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UK Consumer Credit

Report

SampleReport

© Experian Economics

UK Sample Report

CONTENTS

1. Summary………………………………………………….3

2. Credit conditions………………………………………....4

3. Unsecured credit………………………………………....7

4. Secured lending………………………………………...10

5. Affordability: household incomes……………………12

6. Affordability: cost of living………………………….....15

7. UK prospects and key risks……………………..…….19

8. Consumers……………………………………………....20

9. Housing market………………………………………....22

10. Recent trends…………………………………………...24

11. Two-year outlook………………………………….........26

12. Labour market………………………………..……........28

UK Sample Report


UK 14 15 16 17 18-22

Interest Rate (%) 3.22 3.08 2.84 2.73 3.70

Gross Lending level (£billions) 203.7 220.6 246.8 257.5 238.0

Net Lending level (£billions) 23.5 34.9 40.4 43.2 116.4

Debt Stock (£billions) 1249 1274 1312 1350 1433

Write-offs (£billions) 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3

Write-off rate (%) 0.010 0.008 0.003 0.002 0.005

Interest Rate (%) 12.4 11.8 12.3 11.6 12.0

Gross Lending level (£billions) 224.2 244.7 260.1 273.8 302.1

Net Lending level (£billions) 10.4 14.6 18.8 18.2 15.9

Debt Stock (£billions) 163.8 175.5 187.9 202.3 242.1

Write-offs (£billions) 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 5.1

Write-off rate (%) 0.395 0.390 0.328 0.277 0.319

© Experian Plc 2017

Secured Credit

Unsecured Credit

Summary

A disorderly transition to a

‘Hard’ Brexit’ is the key risk to

our central case scenario, as

it could negatively impact on

business confidence,

investment and hiring. The

possibility of lingering above

target inflation also poses a

downside risk to the

consumer spending outlook.

Credit forecast summary*

Bank of England raises rates to 0.75%

In line with our forecasts, the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have voted unanimously to

increase Bank Rate by 25bps, to 0.75%, only the second rise since the financial crisis.

The MPC’s decision to hike rates was driven by a perceived requirement to combat domestic cost

pressures, namely from wagegrowth, that they say are building in line with a tightening labour market.

However, in the longer term movements in pay tend to closely mirror the trend in productivity (output per

worker) through its impact on the amount of revenue that companies generate, and ultimately what they

can afford to pay their employees.

Productivity has remained stubbornly low since the financial crisis, but the MPC expects growth to pick

up slowly in the coming quarters, reaching an annual rate of around1¼% by xxxx.

Given their assumptions on productivity and wage growth, as well as an expectation that import cost

pressures will continue to ease in line with the diminishing impact of sterling's deprecation on import

prices, the MPC has repeatedly stressed that any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a

gradual pace and to a limited extent.

Our central macroeconomic forecast for the UK continues to be predicated on a steady rise in base rate

to 1.5% by the end of xxxx. The potential outcome of Brexit negotiations presents an ongoing risk to the

outlook both to the upside and downside, and the MPC have not ruled out a rate cut if economic

conditions should deteriorate.

*Credit forecasts are consistent with our July 2018 macroeconomic forecast

UK Sample Report


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

An

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

%

Source: National Statistics, Experian

SecuredUnsecured

Lending remains firm

The latest Bank of England data shows that net lending secured

on dwellings came in at £3.9 billion in June, up fractionally from

May and exceeding the six month average of £3.5 billion.

Annual growth for mortgage lending was unchangedat 3.2%.

Consumer credit net lending came in at £1.6 billion in June,

unchanged from May, but up compared to the six month

average of £1.4 billion. Within consumer credit, net credit card

lending and other loans and advances were also both

unchanged at £0.5 billion and £1 billion respectively, broadly in

line with their six month averages. Furthermore, the annual rate

of growth in total net lending held steady at 8.8%. The gains

remain rapid relative to the post recession average, though have

eased by roughly 0.5 percentage points compared to the start of

the year, and are down from a peak of 10.9% in November

xxxx.

Lenders responding to the Bank of England Credit Conditions

Survey (CCS) reported that supply of credit in the secured and

unsecured markets was flat in q2. They expected supply to be

broadly unchanged in the secured credit market in q3, but

decrease slightly for unsecured credit, with credit scoring criteria

likely to become significantly tougher. The CSS also shows that

respondents anticipate a pick-up in demand for unsecured credit

and secured lending for mortgaging, but no change in lending

for house purchase. This follows a flat q2 in the unsecured

market, but an increase in the secured lending market.

Near-term outlook: Demand for unsecured credit remains

strong, while in the secured credit market the near-term outlook

looks flat. On balance, a tightening in regulation in the consumer

credit market is anticipated to underline a modest slowdown in

overall net lending to below 3% (year-on-year) by xxxxq4, from

near 4% in xxxxq2. While mortgage rates remain supportive, a

modest tightening in q2 and going into q3 will also take the edge

off what will still be a very strong growth rate by historic

standards.

Credit conditionsAnnual growth of net lending to households

Market average retail interest rates

4**Our forecasts were locked on 10 February

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Inte

rest

Rat

e %


SecuredUnsecured

UK Sample Report


Credit conditions

Gross lending to households (quarterly) Net lending to households (quarterly)

Total outstanding loans to households Write off rates on loans to households

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

£ B

illio

n, c

urr

ent

pri

ces


SecuredUnsecured

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

£ B

illio

n ,

curr

ent

pri

ces


SecuredUnsecured

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

% o

f Ho

use

ho

ld D

isp

osa

ble

Inco

me

£ B

illio

n ,

curr

ent

pri

ces


Outstanding Loans

%of income (right axis)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Wri

te o

ffs,

% o

f o

uts

tan

din

g


UnsecuredSecured (right axis)

UK Sample Report


Credit conditions

Secured loans: Approvals & gross lending Secured loans: Interest rates

Growth forecasts: Secured net lending Interest payments as % of household income

6

0

2

4

6

8

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

Interest - Secured Interest - Unsecured

Sources: Bank of England, National Statistics, Experian

% o

f U

K H

ou

seh

old

Dis

posable

Incom

e

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

An

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

%

Secured


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Annual Growth %

£ mill ion

Source: Bank of England

Lending Approvals

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Inte

rest

rat

e %


BofE Rate Variable 2yr Fixed

3yr Fixed SVR

UK Sample Report


Unsecured lendingGrowth expected to slowConsumer credit net lending came in at £1.6 billion in June,

unchanged from May, but up compared to the six month average of

£1.4 billion. Within consumer credit, net credit card lending and other

loans and advances were also both unchanged at £0.5 billion and £1

billion respectively, broadly in line with their six month averages.

Furthermore, the annual rate of growth in total net lending held

steady at 8.8%. The gains remain rapid relative to the post recession

average, though have eased by roughly 0.5 percentage points

compared to the start of the year, and are down from a peak of

10.9% in November xxxx.

Lenders responding to the CCS reported that the availability of

unsecured credit to households was unchanged in q2 and was

expected to decrease slightly in q3. Credit scoring criteria for the

granting of other unsecured loans were reported to have become

significantly more tough and the proportion of applications that were

approved fell slightly. Conversely, the proportion of approvals of

credit card loan applications increased significantly.

Respondents to the CCS also reported that demand for unsecured

lending was unchanged in q2, but they expected an increase in q3.

Lender expectations were underlined by an anticipated rise in credit

card lending, offsetby a slight decrease for other unsecured lending.

In terms of loan pricing, CCS respondents reported a tightening in

spreads in q2, driven by a significant narrowing in spreads on other

unsecured lending products. Overall unsecured lending spreads

were expected to widen slightly in q3. Bank of England data also

shows that while quoted rates on new £5000 and £10,000 were

slightly lower in June than they were in December last year, they are

higher than they were a year ago, and have crept up in recent

months.

On balance, we expect a tightening in credit scoring criteria and

marginally less supportive interest rates to underline an easing in

consumer credit growth (year-on-year) from 8.2% in xxxxq2 to a little

over 7% by xxxxq4. Growth at these rates is well above the historic

average, and reflects continuing strong demand.

Unsecured net lending to households

Retail interest rates: Unsecured loans

7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

An

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

%


Total

Credit Cards

Other

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Inte

rest

rat

e %


Total

Credit Cards

Other

UK Sample Report


Unsecured lending

Unsecured gross lending (quarterly) Unsecured net lending (quarterly)

Outstanding unsecured loans to households Write off rates on unsecured loans

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

£b

illio

n, c

urr

ent

pri

ces


Total

Credit Cards

Other

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

£ b

illio

n, c

urr

ent

pri

ces


Total

Credit Cards

Other

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

Other

Credit Cards

Sources: National Statistics, Bank of England, Experian

£ b

illio

n,

curr

ent

prices

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Wri

te-o

ffs,

% o

f Ou

tsta

nd

ing


Credit Cards

Other

UK Sample Report


2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2

Availability of Unsecured Credit to Households -12.40 -38.70 -4.30 -24.30 3.70 -7.70

Demand for Unsecured Lending -8.1 -15.2 4.4 2.5 5.7 12.3

Credit Cards -2.70 -21.30 2.30 3.00 10.40 16.00

Other Unsecured -32.5 13.1 15.4 0.3 -16.2 -5.8

Credit Scoring Criteria -12.40 -24.60 -4.50 -24.00 -8.90 -5.70

Credit Cards -9.2 -24.9 -1.0 -25.8 -5.7 0.3

Other Unsecured -27.00 -23.30 -22.40 -15.80 -23.60 -35.50

Proportion of Applications Approved -17.6 -23.9 21.7 -32.9 8.8 14.7

Credit Cards -16.70 -26.20 27.40 -33.40 16.40 21.50

Other Unsecured -21.7 -13.2 -6.6 -31.1 -27.1 -19.7

Average credit quality of new lending 0.60 0.20 14.90 6.40 8.70 12.70

Credit Cards -4.3 2.1 13.1 5.7 8.9 12.6

Other Unsecured 22.90 -8.60 24.00 9.30 7.80 13.50

Lending Spreads 15.8 20.6 11.9 -4.1 -2.3 -6.2

Credit Cards 16.80 20.90 8.90 -9.90 -6.50 -6.30

Other Unsecured 12.3 16.6 25.6 20.3 17.9 -4.9

Credit Card Limits 4.40 -8.20 15.90 -5.70 13.90 -1.20

Minimum payments of credit card balances 4.1 3.2 0.9 4.1 0.0 0.9

Default Rates 15.30 13.70 19.50 12.30 7.60 13.60

Credit Cards 16.7 12.3 21.1 17.6 5.7 15.4

Other Unsecured 8.90 19.80 11.90 -11.60 16.40 4.80

Losses Given Default 10.7 -15.8 -9.1 10.1 10.1 -1.2

Credit Cards 11.30 -17.90 -9.60 11.00 11.00 0.00

Other Unsecured 7.8 -6.2 -6.5 5.9 6.2 -7.1


Previous 3 Months Next Three Months

Unsecured lendingSummary of credit conditions survey responses: Unsecured lending to households

9

Availability of unsecured credit to households Demand for unsecured loans by households

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Cards Other

Net

%bala

nce w

eig

hte

d b

y m

ark

et

share


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Past 3 mthsNext 3 mthsN

et

%bala

nce w

eig

hte

d b

y m

ark

et

share


UK Sample Report


Secured lending

Borrowing likely to slow The latest Bank of England data shows that net lending secured on

dwellings came in at £3.9 billion in June, up fractionally from May

and exceeding the six month average of £3.5 billion. Annual growth

for mortgage lending was unchanged at 3.2%.

Lenders responding to the CCS reported that the availability of

secured credit to households was unchanged again in the three

months to mid-June xxxx and they expected no change over the

next three months to mid-September xxxx. At the same time they

reported that household demand for secured lending for

remortgaging increased in q2, and expected demand to increase

slightly in Q3. Demand for secured lending for house purchase was

reported to have been unchanged in Q2, and was expected to be

unchanged in Q3.

Interest rates on secured lending remain extremely supportive.

According to the CCS overall spreads on secured lending to

households — relative to Bank Rate or the appropriate swap rate

— narrowed significantly in xxxxq2, for the sixth consecutive

quarter. Within this, spreads on both buy-to-let and prime lending

were reported to have tightened. A slight widening of spreads is.

expected in xxxxq3, driven by prime lending,.

The most recent Bank of England data on quoted rates which

covers June, shows some divergence in fixed rate mortgages

across the various product types. However, in general rates have

crept up slightly in the first two quarters of this year, though remain

lower than they were a year ago

The August hike in Bank Rate from 0.5% to 0.75% has already

prompted a number of major lenders to increase rates on their

standard variable mortgages and tracker mortgages. Other lenders

are expected to follow suit in the coming months, and rates on fixed

deals are also likely to creep up.

With mortgage rates becoming marginally less supportive and

household budgets remaining under pressure, given above target

inflation and historically weak, albeit accelerating wage growth, the

increases in net secured lending are anticipated to ease to a little

under 2% (year-on-year) by xxxxq4, from over 3% in xxxxq2.

Secured lending to households (quarterly)

Retail interest rates: Mortgages

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

£ b

illi

on

, cu

rre

nt p

rice

s


Net

Gross

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Inte

rest

rat

e %

Mortgage

Sorce: National Statistics, Experian

UK Sample Report


Secured lending

Availability of secured credit to households Demand for secured loans by households

Summary of credit conditions survey responses: Secured lending to households

11

2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2

Availability of Secured Credit to Households 1.50 3.80 4.00 4.20 3.80 -4.10

High LTV (> 75%) 3.9 5.5 10.7 1.8 -7.6 1.9

Low LTV (<= 75%) 1.20 17.00 -6.70 6.50 -13.70 2.30

Demand for House Purchase 8.20 -29.30 4.90 -0.20 23.10 0.70

Prime 5.5 -27.0 4.1 -9.1 20.4 -1.9

Buy-to-Let 2.30 -24.50 6.90 -7.30 12.40 -2.90

Demand for Re-mortgaging 49.1 -22.5 16.7 1.7 29.6 8.1

Willingness to lend with < 10% equity 0.4 0.1 -5.1 4.9 7.6 3.8

Credit Scoring Criteria -1.00 -3.50 -0.20 -0.90 -5.60 -9.80

Proportion of Applications Approved 4.4 -18.5 4.7 -4.6 0.2 -3.2

Average credit quality of new lending -4.50 -0.90 -0.30 0.00 -0.90 1.60

Maximum Loan to Value 0.0 0.0 3.0 -3.6 0.0 -3.3

Maximum Loan to Income -8.90 -7.60 2.30 -7.60 5.50 1.60

Lending Spreads 39.60 60.00 29.70 3.10 20.80 -6.40

Prime 41.6 60.0 29.2 1.3 20.8 -6.4

Buy-to-Let 38.90 43.60 36.20 3.20 23.80 6.40

Lending Fees -5.3 10.5 -9.0 0.0 4.0 0.0


Previous 3 Months Next Three Months

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2013 2014 201520152016 2017 2018

Past 3 mths

Next 3 mths

Net

%bala

nce w

eig

hte

d b

y m

ark

et

share


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2012 2013 2014 201520152016 2017 2018

House Purchase: Past 3 mthsRemortgage: Past 3 mths

Net

%bala

nce w

eig

hte

d b

y m

ark

et

share


UK Sample Report


The latest Office for National statistics (ONS) data shows

that real household disposable income grew by 0.3% q-on-q

in xxxxq1, following a contraction of 0.5% year-on-year in

xxxx as a whole – the weakest annual rate since xxxx. This

underlined an increase of 0.2% in household spending, in

line with the gains in the three quarters prior, but well down

on the three-year and five-year averages.

Through q2 and going into q3 incomes remained under

severe pressure. In July inflation accelerated to 2.5%, from

2.4% a month earlier, the first rise since November xxxx. At

the same time total pay growth in the year to April – June

eased to 2.4%.

In the coming months diminishing import cost pressures

linked to sterling’s depreciation in xxxx are expected to exert

downward pressure on inflation, however much of this will be

offset by higher fuel costs, and this should keep inflation

above the Bank of England’s 2% target until the end of the

year.

In terms of pay, tight labour market conditions and low

unemployment should see growth slowly pick up, as it

becomes more difficult for firms to recruit and retain staff. In

the longer term productivity is also anticipated to make a

modest recovery, providing further support to pay growth

through its impact on the amount of revenue that companies

generate, and ultimately what they can afford to pay their

employees.

On balance, given a modest up-tick in pay and gently easing

inflation, real disposable incomes are anticipated to grow by

around 1.5% this year, although this has to be viewed in light

of an increase of just 0.2% last year. Beyond this the gains

are forecast to average 0.7% between xxxx and xxxx, before

recovering to nearer 2% a year thereafter.

Affordability: Household incomes

Real incomes remain under pressure

Employment incomes to improve through 2018

12

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

An

nu

al G

row

th R

ate

%


RPDI

RPDI per person

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

An

nu

al G

row

th R

ate

%


Employment Income

Employment Income per person

UK Sample Report


Affordability: Household incomes

Public sector wage freeze bites Real earnings should pick-up gradually

Household Income flat for some time Incomes remain constrained

13

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Bal

ance

, Co

nfi

den

ce -

Turn

ove

r

Source: British Chamber of Commerce

Whole EconomyPrivate SectorPublic Sector

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Rea

l Wee

kly

Ho

use

ho

ld In

com

e P

er P

erso

n, £


Disposable

Disposable excluding property

Disposable excluding propertypayments

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

An

nu

al G

row

th o

f Rea

l In

com

e p

er P

erso

n, %


Employment Income

Social Benefits

Gross income

Net Income

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r


Average Earnings

CPI Inflation

Real Average Earnings

UK Sample Report


Affordability: Household incomesHousehold Incomes are relatively resilient in London and the south of England

Outstanding debt as % of household income Interest payments as % of household income

14

0

2

4

6

8

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

Interest - Secured Interest - Unsecured

Sources: Bank of England, National Statistics, Experian

% o

f U

K H

ou

seh

old

Dis

posable

Incom

e

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

Secured Unsecured

Sources: National Statistics, Bank of England, Experian

% o

f U

K H

ousehold

Dis

posable

Incom

e

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

North

East

North

West

Yorks &

Humber

East

Midlands

West

Midlands

East London South

East

South

West

Wales Scotland Northern

Ireland

UK

2005-08 2009-13 2014-16

2017 2018-22

% C

hange,

year-

on-y

ear


Real Disposable Household Income

UK Sample Report


Inflation still above target

Consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 2.5% in July, up from 2.4%

in June. This is the first rise in the rate since November xxxx.

Transport continued to make the largest upward contribution to

the 12-month rate, with a 5.7% increase in prices, the largest rise

in over a year. The uptick was underlined by growth of 12.4% in

the price of fuels and lubricants. Global oil prices have eased back

somewhat in recent months after peaking in May, but remain

much higher than they were a year ago. Brent Crude is currently

trading at over 70 dollars a barrel, compared to less than 55

dollars a barrel last summer. In addition, as oil is priced in

dollars, the recent weakening in the sterling/dollar

exchange rate has pushed up fuel import costs.

Amongst the other components of CPI import cost pressures

have generally diminished over the past year, as the much larger

depreciation of sterling in xxxx drops out of the annual

comparison. This can be seen in the latest producer price data

which shows an easing in the headline rate of inflation for goods

leaving the factory gate (output prices) to 3.1% in the year to July,

down from 3.3% in June. Conversely, prices for materials and

fuels (input prices) rose to 10.9%, up from 10.3%. However, more

than seven percentage points of this increase is attributable to

price movements for crude oil.

Clothing & footwear, a heavily imported good made the largest

downward contribution to the 12-month rate in July, with prices

falling by 0.4% year-on-year. This is the largest drop since

October xxxx, and compares to annual rises of well above 3% in

the Spring. Furthermore, core inflation which strips out the more

volatile components of the headline index, including fuel, was

unchanged at 1.9%, compared to 2.7% at the beginning of the

year.

Diminishing import cost pressures are expected to

continue to exert downward pressure on inflation, however

much of this will be offset by higher fuel costs. This should

keep inflation above the Bank of England’s 2% target until

the end of the year.

Affordability: Cost of living

CPI inflation well above BoE target

Inflation has probably peaked

15

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Source: National Statistics

CPI RPI

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

An

nu

al %

ch

ange

CPI Inflation


UK Sample Report


Affordability: Cost of living

CPI above BoE target Core inflation rose last year

Increases in food & energy (transport) prices drive general inflation higher

16

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r


CPI CPIY CPIH

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r


CPI CPIY CPIH Core CPI

YTD

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

All Ite

ms

Foo

d

Alc

oh

ol

Clo

thin

g

Hou

sing

Furn

iture

etc

.

Hea

lth

Tra

nsport

Com

mun

icatio

n

Recre

atio

n

Edu

cation

Hospita

lity

Mis

c.

All g

oods

All s

erv

ices

2008-11 2012-2016 2017 2018 (YTD)

% a

nnual

incre

ase


UK Sample Report


Bank rate at 0.75%

Central scenario:

In line with our forecasts, the nine-strong Monetary Policy

Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to increase Bank Rate by

25bps, to 0.75% at their August rate setting meeting, only the

second rise since the financial crisis.

The MPC’s decision to hike rates was driven by a perceived

requirement to combat domestic cost pressures, namely

from wage growth, that they say are building in line with a

tightening labour market. In the longer term they also

highlighted that inflationary pressures were expected to

build in line with a gently up-tick in productivity.

Given the mild upward anticipated trajectories for wage

growth and productivity the MPC stated that any future

increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace

and to a limited extent.

Our central macroeconomic forecast for the UK continues to be

predicated on a steady rise in base rate to 1.5% by the end of xxxx.

Risks to the central scenario:

1. The renewed depreciation of sterling intensifies keeping

inflation above target for longer, as import cost pressures

linger. As oil is traded globally in dollar terms, sterling's

weakness against the dollar is an acute risk, particularly

while oil prices remain relatively high.

2. Export led output growth creates inflationary pressures

as the global economic outlook strengthens.

3. A marked pick-up in domestic price growth emerges as

the remaining slack in the economy is absorbed or

productivity improves.

4. A disorderly transition to a ‘Hard’ Brexit’ leads to a

protracted period of weak business confidence, lower

investment and a reduction in hiring, dampening inflation.

Affordability: Interest rate prospects

Bank rate to rise very slowly

Mortgage and credit card interest rates

17

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Inte

rest

Rat

e, %

BoE Base Rate


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Inte

rest

Rat

e %


Mortgage

Credit card

UK Sample Report


Affordability: Interest rate prospectsLabour costs set for modest increases Sterling remains relatively weak for now

Inflationary pressures continue to bite Interest rates to rise very gradually

18

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

An

nu

al %

ch

ange

Unit Labour Costs


75

85

95

105

115

125

135

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Ind

ex, 2

00

5 =

10

0

Sterling effective exchange rate


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

GDP Deflator


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Inte

rest

Rat

e %


BoE Base Rate

3 Month LIBOR


UK August 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US$ per £ (y/e) 1.52 1.24 1.33 1.37 1.39

£ per € (y/e) 0.72 0.87 0.91 0.87 0.86

REER (Jan 2005=100) 117.3 97.7 99.3 102.3 104.1

UK Prospects & Key Risks

Recent

Trends

UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.4% (q-on-q) in

xxxxq2, up from 0.2% in the previous quarter.

Business

Planning

Assumptions

The MPC voted unanimously at their August

meeting to increase Bank Rate by 25bps, to

0.75%, only the second rise since the financial

crisis. Future increases are likely to be at a

gradual pace and to a limited extent.

2-Year

Outlook

Real GDP growth is forecast to grow by 1.4% this

year, down from 1.8% in xxxx.

Key risks: The momentum gathering in the global

economy falters. The emerging trade war between

China and the USA is of particular concern. Wage

growth fails to accelerate holding back consumer

spending further. Brexit related uncertainty

negatively impacts on business investment and

consumer confidence.

Longer-Term

Outlook

GDP growth of 1.6% a year in xxxx-xx, with annual

employment growth of 0.5%.

Key risks: Public finances suffer from low economic

growth and relaxation of austerity to support the

economy. High debt exposure of public and private

sectors becomesa serious burden.

Consumer Spending growth to be sustained but at a much

slower pace than in recent years.

Key risks: Lingering above target inflation and weak

earnings growth inhibit spending. Further Bank Rate

hikes hit highly-exposed borrowers.

Trade Trade should continue to benefit from sterling’s

weakness.

Key risk: As sterling eventually appreciates, export

price competitiveness diminishes and production

output growth falters.

Inflation Inflation accelerated to 2.5% in July.

Key risk: There is a renewed depreciation in

sterling, and associated import price pressures build.

The upward trend in global oil prices continues.

Labour

Market

Current strong employment growth should ease,

however competition for employees is expected see

pay growth accelerate mildly through xxxx.

Key risk: Productivity gains stall, constraining pay.

Government Fiscal policy expected to loosen in the coming year

as suggestedby the Chancellors Spring Statement.

Key risk: An easier fiscal stance could raise

concerns about the impact of high government debt

on growth prospects.

Interest ratesIn line with our forecasts, the nine-strong

MPC have voted unanimously to increase

Bank Rate by 25bps, to 0.75%, at the

August rate setting meeting, only the

second rise since the financial crisis. The

MPC’s decision to hike rates was driven by

a perceived requirement to combat

domestic cost pressures, namely from

wage growth, that they say are building in

line with a tightening labour market.

KEY RISK

The possibility of a fresh Sterling depreciation

as Brexit uncertainties persist is a key inflation

risk. This could lead to higher interest rates,

earlier than in the Base case.

Exchange ratesThe Bank of England’s effective exchange rate

index, a weighted average of the movements in

cross-exchange rates against a basket of other

currencies had been steadily rising in the year

to April on expectations of a May rise in Bank

Rate. However, with the interest rate rise failing

to materialise, the exchange rate subsequently

eased back. The August rate rise has of yet

done little to reverse the downward trend.

KEY RISK S

Consumers will benefit as inflation slowly

eases in line with softer import prices.

However, household budgets remain under

pressure and this is expected to continue to

hold back outturns in the services industries,

the main engine of the UK economy,

throughout xxxx. If consumer confidence

deteriorates further, any consumption driven

recovery could falter. Furthermore, the slight

narrowing in the trade deficit in xxxx, is not

enough to suggest that export led sectors such

as manufacturing can plug the gap left by

reduced services sector gains.

19

(% per annum) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Base rate (y/e) 0.50 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

10 yr yield (y/e) 1.88 1.26 1.30 1.85 2.65


UK August 2018

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Private Consumption


-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% b

alan

ce

Consumer Confidence

Source: GFK and Experian

Consumer spending growth slows Real household disposable income grew by 0.3% q-on-q

in xxxxq1, following a contraction of 0.5% year-on-year in

xxxx as a whole – the weakest annual rate since xxxx.

This underlined an increase of 0.2% in household

spending, in line with the gains in the three quarters prior,

but well down on the three-year and five-year averages.

Consumer spending, had been growing at roughly 0.8% a

quarter in the six quarters to xxxxq2. Sterling then

depreciated markedly following the Brexit vote in June

xxxx, which fed through to a sharp rise in inflation and an

erosion of real incomes. This has underlined a slowdown

in growth to nearer 0.3% a quarter in the xxxxq3 - xxxxq1

period.

More up-to-date retail sales data suggests that consumer

spending may have strengthened somewhat in q2 and

going in to q3. Retail sales volumes, which account for

roughly a third of consumer spending grew by 2.1% in the

three months to May – July, the largest increase since

January xxxx.

Growth was driven largely by a healthy rise in food store

sales, with supermarkets appearing to have benefited in

some part from exceptionally good weather conditions,

and high profile events such as the World Cup and Royal

Wedding. Sales of summer clothing also offered support,

briefly bucking an otherwise downward trend. Growth in

the other components of retail sales was less assured.

It is likely that some of the weather driven gains in retail

spending will unwind in the coming months as the

weakness in household budgets comes to the fore once

more. Furthermore, an uptick in inflation to 2.5% in July,

and an easing in total pay rises to 2.4% in the year to

April – June has intensified the pressure on real incomes.

Given this backdrop we expect consumer spending in

2018 to come in at 1.0% in xxxx as a whole, down from

1.7% in xxxx.

Consumers

Consumer confidence still below pre-

referendum levels….

…predicating a slowdown in consumer spending

20

UK Sample Report


ConsumersReal household incomes in the doledrums Savings rate remains low

Spending growth to remain muted for some time Retail sales come under pressure

21

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Retail Sales


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Consumer Spending


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Real Disposable Income


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Rat

e, %

Savings Rate


UK August 2018


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r


Price growth expected in the 2-3% range in xxxxThe latest RICS residential market survey shows that newly

agreed sales (which had been negative for sixteen

consecutive months) stayed flat in July, pointing to ongoing

weakness in sales activity. On the demand side, new buyer

enquires finally registered a muted positive reading

following 17 months of no growth, while on the supply side,

the number of new instructions faltered after a positive

outturn in May and June. The supply side uplift in these two

months had followed 26 months of decline and had been

expected to be short-lived with the rate of new appraisals of

property by valuers once again down on the year.

Bank of England data showed a small rise in the number of

loans available for house purchase in q2 (65,600 in June,

up from 63,100 in March). However, HMRC data also for

June states that the number of residential property

transactions fell by 5.7% y-on-y.

In a largely anticipated move, the MPC voted unanimously

to increase Bank Rate by 25bps, to 0.75% at their August

meeting. While a rise in interest rates typically exerts

pressure on household finances, we expect the short-term

impact of this move to be limited as rates are still historically

low and a significant proportion of households remain on

fixed-term mortgages. Having said that, household budgets

remain constrained and with Brexit uncertainty abounding,

demand is unlikely to pick-up in the short-term.

Nationwide data showed UK house price growth softened to

2% in the year to June, the smallest increase in five years.

While annual growth bounced back modestly to 2.5% in

July, it is unlikely to move beyond the 2-3% growth range

any time soon. Similarly according to Halifax annual growth

eased to 1.8% in xxxxq2, while ONS data, showed a 3.0%

rise in the year to May, the weakest annual rate in five

years. The RICS survey for July confirms that price

expectations in the short-term remain negative, improving

somewhat in the long-term. We expect house price growth

(on the ONS measure) to land at between 2-3% this year.

Housing market outlook: Summary

House prices on a modest growth path

Tight supply and faltering demand flatten outlook

KEY RISK

The two key risks facing the economy are a

breakdown in Brexit negotiations and the steady rise

of household debt reminiscent of the period prior to

the financialcrisis.

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

235

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Ind

ex, M

arch

20

02

= 1

00

HALIFAX

DCLG

NATIONWIDE

Source: National Statistics, Halifax, Nationwide

22

UK Sample Report


Housing market

House price forecasts – UK Regions

Nationwide mortgage payments House price to income ratio

23

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

£

Rat

io


House price toearnings ratio

House Prices

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

2010

Q2

2011

Q1

2011

Q4

2012

Q3

2013

Q2

2014

Q1

2014

Q4

2015

Q3

2016

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

Mo

rtga

ge P

aym

ents

as

% o

f In

com

e

Nationwide

Source: Nationwide

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Nort

h E

ast

Nort

h W

est

York

s &

Hum

be

r

East M

idla

nds

West

Mid

lan

ds

East of

Engla

nd

Gre

ate

r Lo

ndon

Sou

th E

ast

Sou

th W

est

Wale

s

Sco

tlan

d

Nort

her

Ire

land

2011-14 2015 2016 2017-22

% a

nnual

incre

ase



UK August 2018

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, q

uar

ter-

on

-qu

arte

r

GDP


35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Ind

ex, 5

0=n

o c

han

ge m

ark

PMI Services

Source: CIPS

GDP growth accelerates to 0.4% in q2The latest figures released by the ONS showed that UK GDP

increased by 0.4% (q-on-q) in xxxxq2. This represents a

1.3% rise compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Only a sector breakdown is available with this first GDP

estimate. This showed that overall growth was driven by a

0.5% rise in services output, largely stemming from

wholesale and retail trade, as well as a recovery in the

construction industry, which experienced a 0.9% increase.

The biggest drag on overall growth came from the production

sector, which contracted by 0.8%, underlined by falls of 0.9%

and 2.7% respectively in manufacturing and energy supply.

While its overall effect was limited, the adverse weather in q1

did have some impact on the economy, particularly in

construction, energy supply and some areas of retail.

Today’s figures show that some of these effects have

unwound in q2 – although it is difficult to quantify their overall

impact. Weather aside, the underlying trend in real GDP

remains one of slowing growth. Comparing the xxxxh1 with

the xxxxh2, the UK economy grew by just 0.6%.

Despite strengthening slightly this quarter, household

consumption remains subdued, suggesting little room for an

uplift in growth in the service industries that form the

backbone of overall expansion. Similarly, subdued business

investment figures indicate that Brexit-related economic and

political uncertainties continue to dampen prospects for the

sector. The modest q2 increase is likely to reflect a bounce

back from a particularly low q1 figure, rather than the

beginning of a sustained recovery. Furthermore, easing

manufacturing export growth diminishes hopes that the

sector could offset weaknesses elsewhere.

With GDP coming in broadly in line with our expectations in

the second quarter, we continue to forecast growth of 1.3%

in the year as a whole.

Services PMI recovered still strong

Growth improves in xxxxh2

Recent trends

24

UK Sample Report


Recent trends

Manufacturing output down as overseas demand stays weak Employment growth continues

Retail boom well and truly over House price growth cools

25

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, 3

mo

nth

s o

n 3

mo

nth

s, y

ear

ago


Manufacturing output

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, q

uar

ter-

on

-qu

arte

r

Headcount employment

Source National Statistics

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, 3

mo

nth

s o

n 3

mo

nth

s, y

ear

ago


Retail sales (%3m-on-3m, yr ago)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Source: Nationwide, Lloyds Banking

Halifax Nationwide


UK August 2018

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

GDP Consumer Spending


-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

GDP


Uncertain outlook

In January our macro forecasts incorporated the latest ONS

population projections and a modest downgrade to

productivity growth. The overall impact of these changes

compared to last years forecasts was a 0.3% per annum

downgrade to long-term GDP growth, to an average of 1.7%.

This reflects weaker population and productivity growth.

The EU referendum result has created major uncertainties

regarding the medium- and long-term outlook for the UK

economy. Much will depend on the outcome of trade

negotiations and terminating involvement with the EU and

only time will tell how these issues affect economic

performance.

Meanwhile the strong performance of the past four years

means that the UK economy has recovered ground lost

during the xxxx/xx recession more quickly than seemed likely

a few years ago. But the repercussions of the recession and

above all the implications of the Brexit vote are set to hamper

economic progress for a few years. The pace of expansion is

likely to be well below the long-term trend throughout xxxx-xx.

GDP growth is expected to average 1.6% per annum during

that period, against 2.6% from xxxx to xxxx.

The weaker growth outlook reflects in large measure the

expected slowdown in consumer demand, as real incomes

are eroded by higher inflation and earnings growth that

although accelerating, trails its historic average. Fiscal policy

will be easier than in the past six years and the monetary

stance will remain accommodative (even at 0.5% interest

rates are at well below the historic average). This will help

support activity but until the UK’s post Brexit trading

relationships are finalised it is not possible to determine

whether this will be sufficient to avert an outright recession at

some stage in the next few years.

Longer-term outlook

Consumption won’t regain previous buoyancy

26

Subdued GDP growth

UK Sample Report


Two-year outlookInvestment remains muted Fiscal austerity squeezes public spending

Exports to outgrow imports next year Job growth to ease

27

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Investment


0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Government Spending


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r


Exports Imports

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Employment



UK August 2018

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Un

emp

loym

ent

rate

, %

ILO Unemployment Rate

Source: National Statisitcs, Experian

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

% c

ha

nge

, yea

r-o

n-y

ear

Total Employment

Source:National Statisitcs, Experian

Employment gains remain strong

The latest figures from the ONS showed that the labour

market is generally in good health, however both total and

regular pay growth eased.

The key points comparing the three months to June xxxx

with the previous three months are:

• Employment grew by 42,000 to 32.4 million.

• The number of people working full-time increased by

105,000, while the number of part-time workers fell by

64,000

• Unemployment dropped by 65,000 to 1.4 million and the

unemployment rate eased to 4.0%

• The number of people in part-time work, because they

could not find a full-time job, declined by 30,000

• Comparing April-June with a year earlier, pay for

employees in Great Britain increased by 2.7% excluding

bonuses, and 2.4% including bonuses.

Aside from a 77,000 increase in inactivity in the three

months to April-June, the first in almost a year, the latest

data points towards a continuing erosion of slack (available

unemployed resource) in the economy. While the gain in

employment was the smallest since February, the drop in

unemployment was the largest since July last year. The

unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the winter

of xxxx and the vacancy rate continues to trend up,

increasing by 20,000 in the three months to May – July.

Tight labour market conditions and low unemployment are

typically associated with higher pay increases as it becomes

more difficult for firms to recruit and retain staff. However,

having eased to 2.4% the gains in total pay are now no

greater than they were in xxxx and xxxx. Worryingly the

slowdown was underlined by an easing in private sector pay

to 2.4%. Public sector pay which is less directly tied to labour

market conditions accelerated slightly to 2.2%.

Labour market

Employment growth to slow

Unemployment set to rise marginally

28

UK Sample Report


Labour market

Fragile productivity growth Employment rate at historic highs

Real earnings growth struggles Healthy employment gains

29

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r

Labour Productivity


74.0

74.5

75.0

75.5

76.0

76.5

77.0

77.5

78.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Emp

loym

ent

ate,

%

LFS Employment Rate


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

% c

han

ge, y

ear-

on

-yea

r


Average Earnings

CPI Inflation

Real Average Earnings

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

mill

ion

s


Employee Jobs

Workforce Jobs


UK August 2018

Contacts

Mohammed ChaudhriManagingEconomist

E: [email protected]

T: +44 (0) 207 746 8235

Mohammed joined Experian in April 2014

and leads in producing Experian’s monthly

UK macro forecast and the quarterly

Consumer Credit Report. He is also the

economist responsible for running

economic stress scenarios. Before joining

Experian Mohammed began his career as

a fast-stream economist at Her Majesty’s

Treasury.

James IsonSeniorEconomist

E: [email protected]

T: +44 (0) 115 828 6002

James joined Experian in August 2013. He

holds an Economics BSc (1st class

honours) from the University of Sheffield,

and an MPhil in Environmental Policy from

the University of Cambridge. His role

within the Economics team focuses largely

on the UK consumer, and he is

responsible for producing disaggregated

income and spending forecasts by

household.

Economics from Experian

Our economic forecasting expertise

Experian's team of 20 economists is a leading provider of global, national,regional and local economic forecasts and analysis to the commercial andpublic sectors. Our foresight helps organisations predict the future of theirmarkets, identify new business opportunities, quantify risk and make informeddecisions.

Experian’s economics team is part of a 140-strong analytics division, whichprovides an understanding of consumers, markets and economies in the UKand around the world, past, present and future. As part of the Experian group,the analytics division has access to a wealth of research data and innovativesoftware solutions. Its statisticians, econometricians, sociologists, geographers,market researchers and economists carry out extensive research into theunderlying drivers of social, economic and marketchange.

For more information, visit experian.co.uk/economics

About Experian

Experian is a global leader in providing information, analytical and marketingservices to organisations and consumers to help manage the risk and rewardof commercial and financial decisions. Combining its unique information toolsand deep understanding of individuals, markets and economies, Experianpartners with organisations around the world to establish and strengthencustomer relationships and provide their businesses with competitiveadvantage. For consumers, Experian delivers critical information that enablesthem to make financial and purchasing decisions with greater control andconfidence. Clients include organisations from financial services, retail andcatalogue, telecommunications, utilities, media, insurance, automotive, leisure,e-commerce,manufacturing, property and government sectors.

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For more information, visit experianplc.com

The word 'Experian' is a registered trademark in the EU and other countriesand is owned by Experian plc and/or its associated companies

Copyright © 2018 Experian

Apart fromfair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticismor review, and only as permitted under the Copyright Designs

and Patents Act 1998, thispublication may onlybereproduced,stored or transmitted, inany formor by anymeans, with theprior permission

in writing of the Publishers or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licenses issued by the Copyright

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This document is issued by Experian Ltd.While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, noresponsibility or liability is

accepted for errors of fact or for any opinionexpressedherein.Opinions, projectionsand estimates are subject to change without notice.This

document is for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any

transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or

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