22-05-2018
1
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Climate+Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Implicat ions for Irrigat ion
David Molden The Hindu Kush Himalaya
Global asset for food, energy, water, carbon, and cultural and
biological diversity
• 8 countries
• 240 million
people in the
HKH
• 1.9 billion
people
downstream
Source of
10 major Asian
river systems
22-05-2018
2
Diversity in the HKH:Over 1,000 liv ing languages
Yet Poverty Remains High
Mountains support
high levels of
agricultural diversity
HKH basins support some of the world’s most populated areas
Supports immense areas
of irrigation
Equity and Sustainability Challenges
• Gender inequality, inclusive development
• 300M people malnourished
• 20% no electricity
• 70-80% food production depends on groundwater irrigation
• 5% land feeding 20% population
Water-Food-Energy-Climate Change
22-05-2018
3
Current Climate
(Heat Stress)
Source:
ALTERRA, Wageningen University
Source: ALTERRA, Wageningen Environmental Research
Now: Number of days with minimum temperature less than 30o C.
1 to 10
RCP 4.5
2050 Scenario
2050: Number of days with minimum temperature less than 30o C.
45 to 60
Climate Change: Temperature Amplification in Mountains of the HKH
1.8 ± 0.4˚C in a 1.5 degree world
2.5 ± 1.5˚C in a 2 degree world (RCP4.5)
Too hot for mountains
West RongbukGlacier
22-05-2018
4
What is happening tothe HKH cryosphere?
Estimating cryosphere change and impact on water flows
Information on: temperature, snow, glaciers, permafrost, black carbon, rain
Significant data gaps exist, especially at high elevation
Studies based on field data, remote sensing and modeling
• Understanding role and importance of cryosphere
• Cryosphere monitoring programmes in Nepal and Bhutan
• Capacity development in the region
• 712 people since 2013 (25% women)
• Regional Cryosphere Knowledge hub
• Filling data gaps: Data from Nepal (since 2011) and Bhutan submitted to World Glacier Monitoring Serv ice
Snow Accumulation and Melt Processesin Himalayan Catchment (Snow-AMP) Meteorology and Hydrology
Automatic weather station
Hydrological station
Glaciers
Langtang Valley - for monitoring and training -
22-05-2018
5
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) resultsSource: Immerzeel, 2014
Courtesy Walter Immerzeel
Most glaciers are losing ice volume
Karakoram Anomaly
Source: Kaab et al, 2015
• Area change -20 to -55%
• Indus: -20 to -30%
Shrinking Glaciers: Glacial Area Change by 2050
Water and Climate Atlas
Westerlies & Monsoon
Westerlies
Monsoon
22-05-2018
6
Air Pollution and Black Carbon Impacts
• Raises temperatures
• Accelerates glacier and snow melt
• Negatively impacts health
• Reduces crop yield
NOV – APR SKYSource: Lutz, Immerzeel, Shrestha, Bierkens, Nature Climate Change, 2014
Contribution of glacier and snow melt runoff1998–2007
Indus Ganges Brahmaputra
Sources of water flow
2050 –
RC
P 8
.5
DR
Y
2050 –
RC
P 4
.5
WE
T
Refe
rence
2050 –
RC
P 8
.5
DR
Y
2050 –
RC
P 4
.5
WE
T
Refe
rence
Nang, Ladakh, India
Communities dependent on glacier and snow melt are feeling the impacts
22-05-2018
7
Irrigation systems in Nepal
High Mountain Irrigation System (FMISs)
Mid hills irrigation system (FMISs)
Plain irrigation system (AMIS)
Upstream
Midstream
Downstream
Snow and Glacier melt
Rainfed and spring
River and groundwater
Courtesy: Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
Uttarakhand:21,000 or 32,000 hill irrigation systems are springfed
Climate change impacts on water resources
• Loss of storage in the form of ice
• Greater impact for those liv ing closer to glaciers
• Predicted annual flow volume –no significant change
• Changing precipitation and flow patterns – more floods and droughts; high uncertainty
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
Changes in extremes: Floods
Relative change in 50 year return period of floods
Extremes will increase strongly during 21st century,
approximate doubling in
magnitude at end of century
Source:
Wingaard et al. 2017, PlosOne (Under review)
One-third of disasters are floods, many crossing national
borders
22-05-2018
8
What can we do about it?
Irrigation is critical for many mountain communities
Impacts on Local Communities:Loss of water source
Passu, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan
Artificial Glaciers
Choyang NorphelPhoto c/o Choyang Norphel
22-05-2018
9
Solar Powered Pumping in Mountains
Solar Powered Irrigation Pumps
New financing models for women?
Identification of Recharge Area
Recharge Interventions for Springs
Recharge Interventions for Springs
22-05-2018
10
HKH-HYCOS: Setting up real-time monitoring stations in transboundary basins and establishment of flood information systems
Making information travel faster than flood waters
Partners: hydromet agencies Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal & Pakistan
Promotion of regional cooperation and timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform
HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building under the Global framework of WMO’s WHYCOS
CBFEWS in G-B Pakistan
Community based early warning system
22-05-2018
11
Resilient Mountain Villages
• Integrated, affordable, replicable approach to adaptation
8 pilot
villages
in Nepal
+1,000 households
83% women
farmers
Upscaled to 14 districts by Nepal government
Resilient outcomes through risk mitigation and livelihood
diversification
• Recovery from shocks
• Improved adaptive capacity
• Transformative change
Two Punjabs, One Atmosphere
Courtesy of Arnico Panday, ICIMOD
Communicating science to policy and decision makers
22-05-2018
12
Climate Change Impacts
• Higher temperatures
• Many places higher rainfall, more intense rainfall events, changing monsoon patterns
• Higher incidence of floods and droughts
• Cryospheric impact – location specific
• More uncertainty and higher variability of flows
• Changing crop response, higher ET
• Climate change impacts are mixed with a range of other socio-economic drivers
Actions
• Manage – irrigation water, drainage, rainfall• Manage socio-economic + climate changes
• Work across sectors and disciplines to build resilience
• Work across boundaries to manage shared resources
• Storage – including natural storage (soils, GW, wetlands)
• Take global action
Thank You
Photo: Karen Conniff