final

    months of 2004. Job prospects a year ago were much

    weaker than those predicted for the coming quarter.

    Job seekers are likely to find mixed staffing intentions

    among employers in the Midwest. Those in the Mining,

    Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Public Administration

    and Services sectors plan to step up the hiring pace

    from fourth quarter, while job prospects in

    Transportation/Public Utilities and Education are

    expected to soften. Durable and Non-Durable Goods

    Manufacturing, Construction and Wholesale/Retail

    Trade employers plan to hold steady with hiring levels

    similar to fourth quarter.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    6/22

    5

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 21 10 61 8 1811

    Construction 17 6016 7 1 21

    Education 15 2 78 5 13 12

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 25 5 64 6 20 22

    Manufacturing Durables 21 9 62 8 12 17

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 23 7 16 19

    Mining 25 0 25 20

    Public Administration 12 9 3 5

    Services 21 8 13 19

    Transportation & Public Utilities 21 8

    64

    75

    67

    62

    60

    6

    0

    12

    9

    11 13 14

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 16 53 7 8 21

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Northeast

    The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,

    Rhode Island, Vermont.

    Of the employers surveyed in the Northeast, 21% plan

    to increase job opportunities in the first three months of

    2005, while 10% anticipate a reduction in staff levels,

    resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of 11%. Whenseasonal variations are removed from the data, the job

    forecast for the Northeast is the same as it was in the

    past two surveys.

    Employers in the Northeast are not as optimistic about

    first quarter hiring as those in the other U.S. regions, a

    position they have held since the second quarter of

    2004. Even so, hiring expectations for the Northeast

    are stronger than they were a year ago at this time.

    The hiring pace in the Construction, Public

    Administration and Mining sectors is expected to

    strengthen in the first quarter, compared with the final

    period of 2004. Wholesale/Retail Trade,Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Education and Services

    employers predict little change in hiring activity, while

    those in Durable and Non-Durable Goods

    Manufacturing and Transportation/Public Utilities

    anticipate slightly softer job prospects.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    7/22

    6

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    South

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 26 9 58 7 17 23

    Construction 27 5610 7 17 28

    Education 16 6 69 9 10 11

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 3 62 9 23 22

    Manufacturing Durables 29 10 56 5 19 24

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 24 8 62 6 16 19

    Mining 25 6 63 6 19 23

    Public Administration 20 624 14 16 18

    Services 28 7 57 8 21 23

    Transportation & Public Utilities 25 608 7 17 19

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 26 16 51 7 10 25

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

    Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

    In the South, 26% of the employers polled anticipate an

    increase in job levels, while 9% plan to slow the hiring

    pace. This results in a Net Employment Outlook of 17%,

    the strongest of the U.S. regions surveyed.

    On a seasonally adjusted basis, job seekers in the

    South can expect to see a mild improvement in hiring

    activity, compared with fourth quarter, and an even

    stronger hiring pace than a year ago.

    Employers in six of the 10 industry sectors in the South

    are more positive about hiring in the first quarter than

    they were in the fourth quarter of 2004. They include

    Construction, Public Administration, Durable GoodsManufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,

    Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Mining. Job

    prospects in Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services are likely to remain

    the same, while those in the Education sector are

    expected to decline sharply.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    8/22

    7

    West

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 26 10 55 9 16 22

    Construction 24 16 53 7 8 23

    Education 23 3 67 7 20 19

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 32 4 53 11 28 28

    Manufacturing Durables 32 9 50 9 23 25

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 24 9 58 9 15 18

    Mining 29 6 65 0 23 29

    Public Administration 19 7 67 7 12 14

    Services 25 7 58 10 18 23

    Transportation & Public Utilities 31 7 55 7 24 24

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 27 18 45 10 9 22

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,

    Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

    Among employers surveyed in the West, 26% foresee

    an increase in employment, while 10% anticipate a

    reduction in their payrolls, which equals a Net

    Employment Outlook of 16%. According to theseasonally adjusted survey results, this marks the third

    consecutive quarter that employers in the West have

    predicted the same steady hiring pace. Last year at this

    time, they were not as positive in their hiring intentions

    for the f irst quarter.

    Job candidates can expect to find a healthy hiring pace

    throughout the West, with the strongest quarter-over-

    quarter improvement in job prospects likely to occur in

    the Mining, Education, Wholesale/Retail Trade andFinance/Insurance/Real Estate industries. Little change

    in employment activity is planned for the

    Transportation/Public Utilities and Services industries,

    while more conservative hiring plans are in store for the

    Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

    Construction and Public Administration sectors.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    9/22

    8

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Sector Comparisons

    According to seasonally adjusted results, there is disparity

    in first quarter hiring plans among the 10 industry sectors

    surveyed. Mining employers are most intent on adding

    to payroll, with expectations at a level not seen since

    the early 1980s. Strong hiring plans are also apparent

    in Construction, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Durable

    Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade.

    On the other end of the spectrum, Public Administration

    and Education employers are considerably more

    reserved about the employment outlook, as they were

    throughout 2004.

    Construction

    Education

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

    Manufacturing Durables

    Manufacturing Non-Durables

    Mining

    Public Administration

    Services

    Transportation & Public Utilities

    Wholesale & Retail Trade

    23

    24

    1010

    0 40

    2126

    1013

    17

    20

    21

    623

    1923

    16

    18

    20

    24

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    7

    5 10 15 20 25 30 35

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    10/22

    9

    Construction

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-20-15-10

    -505

    10152025303540

    After a moderate decline in the latter half of 2004,

    Construction employers plan to pick up the hiring pace

    during the first quarter of 2005, according to seasonally

    adjusted data. Job prospects are expected to improveslightly from last quarter and last year at this time.

    Regionally, employers in the South are most confident

    about adding to headcount, as they have been in 11

    out of the last 12 quarters. Employers in the Midwest

    anticipate slower hiring compared with the other threeregions.

    Education

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Hiring ups and downs are expected to continue to

    plague job seekers in the Education sector. Employer

    confidence trended upward for four consecutive

    quarters and then began to fall in the fourth quarter of

    2004, according to seasonally adjusted data. The

    downward slide continues in the first quarter of 2005

    with fewer employers intending to add to staff

    compared with last quarter. The hiring pace is expected

    to be stronger than last year at this time.

    For the first quarter, employers in the West are most

    likely to add staff, and those in the Midwest have the

    weakest hiring intentions.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    11/22

    10

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Manufacturing Durable Goods

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    With one of the most positive employment outlooks,

    Durable Goods Manufacturers expect to hire at a

    steady pace from January to March, according to

    seasonally adjusted data. Employer confidence is

    identical to levels reported in the fourth quarter survey.

    Compared with a year ago, job seekers should find

    many more employers adding staff.

    Regional comparisons also mirror the fourth quarter

    survey results. Once again, employers in the West plan

    to offer the most promising employment prospects,

    while those in the Northeast are least likely to have

    job openings.

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    hiring activity in Finance/Insurance/Real Estate is

    expected to be among the strongest of the 10 industry

    sectors surveyed. Nearly 25 years have passed sinceemployers in this sector were so confident in their

    job forecast.

    As it has since the final months of 2003, employer

    optimism continues its slow and steady climb.

    Companies are somewhat more positive about hiring

    than they were last quarter, and considerably more

    confident about staffing plans compared with a year ago.

    Employers in the West are most optimistic about hiring,

    as was the case throughout 2004. The employment

    outlook for the Midwest, Northeast and South is

    identical.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    12/22

    11

    Mining

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    Mining employers are more optimistic in their hiring

    estimates than they have been since the early 1980s.

    In addition, the employment outlook for Mining is the

    strongest among industries surveyed. The hiring pace is

    expected to be up from last quarter and significantly

    more robust than last year at this time.

    For the first quarter, hiring intentions in Mining are

    strongest in the West and weakest in the Northeast.

    Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Steady hiring intentions are apparent again this quarter

    in Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, according to the

    seasonally adjusted survey results. Hiring plans are

    consistent with those reported the last two quarters.Employers are noticeably more upbeat about adding to

    payroll than they were a year ago.

    There is little variation in employer confidence across

    the regions. Job prospects are expected to be equal in

    the South, Midwest and Northeast, with the West only

    slightly behind.

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    13/22

    12

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Public Administration

    Employer confidence is on the rise in Public Administration.

    According to seasonally adjusted data, government

    employers expect a slight boost in the hiring pace over

    fourth quarter, and a considerable increase in activitycompared with a year ago.

    Job seekers may find their employment search takes

    them South, where more employers expect to take on

    staff. Employers in the Northeast have the most

    conservative hiring plans.

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Services

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Stability characterizes the recent hiring trend in the

    Services industry, according to seasonally adjusted

    survey results. For the fourth consecutive quarter, the

    employment outlook remains relatively consistent.

    Employers expect a modest improvement in staffing

    plans from last year at this time.

    Job seekers in the South and West are likely to have

    the best employment prospects, while those in the

    Northeast are expected to find fewer companies adding

    to payroll.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    14/22

    13

    Wholesale & Retail Trade

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-15-10

    -505

    101520253035

    Transportation & Public Utilities

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    During the first quarter of 2005, Transportation/Public

    Utilities employers expect the hiring pace to remain steady.

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    the employment outlook is similar to last quarter. Thehiring picture is considerably rosier than a year ago.

    Employers in the West are most confident about hiring

    for the January March period, while those in the

    Northeast are more reserved in their staffing plans.

    According to seasonally adjusted survey results,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade employers foresee a continued

    pattern of steady hiring. The hiring pace has remained

    consistent since the second quarter of 2004, and this

    quarter is no exception. The employment outlook is

    identical to last quarter, but shows modest

    improvement from a year ago.

    As was the case last quarter, job prospects are likely to

    be similar across the regions. Employers in the South

    are most optimistic about job gains, while the hiring

    pace is expected to be slightly slower in the Northeast

    than in other areas.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    15/22

    14

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Global Employment Outlookthis quarter, German employer confidence has

    improved since the first quarter of 2004, whilst

    employer confidence in Italy has decreased slightly

    over the same period of time.

    In the U.S., Canada and the UK, seasonally adjusted

    results reveal continuing employer optimism and solid

    hiring levels with all three countries recording year-

    over-year improvements. Notably, Canadian and

    American employers reported the strongest first-

    quarter outlooks in four years.

    Over 35,000 employers have been interviewed across

    19 countries and territories to measure anticipated

    employment trends between January and March 2005.

    Employers in 17 of the 19 countries and territories

    say they expect positive hiring activity in the coming

    quarter, with 12 countries reporting stronger hiring

    levels compared to one year ago. New Zealand and

    Hong Kong employers once again reported the

    strongest anticipated hiring trends for the quarter

    ahead. Although employers in both Italy and Germany

    are reporting negative Net Employment Outlooks for

    Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

    Americas Q4 2004 to Q1 2005

    Canada -9 (1)1

    Mexico -6

    United States

    Quarter 4 2004

    %

    13 (17)1

    18

    21 (20)1

    Quarter 1 2005

    %

    4 (18)1

    12

    14 (21)1 -7 (1)1

    Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

    Europe Q4 2004 to Q1 2005

    Austria -3

    Belgium -2

    France -3

    Germany -4

    Ireland 1

    Netherlands -3

    Norway 5

    Spain 0

    UK -4 (4)1

    Italy

    Quarter 4 2004

    %

    4

    7

    5

    -2

    14

    6

    7

    5

    18 (14)1

    -1

    Quarter 1 2005

    %

    1

    5

    2

    -6

    15

    3

    12

    5

    Sweden -49 5

    14 (18)1

    -1 0

    1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for Canada, the UK

    and the United States.

    Net Employment Outlook

    Asia Pacific

    Australia 0

    Quarter 1 2005

    %

    17

    1330

    Quarter 4 2004

    %

    17

    1129

    Qtr on Qtr Change

    Q4 2004 to Q1 2005

    2625Hong Kong 1

    Japan 2New Zealand 1

    Singapore 814 -6

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    16/22

    15

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

    International Comparisons Americas

    Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across

    the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure

    anticipated employment trends between January and

    March 2005.The overall regional outlook is positivewith employers in all three countries forecasting year-

    over-year improvements.

    Based on the seasonally adjusted data, employers in

    the United States posted the regions strongest Net

    Employment Outlook. U.S. and Canadian employers

    reported their strongest first-quarter outlooks in four

    years. Mexican employers expect to hire less in the

    first quarter than they did at the close of 2004.However, the hiring outlook is comparable to levels

    reported at this time last year.

    Canada

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Mexico

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

    USA

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    17/22

    16

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    International Comparisons Asia Pacific

    Over 6,000 interviews have been conducted across

    Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment

    trends between January and March 2005.

    Continued positive hiring activity is expected in all of

    the countries surveyed in Asia Pacific, with employers

    in New Zealand reporting the most positive outlook.

    Employers in Hong Kong also revealed optimistic

    hiring intentions for the first three months of the year

    with their strongest outlook in seven quarters.

    Notably, Hong Kongs Net Employment Outlook has

    increased at every quarter since the establishment of

    the survey. Singapore employers reported weaker

    hiring activity compared to the previous quarter.Employers in Japan revealed a considerable Net

    Employment Outlook improvement year-over-year.

    Employers in both Australia and Singapore reveal no

    meaningful year-over-year changes in anticipated

    hiring patterns.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Australia50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Hong Kong

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    2003 2004 2005

    Singapore

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Japan50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    This country joined the survey in Q2 2004.

    New Zealand

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    18/22

    17

    International Comparisons Europe

    Over 10,000 interviews have been conducted across

    11 European nations to measure anticipated employment

    trends between January and March 2005. The overall

    regional Net Employment Outlook for Europe ispositive with only employers in Italy and Germany

    continuing to reveal negative hiring intentions for the

    quarter ahead. However, six of the 11 countries

    anticipate decreases in year-over-year outlooks.

    Employers in Ireland and the UK continue to report

    the most buoyant hiring intentions in Europe with

    Ireland reporting a considerable year-over-year

    improvement. Employers in Norway are very upbeat

    about first-quarter hiring intentions, reporting the

    highest level ever recorded for the country. Employersin Germany, although forecasting a negative outlook for

    the quarter ahead, are less pessimistic than they were

    in the first quarter of 2004. Notably, in the next three

    months French employers are anticipating the weakest

    hiring activity since the survey began in this country.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    2003 2004 2005

    Austria50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Belgium

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    France

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Germany

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    19/22

    18

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Ireland50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    2003 2004 2005

    Italy

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Netherlands50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Norway

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Spain50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Sweden

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

    2003 2004 2005

    UK

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    20/22

    19

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted

    quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or

    decrease the number of employees in their workforce during

    the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than

    40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

    Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area

    of focus.

    Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the

    only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast

    employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys

    and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what

    occurred in the past.

    Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived

    all of its information from a single question.

    Independent:The survey is conducted with a representative

    sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it

    is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from

    Manpowers customer base.

    Robust:The survey is based on interviews with more than

    35,000 public and private employers across 19 countries and

    territories to measure anticipated employment trends each

    quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across

    specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

    Methodology

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using

    a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 19

    countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted

    includes Manpowers Market Intelligence team; the Organization

    Research and Analysis Division of Right Management

    Consultants an independent operating division of Manpower

    Inc.; NOP World and Grupo IDM. The survey has been

    structured to be representative of each national economy. The

    margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not

    greater than +/- 4.1%.

    In the United States, the national survey is conducted by

    Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and

    includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the

    margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

    Survey Question

    All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the

    same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your

    location to change in the three months to the end of March 2005

    as compared to the current quarter?

    Net Employment Outlook

    Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment

    Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of

    employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and

    subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to

    see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.

    The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

    Seasonal Adjustment

    Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for

    Canada, the United States and United Kingdom to provide

    additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make

    it possible to review the data without the employment

    fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus

    providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower

    intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other

    countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled.

    History of the Survey

    1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

    Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

    1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of the

    United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly

    Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts thesame forward-looking research format as the United States

    survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

    1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook

    Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

    Research methodology is updated to evolve with

    advancements in the field of market research.

    2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment

    Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research

    methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and

    Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

    2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

    Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18

    countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria,

    Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,

    Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,

    Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

    2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

    About the Survey

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    21/22

    20

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment

    services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to

    meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle.

    The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract

    recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition and

    organizational consulting services. Manpowers worldwide

    network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries and territories enables

    the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 customers per

    year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry

    sectors, as well as the worlds largest multinational corporations.

    The focus of Manpowers work is on raising productivity through

    improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling

    customers to concentrate on their core business activities.

    In addition to the Manpower brand, the company operates under

    the brand names of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson

    Wells, Elan and Brook Street. More information on Manpower Inc.

    is available at www.manpower.com.

    In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range ofHR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial

    and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower

    Professional brand, the company places contract professionals

    on assignment in areas such as information technology,

    scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More

    information about Manpowers US operation can be found at

    www.us.manpower.com.

  • 8/9/2019 power Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2005

    22/22

    Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217

    Tel: 414 961 1000

    www.us.manpower.com


Recommended