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Letter of Transmittal
Date: October 30th, 2009
Sir Rafique
Instructor, Economic development,
KUBS
Dear Sir,
With reference to the topic assigned, this report is being submitted to you on
October 31st 2009, as requested. It is based on the Power sector
development. The report has been drafted to provide a perspective on the
past considerations and current scenario of power development in Pakistan.
The report includes the supply and demand of the electricity and methods of
electricity generation and their respective sectorial distribution. The report
also includes the expansion plan of government regarding the power
development in Pakistan.
We have tried our level best to use the basic concepts taught in this course.
Hope you enjoy viewing our work and it is satisfactory.
Thank You
Sincerely,
Shazhad Rafique # 25
Sohaib Akram # 13
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Table of contents
S.NO. PARTICULARS PAGENO.
1 Introduction 3
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2 Overview of electricity sector 4
3 Installed generation capacity 6
4 Supply sources of electricity 7
1.WAPDA 7
2.KESC 11
3.Nuclear Energy 11
4.Independent power projects 12
5 Transmission &Distribution 146 Consumption of electricity 15
7 Growth in consumers 17
8 Village electrification 19
9 Expansion of generating
capacities
21
10 conclusion 21
INTRODUCTION
Pakistans energy infrastructure is under-developed, insufficient and poorly
managed.PresentlyPakistan has been facing severe energy crisis. Despite strong economicgrowth and rising energy demand during the past decade, no serious effortshave been made to install new capacity of generation. Consequently, thedemand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenonthrough power shutdown. Pakistan needs around 14,000 to 15,000 MWelectricity per day, and the demand is likely rise to approximately to 20,000MW per day by 2010. Presently, it can produce about 11,500 MW per day
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and there is a shortfall of about 3000 to 4000 MW per day. This shortage isbadly affecting industry, commerce, daily life and posing risks to theeconomic growth. The overall requirement of Pakistan is expected to beabout 80 MTOE in 2010, up by 50% from the 54 MTOE of the current year.During the past 25 years energy supply in Pakistan has been increased by
about 40 times but still the demand outstrips supply. With the increase ineconomic activities, per capita energy consumption had also been increased.Industrialization, growth in agriculture and services sectors, urbanization,rising per capita income and rural electrification has resulted in aphenomenal rise in energy demand (NBP, 2008). Inefficient use of energyand its wastages has further widened the demand-supply gap and exertsstrong pressure on the energy resources in the country. The annual growthof primary energy supply increased from 3.17% to 4.3% during 1997-98 to2006-07. The share of natural gas reached to 48.5%, followed by oil 30.0%,hydro electricity 12.6%, coal 7.3%, nuclear electricity 0.9%, LPG 0.5% andimported electricity by 0.1% during the year 2006-07.
In Pakistan the current energy crisis stems from the decline in hydro sourcesof energy and over reliance on the expansive source of electricity. Presently,oil-based thermal plants accounts for 68% of generating capacity,hydroelectric plants for 30% and nuclear plants for only 2% This has led to ahuge generation costs, which in turn adversely affect the economy over thepast eight years. Rise in the oil prices pushing electricity tariff very high. As aresult, manufacturing costs and inflation are at the rising trend, exportcompetitiveness is eroded and the pressure on the balance of payments isincreasing. These factors adversely affect the present growth trajectory ofthe economy .
OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN PAKISTAN
At the time of independence in 1947, the power generation capacity ofPakistan was only 60 MW for a population of 31.5 million, with a per capitaconsumption of 4.5 units. However, the power sector gained momentum in
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1970, and the installed capacity rose from 636 MW in 1970 to 1331 MW in1975. In 1980, the system capacity touched 3000 MW, and thereafter itrapidly grew to over 8000 MW by 19901991 (Government of Pakistan,2008).
At present, electricity demand is 13,021 MW, which is expected to increasein the coming years. Responsibility for the generation and supply ofelectricity rests with two utilitiesthe Pakistan Water and PowerDevelopment Authority (WAPDA) and the Karachi Electricity SupplyCorporation (KESC).WAPDA supplies electricity throughout the country whileKESC is responsible for supplying electricity to Karachi and its adjoiningareas. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission owns nuclear power plants,which are connected to WAPDA and KESC networks. The Independent PowerPlants (IPPs) are connected to the national grids at various locations.
The total installed generation capacity is around 19,420 MW and the
customer base is about 17.73 million in 20072008 (Government of Pakistan,2008). The current installed capacity of electricity is about 19,420 MW.During the year 20062007, the power system generated 98,213 million kWhof electricity (Table 6) of which 64.3 per cent comes from thermal plants,while hydroelectricity and nuclear power account for 33.4 and 2.4 per cent,respectively. Pakistans total generation capacity has increased rapidly dueto the establishment of IPPs; this almost eliminated the power shortage inthe 1990s. The supply of hydroelectricity is season dependent and decreasesby about 30004000 MW when the water level in the dams gets low duringwinter. The effective generating capacity of WAPDAs power plants hasdecreased slightly. In the past several years, the installed capacity has been
insufficient to meet the demand. Current supply is estimated at 15,055 MWagainst demand of more than 17,600 MW.A deficit of 2500 MW was recordedthrough load shedding, which reduced the industrial growth and adverselyaffected the economy. Many villages do not enjoy access to electricity, andonly 60 per cent of the population are connected to the national grid.
During the period 19702000, the industrial sector consumed 35 percent ofelectricity, followed by households (33 per cent), agriculture sector (17 percent), 8 per cent by bulk and the commercial sector by 6 per cent. However,during 20012006, the electricity consumption of households dramaticallyincreased to 47 per cent. During the same period, the industrial and
agriculture sectors consumption reduced to 33 and 11 per cent, respectively.Commercial sector consumption remained at 6 per cent while bulk share inconsumption reduced to 6 per cent. Similarly, during 20062007, householdelectricity consumption remained dominant (46 per cent), followed byindustrial sector (29 per cent), agriculture sector (11 per cent), commercialsector (7 per cent), bulk supplies (6 per cent) and street lights (1 per cent)(Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2007). Thus, the hugeincrease in household consumption of electricity is the major reason for the
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demandsupply gap. The total installed power generation capacity isinsufficient to meet the growing needs of the country and has hit theeconomy badly. The growing electricity demandsupply gap has forced theauthorities to resort to load shedding for very long duration. This hasadversely affected the public, businesses and trading communities. To tackle
the power crisis, the government has to come up with mega hydroelectricprojects and encourage domestic and foreign investors to invest in theenergy sector and extend and improve the nuclear power generation.
Installed Capacity of Electricity by source
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Sectorial Consumption of Electricity from 1970-2000
INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY
In 1947 the total installed generation capacity, hydro and thermal was 70MW, 60 MW in now WAPDA system and 10 MW in Karachi. It is 19754 MW in2009, hydro 6555 MW; thermal 13119 MW which includes conventionalsteam and combined cycle power plants and nuclear 462 MW ownerPakistan atomic energy commission.The total installed generation capacity of WAPDA in 2008-09 is 11,454 MW,including 6,555 Hydel and 4,899 Thermal. Other sources of generation areKESC 1,884 MW and IPPs 5,954 MW.
Total Installed Generation Capacity(MW)
Power Company Installed
Capacity(2008-
2009)
Share(%)
1. WAPDA 11,454 58
2. Hydel 6,555 57.2 (share in WAPDA
System)
3. Thermal 4,899 42.8 (share in WAPDASystem)
4. KESC 1,884 9.5
5. IPPs 5,954 30.1
6. Nuclear 462 2.3
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2002-03 22,350 34.9 41,690 65.1 64,064
2003-04 27,477 39.8 41,617 60.2 69,094
2004-05 25,671 34.9 47,849 65 73,520
2005-06 30,855 37.5 51,370 62.5 82,225
2006-07 31,942 36.4 55,895 63.6 87,837
2007-08 28,667 33.23 57,602 66.77 86,269
July-March
2007-08 21,606 33.5 42,963 66.5 64,569
2008-09 20,665 33.7 40,653 66.3 61,318
Source: PEPCO
WAPDA THERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION
WAPDA's Thermal Power Generation is mainly based on generation of power
from its Steam Turbo-Generators, Gas Turbines (simple as well as Combined
Cycle Units) installed at different Power Stations located in Sindh, Punjab and
Balochistan provinces. Indigenous Gas & Coal is the main fuel whereasFurnace oil and HSD are also used as alternative fuel. The total installed
capacity is 4664 MW.
Thermal power plants generated a total of 21.593 Billion units (kwh) of
energy during the year 2006-07. The energy generated during 2008 was
62% on gas,37% on furnace oil and 1% on coal.
As per Government of Pakistan policy all thermal power generation has been
restructured and four corporative companies namely Jamshoro Power
Generation Company Limited (GENCO-1) head quarter at Jamshoro district
Dadu near Hyderabad Sindh, Central Power Generation Company Limited
(GENCO-2) head quarter at Guddu district Jacobabad Sindh and Northern
Power Generation Company Limited (GENCO-3) head quarters at
Muzaffargarh and Lakhra Power Generation Company Limited (GENCO-IV) at
Khanote (Sindh) have been formed and registered. Functioning of GENCOs
has commenced.
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WAPDA HYDEL ELECTRICITY GENERATION
As a consequence of partition of the Indo-Pakistan Sub-Continent in 1947,India and Pakistan became two independent sovereign states. Hydelgeneration capacity of only 10.7 MW (9.6 MW - Malakand Power Station & 1.1MW - Renala Power Station) existed in the territory of Pakistan. With thepassage of time, new Hydel Power Projects of Small and Medium capacitieswere commissioned including the first water storage dam and power houseat Warsak due to which country's Hydel capability raised to about 267 MWup till 1963. The Irrigation System which existed at the time of partition in1947 was divided between the two countries without any regards to theirrigation boundaries which resulted in an international water dispute whichwas finally resolved by signing of the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 under the
aegis of World Bank. The Treaty assigned three Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beasand Sutlej) to India and three Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum & Chenab) toPakistan. It also provided construction of replacement works called IndusBasin Projects (IBP) to compensate for perpetual loss of Eastern rivers' water.The works proposed under the Treaty included two multipurpose dams i.e.Mangla Dam on Jhelum river and Tarbela Dam on Indus river having theprovision of power generation. These were commissioned in 1967 & 1977respectively. However, their capacities were subsequently extended indifferent phases
HYDEL GENERATION CAPACITY
The total capacity of 13 No. Hydel Stations as of today is 6444 MW which is35.88% of total installed generation capacity of WAPDA. During 2008~2009,aggregate energy sharing during the year was 33.07%.
SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF HYDEL GENERATION
The seasonal variations of reservoir levels and consequent reduction inPower outputs of storage type hydel projects in Pakistan are verypronounced. Tarbela with maximum head of 450 ft. experiences variation of181 ft. while Mangla has 162 ft. variation against the maximum head of 360ft.
The lean flow period of Tarbela reservoir is from November to June when the
Capability reduces to as low as about 1884 MW against the maximum of3714 MW during high head period i.e. August to September (15% permissibleoverloading on Units 1~10).
Lean flow period of Mangla reservoir is observed from October to Marchwhen the minimum generating capability is 496 MW. The capability rises toas high as 1150 MW during 'high head' period (15% permissible overloading).
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In all, WAPDA's Hydel generating capability varies between the twoextremities of 3506 MW and 6750 MW over the cycle of a year.
SALIENT FEATURES OF WAPDA HYDEL STATIONSStation Water Way
(River/Canal)Units No. Capacity of
Unit(MW)
InstalledCapacity
(MW)
Date ofCommissioning
Tarbela Indus(Reservoir)
1~45~89~10
1112~14
175175175432432
Total
700700350432
12963478
Jul. 1977Dec. 1982Apr. 1985Feb. 1993Nov.1992
Barotha Indus(D/S Tarbela)
12
345
290290
290290290
Total
290290
290290290
1450
July. 2003Aug. 2003
Oct. 2003Dec. 2003
April. 2004
Mangla Jhelum(Reservoir)
1~45~67~8
910
100100100100100
Total
400200200100100
1000
1967 - 1969Mar. 1974Apr. 1981Sep. 1993Jul. 1994
Warsak Kabul(Reservoir)
1~45~6
40.041.48Total
16083243
Jul. 1960Mar. 1981
Chashma Chashma(Barrage)
12~34~5
67~8
2323232323
Total
2346462346184
Jun. 2001Apr. 2001Mar. 2001Feb. 2001Dec. 2000
RasulUpper Jhelum Canal from River
Jhelum1~2 11.0 22.0 Jul. 1952
DargaiSwat canal from River Swat 1~4 5.0 20.0 Dec.1952
NandipurUpper Chenab Canal from River
Chenab
1~3 4.6 13.8 Mar. 1963
ShadiwalUpper Jhelum Canal from River
Jhelum1~2 6.75 13.5 Jan. 1961
ChichokiUpper Chenab Canal from River
Chenab1~3 4.4 13.2 Aug. 1959
RenalaLower Bari Doab Canal fromBalloki Headworks on Ravi
1~5 0.22 1.1 Mar. 1925
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K/GarhiKachkot Canal from River
Kurram1~4 1.0 4.0 Feb. 1958
ChitralLudko 1~2
3~40.30.2
Total
0.60.41.0
19751982
2.KARACHI ELECTRIC SUPPLY COMPANY (KESC):
KESC fleet has 1890 MWs of installed capacity to cater to the city loadrequirement. The main generation units consisting of Bin Qasim PowerStation, Korangi Thermal Power Station, Site Gas Turbines and Korangi GasTurbines, with a new power plant at Korangi (Combined Cycle PowerPlant).Presently the situation is as under
S.No.
Name of Power Plant Location AvailableCapacity
(MW)
1 Bin Qasim PowerStation
Port Qasim IndustrialArea
1021
2 Korangi Thermal PowerStation
Korangi Creek 55
3 GEJB- 1 SITE, Karachi 80
4 GEJB- 2 Korangi IndustrialArea
35
5 Combined Cycle PowerStation
Korangi Creek 160
GRAND TOTAL=1351
3.NUCLEAR ENERGY:
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is responsible for the planning,construction and operation of nuclear power plants in the country. Presently,two nuclear power plants; KarachiNuclear Power Plant (K-1) and Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit-1 (C-1) areoperational, whileconstruction of a third plant, Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit-2 (C-2), is inprogress. K1, has
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been in commercial operation since 1971. After completing its design life of30 years, K-1 isoperating on extended life at 90 MWe. K-1 generated 317 million kWh ofelectricity duringthe period July-March 2008-09, raising its life-time generation to 12.21 billion
kWh. C-1, a PWR type plant with a gross capacity of 325 MWe, and has beenin commercial operation since September 2000. C-1 generated 602 millionkWh of electricity during July-March 2008-09, raising its lifetime generationto 16.86 billion kWh. The construction and installation activities of C-2 are inprogress as per schedule. The commercial operation of C-2 is expected in2011.
In Pakistan, nuclear power makes a small contribution to total energyproduction and requirements, supplying only 2.34% of the country'selectricity. Total generating capacity is 20 GWe and in 2006, 98 billion kWhgross was produced, 37% of it from gas, 29% from oil.
Its first nuclear power reactor is a small (125 MWe) Canadian pressurizedheavy water reactor (PHWR) which started up in 1971 and which is underinternational safeguards - KANUPP near Karachi, which is operated atreduced power.
The second unit is Chashma-1 in Punjab, a 325 MWe (300 MWe net)pressurised water reactor (PWR) supplied by China's CNNC under safeguards.The main part of the plant was designed by Shanghai Nuclear EngineeringResearch and Design Institute (SNERDI), based on Qinshan-1. It started up inMay 2000 and is also known as CHASNUPP-1.Construction of its twin,Chashma-2, started in December 2005. It is reported to cost PKR 51.46
billion (US$ 860 million, with $350 million of this financed by China). Asafeguards agreement with IAEA was signed in 2006 and grid connection isexpected in 2011.
Reacto
r
Typ
e
MW
e
net
Construct
ion start
Commer
cial
operatio
n
Plann
ed
close
Karach
i
PHW
R
125 1966 12/72
Chash
ma 1
PWR 300 1993 6/00
Chash
ma 2
PWR 300 2005 2011
Total 425 operating
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5. INDEPENDENT POWER PROJECTS:
The 17 largest independent power producers in Pakistan all operate thermal
generating plants only . The two largest privately owned power producersare the HUB Company (HUBCO) and the Kot Addu Power Company (KAPCO).HUBCO belongs to a consortium formed by National Power (Great Britain),Xenal (Saudi Arabia) and Mitsui Corporation (Japan) and possesses just under1,300 MW of generating capacity. KAPCO, with more than 1,600 MW ofpower generating capacity, was privatized in 1996 and now belongs to theBritish enterprise National Power. Between 1994 and 1997, 19 IPP projectsamounting to an overall capacity of 3,158 MW and a total investment volumeof some US$ 4 billion were awarded competitive bidding contracts. By theend of March 2003, 2,728 MW of the total had already been installed. Thepower-producing volume was so large that the Pakistani electricity market
began to exhibit intermittent overcapacities. The city of Karachi receives allits electricity from KESC, while WAPDA serves the rest of the country. In themedium to long term, though, the sale of electricity is also supposed to beliberalized.
Detail of the IPPs Projects commissioned and under commercialoperations is as under
Sr.
#
Name of
Project
Technology Commercial
Operation
Date
Gross
Capacity
(MW)
Net
Capacity
(MW)
Energy Received
July, 2006 to June,
2007 (GWh)
1 KAPCO GTs, Combined
cycle, Steam
Turbine on
LSFO/Gas/ Diesel
27.06.1996 1638 1345 8183
2 Hubco Steam Turbine on
Fuel Oil
31.03.1997 1292 1207.3 7212
3 Kohinoor
Energy Ltd
Diesel engines on
fuel oil
20.06.1997 131 124 806
4 AES Lalpir Steam turbines on
fuel oil
06.11.1997 362 350.7 1356
5 AES Pakgen Steam turbines on
fuel oil
01.02.1998 365 350.5 1943
6 Southern
Electric
Diesel engines on
fuel oil
10.03.1999 117 103.791 539
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Power
7 Habibullah
Coastal
Power
Combined cycle on
natural gas
11.09.1999 140 129.15 966
8 Fauji
Kabirwala
Power
Combined cycle on
gas
21.10.1999 157 151.2 1184
9 Rousch
(Pakistan)
Power
Combined cycle on
fuel oil
11.12.1999 450 395 3090
10 Saba Power Steam turbine on
fuel oil
31.12.1999 134 125.55 868
11 Japan Power
Generation
Diesel engines on
fuel oil
14.03.2000 135 107.0 528
12 Uch Power Combined cycle on
low Btu gas
18.10.2000 586 551.25 3889
13 Altern
Energy
Flared gas/Gas
Engine
06.06.2001 10.5
5.13 0
14 Liberty
Power
Combined cycle on
natural gas
10.09.2001 235 210.341 1305
15 CHASNUPP Nuclear 325 300 1944
16 JAGRAN Hydel 23.10.2000 30 30 96
17 RETNAL
POWER
STATION
Gas Turbine 22.02.2007 150 150 213
18 TAVANIR,
IRAN
Import from Iran Sep. 2003 39 39 171
Total: 6296.5 5674.912 34293
TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
In 1947, we had only 1200 KMs Transmission Lines. The total length of
transmission lines now stands about 4665 Km. WAPDA's Power Transmission
Lines system is interconnected through a National Grid which extends power
from Peshawar to Karachi - Quetta and Azad Kashmir linking all important
cities of the country.
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There are 9 Distribution Supply Companies namely Each Distribution
Company is headed by Chief Executive. Area of Jurisdiction in respect of each
Distribution Company is as under
Name ofDistributio
n
Company
Area of Jurisdiction
LESCO Sheikhupura , Kasur , Lahore , Okara .
GEPCO Gujranwala, Sialkot, Mandi Bahauddin ,
Hafizabad , Narowal , Gujrat .
FESCO Faisalabad , Sargodha , Khushab , Jhang , Toba
Tek Singh , Bhalwal , Mianwali , BhakkarDistricts of Punjab Province .
IESCO Islamabad , Rawalpindi , Attock , Jhelum ,
Chakwal .
MEPCO Rahim Yar Khan , Multan , Khanewal , Sahiwal,
Pakpattan , Vehari , Muzaffargarh , Dera Ghazi
Khan , Leiah , Rajan Pur , Bahawalpur , Lodhran
, Bahawalnagar .
PESCO Whole Province of NWFP .
HESCO Whole Province of Sindh except Karachi where
KESC is responsible for distribution of power .
QESCO Whole Province of Balochistan .
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CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY
With the sole exception of fiscal year 1998/99, power consumption hasgrown steadily in recentyears. Between 1990/91 and 2003/04, total consumption increased by morethan 84%, from 31 TWh to 57 TWh. Again, with a single exception - fiscalyear 1990/91 the domestic sector was the consumer group with the largestproportion of consumption, followed by industry and agriculture. The demandfor electricity will continue to rise in the years to come. An average annualincrease of 7% has been postulated.
After recording at an average rate of 6.1 percent per annum since 1999-00to 2007-08, the electricity consumption by different sectors increased merely
by 0.7 percent during July-March 2008-09 against the comparable period lastyear. This trend of the decelerating growth of electricity consumption startedin 2006-07. With the exception of Other Government Sector, all remainingsectors witnessed a negative growth during July-March 2008-09 over thesame period last year. Reduction in consumption of electricity by differentsectors is due to a shortage of electricity, its higher cost due to gradualphasing out of a subsidy on electricity, and the circular debt problem.
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CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY
Fiscal
Year
ELECTRICITY (Gwh) Increase (%)
1998-99 43,296 -
1999-00 45,586 5.3
2000-01 48,584 6.6
2001-02 50,622 4.2
2002-03 52,656 4.0
2003-04 57,491 9.2
2004-05 61,327 6.7
2005-06 67,603 10.2
2006-07 72,712 7.6
2007-08 73,400 0.9
Avg. 10Yrs
6.1
CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTORS Gwh (000)
Year Househ
old
Gwh(000)
Commer
cial
Gwh(00
0)
Industri
al
Gwh(00
0)
Agricult
ure
Gwh(00
0)
Street
Light
Gwh
Other
Govt.
Gwh(00
0)
1998-99 19.4 2.4 12.0 5.6 224 3.6
1999-00 21.4 2.5 13.2 4.5 239 3.6
2000-01 22.8 2.8 14.3 4.9 213 3.5
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2001-02 23.2 3.0 15.1 5.6 212 3.5
2002-03 23.7 3.2 16.2 6.0 244 3.4
2003-04 25.8 3.7 17.4 6.7 262 3.7
2004-05 27.6 4.1 18.6 7.0 305 3.8
2005-06 30.7 4.7 19.8 7.9 353 4.0
2006-07 33.3 5.4 21.1 8.2 387 4.4
2007-08 33.7 5.6 20.7 8.5 415 4.5
GROWTH IN CONSUMERS
The pattern of consumption underwent a gradual transformation during theperiod 196098 The major beneficiaries of power sector development inPakistan were the general populace, i.e., the households. Its share went from12.81 percent in 1960 to 42.08 percent in 1998.
Electricity Used By Consumers Category(MLN Kilowatt Hours)
Year Domesti
c
Commer
cial
Industri
al
Agricult
ure
Others Total
1959-
1960
120 66 531 67 77 860
1964-
1965
258 179 1409 277 278 2401
1969-
1970
546 337 2299 965 590 4737
1974-
1975
917 468 3056 1539 851 6831
1979-
1980
2012 595 4056 2067 1069 9799
1984- 5091 1375 6317 2795 2030 17608
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1985
1989-
1990
9402 1964 10333 5027 2469 29195
1994-
1995
15583 1941 12528 6252 5360 41664
1997-
1998
18724 2333 12297 7004 4143 44501
Source: WAPDA & KESC power system statistics
With the expansion of the electricity network, the number of consumers hasincreased by 7,675
thousands since 1998-99. During July-march 2008-09, the growth ofconsumers stood at 4.2 percent as it reached 18.5 million consumers duringJuly- March 2008-09 as compared to 17.7 million in same period last year.The share of domestic consumers remained 84.9 percent followed by thecommercial and industrial sectors having a 12.3 percent and a 1.4 percentshare respectively
CONSUMERS BY ECONOMIC GROUP(thousands)
Year Domesti
c
Commerc
ial
Industri
al
Agricultu
ral
Others Total
1998-99 8,912 1,517 190 173 8 10,800
1999-00 9,554 1,654 195 175 8 11,586
2000-01 10,045 1,737 196 180 8 12,166
2001-02 10,483 1,803 200 184 8 12,678
2002-03 11,044 1,867 206 192 9 13,318
2003-04 11,737 1,935 210 199 10 14,092
2004-05 12,490 1,983 212 201 10 14,896
2005-06 13,390 2,068 222 220 10 15,911
2006-07 14354 2,152 233 236 11 16,987
2007-08 15,226 2,229 242 245 11 17,955
Source:WAPDA & KESC power system statistics
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VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION
Pakistans increasing demand for energy is due in part to efforts designed topromote the process of rural electrification. Until 1995/96, the number ofvillages with access to grid power grew by 9 to 11% annually. Since then,however, the increasing connection costs have driven the growth rate downto about 2% per year. As of March 2003, approximately 73,000 (59%) ofPakistans roughly 125,000 villages were receiving electricity (compared withapproximately 46,000 villages, or 37%, in mid-1993. Recently theGovernment of Pakistan has publicly announced an ambitious plan to provide
basic power to all the citizens through out the country by the end of 2007.About 67.0 percent of the population of the country resides in rural areaswith agriculturebeing the main occupation Keeping this fact in view and inorder to increase the productivity of amajority of the population, the villageelectrification programme is being highlighted as acentral component of thetotal power sector development programme. The number of villageselectrified has increased to 66,280 since 1998-99. Furthermore, the villageelectrification facility has increased by 5.7 percent during the period of July-March 2008-09 as compared to same period last year. The detailed trend ofvillage electrification is.
VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION (in numbers)
Year Total Cumulative Total
Pre WAPDA 609 609
1960-1963 1041 1650
1964-1968 557 2207
1969-1973 719 2926
1974-1978 4691 7617
1979-1983 7622 15239
1984-1988 12452 27691
1989-1993 17953 45644
1994-1997 18924 64568
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1997-1998 1383 65951
VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION (in numbers)
Year Addition
during the
year
Progressive
total
Growth(%)
1998 1,232 67,183
1999 1,109 68,292 1.7
2000 1,595 69,887 2.3
2001 1,674 71,561 2.4
2002 2,246 73,807 3.1
2003 7,193 81,000 9.7
2004 9,467 90,467 11.7
2005 12,764 103,231 14.1
2006 14,203 117,456 13.8
2007 10,441 127,897 8.9
July-March
2007-08 8,840 126,296
2008-09 5,566 133,463 5.7
The electrification of villages manifests transformation of the rural economyin checking the influx of rural workforce in search of work to the already
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populous cities and towns where the essential services supplied by theutilities are already over capacitated
EXPANSION OF GENERATING CAPACITIES (FUTUREOUTLOOK)
By reason of the projected increase in the demand for electricity by some10,000 MW by the year 2010. To keep that from happening, or at least tominimize future supply deficits, Pakistan has adopted a systematicdevelopment plan called Vision 2025 that targets a long-term capacityincrease of around 35,000 MW by the year 2025. That would be nearly twiceas much power as was available at the end of 2002. Around two thirds of theadditional power (22,563 MW) is slated to come from hydroelectric powerplants. New gas-fired power plants are supposed to contribute 13% (4,680MW), the same percentage as that to be generated by coal fired powerplants (4,350 MW). New nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity
of 1,800 MW (5%) are planned3. Finally, renewable sources of energy aresupposed to account for more than 4% (1,500 MW) of the overall newlyinstalled capacity. The planned expansion will cost approximately US$ 30billion. In view of Pakistan's high national debt and persistent budget deficit,the government is intensifying its efforts to attract private investors.
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CONCLUSION
In Pakistan the current energy crisis stems from the decline in hydro sourcesof energy and over reliance on the expansive source of electricity. Presently,
oil-based thermal plants accounts for 68% of generating capacity,
hydroelectric plants for 30% and nuclear plants for only 2%This has led to a huge generation costs, which in turn adversely affect theeconomy over the past eight years. Rise in the oil prices pushing electricity
tariff very high. As a result, manufacturing costs and inflation are at therising trend, export competitiveness is eroded and the pressure on the
balance of payments is increasing. These factors adversely affect the presentgrowth trajectory of the economy.
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