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2 Changing Face o Britain
Table of Contents
3 Foreword - Simon Woolley
4-5 Executive Summary
6-7 List o Marginal Seats Measured by BME Impact
8 Voting and turnout
9 Methodology
10 BME Population
11 Individual BME Communities
12 Labours Challenge
13 Conservatives Opportunity
14 Lib Dems Watershed
15 MPs Vulnerable to BME Vote16-63 Analysis o Parliamentary Seats
Operation Black Vote - August 2013
Researched, written and designed by Lester Holloway
Assistance rom Louise Alexander
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4 Changing Face o Britain
Every parliamentary constit-uency in England and Wales- all 573 - are analysed in this
report by comparing the latest
2011 population census data
with the results o the 2010
general election.
This exercise has revealed that 241
constituencies (42 percent) in Eng-
land and Wales have BME electorates
larger than the 2010 majorities o thesitting MP when measured against
the 2011 census and counting only
the voting electorate.
Critically, 168 o these constitu-
encies are in marginal seats which
could probably decide the next Gov-
ernment. These seats are listed on
pages 6-7 along with 37 more which
have BME electorates less than the
MPs majority but where BME voters
can still have a signicant bearingon the election outcome, particu-
larly in a close race. Thereore i the
2015 election is neck-and-neck there
could be 205 constituencies where
the BME vote could heavily inuence
the result.
168 seats equates to over a quarter
(29 percent) o all constituencies in
England and Wales. Thereore almost
one-third o MPs can be voted in or
out depending on the extent that
they, and their party, appeals to BME
voters.
This gure debunks the stereotype
that BME communities are mostly
concentrated in sae Labour seats
and thereore not signicant in
terms o electoral impact. Although
inner city seats do indeed contain a
high proportion BME communities,
the overall picture across England
and Wales is that many BME com-
munities live in swing seats which willorm the key battlegrounds at the orth-
coming election in 2015.
It is accepted wisdom in political circles
that between 100 and 130 seats will de-
termine the result in 2015. That means
the Black vote will undoubtedly have a
major impact.
Many o the 73 sae seats with a BME
electorate larger than the MPs major-
ity are only sae because the sitting MPand their party enjoy the support o the
BME electorate. However traditional
patterns o voting are changing as Brit-
ish-born decendents o immigrants
increasingly make political choices
independent o their parents and
grandparents, so these seats - the
vast majority held by Labour - may
not always remain sae in uture.
This process will almost certainly in-
crease the power o the Black vote
over time as an ever-growing pro-portion become oating voters.
The concept o a Black vote has
been questioned on one level; BME
communities are not homogenious
in their voting patterns. Within each
community and household di-
erent political choices are made,
inuenced by a range o actors in-
cluding general policies o the par-
ties, and issues o the day but also
impacted by socio-economic status,
aith, geography and the extent o
local political activity.
However on another level the con-
cept o a Black vote is credible. The
reputation o each party and, to a lesser
extent, o the individual candidates in
terms o how sympathetic or under-
standing they are towards the particu-lar issues and challenges acing BME
communities in general and specic
race and aith communities has a major
impact on voting.
Policies to specically address dis-
proportionate racial disadvantage
and BME political representation
matter. So while race has been o
just over hal o all seats (285) have a
BME population which is larger than
the majorities o the sitting MPs.
Executive Summary
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Changing Face o Britain 5
principally theresult o two
key actors;
the signicant
increase in the
BME elector-
ate between
the 2001 and
2011 popula-
tion census,
and the act
that the 2010general elec-
tion produced
more marginal
seats because
it was a closer
general elec-
tion than 2005.
A third, less
signicant, ac-
tor is the rise in
Mixed Race vot-ers in marginal
rural and town
c o n s t i t u e n -
cies where their population where,
though relatively small, neverthe-
less has an impact on primarily rural
or semi-rural ultra-marginal seats.
Marginal seats have majorities
o less than 6,000, although a
handul o seats with majorities o
under 7,000 qualiy or this deni-
tion because they have shown a
propensity to swing between di-
erent parties rom one election
to the next, particularly i the seat
changed hands in 2010, or they
are targeted as realistic prospects
by the main challenging party.
Three seats with current majori-
ties o between 7,000 and 10,000
changed between parties in 2010.
o the eight Birmingham seats as
well as both seats in Blackpool,
Brighton, Newport, Northhampton,
Norwich, Oxord, Plymouth, Ports-
mouth and Milton Keynes; two out
o three seats in Coventry, Leicester
and Newcastle; and all three seats in
Southampton. None o these towns
and cities t the mould o beingtypical ly inner city yet they are all
examples o places outside London
where the Black vote could play a
decisive role.
The last OBV study, beore the
2010 election, ound 99 mar-
ginal seats with a BME elector-
ate larger than the MPs majority.
The dramatic rise to 168 seats
today (a 70 percent increase) is
This report has analyised the BMEelectorate; voters who will be aged
18 years and above at the 2015
general election. As the Methdol-
ogy page explains, we have cal-
culated this data on the basis o
the population aged 15 years and
above in the 2011 census.
I we counted the overall BME
population, regardless o their
age, the number o seats where
the BME population exceeds the
MPs majority rises to 286, an in-
crease o 10 percent or 27 seats.
This is a signicant indicator o the
number o constituencies that will
decide uture election results.
Currently 2011 census data or
parliamentary constituencies is
only available or England and
Wales. When Scotland becomes
available Operation Black Voteplan to update this report. It is ex-
pected that this would add more
marginal seats where the BME
electorate is larger than the MPs
majority.
Sae seats: 368
BME ElectorateLarger than Majority: 168
BME Electoratemore than hal
Majority: 37
England & Wales. Electorate only (18 years + at 2015 general election)
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6 Changing Face o Britain
Marginals where BME vote can win it
Marginal seats ranked in order o BME impact measuring the size o MPs 2010 majority against the size
o the BME electorate. Colour-coded by the Party currently holding the seat. BME voters are projected
calculations or the electorate in 2015 based on the 2011 population census (see Methdology, page 9).
69 Oxord East
70 Ipswich
71 Chestereld
72 Burnley
73 Telord
74 Leeds North East
75 Hudderseld
76 Mid Dorset & Poole77 St Albans
78 Plymouth Sutton
79 Hove
80 Derby South
81 Batley & Spen
82 Keighley
83 Peterborough
84 Gloucester
85 Hornsey & W Gn
86 Richmond Park
87 Birmingham Nield
88 Truro & Falmouth
89 Pendle
90 Wakeeld
91 Milton Keynes S
92 Battersea
93 Halesowen & Rley
94 Bury North
95 Harrowg & Knars
96 Bristol East
97 Lincoln
98 Bolton N E
99 Morley & Owood
100 Bristol N W
101 Newport East
102 South Swindon
35 Dewsbury
36 Croydon Central
37 Lancaster & Fleet
38 Feltham & Heston
39 Streatham
40 Tooting
41 Ealing C & Acton
42 Walsall North43 Eltham
44 Sutton & Cheam
45 Manchester Wton
46 Birmingham Yley
47 Hammersmith
48 Poplar & Lhouse
49 Haliax
50 Kingston-Hull N
51 Sherwood
52 Asheld
53 Dagenham & Rham
54 Leicester West
55 Brighton Pavillion
56 Ilord North
57 Islington S & Fbury
58 Wolverhton N E
59 Erith & Tmead
60 Birmingham Erdn
61 Manchester Gort
62 Southampton Test
63 Coventry South
64 Finchley & Gold Gn
65 Leicester South
66 Birmingham S Oak
67 Northampton N
68 Brighton Ktown
1 Hampstead & Kilburn
2 Hendon
3 Thurrock
4 Sheeld Central
5 Oldham E & Sworth
6 Bradord East
7 North Warwickshire
8 Solihull9 Bolton West
10 Brent Central
11 Oxord W & Abdon
12 Southampton Itchen
13 Wolverhampton S W
14 Cardif North
15 Rochdale
16 Norwich South
17 Brentord & Isworth
18 Nottingham South
19 Westminster North
20 Birmingham Edgb
21 Camborne & Rdruth
22 Walsall South
23 Derby North
24 Luton South
25 Watord
26 Stockton South
27 Harrow West
28 Broxtowe
29 Eneld North
30 Birmingham Hall Gn
31 Bedord
32 Harrow East
33 Dudley North
34 Swansea West
Majority: 42
BME Voters: 32,802Majority: 1,526BME Voters: 17,413
Majority: 4,581BME Voters: 21,332
Majority: 106BME Voters: 40,866
Majority: 92BME Voters: 14,892
Majority: 165BME Voters: 23,612
Majority: 103BME Voters: 13,846
Majority: 365BME Voters: 39,063
Majority: 54BME Voters: 3,3812
Majority: 175BME Voters: 10,000
Majority: 92BME Voters: 4,742
Majority: 1,346BME Voters: 61,609
Majority: 176BME Voters: 7,764
Majority: 192BME Voters: 6,915
Majority: 691BME Voters: 22,067
Majority: 194BME Voters: 5,883
Majority: 889BME Voters: 22,510
Majority: 310
BME Voters: 7,066Majority: 1,958BME Voters: 39,751
Majority: 1,772BME Voters: 23,659
Majority: 2,126BME Voters: 37,350
Majority: 1,274BME Voters: 22,142
Majority: 66BME Voters: 1,075
Majority: 1,755BME Voters: 28,314
Majority: 613BME Voters: 9,793
Majority: 2,329BME Voters: 34,923
Majority: 1,425BME Voters: 20,765
Majority: 332BME Voters: 4,833
Majority: 3,143BME Voters: 45,629
Majority: 389BME Voters: 5,633
Majority: 1,692BME Voters: 24,508
Majority: 3,799BME Voters: 54,690
Majority: 1,353BME Voters: 18,916
Majority: 3,403BME Voters: 46,114
Majority: 649BME Voters: 8,624
Majority: 504BME Voters: 6,282
Majority: 2,879BME Voters: 32,389
Majority: 333BME Voters: 3,675
Majority: 4,658BME Voters: 50,600
Majority: 3,259BME Voters: 35,200
Majority: 2,524BME Voters: 26,678
Majority: 3,716BME Voters: 36,745
Majority: 990
BME Voters: 9,425Majority: 1,663BME Voters: 15,386
Majority: 1,608BME Voters: 14,849
Majority: 1,894BME Voters: 17,010
Majority: 3,002BME Voters: 26,843
Majority: 3,549BME Voters: 31,739
Majority: 6,030BME Voters: 53,258
Majority: 1,472BME Voters: 12,790
Majority: 641BME Voters: 5,300
Majority: 214BME Voters: 1,749
Majority: 192BME Voters: 1,523
Majority: 2,630BME Voters: 20,761
Majority: 4,017BME Voters: 20,663
Majority: 1,252BME Voters: 8,282
Majority: 5,404BME Voters: 35,651
Majority: 3,569BME Voters: 23,071
Majority: 2,484BME Voters: 15,385
Majority: 5,703BME Voters: 34,026
Majority: 3,277BME Voters: 19,262
Majority: 6,703BME Voters: 38,718
Majority: 2,413BME Voters: 13,139
Majority: 3,845BME Voters: 20,553
Majority: 5,809BME Voters: 29,610
Majority: 8,808BME Voters: 44,329
Majority: 3,482BME Voters: 17,084
Majority: 1,936BME Voters: 9,354
Majority: 1,328BME Voters: 6,407
Majority: 2,079BME Voters: 9,355
Majority: 549BME Voters: 2,465
Majority: 1,818BME Voters: 8,054
Majority: 978BME Voters: 4,304
Majority: 4,545BME Voters: 19,932
Majority: 4,472BME Voters: 19,581
Majority: 269
BME Voters: 1,178Majority: 2,305BME Voters: 10,021
Majority: 1,149BME Voters: 4,938
Majority: 1,868BME Voters: 7,880
Majority: 6,122BME Voters: 24,738
Majority: 4,406BME Voters: 17,534
Majority: 2,940BME Voters: 11,654
Majority: 4,861BME Voters: 19,050
Majority: 2,420BME Voters: 9,353
Majority: 6,875BME Voters: 26,406
Majority: 4,091BME Voters: 15,697
Majority: 2,782BME Voters: 10,508
Majority: 435BME Voters: 1,628
Majority: 3,585BME Voters: 13,185
Majority: 1,613BME Voters: 5,772
Majority: 5,201BME Voters: 18,528
Majority: 5,977BME Voters: 20,708
Majority: 2,023BME Voters: 6,992
Majority: 2,243BME Voters: 7,599
Majority: 1,039BME Voters: 3,192
Majority: 3,722BME Voters: 11,426
Majority: 1,058BME Voters: 3,234
Majority: 4,084BME Voters: 12,182
Majority: 1,101BME Voters: 3,271
Majority: 3,274BME Voters: 9,717
Majority: 1,650BME Voters: 4,757
Majority: 3,544BME Voters: 10,168
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Changing Face o Britain 7
Marginals where BME vote can win it
103 Carshalton & Wton
104 Eneld Southgate
105 Hyndburn
106 Cardif S & Penarth
107 Gedling
108 Cardif Central
109 Crawley
110 Great Grimsby
111 Pudsey
112 Newcastle-Lyme
113 Nuneaton
114 Warwick & Lton
115 Loughborough
116 Portsmouth South
117 Reading West
118 Waveney
119 Warrington South
120 Cheadle
121 Stevenage
122 Hastings & Rye
123 Wirral South
124 Cambridge
125 Bury South
126 Coventry N W
127 Newton Abbot
128 Exeter
129 Colne Valley
130 Northampton S
131 Milton Keynes N
132 Aldershot
133 Amber Valley
134 Wells
135 Newcastle-Tyne E
136 Newport West
137 Aron
138 Stalybridge & Hyde
139 Putney
140 Salord & Eccles
141 Worcester
142 Carlisle
143 Corby
144 Scunthorpe
145 Weaver Vale
146 Morecambe
147 Romsey & Ston
148 Harlow
149 Winchester
150 Eastbourne
151 Burton
152 Bristol South
153 Newcastle N
154 Stoke-Trent S
155 Stroud
156 Dudley South
157 Chelmsord
158 Rugby
159 Colchester
160 Blackpool South
161 City o Chester
162 Plymouth Moor
163 Kingswood
164 Stourbridge
165 City o Durham
166 Guildord
167 Mboro S & Cleve
The next seats are marginal
seats where the BME Electorate
is less than the MPs 2010
majority but where BME voters
can still have an impact on the
2015 result.
168 Heywood & M
169 Worsley & Eccles
170 Eastleigh
171 Bournemouth W
172 St Austell & Newq
173 Cheltenham
174 Chippenham
175 Weston-s-Mare
176 Erewash
177 Dartord
178 Gillingham & Ra
179 S Basildon & E Thur
180 Redditch
181 Chorley
182 Pontypridd
183 Darlington
184 Blackpool N
185 Staford
186 Norwich North
187 Wyre Forest
188 York Outer
189 Chatham & Ayles
190 Bridgend
191 Portsmouth N
192 Somerton & Fr
193 Rossendale & Dar
194 St Ives
195 Hereord & S Herts
196 Wrexham
197 Vale o Clywd
198 Don Valley
199 Taunton Deane
200 Wirral West
201 Great Yarmouth
202 N E Derbyshire
203 Vale o Glamorgan
204 Cannock Chase
205 Torbay
Majority: 5,260BME Voters: 14,936
Majority: 5,725BME Voters: 9,449
Majority: 4,337BME Voters: 4,289
Majority: 7,626BME Voters: 21,401
Majority: 3,090BME Voters: 8,635
Majority: 4,709BME Voters: 13,095
Majority: 1,859BME Voters: 5,147
Majority: 4,576BME Voters: 12,445
Majority: 5,928BME Voters: 15,674
Majority: 714BME Voters: 1,879
Majority: 1,659BME Voters: 4,379
Majority: 1,552BME Voters: 4,052
Majority: 2,069BME Voters: 5,387
Majority: 3,513BME Voters: 9,025
Majority: 3,744BME Voters: 9,446
Majority: 5,200BME Voters: 12,514
Majority: 6,004BME Voters: 14,195
Majority: 769BME Voters: 1,800
Majority: 1,553BME Voters: 3,587
Majority: 3,272BME Voters: 7,378
Majority: 3,578BME Voters: 7,936
Majority: 1,993BME Voters: 4,399
Majority: 531BME Voters: 1,157
Majority: 6,792BME Voters: 14,631
Majority: 3,292BME Voters: 7,058
Majority: 6,288BME Voters: 13,486
Majority: 523BME Voters: 1,104
Majority: 3,388BME Voters: 2,680
Majority: 2,721BME Voters: 5,685
Majority: 4,837BME Voters: 10,012
Majority: 6,004BME Voters: 12,052
Majority: 8,961BME Voters: 17,866
Majority: 5,586BME Voters: 11,003
Majority: 536BME Voters: 1,036
Majority: 800BME Voters: 1,547
Majority: 4,453BME Voters: 7,931
Majority: 3,544BME Voters: 6,208
Majority: 1,455BME Voters: 2,500
Majority: 2,744BME Voters: 4,719
Majority: 10,053BME Voters: 16,850
Majority: 2,982BME Voters: 4,738
Majority: 853BME Voters: 1,329
Majority: 1,895BME Voters: 2,956
Majority: 2,549BME Voters: 3,947
Majority: 991BME Voters: 1,524
Majority: 866BME Voters: 1,314
Majority: 4,156BME Voters: 6,228
Majority: 4,925BME Voters: 6,819
Majority: 3,048BME Voters: 4,019
Majority: 3,435BME Voters: 4,438
Majority: 6,304BME Voters: 7,776
Majority: 4,734BME Voters: 5,840
Majority: 3,414BME Voters: 4,137
Majority: 4,130BME Voters: 4,915
Majority: 1,299BME Voters: 1,556
Majority: 3,856BME Voters: 4,476
Majority: 5,110BME Voters: 5,912
Majority: 6,000BME Voters: 6,852
Majority: 6,982BME Voters: 7,883
Majority: 1,852BME Voters: 2,028
Majority: 2,583BME Voters: 2,826
Majority: 1,588BME Voters: 1,674
Majority: 2,445BME Voters: 2,531
Majority: 5,164BME Voters: 5,316
Majority: 3,067BME Voters: 3,101
Majority: 7,782BME Voters: 7,872
Majority: 1,677BME Voters: 1,678
Majority: 5,971BME Voters: 5,905
Majority: 3,864BME Voters: 3,725
Majority: 5,583BME Voters: 5,282
Majority: 1,312BME Voters: 1,212
Majority: 4,920BME Voters: 4,474
Majority: 2,470BME Voters: 2,195
Majority: 2,691BME Voters: 2,377
Majority: 2,501BME Voters: 2,177
Majority: 9,157BME Voters: 9,157
Majority: 8,680BME Voters: 7,518
Majority: 5,772BME Voters: 5,017
Majority: 5,821BME Voters: 4,978
Majority: 2,593BME Voters: 2,131
Majority: 2,785BME Voters: 2,218
Majority: 2,150BME Voters: 1,673
Majority: 5,460BME Voters: 4,203
Majority: 3,901BME Voters: 2,921
Majority: 2,643BME Voters: 1,978
Majority: 3,688BME Voters: 2,734
Majority: 6,069BME Voters: 4,441
Majority: 2,263BME Voters: 1,645
Majority: 7,289BME Voters: 4,959
Majority: 1,817BME Voters: 1,236
Majority: 4,493BME Voters: 3,042
Majority: 1,719BME Voters: 1,092
Majority: 2,481BME Voters: 1,520
Majority: 3,658BME Voters: 2,231
Majority: 2,509BME Voters: 1,484
Majority: 3,595BME Voters: 2,085
Majority: 3,993BME Voters: 2,248
Majority: 2,436BME Voters: 1,353
Majority: 4,276BME Voters: 2,241
Majority: 2,445BME Voters: 1,287
Majority: 4,307BME Voters: 2,282
Majority: 3,195BME Voters: 1,614
Majority: 4,078BME Voters: 2,021
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8 Changing Face o Britain
Voting and turnout:
The BME Challenge
The biggest challenge is to turn the political
power o the Black community into greater
rates o voting and voter registration.
Operation Black Vote has been campaigning 17 yearsto raise the rate o political participation among BME
communities and although signicant progress has
been made there is still a long way to go.
18 percent o BME citizens were not registered to vote
in 2010 compared to seven percent or white residents.
The Online Centre or Ethnicity in Politics reports that
non-registration is as high as 28 percent among Aricans
with the most likely community to register being Paki-
stanis (15 percent).However at election time BME electors are slightly
more likely to turn out than their white counterparts.
The national voter turnout in 2010 was 65.1 percent.
Sel-reported turnout rom BME groups was mostly
higher than the national average: Bangladeshi (75 per-
cent), Pakistani (73), Indian (74), Caribbean (66) and
Arican (60).
OBV plan to join orces with community and aith
leaders in an unprecedented high prole voter regis-
tration drive ahead o the 2015 general election.
It is interesting to note that ormer Conservative Party
donor Lord Ashcrot has spent thousands o pounds
studying the BME vote because Conservatives realised
they cannot win a general election without this sup-port. The experience o the last United States presiden-
tial election, when the Republicans were aced with the
prospect o never winning again without gaining sup-
port o Arican-Americans, is a scenario that will increas-
ingly also apply to Britain. No party can aord to ignore
the BME vote or take it or granted.
Traditionally most BME communities have voted La-
bour although this has been lessening with each gener-
al election. Previously over 90 percent o the BME elec-
torate voted Labour but this was down to 68 percent
at the last election according to the Runnymede Trustreport Ethnic Minority Voting on the 2010 UK General
Election. The same study ound 16 percent supported
the Conservatives and 14 percent the Liberal Demo-
crats.
I current trends continue then uture elections will see
a greater proportion o BME oating voters making choic-
es independent o the historical voting patterns o their
parents or grandparents on general political issues o the
day; whether parties have policies to tackle racial disad-
vantage; and how they are perorming on BME political
representation.
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10 Changing Face o Britain
BME Population
BME-Majority Seats
East Ham 74.4%
Ilord South 73.2
Brent North 70.6
Birrmingham Ladywood 70
Ealing Southall 66.6
Leicester East 65.5
West Ham 62.2
Croydon North 61.6
Birmingham Hall Green 61.3
Birmingham Hodge Hill 61.1
Bradord West 59.6
Brent Central 57.9
Harrow East 57.4
Birmingham Perry Barr 57
Harrow West 56.5
Hayes & Harlington 53.2
Camberwell & Peckham 51.7
Feltham & Heston 51.7
Slough 53.7
Poplar & Limehouse 50.9
Electorate only (18 years and over at 2015
general election)
Analysis o the 2011 Population Census by con-
stituency reveals that over one third o all seats in
England and Wales have a BME population o over
10%, and one in fve MPs represent a constituencywhere over 20% o the population are non-white.
The gures reinorce the size and political inuence o
BME communities. In act will be 20 BME-majority con-
stituencies. This counts the BME electoral however six
more seats are BME majority when taking into account
the overall BME population (Ealing North, Leicester
South, Lewisham Deptord, Edmonton, Bethnal Green
& Bow and Leyton & Wanstead). Three seats have more
than 100,000 BME citizens: East Ham, West Ham and Il-
ord South.
However just three o the 20 BME majority seats - Eal-
ing Southall, Bethnal Green & Bow and Leicester East
- are currently represented by an MP rom a BME back-
ground (in addition, Marsha Singh in Bradord West re-
tired due to ill health ater the 2010 election).
Looking at the overall BME population (all ages) 286
MPs in England and Wales represent seats where the BME
population is 10% or more, while 113 (18%) seats have a
BME population o 20% or more. These statistics reinorce
arguments or greater BME political representation.
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Changing Face o Britain 11
Individual BME Communities
In addition to the 203 marginal seats wherethe BME vote has a signifcant impact on the
result (including 168 marginals where the
BME electorate exceeds the MPs majority)
there are important patterns relating to indi-
vidual communities.
Pakistanis make up the largest BME group in 36
constituencies where the overall BME population
is over 20% o the total population. By the same
measure, Indians are the largest group in
34 such seats and Bangladeshis inour. That means that the main
Asian groups are the dominant
BME communities in 74 seats.
Aricans are the astest-
growing group other than
the Mixed categories.
They are the largest BME
community in 31 seats
where the BME popula-
tion exceeds 20% o the
total. Caribbeans are the
largest group in six seats.
Indian
Indians make up the largest
BME group in 175 constituencies
in England and Wales. O these, 60
are marginal seats. In addition, Indians
are the largest group several sae seats - both
Labour and Conservative - which are believed to
be sae precisely because the sitting MP has the
support o these communities. Thereore the po-
tential impact o Indians could be even greater
than gures suggest. However although Indians
are the largest group in 175 seats they are pro-
portionally less likely to be located in marginals
than some other BME groups.
Pakistani
Pakistanis are the largest BME group in 86 con-
stituencies in England and Wales. O these, over
hal - 45 seats - are marginals. Consequently the
Pakistani community plays a very signicant part
in the outcome o the 2015 general election.
Arican
Aricans are the largest BME group in 75 constit-
uencies. 21 o these are marginals. These gures
represent a signicant increase compared to 2001
Census data. Aricans now make up the largest
BME group in seats traditionally associated with
Caribbeans.
Caribbean
Caribbeans make up the largestBME group in six constituencies,
but only one o these is a mar-
ginal. However in each o the
six the overall BME popula-
tion is over 20% o the to-
tal. In addition, Caribbe-
ans are in second-place
behind Aricans in sev-
eral seats, most o which
are regarded as sae La-
bour seats. However thecategory o Mixed White
& Black Caribbean is the
largest group in 44 constitu-
encies, o which 20 are mar-
ginals. All these seats have a rela-
tively low overall BME population in
primarily Conservative marginal seats,
but the White & Black Caribbean group could
well make the dierence.
ChineseChinese are the largest BME group in 36 seats, 17
o which are marginals. In most o these constitu-
encies the Chinese population is airly moderate
but large enough to make the dierence in key
battlegrounds.
White & Asian / Asian Other
Mixed White & Asians are the largest BME group
in 41 seats, 16 o which are marginals. Asian Oth-
er - believed to include Sri Lankans and Turkish
/ Kurdish - are the largest BME group in 96 con-
stituencies, o which 33 are marginals.
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Amber Valley
Battersea
Bedord
Brentord & Isle
Brighton Kemp
Broxtowe
Burton
Bury North
Cardi North
Carlisle
City o Chester
Corby
Crawley
Croydon Central
Dewsbury
Dudley South
Ealing C & Acton
Eneld North
Eneld Sgate
Finchley & Gold
Gloucester
Halesowen & R
Hampstd & Kilb
Harlow
Harrow East
Hastings & Rye
Hendon
Hove
Ilord North
Ipswich
Keighley
Kingswood
Lancaster & Fld
Lincoln
Loughborough
Milton Keynes N
Milton Keynes S
Morecambe
N Warwickshire
Northampton N
Northampton S
Nuneaton
Pendle
Peterborough
Plymouth Sutton
Putney
Reading West
Rugby
Sherwood
South Swindon
Stevenage
Stockton South
Stourbridge
Stroud
Thurrock
Warrington S
Warwick & Leam
Waverney
Weaver Vale
Wolvmpton SW
Worcester
12 Changing Face o Britain
Other seats where Labour are in second-
place and the BME electorate exceeds the
MPs majority.
Aron (Plaid Cymru)
Birmingham Yardley (LibDem)
Bradord East (LibDem)
Brent Central (LibDem)
Brighton Pavilion (Green)
Burnley (LibDem)
Hornsey & Wood Green (LibDem)
Manchester Withington (LibDem)
Norwich South (LibDem)
Conservative-held marginal (swing) seats with
BME electorates larger than the majority o the
sitting MP where Labour are the second-placed
challenger.
FROM BLUE TO RED?The belie that Labour have a strong hold
over the Black vote - particularly Arican,
Caribbean, Pakistani and Bangladeshi com-
munities - is not as true as it used to be.
Closer analysis reveals Labour could do
much better, and need to i they are to orm
a majority government in 2015.
In the 168 marginal seats identied in this report
with BME electorates larger than the majorities o
the sitting MPs Labour are the second-placed party
in 70 o those seats. 61 o those seats are currently
held by a Conservative MP. Winning these shouldpropel Ed Miliband into Downing Street.
While some o those 70 seats will have larger BME
populations than the MPs majority by virtue o
the act that the MPs majority is particularly small,
there are also many marginal seats with consid-
erable BME populations. For example Bedord
Conservative MPs majority o 1,353 is dwared by
18,916 BME voters. Similarly, the Lib Dem MP in
Birmingham Yardley has a majority o 3,002 and
26,843 BME voters.
I Labour can increase their appeal to BME voters in
Conservative-held marginals they will signicantly
increase their chances o taking power in 2015. But
Labour will have to oer more by way o policies de-
signed to specically appeal to BME communities
than is presently the case.
Labours Challenge
Majority: 1,455BME Voters: 2,500
Majority: 3,002BME Voters: 26,843
Majority: 365BME Voters: 39,063
Majority: 1,252BME Voters: 8,282
Majority: 1,818BME Voters: 8,054
Majority: 6,875BME Voters: 26,406
Majority: 1,894BME Voters: 17,010
Majority: 310
BME Voters: 7,066
Majority: 536BME Voters: 1,036
Majority: 2,445BME Voters: 2,531
Majority: 1,353BME Voters: 18,916
Majority: 5,977BME Voters: 20,708
Majority: 333BME Voters: 3,675
Majority: 1,058BME Voters: 3,234
Majority: 1,958BME Voters: 39,751
Majority: 3,744BME Voters: 9,446
Majority: 1,328BME Voters: 6,407
Majority: 389BME Voters: 5,633
Majority: 6,304BME Voters: 7,776
Majority: 2,243BME Voters: 7,599
Majority: 194BME Voters: 5,883
Majority: 853BME Voters: 1,329
Majority: 2,583BME Voters: 2,826
Majority: 1,895BME Voters: 2,956
Majority: 5,928BME Voters: 15,674
Majority: 2,879BME Voters: 32,389
Majority: 1,526BME Voters: 17,413
Majority: 3,856BME Voters: 4,476
Majority: 3,716BME Voters: 36,745
Majority: 1,692BME Voters: 24,508
Majority: 7,626BME Voters: 21,401
Majority: 5,809BME Voters: 29,610
Majority: 2,420BME Voters: 9,353
Majority: 2,023BME Voters: 6,992
Majority: 42BME Voters: 32,802
Majority: 4,925BME Voters: 6,819
Majority: 3,403BME Voters: 46,114
Majority: 1,993BME Voters: 4,399
Majority: 106BME Voters: 40,866
Majority: 1,868BME Voters: 7,880
Majority: 5,404BME Voters: 35,651
Majority: 2,079BME Voters: 9,355
Majority: 2,940BME Voters: 11,654
Majority: 5,201BME Voters: 18,528
Majority: 8,961BME Voters: 17,866
Majority: 866BME Voters: 1,314
Majority: 54BME Voters: 3,3812
Majority: 1,936BME Voters: 9,354
Majority: 6,004BME Voters: 12,052
Majority: 2,069BME Voters: 5,387
Majority: 3,585BME Voters: 13,185
Majority: 4,861BME Voters: 19,050
Majority: 1,149BME Voters: 4,938
Majority: 10,053BME Voters: 16,850
Majority: 6,004BME Voters: 14,195
Majority: 6,000BME Voters: 6,852
Majority: 214BME Voters: 1,749
Majority: 3,544BME Voters: 10,168
Majority: 3,578BME Voters: 7,936
Majority: 332BME Voters: 4,833
Majority: 5,164BME Voters: 5,316
Majority: 1,299BME Voters: 1,556
Majority: 92BME Voters: 14,892
Majority: 1,553BME Voters: 3,587
Majority: 3,513BME Voters: 9,025
Majority: 769BME Voters: 1,800
Majority: 991BME Voters: 1,524
Majority: 691BME Voters: 22,067
Majority: 2,982BME Voters: 4,738
Majority: 1,346BME Voters: 61,609
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14 Changing Face o Britain
Lib Dem Watershed
Liberal Democrats could go a long way to
consolidating their numbers in the House
o Commons in 2015 i they can win over
the Black vote.
They could potentially win 13 seats rom
the Conservatives in marginal constituencieswhere the BME electorate is larger than the
Conservative MPs 2010 majority.
Nick Cleggs party could also lose 21 MPs in
seats where the BME electorate is larger than
Lib Dem MPs majorities (seven to Labour and
14 to the Conservatives). That means, or the
Lib Dems, it is all to play or.
In addition, the Lib Dems are the second-
placed challenger in 18 Labour marginals
where the BME vote could decide the result.As the Party currently have 56 MPs, these
numbers represent a very signicant portion
o their overall representation in the House o
Commons.
In the past decade the Lib Dems have previ-
ously held ve seats where they are currently in
second place (Guildord, Leicester South, Rich-
mond Park, Truro & Falmouth and Winchester),
and where where BME voters will be instrumen-
tal to winning those back.
For the Lib Dems the outcome in 2015 general
election may depend on whether they can win
back some o the BME support that voted or
them in 2010. That surge - nicknamed Cleggma-
nia - pushed the Lib Dems into touching distance
in many Labour and Conservative seats but their
role as the junior coalition partner may have lost
some o that support.
I they are to achieve this the Lib Dems will
have to break rom their colourblind approach.
Win rom Conservatives
Seats where BME electorate is larger than the sitting MPs majority
Aldershot
Camborne & Red
Colne Valley
Guildord
Harrowgate & Knar
Newton Abbott
Richmond Park
Romsey & Ston N
St Albans
Truro & Falmouth
WatordWinchester
Asheld
Birmingham Hall Gn
Bristol North West
Bristol South
City o Durham
Islington S & Finsb
Kingston-Hull North
Leicester SouthNewcastle-Tyne East
Newcastle-Tyne N
Newport East
Oldham E & Sworth
Oxord East
Oxord W & Abdon
Rochdale
Shefeld Central
Streatham
Swansea West
Carshalton & Wall
Cambridge
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chippenham
Colchester
EastbourneEastleigh
Mid-Dorset & N Poole
Portsmouth South
Sutton & Cheam
Solihull
St Austell & Nquay
Wells
Birmingham Yadley
Bradord EastBrent Central
Burnley
Hornsey & Wood Gn
Manchester Withn
Norwich South
Marginal seats where the Lib Dems can win
and lose to Labour and the Conservatives.
Majority: 5,586BME Voters: 11,003Majority: 66BME Voters: 1,075Majority: 4,837BME Voters: 10,012Majority: 7,782BME Voters: 7,872Majority: 1,039BME Voters: 3,192
Majority: 523BME Voters: 1,104Majority: 4,091BME Voters: 15,697Majority: 4,156BME Voters: 6,228Majority: 2,305BME Voters: 10,021Majority: 435BME Voters: 1,628Majority: 1,425
BME Voters: 20,765
Win rom Labour
Lose to Labour
Lose to Conservatives
Majority: 3,048BME Voters: 4,019
Majority: 192BME Voters: 1,523
Majority: 3,799
BME Voters: 54,690Majority: 3,274BME Voters: 9,717Majority: 4,734BME Voters: 5,840Majority: 3,067BME Voters: 3,101Majority: 3,569BME Voters: 23,071Majority: 641BME Voters: 5,300
Majority: 8,808BME Voters: 44,329Majority: 4,453BME Voters: 7,931Majority: 3,414BME Voters: 4,137Majority: 1,650BME Voters: 4,757Majority: 103BME Voters: 13,846Majority: 4,581BME Voters: 21,332Majority: 176BME Voters: 7,764
Majority: 889BME Voters: 22,510
Majority: 165BME Voters: 23,612
Majority: 3,259BME Voters: 35,200Majority: 504BME Voters: 6,282
Majority: 6,792BME Voters: 14,631
Majority: 5,260BME Voters: 14,936
Majority: 3,272BME Voters: 7,378Majority: 4,920BME Voters: 4,474Majority: 2,470BME Voters: 2,195Majority: 6,982BME Voters: 7,883Majority: 3,435
BME Voters: 4,438Majority: 3,864BME Voters: 3,725Majority: 269BME Voters: 1,178
Majority: 5,200BME Voters: 12,514Majority: 1,608BME Voters: 14,849
Majority: 800BME Voters: 1,547
Majority: 175BME Voters: 10,000Majority: 1,312BME Voters: 1,212
Majority: 3,002BME Voters: 26,843
Majority: 365BME Voters: 39,063
Majority: 1,818BME Voters: 8,054Majority: 6,875BME Voters: 26,406Majority: 1,894BME Voters: 17,010
Majority: 310BME Voters: 7,066
Majority: 1,346BME Voters: 61,609
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Changing Face o Britain 15
MPs vulnerable to BME vote
Just some o the many MPs in marginal constituencies whose survival means attracting a good share o the BME vote.
Pictured Top (let to right): Ben Bradshaw (L), Jackie Doyle-Price (C), Ed Balls (L), Lynne Featherstone (LD) and Eric Olle-
renshaw (C) & Bottom (let to right): Angie Bray (C), Jack Dromey (L), Julian Huppert (LD), Caroline Lucas (G) and Gavin
Barwell (C).
Many o the most prominent
politicians represent sae
seats, some o which are re-
garded as sae because they
enjoy the support o BME
constituents. However there
are a number o key fgures
who represent marginal seats
who are particularly vulner-
able to the power o the Black
vote.
Perhaps the leading MP wholooks most vulnerable is Labours
Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls in
Morley and Outwood. He has a
tiny majority o 1,101 and 3,271
BME voters.
The majority o leading Conserva-
tives represent sae seats however
several prominent Labour gures
represent marginals and will hope
to win over their BME electorate,
including ormer Labour cabinet
ministers Ben Bradshaw (Exeter)
and Caroline Flint (Don Valley).
Former Labour ministers Geo-rey Robinson (Coventry NW) and
Vernon Coaker (Gedling) are in a
similar position.
For the Liberal Democrats, Home
Lib Dem Home Oce minister Jer-
emy Browne (Taunton Deane), In-
ternational Development minister
Lynne Featherstone (Hornsey &
Wood Green), and Deputy Leader
o the House Tom Brake (Carshal-
ton & Wallington) all need to at-
tract the BME vote i they are to
retain their seats.
The seat most vulnerable to the
Black vote is Hampstead and Kil-
burn. Labours MP, Glenda Jackson,
is retiring so the MP in the second
most vulnerable seat - who is ex-
pected to stand again - is Conser-vative MP Dan Byles.
There are other constituencies
where the BME electorate is signi-
icant in relation to the overall elec-
torate while the seat is classied
in this study airly sae, including
seats represented by Conserva-
tive Culture Secretary Maria Miller
(Basingstoke) and Labours ormer
Home Secretary Jack Straw (Black-
burn).
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Aberconwy
MP: Guto Bebb
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 3,398 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 892
Total BME Population: 1,219 (2.2%)
Asian Voters: 363
Black Voters: 188
Largest BME: White & Black Carib-
bean
BME Impact: Slight
Aldridge-Brownhills
MP: Richard ShepherdParty: Conservative
2010 Majority:15,266 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 3,870
Total BME Population: 5,289 (6.9%)
Asian Voters: 2,303
Black: Voters 1,097
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Slight
Altrincham and Sale
MP: Graham Brady
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 11,595 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 6,762
Total BME Population: 9,240 (9.8%)
Asian Voters: 3,695
Black Voters: 1,327
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Aberavon
MP: Hywel Francis
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 11,039 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 1,168
Total BME Population: 1,596 (2.4%)
Asian Voters: 606
Black Voters: 143
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Alyn and Deeside
MP: Mark TamiParty: Labour
2010 Majority: 2,919 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,076
Total BME Population: 1,471 (1.8%)
Asian Voters: 546
Black Voters: 223
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact:Signicant
Amber ValleyMP: Nigel Mills
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 536 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,036
Total BME Population: 1,416 (1.6%)
Asian Voters: 430
Black Voters: 387
Largest BME: White & Black Carib-
bean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
ArfonMP: Hywel Williams
Party: Plaid Cymru
2010 Majority: 1,455 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,500
Total BME Population: 3,417 (5.6%)
Asian Voters: 901
Black Voters: 334
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Arundel & South DownsMP: Nick Herbert
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 16,691 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,602
Total BME Population: 2,190 (2.3%)
Asian Voters: 814
Black Voters: 406
Largest BME: White & Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Ashfield
MP: Gloria De Piero
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 192 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,523
Total BME Population: 2,082 (2.0%)
Asian: 630
Black: 564
Largest BME: White & Black Carib-bean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Ashford
MP: Damien Green
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 17,297 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,376
Total BME Population: 7,346 (6.5%)
Asian Voters: 2,945
Black Voters: 1,560
Largest BME: AricanBME Impact: Fair
Ashton-under-Lyne
MP: David Heyes
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 9,094 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 8,376
Total BME Population: 11,445
(12.6%)
Asian Voters: 6,305
Black Voters: 1,401Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Signicant
16 Changing Face o England & Wales
Aldershot
MP: Gerald Howarth
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 5,586 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-ure: 11,003
Total BME Population: 15,034
(14.5%)
Asian Voters: 10,326
Black Voters: 3,026
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Seat-by-seat breakdown
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Banbury
MP: Tony Baldry
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 18,227 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 6,545Total BME Population: 8,943 (7.6%)
Asian Voters: 3,654
Black Voters: 1,914
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact: Fair
Barking
MP: Margaret Hodge
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 16,555 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 40,279Total BME Population: 55,036 (45%)
Asian Voters: 16,648
Black Voters: 20,508
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Barnsley East
MP: Michael Dugher
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 11,090 (Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,239
Total BME Population: 1,694 (1.9%)
Asian Voters: 356
Black Voters: 621
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact: Minimal
Barnsley Central
MP: Eric Illsley
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 11,093 (Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dem / Tory
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,686
Total BME Population: 2,304 (2.7%)
Asian Voters: 594
Black Voters: 651
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact: Minimal
Barrow & Furness
MP: John Woodcock
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 5,208 (Marginal)Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,021
Total BME Population: 1,396 (1.6%)
Asian Voters: 506
Black Voters: 209
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Fair
Basildon & Billericay
MP: John Baron
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 12,338 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 4,786
Total BME Population: 6,540 (7.3%)
Asian Voters: 1,905
Black Voters: 2,251
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact: Fairly Signicant
Basingstoke
MP: Maria Miller*
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 13,176 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 7,618
Total BME Population: 10,409 (9.6%)
Asian Voters: 4,110
Black Voters: 2,085
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Bassetlaw
MP: John Mann
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 8,215 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,959
Total BME Population: 2,677 (2.6%)
Asian Voters: 842
Black Voters: 712
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fair
Bath
MP: Don Foster*
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 11,883 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,428
Total BME Population: 7,417 (8.3%)
Asian Voters: 1,974
Black Voters: 1,409Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact:Signicant
Batley & Spen
MP: Mike Wood
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 4,406 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 17,534
Total BME Population: 23,959 (22.2%)
Asian Voters: 16,278
Black Voters: 751Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Battersea
MP: Jane Ellison
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 5,977 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 20,708
Total BME Population: 28,295 (26.5%)
Asian Voters: 5,525
Black Voters: 11,333Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Aylesbury
MP: David Liddington
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 12,618 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 11,231Total BME Population: 15,346
(14.2%)
Asian Voters: 6,823
Black Voters: 3,242
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Signicant
Changing Face o England & Wales 17
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Beckenham
MP: Bob Stewart
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 17,784 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 8,475Total BME Population: 11,580
(13.3%)
Asian Voters: 3,353
Black Voters: 3,414
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Bedford
MP: Richard Fuller
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 1,353 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 18,916Total BME Population: 25,846
(25.6%)
Asian Voters: 11,610
Black Voters: 5,576
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bermsy & Old Southwark
MP: Simon Hughes
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 8,530 (Fairly Sae)Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 38,471
Total BME Population: 52,566
(41.5%)
Asian Voters: 8,499
Black Voters: 21,206
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Berwick-upon-Tweed
MP: Sir Alan Beith
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 2,690 (Marginal)Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 746
Total BME Population: 1,020 (1.3%)
Asian Voters: 344
Black Voters: 231
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Slight
Bethnal Green & Bow
MP: Rushanara Ali
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 11,574 (Fairly Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 48,675
Total BME Population: 66,508
(53.1%)
Asian Voters: 36,168
Black Voters: 7,593
Largest BME: Bangladeshi
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Beverley & HoldernessMP: Gisela Stuart
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 12,987 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,096
Total BME Population: 1,498 (1.5%)
Asian Voters: 524
Black Voters: 286
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Bexhill & BattleMP: Greg Barker
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 12,880 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,075
Total BME Population: 2,836 (2.8%)
Asian Voters: 1,038
Black Voters: 517
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Bexleyheath & CrayfordMP: David Evennett
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 10,344 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 10,213
Total BME Population: 13,955
(15.9%)
Asian Voters: 3,756
Black Voters: 5,060
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Signicant
Birkenhead
MP: Frank Field
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 15,395 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,715
Total BME Population: 3,710 (4.2%)
Asian Voters: 1,356
Black Voters: 554
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Minimal
Birmingham Edgbaston
MP: Gisela Stuart
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 1,274 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 22,142
Total BME Population: 30,254
(31.3%)
Asian Voters: 11,136
Black Voters: 7,415
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Erdington
MP: Jack Dromey
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 3,277 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 19,262
Total BME Population: 26,320
(26.9%)
Asian Voters: 7,543
Black Voters: 10,036
Largest BME: Caribbean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Beaconsfield
MP: Dominic Grieve*
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 21,782 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 9,054Total BME Population: 12,371
(12.4%)
Asian Voters: 6,327
Black Voters: 1,368
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fairly Signicant
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Birmingham Hodge Hill
MP: Liam Byrne**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 10,302 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 57,291Majority Seat: BME Voters 61.1%
Total BME Population: 78,281
(64.3%)
Asian Voters: 44,961
BlackVoters: 9,615
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Northfield
MP: Richard Burden
Party: Labour2010 Majority: 2,782 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 10,508
Total BME Population: 14,358
(14.4%)
Asian Voters: 3,174
Black Voters: 5,624
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Ladywood
MP: Shabana Mahmood
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 10,105 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 67,380Majority Seat: BME Voters 70%
Total BME Population: 92,065
(72.7%)
Asian Voters: 35,479
BlackVoters: 24,195
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Perry Barr
MP: Khalid Mahmood
Party: Labour2010 Majority: 11,908 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 47,282
Majority Seat: BME Voters 57%
Total BME Population: 64,604
(60.3%)
Asian Voters: 30,455
Black Voters: 13,885
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Selly Oak
MP: Steve McCabe
Party: Labour2010 Majority: 3,482 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 17,084
Total BME Population: 23,344
(22.4%)
Asian Voters: 9,036
Black Voters: 5,315
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Yardley
MP: John Hemming
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 3,002 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 26,843
Total BME Population: 36,678 (34.4%)
Asian Voters: 19,026
Black Voters: 5,991
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bishop Auckland
MP: Helen Goodman
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 5,218 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 794
Total BME Population: 1,085 (1.2%)
Asian Voters: 349
Black Voters: 232
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact: Minimal
Blackburn
MP: Jack Straw**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 9,856 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 31,971
Total BME Population: 43,684 (40.7%)
Asian Voters: 29,719
Black Voters: 854
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Blackley & Broughton
MP: Graham Stringer
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 12,303 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 25,903
Total BME Population: 35,394 (32%)
Asian Voters: 12,867Black Voters: 11,663 (10.6%)
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Blackpool N & Cleverleys
MP: Paul Maynard
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 2,150 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,673
Total BME Population: 2,287 (2.7%)
Asian Voters: 839Black Voters: 444
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:Signicant
Blackpool South
MP: Gordon Marsden
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 1,852 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,028
Total BME Population: 2,772 (3.4%)
Asian Voters: 901Black Voters: 575
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Birmingham Hall Green
MP: Roger Godsi
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 3,799 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 54,690Majority Seat: BME Voters 61.3%
Total BME Population: 74,726
(64.5%)
Asian Voters: 42,465
BlackVoters: 6,657
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
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Bracknell
MP: Phillip Lee
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 15,704 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 6,955
Total BME Population: 9,504 (9.1%)
Asian Voters: 3,855
Black Voters: 2,071Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:Signicant
Bradford East
MP: David Ward
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 365 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 39,063
Total BME Population: 53,374
(46.9%)
Asian Voters: 33,631Black Voters: 3,155
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Bradford South
MP: Gerry Sutclie
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 4,622 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-ure: 15,713
Total BME Population: 21,470
(21.1%)
Asian Voters: 11,565
Black Voters: 2,789
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bradford West
MP: Marsha Singh+
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 5,763 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-ure: 52,843
Majority Seat: BME Voters 59.6%
Total BME Population: 72,203
(62.9%)
Asian Voters: 46,315
Black Voters: 3,190
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Braintree
MP: Brooks Newmark
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 16,121 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 2,379
Total BME Population: 3,251 (3.3%)
Asian Voters: 1,050
Black Voters: 755
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Brecon & Radnorshire
MP: Roger Williams
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 3,747 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,038
Total BME Population: 1,419 (2.1%)
Asian Voters: 667
Black Voters: 158
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Fair
Brent Central
MP: Sarah Teather
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 1,345 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 61,609
Majority Seat: BME Voters 57.9%
Total BME Population: 84,180
(61.2%)
Asian Voters: 24,186
Black Voters: 28,591
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Brent North
MP: Barry Gardiner
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 8,028 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 69,015
Majority Seat: BME Voters 70.6%
Total BME Population: 94,300
(73.4%)
Asian Voters: 49,261
Black: Voters 12,836
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Brentford & Isleworth
MP: Mary Macleod
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 1,958 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 39,751
Total BME Population: 54,314
(42.2%)
Asian Voters: 26,581
Black Voters: 7,380Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Brentwood & Ongar
MP: Eric Pickles*
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 16,921 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 3,963
Total BME Population: 5,416 (5.8%)
Asian Voters: 2,004
Black Voters: 1,167
Largest BME: IndianBME Impact: Slight
Bridgend
MP: Madeleine Moon
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 2,263 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,645
Total BME Population: 2,249 (2.8%)
Asian Voters: 828
Black Voters: 365
Largest BME: Other AsianBME Impact:Signicant
Bournemouth West
MP: Conor Burns
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 5,583 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,282
Total BME Population: 7,218 (7.3%)
Asian Voters: 2,388
Black Voters: 1,187
Largest BME: Other Asian (1.4%)
BME Impact:Signicant
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Brigg & Goole
MP: Andrew Percy
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 5,147 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,029
Total BME Population: 1,407 (1.7%)
Asian Voters: 479Black Voters: 272
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fair
Brighton Kemptown
MP: Simon Kirby
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 1,328 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 6,407
Total BME Population: 8,755 (9.6%)
Asian Voters: 2,535Black Voters: 1,970
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Brighton Pavilion
MP: Caroline Lucas
Party: Green
2010 Majority: 1,252 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 8,282
Total BME Population: 11,317
(10.9%)
Asian Voters: 3,207
Black Voters: 2,334
Largest BME: White & Asian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Bristol East
MP: Kerry McCarthy
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 3,722 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 11,426
Total BME Population: 15,613
(16.4%)
Asian Voters: 4,353
Black Voters: 5,666
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bristol North West
MP: Charlotte Leslie
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 3,274 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 9,717
Total BME Population: 13,277
(13.2%)
Asian Voters: 3,954
Black Voters: 4,294
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bristol South
MP: Dawn Primarolo*
Party: Labour2010 Majority: 4,734 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,840
Total BME Population: 7,980 (7.4%)
Asian Voters: 2,024
Black Voters: 2,828
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bristol West
MP: Stephen Williams
Party: Lib Dems2010 Majority: 11,366 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 23,253
Total BME Population: 31,772
(25.5%)
Asian Voters: 6,626
Black Voters: 12,574
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Broadland
MP: Keith Simpson
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 7,292 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,274
Total BME Population: 1,704 (1.8%)
Asian Voters: 573
Black Voters: 364
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Bromley & Chislehurst
MP: Bob Neill
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 13,900 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 10,377
Total BME Population: 14,180 (16%)
Asian Voters: 3,889
Black Voters: 4,557
Largest BME: AricanBME Impact:Signicant
Bromsgrove
MP: Sajid Javid*
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 11,308 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,884
Total BME Population: 3,941 (4.2%)
Asian Voters: 1,509
Black Voters: 846
Largest BME: IndianBME Impact: Slight
Broxbourne
MP: Charles Walker
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 18,804 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 6,931
Total BME Population: 9,471 (9.6%)
Asian Voters: 1,886
Black Voters: 3,720
Largest BME: AricanBME Impact: Fair
Bridgwater & W Somerset
MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 9,249 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,127
Total BME Population: 1,540 (1.4%)
Asian Voters: 535Black Voters: 325
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact: Minimal
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Buckingham
MP: John Bercow*
Party: None (Speaker)
2010 Majority: 12,529 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Independent
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 3,064
Total BME Population: 4,187 (4.3%)
Asian Voters: 1,411Black Voters: 994
Largest BME: White & Asian
BME Impact: Slight
Burnley
MP: Gordon Birtwistle
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 1,818 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 8,054
Total BME Population: 11,005
(12.6%)Asian Voters: 7,159
Black Voters: 387
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Burton
MP: Andrew Griths
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 6,304 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 7,776
Total BME Population: 10,626
(10.3%)
Asian Voters: 5,761
Black Voters: 1,351
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bury North
MP: David Nuttall
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 2,243 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 7,599
Total BME Population: 10,383
(11.9%)
Asian Voters: 5,796
Black Voters: 1,023
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Bury South
MP: Ivan Lewis**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 3,292 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 7,058
Total BME Population: 9,645 (9.9%)
Asian Voters: 3,946
Black Voters: 1,643
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Bury St Edmunds
MP: David Rufey
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 12,380 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,686
Total BME Population: 3,671 (3.2%)
Asian Voters: 1,168
Black Voters: 895
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Fair
Caerphilly
MP: Wayne David
Party: Labour2010 Majority: 10,755 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,208
Total BME Population: 1,651 (1.9%)
Asian Voters: 496
Black Voters: 341
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact: Minimal
Calder Valley
MP: Craig Whittaker
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 6,431 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,607
Total BME Population: 3,563 (3.5%)
Asian Voters: 1,450
Black Voters: 721
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Signicant
Camberwell & PeckhamMP: Harriet Harman**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 17,187 (Ultra Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 50,552
Majority Seat: BME Voters 51.7%
Total BME Population: 69,072
(55.2%)
Asian Voters: 5,950
Black Voters: 37,806
Largest BME: AricanBME Impact:Very Signicant
Camborne & RedruthMP: George Eustice
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 66 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,075
Total BME Population: 1,470 (1.7%)
Asian Voters: 426
Black Voters: 307
Largest BME: White & Asian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
CambridgeMP: Julian Huppert
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 6,792 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 14,631
Total BME Population: 19,992
(17.4%)
Asian Voters: 7,101
Black Voters: 2,284
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Broxtowe
MP: Anna Soubry
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 389 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,633
Total BME Population: 7,697 (8.1%)
Asian Voters: 2,745Black Voters: 1,360
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
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Canterbury
MP: Julian Brazier
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 6,048 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 6,840
Total BME Population: 9,346 (8.6%)
Asian Voters: 2,975Black Voters: 1,888
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Cardiff Central
MP: Jenny Willott
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 4,576 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 12,445
Total BME Population: 17,005
(19.3%)Asian Voters: 6,597
Black Voters: 2,140
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Cardiff North
MP: Jonathan Evans
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 194 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,883
Total BME Population: 8,039 (9.1%)
Asian Voters: 3,132
Black Voters: 1,165
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Cardiff South & Penarth
MP: Alun Michael**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 4,709 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 13,095
Total BME Population: 17,893
(16.7%)
Asian Voters: 5,592
Black Voters: 4,576
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Cardiff West
MP: Kevin Brennan
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 4,751 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 8,357
Total BME Population: 11,419
(12.5%)
Asian Voters: 4,384
Black Voters: 2,268
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Carlisle
MP: John Stevenson
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 853 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,329
Total BME Population: 1,816 (2.1%)
Asian Voters: 987 (1.1%)
Black Voters: 324 (0.4%)
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Carmarthen E & Dinefwr
MP: Jonathan Edwards
Party: Plaid Cymru2010 Majority: 3,481 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 312
Total BME Population: 990 (1.4%)
Asian Voters: 427
Black Voters: 176
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Carmarthen W & Pem S
MP: Simon Hart
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 3,423 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 870
Total BME Population: 1,190
Asian Voters: 652
Black Voters: 248
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fair
Carshalton & Wall ington
MP: Tom Brake*
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 5,260 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 14,936
Total BME Population: 20,408
(21.4%)
Asian Voters: 7,271
Black Voters: 5,661
Largest BME: Other AsianBME Impact:Very Signicant
Castle Point
MP: R Harris
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 7,632 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,003
Total BME Population: 2,738 (3.1%)
Asian Voters: 772
Black Voters: 813
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fair
Central Devon
MP: M Stride
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 9,230 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 921
Total BME Population: 1,259 (1.4%)
Asian Voters: 408
Black Voters: 215
Largest BME: White & Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Cannock Chase
MP: Aidan Burley
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 3,195 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,614
Total BME Population: 2,206 (2.3%)
Asian Voters: 709Black Voters: 577
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact:Signicant
24 Changing Face o England & Wales
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Ceredigion
MP: Mark Williams
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 8,324 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,814
Total BME Population: 2,479 (3.3%)
Asian Voters: 752Black Voters: 394
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Slight
Charnwood
MP: Stephen Dorrell**
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 15,029 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 8,064
Total BME Population: 11,019
(11.6%)Asian Voters: 6,547
Black Voters: 823
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Chatham & Aylesford
MP: Tracey Crouch
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 6,069 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 4,441
Total BME Population: 8,236 (8.5%)
Asian Voters: 2,723
Black Voters: 2,401
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Signicant
Cheadle
MP: Mark Hunter
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 3,272 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 7,378
Total BME Population: 10,081
(11.1%)
Asian Voters: 5,101
Black Voters: 847
Largest BME: Pakistani
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Chelmsford
MP: Simon Burns
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 5,110 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,912
Total BME Population: 8,079 (7.7%)
Asian Voters: 2,889
Black Voters: 1,883
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Chelsea & Fulham
MP: Greg Hands
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 16,722 (Very Sae)Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 17,543
Total BME Population: 23,970
(22.7%)
Asian Voters: 5,819
Black Voters: 5,874
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
Cheltenham
MP: Martin Horwood
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 4,920 (Marginal)Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 4,474
Total BME Population: 6,114 (5.8%)
Asian Voters: 2,350
Black Voters: 1,023
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Chesham & Amersham
MP: Cheryl Gillian
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 16,710 (Very Sae)Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 5,771
Total BME Population: 7,886 (8.5%)
Asian Voters: 4,099
Black Voters: 800
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fair
ChesterfieldMP: Toby Perkins
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 549 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,465
Total BME Population: 3,369 (3.6%)
Asian Voters: 1,037
Black Voters: 950
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:VerySignicant
ChichesterMP: Andrew Tyrie
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 15,877 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,408
Total BME Population: 3,291 (3.2%)
Asian Voters: 1,140
Black Voters: 649
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Chingford & Woodford GnMP: Iain Duncan Smith*
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 12,963 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 17,062
Total BME Population: 23,314
(26.4%)
Asian Voters: 6,866
Black Voters: 7,328
Largest BME: Caribbean
BME Impact:Very Signicant
C Suffolk & N Ipswich
MP: Daniel Poulter
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 13,786 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 3,092
Total BME Population: 4,226 (4.3%)
Asian Voters: 1,177Black Voters: 1,247
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact: Slight
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Chipping Barnet
MP: Theresa Villiers
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 11,927 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 23,081
Total BME Population: 31,537(28.2%)
Asian Voters: 11,770
Black Voters: 5,877
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Chorley
MP: Lindsay Hoyle
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 2,593 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,131
Total BME Population: 2,913 (3.1%)Asian Voters: 1,165
Black Voters: 577
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Signicant
Christchurch
MP: Christopher Chope
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 15,410 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib DemsBME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,332
Total BME Population: 1,850 (2.2%)
Asian Voters: 627
Black Voters: 300
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact: Minimal
Cities of London & Wstr
MP: Mark Field
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 11,076 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: LabourBME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 25,329
Total BME Population: 34,609
(31.5%)
Asian Voters: 9,662
Black Voters: 4,916
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact:Very Signicant
City of Chester
MP: Stephen Mosley
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 2,583 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: LabourBME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,826
Total BME Population: 3,862 (4.2%)
Asian Voters: 1,478
Black Voters: 725
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
City of Durham
MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 3,067 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 3,103
Total BME Population: 4,240 (4.5%)
Asian Voters: 1,381
Black Voters: 472
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Clacton
MP: Douglas Carswell
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 12,068 (Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,597
Total BME Population: 2,183 (2.6%)
Asian Voters: 580
Black Voters: 614
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact: Minimal
Cleethorpes
MP: Martin Vickers
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 4,298 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,417
Total BME Population: 1,937 (2.1%)
Asian Voters: 665
Black Voters: 326
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact: Fair
Clwyd South
MP: Susan Elan Jones
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 2,834 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 930
Total BME Population: 1,271 (1.8%)
Asian Voters: 404
Black Voters: 312
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact: Fair
Clwyd West
MP: David Jones
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 6,419 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,308
Total BME Population: 1,788 (2.4%)
Asian Voters: 600
Black Voters: 240
Largest BME: Chinese
BME Impact: Slight
Colchester
MP: Sir Bob Russell
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 6,982 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 7,883
Total BME Population: 10,771 (9.9%)
Asian Voters: 3,311
Black Voters: 2,298
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Chippenham
MP: Duncan Hames
Party: Lib Dems
2010 Majority: 2,470 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,195
Total BME Population: 3,000 (3.3%)Asian Voters: 911
Black Voters: 884
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact:Signicant
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Congleton
MP: Fiona Bruce
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 7,063 (Fairly Sae)
Nearest challenger: Lib Dems
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 1,219
Total BME Population: 1,666 (1.8%)
Asian Voters: 578Black Voters: 289
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Minimal
Corby
MP: Louise Mench (nee Bagshawe)+
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 1,895 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - AdjustedFigure: 2,956
Total BME Population: 4,039 (3.7%)
Asian Voters: 1,064
Black Voters: 1,332
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Copeland
MP: Jamie Reed
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 3,833 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 949
Total BME Population: 1,297 (1.6%)
Asian Voters: 493Black Voters: 208
Largest BME: Other Asian
BME Impact: Fair
Coventry North East
MP: Bob Ainsworth**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 11,775 (Very Sae)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-ure: 26,654
Total BME Population: 36,420 (33%)
Asian Voters: 17,000
Black Voters: 7,377
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Coventry North West
MP: Georey Robinson**
Party: Labour
2010 Majority: 6,288 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-ure: 13,486
Total BME Population: 18,428
(18.3%)
Asian Voters: 8,364
Black Voters: 3,458
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Coventry South
MP: Jim Cunningham
Party: Labour2010 Majority: 3,845 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Conservative
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 20,553
Total BME Population: 28,083
(26.6%)
Asian Voters: 11,417
Black Voters: 5,543
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Crawley
MP: Henry Smith
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 5,928 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 15,674
Total BME Population: 21,417
(20.1%)
Asian Voters: 10,401
Black Voters: 3,578
Largest BME: Indian
BME Impact:Very Signicant
Crewe & Nantwich
MP: Edward Timpson
Party: Conservative2010 Majority: 6,046 (Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted
Figure: 2,885
Total BME Population: 3,942 (3.7%)
Asian Voters: 1,207
Black Voters: 1,071
Largest BME: White & Black Caribbean
BME Impact:Signicant
Croydon CentralMP: Gavin Barwell
Party: Conservative
2010 Majority: 2,879 (Ultra Marginal)
Nearest challenger: Labour
BME Voters in 2015 - Adjusted Fig-
ure: 32,389
Total BME Population: 44,256
(38.6%)
Asian Voters: 10,664
Black Voters: 18,182
Largest BME: Arican
BME Impact:Very Signica