5-2-2013

1

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

T w i c e a s M u c h F o o d - T w i c e t h e Q u a l i t y H a l f t h e R e s o u r c e s

Metropolitan Food Supply in the Russian Federation

World Trade Center Rotterdam, 24 th of January 2013

Ate Oostra

Chair MFS Foundation

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2 Bron: rapport Topsector Agro & Food, okt 2011

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Global Challenges for Food Security

brief introduction

Metropolitan Food Security (MFS) platform

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Globally, increasing demand ; pressure on local food systems

Population Growth (9 billion inhabitants in 2050 ?)

Growing purchasing power--> changing consumption pattern; more consumption of proteins

Climate Change (droughts, floodings etc…); need for sustainable food production practices.

Cost and availability of inputs, energy, water, and arable land;

need for efficient food production practices

5-2-2013

2

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Stichting Onderzoek Wereldvoedselvoorziening van de Vrije Universiteit

5

25

50

100

500

2500

5000

Population Density Inh./km2

Time

Pop

ula

tion

(bln

)

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1950 1975 2000 2025

Growth urban (red) and rural (green) population

• Metropoles are the nodes

of the 21th century network economy • Agro production is in transition towards

metropolitan agriculture • The distinction between urban

and rural areas within metropoles is vanishing

• Spatial organization of industrial agro production systems is still based on traditional land dependant forms

The world is urbanising

Source: St. Onderzoek Wereldvoedselvoorziening

(2009) J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2 Source: World Health Organization (2002)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1964 - 1966 1997 - 1999 2030

Per capita consumption meat (kg/year)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1964 - 1966 1997 - 1999 2030

Per capita consumption milk (kg/year)

World Developing countries

Industrialized countries Transition countries

More people, less land

Agricultural land (1,000 ha) Global population (in millions)

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total population Rural population

Urban population

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

4.200

4.300

4.400

4.500

4.600

4.700

4.800

4.900

5.000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

Agricultural land area

Agricultural land area per capita

Source: FAO Stat Source: FAO Stat, Rabobank

Growing meat demand, move to poultry

8

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Turkey Beef Pork Broiler

1,000 tonnes

Broiler CAGR: +9.7%

Pork CAGR: +7.0%

Beef CAGR: +3.8%

Broiler CAGR: +2.0%

Pork CAGR: -7.0%

Beef CAGR: -8.8%

Meat: CAGR: -6.0%

Meat: CAGR: +6.4%

28%

34%

36%

12%

35%

53%

Transformation years Rebuilding years Economic crisis

CAGR: +2.9%

CAGR: +1.4%

CAGR: -2.2%

CAGR: +0.9%

Russia meat market 1990-2012

5-2-2013

3

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Economic and demographic trends drive up food demand:

◦ Impact on water, land, natural resources

◦ Environment

◦ Social-political impact (‘Arab spring’)

Solutions

◦ Reduce inefficiencies and (post harvest) losses

◦ Put sustainable food production centrally

◦ Embrace technology to scale up production; enhance efficiency

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Imports: ◦ Trade barriers: customs duties – phytosanitairy regulations – deviating

standards – non-tariff barriers

◦ Lack of transparency in regulations

Rural Production ◦ depending on land size, requires good infrastructure

Urban Production: ◦ Close to consumer, dilemma: production push/demand pull

◦ From farm to fork or fork to farm?

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Worlds second exporter of ‘green’ products (after US) in terms of

added value

Destination: 60 % within competitive EU market; so we can

compete

Result of interaction between hardware, orgware and software

In breeding (input materials), production, logistics and coherent

supply of technology

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Knowledge (Wageningen UR, Univ.Utrecht, Maastricht)

Share in EU Framework Programme

Seed production, genetics

Propagation materials for animals, vegetables, potatoes

Processing: widely known multinationals (Unilever, Heineken)

Machinery and production equipment:

◦ poultry processing, egg handling, potato handling and processing, bakery, cheese processing

5-2-2013

4

Purchasing power growing fastest in Russia, China and Indonesia

- 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

GD

P/

Cap

ita (

US

D 1

,00

0)

2010

2020

Rabobank International

72 57 80

! !

13 Source: EIU, UN, Rabobank, 2010

!

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

The Dutch agro-chain, operating in an urban setting, leading in the W-European market…

Is well positioned to connect with the growth centres of demand in - emerging and frontier markets

- the urban agglomerates in these markets

Can help to connect demand with hinterland supply

Can where it suits usually satisfy the option of direct imports of ready made….; as backup necessity or high grade item in the chain

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Metropolitan Food Security

₋ 2010-2011

₋ Ontwdesign & feasibility ₋ Development eco-valley

₋ Demo Site

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

POTENTIAL YIELD

ATTAINABLE YIELD

ACTUAL YIELD

AVAILABLE FOOD

- Metropole

- Biobased Economy

- Post harvest losses

- Technologies

- Management

- Logistics

Hardware + Orgware + Software

- Pest and diseases

- Entrepreneurial spirit

- Horizontal & vertical chain integration

- Education

- Training

- Coaching

Source: Wageningen UR (2011)

5-2-2013

5

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Metropolitan Food Security

The agri-food sector could do better as to its organisation

chain- and/or cross sectoral approaches require intensified cooperation Not every subsector is well represented outside Western Europe

Too many sales-concepts push only the “own” product, not the product as

part of a total proposal

MFS wishes to help companies to get to integrated solutions

MFS wishes to put enterprise in a leading role

integrated solutions largely rely on the input of Medium Size Enterprise (SMI/MKB)

however:

Innovating Markets

Local companies, Universities and R&D insitiutions, Governments, EU, Worldbank

Emerging Markets

(local) private parties, governments, embassies, educational & knowledge, NAFTC

Frontier Markets

(local) private parties, governments, NGOs, knowledge and education partners

Business - Knowledge – Government - Education

Platform MFS

Innovating markets emerging markets developing markets

= cluster

= country

Steering Committee

Steering Committee

Steering Committee

Toolbox Toolbox Toolbox

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

mission to “innovative”market (Israel with dept.MP Verhagen) june ’12

Topsector A&F supports MFS to implement its concept on the markets of Russia and India/China, july ‘12

After-election seminar in Nieuwspoort, oct.’12

Trade-Mission to South-Africa; Joburg Seminar & Food conference nov’12

Trade-mission to India (3 state capitals); 2 mfs-seminars, jan.’13

Fruit/vegetable mission with GHI to China, jan ’13

Start of Russia-approach: jan’13, - follow up action feb.’13?

p.m. FDR Livestock mission to Siberia, march’13

Golden Autumn nov’13

5-2-2013

6

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Operates support points with programmes

NAFTC Beijing (Dutch Meat & Feed Centre, programs:

Orange Potato, Orange Pig)

NAFTC New Delhi (Dutch-Indian Action Plan, Centres-of

Excellence, 3 NBSO’s in support)

NAFTC Joburg/ Capetown in preparation with SANEC/ NABC

NAFTC’s West- and East Africa in pipeline

NAFTC: Netherlands Agri Food & Technology Center

NABC: Netherlands Africa Business Council

Sanec: South Africa-Netherlands Chamber of Commerce.

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Ondersteund door…..:

J a l and e r - I n d i a , 6 M a r c h , 2 0 1 2

Metropolitan Food Security

w w w . m e t r o p o l i t a n f o o d s e c u r i t y . n l