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PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar ... · WWRP PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)...

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WWRP PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Thomas Jung Chair of the Polar Prediction Project Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany 1 Photo: S. Hendricks, AWI
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Page 1: PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar ... · WWRP PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Thomas Jung Chair of the Polar Prediction Project

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PPP

Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

Thomas Jung

Chair of the Polar Prediction ProjectAlfred Wegener Institute, Germany

1

Pho

to: S

. Hen

dric

ks, A

WI

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PPP

Progress (very selective)

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PPP Funding

EU Horizon2020 INTAROS (Stein Sandven) APPLICATE (Thomas Jung) Blue-Action (Steffen Olsen)

MEOPAR-YOPP (Canada) Dedicated YOPP call in preparation (2.1 Mio CAD) Strong involvement of ECCC

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PPP Meetings

5–9 September 2016, Reading, UK

YOPP Planning Workshops

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PPP YOPP Planning

YOPP Core Phase  YOPP Consolidationeparation Phase 

2017 2018 2019 2020

Core modelling & prediction

SOP2Jul-Sep

SOP1Feb-Mar

Special observingperiods

Field campaigns

Extensive buoy coverage

Satellitesnapshots

Extra modelling

MOSAiC

Core modelling & prediction

SOP3Feb-Mar

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PPP YOPP Endorsement

Online request for YOPP endorsement launched YOPP-SERA endorsement added YOPP institutional endorsement in preparation

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PPP YOPP Endorsement

43 endorsed projects (24 October 2016)

BlueAc on

INTAROS

APPLICATE

IGP

Arcc

Antarc

c

(AC)3

Legend

observa ons

modelling

project

network / ini a ve

funded

partly funded

not yet funded

ACAS

Atmosphere (incl. Land) Ocean (incl. Sea Ice)

ASPIRE

A+5

AWARE

FAMOS ERSIP

GEO‐CRI

GRAB

UUSSPL

IAMCO

TRIMMER LOPAP

MOSAiC

RADIANCE

PIRANhA SAMEECA

SCRAP

SOCRATES

AdelieHRM AWI‐SH

WGNE MIDO

TurbFlux CIRRUS‐HL

ACE‐SPACE

ICECAPS

IABP/IPAB

ACRE

MACSSIMIZE

H2O‐DC

PARCS‐Climate

RSR‐ Mesocyclones

MARCUS

APRES3

OASIS‐YOPP

PORA‐IP

SIMU‐CIS

Page 8: PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar ... · WWRP PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Thomas Jung Chair of the Polar Prediction Project

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PPP Draft YOPP Timeline

27 September 2016

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PPP

Contributions to the Action Areas of theWWRP Implementation Plan

Page 10: PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar ... · WWRP PPP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Thomas Jung Chair of the Polar Prediction Project

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PPP

Test and demonstrate improved polar predictions as part ofYOPP

Address limitations on polar prediction through the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) core phase (mid-2017 to mid-2019) and subsequent consolidation phase

HIW-AA1: Limitations

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PPP

Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from days to a season

Develop polar-specific forecast verification methods, in particular related to sea ice, as a prerequisite to quantify analysisand forecast error/uncertainty

HIW-AA2: Uncertainty

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PPP

Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systemsaccounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparsenessof observational data

Assess the impact of coupled versus uncoupled assimilationon coupled predictions of the various environmental systemcomponents (atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean, wave, snow)

Develop improved representation of key polar processes in coupled models used for prediction

Carry out model experiments including operational versions ofmedium range prediction models with coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean-hydrology

Carry out coupled versus uncoupled predictions of the variousenvironmental system components (atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean, wave, snow)

HIW AA3: Fully coupled

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PPP

Promote improving sea-ice forecasting capacity and explorecorresponding user needs

Demonstrate the benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of user types and services in polar regions

HIW AA4: Applications

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PPP

Collaborate on appropriate verification for high-impact polar weather — e.g., polar lows

Put a special emphasis on improving sea ice verification Improve general verification of polar weather and

environmental predictions as part of YOPP, to obtain betterquantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user-relevant parameters

Use the YOPP Core Phase to test verification methodologies, including impact-based and user-oriented verifications

HIW AA5: Verification

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PPP

Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions andlower latitudes and assess skill of models representing theselinkages, to help elicit the influence of polar climate change andvariability on lower latitude weather

HIW AA6: Attribution

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PPP

Carry out research and development on coupled dataassimilation, including sea ice as appropriate

Develop coupled modelling systems for PPP/YOPP includingaspects such as sea ice, snow, and river run- off as integral components

Carry out research on polar clouds; in particular, mixed-phase clouds in the stable boundary layer, utilising YOPP observationsand modelling

Water AA7: Integrated Water Cycle

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PPP

Validate polar precipitation forecasts and calibrate satellite-derived estimates using in-situ data (in particular those collectedduring YOPP and MOSAiC) to the extent possible

Water AA8: New Observations

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PPP

Evaluate the importance of aerosols for polar predictions and iceprocesses

Use relevant polar supersite, field programme, and intensive observing period observations (including MOSAiC) during and after YOPP for precipitation process studies

Water AA9: Precipitation processes

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PPP

Research and develop coupled atmosphere/sea-ice/ocean dataassimilation techniques

ET AA14: Advanced methods

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PPP

Develop a YOPP data portal that links to all relevant modellingand observational data sets

Publish a special issue on YOPP in the data publishing journalEarth System Science Data

ET AA15: Support facilities

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PPP

Promote YOPP as providing a framework for testing innovative observing systems (e.g., aircraft deployable ice observing systems)

ET AA17: New observations

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PPP

Facilitate the near real-time gathering of research data for YOPP into WMO’s WIS/GTS

Assess the impact of existing and supplementary observationsduring YOPP, mainly through OSEs and OSSEs

Assess the impact of existing and supplementary observations on S2S forecasts during YOPP and YMC

ET AA17: Future gos

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PPP

Run PPP/YOPP/PCPI Polar Prediction Schools for early careerscientists

Run Polar Prediction Webinars, in collaboration with APECS

Education & Training

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PPP

Plans for 2016/17

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PPP Planned Meetings

VERSION 2.0

Event Date Amount

YOPP Data Planning (Norway) 10‐11 Nov 2016 5kCHF

US CLIVAR Workshop (USA) 1‐3 Feb 2017 5kCHF

SERA and Outreach‐ SERA (USA)‐ Planning Meeting ASSW2017 (Side meeting)‐ YOPP Launch (Switzerland)

5‐9 April 201731 Mar‐2 Apr 201710‐20 May 2017

~25kCHF15kCHF? (und.review)5kCHF5kCHF

Polar Prediction Workshop (Germany) 27‐30 Mar 2017 5kCHF

8th PPP Steering Group Meeting (USA) 27 Feb‐1 Mar 2017

30kCHF

YOPP Souther Hemisphere meeting (USA) 26 July 2017 10kCHF

YOPP Planning Week (location tbd) September 2017 30kCHF

Support participation of PPP representatives in other meetings

5kCHF

Sum: ~115kCHF

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PPP

PPP and YOPP have gained a lot of momentum and visibility Substantial progress in 2015/16 Good progress with the Action Areas as outlined in the

WWRP Implementation Plan Further planning and running of YOPP will require

considerable financial resources

Summary

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PPP End

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PPP Meetings

14 March 2016, Fairbanks, USA

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PPP Meetings

18–22 April 2016, Christchurch, NZ

2nd PPP-SERA meeting

Meeting report published in BAMS

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PPP Meetings

23–25 May 2016, Beijing, China

PPP-SG7

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PPP Publications

Special Issue on Polar PredictionQuart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

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PPP Publications

Bull. Meteor. Meteor. Soc.

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PPP Meetings

1 August 2016, Beijing, China

Visit at the National Science Foundation of China

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PPP YOPP Planning: Task Teams

Modelling (Jung, Swinbank, Bauer, Svensson, Smith,Chevallier, Cardinali, ...)

SOPs (Ruti, Jung, Werner, Inoue, Makshtas)

Buoys and Argo (Goessling, Perovich, Renfrew, Makshtas)

Airborne platforms (Goessling, Tolstykh, Renfrew, Fairall,Wendisch, Harlow)

Satellites (Ruti, Jung, Bauer, Smith, Clemente, Drinkwater)

SERA (Werner, Hoke, PPP-SERA group, WWRP-SERA)

Verification (Goessling, Casati, ...)

Southern Hemisphere (Werner, Bromwich, Reid)

YOPP Data (Jung, Werner, Godoy)

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PPP Publications

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PPP PPP and action areas

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PPP International Coordination Office staff

Steffen Olsen

Barbara Casati Jackie Dawson

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PPP Publications

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PPP New steering group members

Daniela Liggett Steffen Olsen

Barbara Casati Jackie Dawson


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