1 © 2016 Ipsos.1
Pre-Election Survey
PREPARED BY: IPSOS
PREPARED FOR: GENERAL MEDIA RELEASE
RELEASE DATE: 1 AUGUST 2017
SPEC Barometer
© 2017 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
2 © 2016 Ipsos.
Contents
01 Main Finding: The Presidential Race
03
05
02
04
06Political Party/Coalition Alignment + Reasons
07
Awareness of/Voting Intentions for Presidential Candidates with Multiple Voter Turnout Scenarios
08Making Ballot Choices: Several Explorative Correlations
Voter Registration Status
Household Economic Conditions and Kenya’s Direction
Election Security and Integrity Issues
Methodology & Demographics
3 © 2017 Ipsos.
Statutory Compliance
THE PUBLICATION OF ELECTORAL OPINION POLLS ACT (2012):
ALL ELECTION-RELATED SURVEY RESULTS RELEASED WITHIN 12 MONTHS OF A GENERALELECTION MUST COMPLY WITH THE PROVISIONS OF THE PUBLICATION OF ELECTORALOPINION POLLS ACT (2012).
IPSOS HAS COMPLIED WITH THIS ACT BY INCLUDING ALL REQUIRED INFORMATION,MAINLY IN THE INFORMATION ON METHODOLOGY. MEDIA HOUSES ARE URGED TOREFER TO THE ACT TO ENSURE SIMILAR COMPLIANCE.
4 © 2017 Ipsos.
Sampling and Data Weighting
Fieldwork for this survey was conducted during 22-30 July. It being Ipsos’ final 2017 pre-election survey, it is important to make the methods by which the data were obtained and the results calculated and analyzed as clear as possible. These include especially the following:
1) The spatial-geographic allocation of the total sample was based on the most recent voter registration data provided by the IEBC.
2) Following random household selection within the determined Sampling Points, any household member above 17 years of age who was encountered was asked to provide the (first) names of all household members know to be registered voters.
3) The process of random respondent-selection was then employed based on those adult household members identified as being registered voters (with only one member per household being eligible for interviews).
5 © 2017 Ipsos.
Sampling and Data Weighting (con’t)5) At the start of the interview, the selected household member was asked to confirm that s/he is in fact a registered voter. It not, the interview was terminated.
6) Those with whom the interview continued were then asked to provide the name of their Polling Station. If they could/would not, the interview was similarly terminated.
7) Those with whom the interview continued further were (later) asked “how certain” were they that they would actually vote on August 8. Results presented below both (separately) include and exclude them (since they might change their mind after the interview).
8) After commencing the interview, all respondents were shown how the Smart-Phones used for data capture and transmission operate, also giving them the opportunity to answer the question about their gender, in order that he understand how these devices work. Then, later on, when the question about theiintended presidential vote, they were invited to enter their response confidentially, so that the interviewer would not know who their preferred candidate is. (About two-thirds of all respondents did so, with the rest asking the interviewer to do this for them.) Ipsos believes that this opportunity for such confidentiality increases the proportion of ‘true’ responses obtained.
6 © 2017 Ipsos.
Sampling and Data Weighting (con’t)
9) Presidential vote-preferences are presented using the following parameters:
a) For all respondentsb) For all respondents without those who stated they were undecided or who would not reveal their
preferencesc) For all respondents without those who stated they were undecided or who would not reveal their
preferences weighted according to the basic demographic parameters provided by IEBC, specifically:- Male/Female ratio- Age- Education
c) For those who revealed their preferences weighted according to official voter turnout in the 2013
election (a 4 percent advantage for Jubilee)
d) For those who revealed their preferences weighted according to possible voter turnout that reversed
the 2013 Jubilee advantage in favor of NASA (i.e., a 4 percent turnout advantage)
7 © 2017 Ipsos.
Sampling and Data Weighting (con’t)
As indicated, the margin-of-error for each of these sets of results is +/-1.49%, based on the total sample size of 4,308. Due to this (modest) sample size, county results are presented only for Nairobi (together with other regions), for which the sample was 495. This yields a margin-of-error of +/-4.4%, meaning that if voter turnout were 100 percent, or if all those who are registered in Nairobi but did not vote are evenly divided between Jubilee and NASA supporters/potential voters, the survey’s results could be within an 8 percent range: up to 4% greater or 4% lower than the actual, official results (or would fall within this range once-in-twenty times – a 95% confidence level – if the survey employing the identical methodology were repeated that many times.
In offering the above scenarios, Ipsos wishes to make clear that since turnout variations across the country cannot be predicted, there is no ‘correct’ turnout scenario. Nor could Ipsos possibly take into account any anomalies or technical failures in the administration of the electoral process. Assuming none of the latter occur, Ipsos will then be in a position to provide a post-election analysis of the results of this survey, weighting the data in terms of the actual/official voter turnout figures.
8 © 2017 Ipsos.
Sampling and Data Weighting (con’t)
Also note that for the distribution of the presidential vote by region, results have been presented by both the eight (former) provinces, and by these same units but with Eastern divided in “Upper” and “Lower”, and Rift Valley divided into “Central” and “Pastoralists’, as follows:
- Upper Eastern: Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru and Embu- Lower Eastern: Machakos, Makueni, Kitui
Central Rift: Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Trans-Nzoia, West Pokot, Bomet, Nakuru, Kericho, Laikipia
Pastoralists: Turkana, Narok, Kajiado
9 © 2016 Ipsos.
Cautionary Point: Recent EventsFieldwork for this survey was conducted between 3-12 July, 2017. During and after that time several developments occurred whose (full) impact may not be reflected in some of the results reported in this survey. Among them are:
• President Kenyatta fails to appear at debate with Raila Odinga (24 July)
• NASA leaders claim Jubilee plans to use the military to rig the election, together with ballot-stuffing using secretly printed presidential ballots (28 July)
• IEBC announces that only one agent per party will be allowed in polling stations (24 July)
• Cleaning of voters’ Register (Early July)
10 © 2016 Ipsos.
Cautionary Point Recent Events Not (Fully) Captured (con’t):
• IEBC announces that it will not provide in-progress presidential vote totals as constituency results are announced, but only the final total, since constituency results will be in the public domain (26 July)
• Uhuru rebukes Raila for accusing the Military of being used for pro-Jubilee electoral purposes on the basis that if the latter wins, he would expect this same Military to serve him as Commander-in-Chief (26-28 July)
• Body of IEBC ICT Chief Chris Musando found murdered along with that of an unknown woman, and his body identified two days later, the day he was to lead a demonstration of the IEBC’s election technology (29, 31 July)
11 © 2017 Ipsos.
“If elections were held today, whom would you vote for as president and deputy-president?”(Single Response, Unprompted): by Total
(Base: n=4,308)
47%44%
0%
5%1%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Uhuru/Ruto Raila/Kalonzo Others (6 Mentions) Undecided Will Not Vote RTA
NOTE: TO ENHANCE THE RELIABILITY OF THE DATA,RESPONDENTS WERE INVITED TO ENTER THEIR RESPONSESTO THIS QUESTION ON THE INTERVIEWERS’ SMART-PHONESTHEMSELVES
VOTERS’ EFFORTS TO DETERMINE REGISTRATION STATUS AND DECLARED CERTAINTY OF VOTING
12 © 2016 Ipsos.
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“Where are you registered to vote? Here or somewhere else?”: by Total
Immediate Area/Nearby, 86%
A Neighboring Ward/Constituency, 5%
In Rural/Original Home, 7%
Somewhere Else Where Has
Property/Business/Family, 2%
14 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Where are you registered to vote? Here or somewhere else?”: by Region
91% 90% 89% 89% 88%85% 84%
70%
4% 5% 5% 4% 3%
14%
4%10%
3% 4% 4% 6% 7%1%
10%
18%
2% 1% 2% 1% 3%0%
3% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Eastern(n=651)
Nyanza(n=591)
Coast (n=376) Central(n=640)
Western(n=424)
North Eastern(n=129)
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
Nairobi(n=495)
Immediate Area/Nearby A Neighboring Ward/Constituency
In Rural/Original Home Somewhere Else Where Has Property/Business/Family
15 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Why did you not register here where you are living?”: by Total (Among the 14% Who Did Not Register Where They Are Living)
7%
3%
1%
4%
5%
5%
9%
17%
48%
0% 20% 40% 60%
N/A
Other
No Nearby Polling Station
Place of Work
On Behalf of a Candidate/Political Party
Fear of Violence
Has Moved/Relocated
Has More Interest (Business, etc.)
Has More Interest in the Area/Area of Birth
(Base: n=616)
16 © 2017 Ipsos.
“After you registered, did you ever go back to your polling station to confirm your name is recorded?” And when you did, did you confirm your name was there?”: by Total, Region
98%99%
98%98%
99%
82%
98%
95%
% Saying “Yes”
89%92% 92% 90% 90% 89% 88%
83% 83%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total(n=4,308)
Eastern(n=651)
Nyanza(n=591)
Central(n=640)
Western(n=424)
North Eastern(n=129)
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
Nairobi(n=495)
Coast (n=376)
99%98%
98%99%
98%99% 99%99%
98%
17 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Have you tried to confirm that your name is in the IEBC Voters’ Register by sending an SMS with your ID to their phone number?: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
36% 36%40%
62% 63%59%
1% 1% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Yes No No: Has No Phone/No Local Network
18 © 2017 Ipsos.
“As of now, how certain are you that you will find your name in the Register when you go and vote on election day? Are you.....?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
94% 95% 93%
5% 4% 6%1% 1% 1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Completely Certain Only Somewhat Certain Not Sure At All
19 © 2017 Ipsos.
“As of now, how certain are you that you will find your name in the Register when you go and vote on election day? Are you.....?”: by Region
96% 95% 94% 94% 93% 91% 90% 89%
3% 4% 5% 4% 6% 7% 8% 7%0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central (n=640) Western(n=424)
Eastern (n=651) Rift Valley(n=1,004)
Nyanza (n=591) Coast (n=376) Nairobi (n=495) North Eastern(n=129)
Completely Certain Only Somewhat Certain Not Sure At All
20 © 2015 Ipsos.2020202020202020
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, KENYA’S DIRECTION
20 © 2015 Ipsos.
21 © 2016 Ipsos.
“During the last three months, have the general economic conditions for you and your family…?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
19%
28%
9%
23%27%
19%
57%
43%
72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Improved Stayed the Same Worsened
22 © 2016 Ipsos.
“During the last three months, have the general economic conditions for you and your family…?”: by Region
29%24% 24%
18% 18%
12% 11%8%
25% 24%
46%
20%15%
22%
29%25%
44%
51%
30%
62%66% 65%
60%
66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central (n=640) Rift Valley(n=1,004)
North Eastern(n=129)
Eastern (n=651) Western (n=424) Nairobi (n=495) Coast (n=376) Nyanza (n=591)
Improved Stayed the Same Worsened
23 © 2017 Ipsos.
Change in Household Economic Conditions Over the Last 3 Months – Trend Analysis: June 2013 – Late July 2017
16%
20%
17% 19% 21%26%
22%
29%
19% 19%17% 7%
14% 19%
49%
60% 56% 59%52%
41%48%
41%
54%53% 54%
76%
65%
57%
34%
19%
26%21%
26% 31% 29%
29%
27% 27%28%
17% 20%23%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
June 2013 Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015 Aug. 2015 Nov. 2015 June.2016
Jan. 2017 May. 2017 Early July.2017
Late July.2017
Improved Worsened Stayed the Same
24 © 2016 Ipsos.
“Since the last election in 2013, have the general economic conditions for you and your family…?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
28%
45%
12%
23%25%
21%
47%
29%
66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Improved Stayed the Same Worsened
25 © 2016 Ipsos.
“Since the last election in 2013, have the general economic conditions for you and your family…?”: by Region
52%
37%34%
31%
21%
12% 12% 11%
21%26%
46%
21% 23%26%
15%
24%25%
37%
19%
47%
54%
60%
73%
65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central(n=640)
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
North Eastern(n=129)
Eastern(n=651)
Nairobi(n=495)
Coast (n=376) Western(n=424)
Nyanza(n=591)
Improved Stayed the Same Worsened
26 © 2017 Ipsos.
““Since the last election in 2013, have the general economic conditions for you and your family…?”: Trend Analysis: Aug. 2015 – Late July 2017
43%
32% 33% 35%
23%27% 28%
37%
49%46%
44%
60%56%
47%
19%
17%19% 19%
16% 16%
23%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aug. 2015 Nov. 2015 June. 2016 Jan. 2017 May. 2017 Early July. 2017 Late July 2017
Improved Worsened Stayed the Same
27 © 2017 Ipsos.
“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
38%
66%
11%
50%
20%
82%
10% 12%
6%2% 2% 1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure
28 © 2017 Ipsos.
“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?” (Not shown: “Neither Right Nor Wrong”, “Not Sure”): by Region
72%
52%
42%36%
31%
19%15% 13%14%
35%
46%51%
56%
64%
76%79%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central(n=640)
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
North Eastern(n=129)
Eastern(n=651)
Nairobi(n=495)
Coast (n=376) Western(n=424)
Nyanza(n=591)
Right Direction Wrong Direction
29 © 2017 Ipsos.
“On the whole, thinking about Kenya today, are things generallygoing in the right or wrong direction?” – Trend Analysis (Nov. 2013 – Late July 2017)
29% 30%26%
29%32%
29%
47%
22%26%
30%
18%
27%
38%
64% 62% 60% 58%
52% 52%
37%
67%
60%55%
71%
61%
50%
7% 7% 13% 14% 16% 19% 17%10% 11% 11% 11%
9% 10%
Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015 Aug. 2015 Nov. 2015 June.2016
Jan. 2017 May 2017 Early July2017
Late July2017
Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong/Not Sure
30 © 2017 Ipsos.3030303030303030
SECURITY AND ELECTION INTEGRITY ISSUES
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31 © 2017 Ipsos.
“What would you say is the main threat to security in this area?”: (Single Response, Unprompted) by Total
1%
20%
16%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
15%
28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
RTA
None
DK
Other (13 Mentions)
Vigilante Groups/Local Militia
Wildlife
Other Clans/Tribes
Al-Shabaab/Muslim Extremists
Police
Drug Users/Addicts
Political Rivals
Livestock Rustlers
Jobless Youth
Thieves and Robbers
32 © 2017 Ipsos.
“What would you say is the main threat to security in this area?”:by Region
Main Security ThreatCentral (n=640)
Coast (n=376)
Eastern (n=651)
Nairobi (n=495)
North Eastern (n=129)
Nyanza (n=591)
Rift Valley (n=1,004)
Western (n=424)
Thieves and Robbers 25% 18% 34% 34% 7% 39% 18% 40%
Jobless Youth 10% 17% 7% 28% 10% 22% 13% 15%
Political Rivals 1% 4% 2% 2% 17% 4% 6% 5%
Livestock Rustlers 2% 2% 7% 0% 12% 9% 7% 1%
Al-Shabaab/Muslim Extremists 0% 7% 1% 1% 22% 0% 0% 0%
Drug Users/Addicts 3% 12% 1% 2% 0% 3% 1% 2%
Other Clans/Tribes 0% 0% 2% 2% 5% 0% 5% 1%
Police 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3%
Vigilante Groups/Local Militia 1% 2% 0% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2%
DK 16% 25% 8% 14% 9% 15% 16% 24%
None 39% 7% 33% 6% 15% 2% 28% 3%
33 © 2017 Ipsos.
“So far, has there been any election-related violence in this area?”:by Total, Region
12%9%
17%
81%
86%
75%
7% 5%8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Yes No Not Sure
34 © 2017 Ipsos.
“So far, has there been any election-related violence in this area?”:by Total, Region
11%
20%
16%
11%10%
9%8% 8%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Total(n=4,308)
Nyanza(n=591)
Nairobi(n=495)
Western(n=424)
Eastern(n=651)
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
North Eastern(n=129)
Coast (n=376) Central(n=640)
% Saying “Yes”
35 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Do you believe there is likely to be any violence in this area in connection with contests for either the county and local or the national/ presidential election?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
10%
24%
9%
35%
20%
12%
20%
6%
43%
18%
9%
32%
12%
26%
21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
County/Local Only National/Presidential Only Both County/Local andNational/Presidential
Neither Not Sure
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
36 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Do you believe there is likely to be any violence in this area in connection with contests for either the county and local or the national/ presidential election?”: by Region
Scope/Loci of ViolenceCentral (n=640) Coast (n=376)
Eastern (n=651)
Nairobi (n=495)
North Eastern (n=129)
Nyanza (n=591)
Rift Valley (n=1,004)
Western (n=424)
National/Presidential Only 23% 14% 20% 38% 27% 30% 20% 29%
County/Local Only 9% 8% 13% 8% 8% 11% 14% 6%
Both County/Local and National/Presidential 5% 8% 5% 8% 16% 17% 6% 15%
Neither 55% 45% 50% 35% 16% 14% 32% 14%
Not Sure/NR 8% 25% 13% 10% 33% 29% 28% 36%
37 © 2017 Ipsos.
“How much confidence do you have in…? Do you have…?”: by Total
49%
38%
30%
33%
34%
38%
36%
48%
27%
32%
36%
32%
34%
34%
31%
26%
10%
12%
15%
12%
14%
11%
14%
11%
11%
10%
12%
14%
14%
9%
17%
12%
3%
9%
7%
9%
4%
8%
2%
3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
KDF/The Military
International ElectionObservers
Domestic ElectionObservers
Attorney-General
The Judiciary
Chief Justice
Kenya Police
IEBC
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE SOME CONFIDENCE ONLY A LITTLE CONFIDENCE NO CONFIDENCE AT ALL DK
38 © 2015 Ipsos.
“Please tell me how much confidence you have in the IEBC…?” (Trend Analysis – Feb. 2013 – July 2017 (Results for “Some Confidence” and “Only a Little Confidence” Not Shown )
62%
32%
30%
21%16%
23% 23%
16% 18% 18% 21%
31% 33%39%
43%
2%
22%
32%25%
29% 31%25% 28% 28% 28%
35%
19%14%
16%12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Feb.2013
(n=5,971)
June2013
(n=2,000)
Nov.2013
(n=2,060)
Feb.2014
(n=2,031)
May 2014(n=2,059)
Sept.2014
(n=2,021)
Nov.2014
(n=2,005)
April2015
(n=1,964)
Aug.2015
(n=2,002)
Nov.2015
(n=2,058)
June.2016
(n=2,067)
Jan. 2017(n=2,057)
May.2017
(n=2,026)
EarlyJuly.2017
(n=2,209)
Late July.2017
(n=4,308)
A lot of Confidence No Confidence at all
39 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC tomanage the next general election?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
61%
78%
45%
24%
12%
38%
14%9%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Yes No Not Sure
40 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC to manage the next general election?”: by Region
76% 75%
67%
59% 59%
49%44%
40%
16%13% 15%
26% 28%33%
40% 40%
8%12%
17%14% 13%
18% 16%20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
Central(n=640)
Eastern(n=651)
Western(n=424)
North Eastern(n=129)
Nairobi(n=495)
Coast (n=376) Nyanza(n=591)
Yes No Not Sure
41 © 2016 Ipsos.
“Do you think voters will have enough confidence in the IEBC to manage the next general election?”: by Total, Main Political Party/ Coalition Alignment – Trend Analysis: April 2015 – Late July 2017
42% 43%40% 34%
50%60% 57% 61%
61%66%
63%57%
72%
79% 75%
78%
21%13% 15%
7%
26%
43% 43% 45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
April. 2015 Aug. 2015 Nov. 2015 June. 2016 Jan. 2017 May. 2017 Early July. 2017 Late July. 2017
Total Jubilee NASA
% saying “Yes”
42 © 2016 Ipsos.
“Do you have confidence that if any presidential election petition is taken to the Supreme Court after the next election the case will be decided fairly without any political or financial interference?”: by Total, Main Political Party/Coalition Alignment
48%
61%
36%37%
26%
47%
15%12%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Yes No Not Sure
43 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Up to now, are you aware of anything in this area that might make thecoming election less than completely free and fair?”: by Total
12%9%
17%
81%86%
75%
7% 5%8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783)
Yes No Not Sure
44 © 2017 Ipsos.
“What were these violations of ‘free and fair’ practice that you have witnessed so far?” (By The 13% Who Have Witnessed Any)
7%
1%
2%
3%
3%
5%
5%
7%
9%
13%
14%
15%
26%
30%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
N/A
Malfunction of IEBC Technology
Harrasment by Security Officers/Insecurity
Lack of Transparency in IEBC
Ethnic Tensions
Planting/Insertion of ‘Fake’ Candidates
Removal/Destruction of Campaign Posters
Incumbents' Use of State/Public resources
Names of Deceased in Register
Threats/intimidation to Discouarge Turnout
Buying of ID Cards
Discrimination During Voter Registration
Vote-Buying/Distribution of Gifts
Rigged Party nominations
(Base: n=517)
POLITICAL PARTY/COALITION ALIGNMENT
45 © 2017 Ipsos.
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4
“Which political party/coalition do you feel closest to, if any?”: by Total
(Base = 4,308)
45%
41%
1% 1%
6%4%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jubilee NASA KANU Other (11Mentions)
Undecided None RTA
47 © 2017 Ipsos.
4
“What is the main reason you feel close to this political party/coalition?”:by Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions (Among The 95% Who Say They Support Any) (Single Response, Unprompted)
Main Reason Total (n=4,076) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,997) NASA Supporters (n=1,781) % Difference
The Economy/Development 49% 65% 37% -28%
Manifesto Policies (General) 10% 5% 17% +12%
Devolution 5% 3% 7% -4%
Peace/Ethnic Harmony 4% 6% 2% -4%
Dynamic leadership 4% 3% 7% +4%
Equity/Reducing the Rich-Poor Gap 3% 2% 4% +2%
Ethnic Inclusion/National Unity 3% 1% 5% +4%
Education 3% 4% 1% -3%
Desire Change (Unspecified) 3% 1% 5% +4%
Accountability/Ending Impunity 2% 1% 3% +2%
Local Social Conformity 2% 1% 3% +2%
New Constitution (Unspecified) 1% 1% 1% 0%
Security (Terrorism/Crime) 1% 1% 1% 0%
Group Funds (Youth, Women, Disabled, etc.) 1% 1% 0% -1%
Minority Rights 1% 0% 1% +1%
Ethnic/Regional Affinity 1% 1% 2% +1%
Other (6 Mentions) 0% 1% 0% -1%
No Specific Reason 7% 3% 2% -1%
N/A 1% 1% 1% 0%
48 © 2017 Ipsos.
4
“Which political party/coalition do you feel closest to if any?”: by Total (%s Shown Only for Jubilee, NASA, Undecided, “None” + RTA) –Trend Analysis: Jan. 2014 – Late July 2017
44% 44% 46%51%
44%48%
45% 46%45% 45% 44% 45%
38% 38%36%
31% 32% 31% 32% 32% 34%
41% 42% 41%
0% 1% 0%4% 4%
6% 7% 9%8% 5% 5% 6%
13% 12%15%
10% 10%13% 13% 11%
12% 7%7%
4%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan. 2014(n=2,031)
May. 2014(n=2059)
Sept. 2014(n=2,021)
Dec. 2014(n=2,005)
April. 2015(n=1,964)
Aug. 2015(n=2,002)
Nov. 2015(n=2,058)
June. 2016(n=2,076)
Jan. 2017(n=2,057)
May. 2017(n=2,026)
Early July.2017
(n=2,209)
Late July2017
(n=4,308)
Jubilee NASA Undecided None/RTA
49 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Whether or not you support any particular political party or coalition, do you think there is any political party in Kenya that genuinely represents the interests of ordinary Kenyans?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions /Undecided/None
58%63% 61%
26% 24%
37%33% 35%
55%
64%
6% 4% 4%
19%
12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters(n=1,999)
NASA Supporters(n=1,783)
Undecided (n=246) None (n=167)
Yes No Not Sure
AWARENESS OF/ VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
50 © 2017 Ipsos.
51 © 2017 Ipsos.
“As far as you know, which individuals have announced their interest in contesting the forthcoming presidential election?”(Multiple Response,Unprompted): by Total
1%
1%
2%
5%
11%
14%
14%
17%
35%
98%
98%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
DK
Other (Non-Candidates)
Peter Gichira
Japheth Kavinga Kaluyu
Prof. Michael Wainaina
Ekuru Aukot
Cyrus Jirongo
Joe Nyagah
Abduba Dida
Uhuru
Raila
52 © 2017 Ipsos.
“If elections were held today, whom would you vote for as president and deputy-president?”(Single Response, Unprompted): by Total
(Base: n=4,308)
47%44%
0%
5%1%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Uhuru/Ruto Raila/Kalonzo Others (6 Mentions) Undecided Will Not Vote RTA
NOTE: TO ENHANCE THE RELIABILITY OF THE DATA,RESPONDENTS WERE INVITED TO ENTER THEIR RESPONSESTO THIS QUESTION ON THE INTERVIEWERS’ SMART-PHONESTHEMSELVES
53 © 2017 Ipsos.
“If elections were held today, whom would you vote for as president and deputy-president?”(Single Response, Unprompted): by Region
(Base: n=4,308)
CandidatesCentral (n=640)
Coast (n=376)
Eastern (n=651)
Nairobi (n=495)
North Eastern (n=129)
Nyanza (n=591)
Rift Valley (n=1,004)
Western (n=424)
Uhuru/Ruto 88% 26% 50% 34% 40% 13% 65% 16%
Raila/Kalonzo 5% 61% 40% 56% 54% 80% 25% 64%
Ekuru Aukot 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Abduba Dida 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Prof. Michael Wainaina 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joe Nyagah 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Japheth Kavinga Kaluyu 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 2% 8% 4% 5% 1% 6% 6% 14%
Will Not Vote 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0%
RTA 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% 1% 3% 6%
54 © 2017 Ipsos.
“If elections were held today, whom would you vote for as president and deputy-president?”(Single Response, Unprompted): by Region
CandidatesTotal
(n=4,308)Central (n=640)
Coast (n=376)
Nairobi (n=495)
North Eastern (n=129)
Nyanza (n=591)
Western (n=424)
Lower Eastern (n=317)
Upper Eastern (n=317)
Central Rift (n=796)
PastoralistsRift (n=208)
Uhuru/Ruto 47% 89% 26% 34% 40% 13% 16% 18% 84% 72% 40%
Raila/Kalonzo 44% 5% 62% 56% 54% 80% 64% 67% 12% 19% 50%
Other (6 Mentions) 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 5% 2% 6% 4% 1% 6% 14% 6% 2% 5% 5%
Will Not Vote 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1%
RTA 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% 6% 8% 1% 2% 4%
55 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Over the last 2 months, since after NASA announced their candidate, have you changed your choice of presidential candidate?”: by Total, Region
(Base: n=4,308)
5%
11%
7%6% 6%
5%
3% 3%2%
0%
10%
20%
Total(n=4,308)
North Eastern(n=129)
Nyanza(n=591)
Rift Valley(n=1,004)
Nairobi(n=495)
Eastern(n=651)
Coast (n=376) Western(n=424)
Central(n=640)
% Saying “Yes”
56 © 2017 Ipsos.
Presidential Vote Choice: by Total, Those Who Did/Did Not Confirm with SMS, Those Certain Their Names Are in Register. Voter Turnout in 2013, Reverse Turnout of 4% for NASA
47% 45%
61%
47% 47% 46%44%47%
35%
43% 43% 44%
5% 5%2%
5% 5% 5%3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,038) Those With SMSConfirmation
(n=2,154)
Those Without SMSConfirmation (n=392)
Those CompletelyCertain They Will Find
Their Name in theRegister (n=3,885)
With 2013 TurnoutRate
With 4% TurnoutAdvantage for NASA
Uhuru/Ruto Raila/Kalonzo Undecided Will Not Vote RTA
57 © 2017 Ipsos.
Presidential Vote Choice: by Total, Those Who Did/Did Not Confirm withSMS, Those Certain Their Names Are in Register. Voter Turnout in 2013,
Reverse Turnout of 4% for NASA (Uhuru and Raila Only): (Calculated Without “Undecided”, “Will Not Vote”, RTA)
52% 51% 52% 52% 51%48% 49% 48% 48% 49%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,038) Those With Who Used SMSTo Confirm (n=2,154)
Those Completely CertainThey Will Find Their Name in
the Register (n=3,885)
With 2013 Turnout Rate With 4% Turnout Advantagefor NASA
Uhuru/Ruto Raila/Kalonzo
58 © 2017 Ipsos.
Presidential Candidate Preferences: by Total Without ”Undecided”/”Will Not Vote”/RTA - Time Series: Nov. 2014 – Late July 2017
55% 56%52%
47%
58%
54% 52% 52% 52%
0% 0% 0% 1% 1%3%
0% 0% 0%
29%32%
25%34%
32%35% 47% 48% 48%
3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 7%
0% 0% 0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Nov. 2014 April. 2015 Aug. 2015 Nov. 2015 June. 2016 Jan. 2017 May. 2017 Early July.2017
Late July. 2017
Uhuru Mudavadi Raila Kalonzo
59 © 2017 Ipsos.5959595959595959
MAKING BALLOT CHOICES:SEVERAL EXPLORATIVE CORRELATIONS
59 © 2017 Ipsos.
60 © 2017 Ipsos.
Correlation: Presidential Vote-Choice (Without “Others”/“Will Not Vote”): by Reported Change In Household Economic Conditions “Since the last election in 2013”
75%
50%
28%
18%
40%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Improved (n=1,211) Stayed the Same (n=1,002) Worsened (n=2,044)
Uhuru/Ruto Raila/Kalonzo
61 © 2017 Ipsos.
Correlation: Presidential Vote-Choice (Without “Others”/“Will Not Vote”): by Kenya’s Perceived Direction
81%
18%
58%
12%
71%
29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Right Direction (n=1,643) Wrong Direction (n=2,145) Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction (n=411)
Uhuru/Ruto Raila/Kalonzo
62 © 2017 Ipsos.
“Which of the following types of political systems do you think is best for Kenya?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions
17%21%
12%
21%
2% 2% 2% 3%
74%71%
81%
59%
2% 2% 2%5%4% 3% 3%
9%
1% 0% 0%3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total (n=4,308) Jubilee Supporters (n=1,999) NASA Supporters (n=1,783) Undecided (n=246)
Single Party Military Rule Multi-Party One Man Civilian Rule Not Sure RTA
63 © 2016 Ipsos.6363636363636363
METHODOLOGY
63 © 2017 Ipsos.
64 © 2017 Ipsos.
Methodology
Dates of Fieldwork 22nd – 30TH JULY, 2017
Sample Size 4,308 (Total Individual Contacts: 9,354)
Sampling MethodologyRandom, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Spread across 47 counties
Population Universe Registered Voters, living in Urban and Rural areas
Data Collection Methodology Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Sampling Error+/-1.49% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Interview Languages English, Swahili, Somali
Survey Content Sponsor Ipsos (Kenya)
65 © 2017 Ipsos.
Sample Structure Statistics
RegionSample Frame statistics
(July 2017)*Weighted data
%
of SampleIEBC Register
%
of Registered
Voters
Central 640 15 2,910,465 15
Coast 376 9 1,713,151 9
Eastern 651 15 2,960,224 15
Nairobi 495 11 2,250,853 11
North Eastern 129 3 501,894 3
Nyanza 591 14 2,688,104 14
Rift Valley 1004 23 4,649,768 23
Western 424 10 1,927,043 10
TOTAL 4,308 100 19,601,502 100
66 © 2017 Ipsos.
Kenya Population Density
67 © 2017 Ipsos.
Quality Control Measures
IPSOS EMPLOYS QUALITY CONTROL MEASURES TO ENSURE THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE INTEGRITY OF OBTAINED RESULTS/DATA
• For at least 15% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
• Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
• After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 20% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
• Mobile data collection platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
• Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity with the flow of the questions answered by the respondents.
• Sample quotas were monitored to match the sample’s statistical parameters.
68 © 2017 Ipsos.6868686868686868
RESPONDENTS’ DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
68 © 2017 Ipsos.
(Weighted for: Gender, Age,
Region and Setting)
69 © 2017 Ipsos.
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
41%
26%
16%
9%
7%
2%
53%
47%
17%
30%
22%
31%
Mainstream Protestant
Catholic
Other Christian
Muslim
SDA
Atheist/None
Male
Female
18 – 24 years
25 – 34 years
35 – 44 years
45+ years
Gender
Age
63%
37%
35%
27%
16%
6%
4%
4%
3%
1%
1%
2%
Rural
Urban
Self-employment
Agriculture
Private sector
Public Sector
Livestock
Given money by others
Casual labour
Pension from previous employment
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
Main Source of Household Income
Setting
Religion
70 © 2017 Ipsos.
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
42%
15%
13%
10%
9%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Peasant/herder (ownfarm/pasture)
Employed in the privatesector
Casual labour
Employed in the publicsector
Student
Retired
Employed in NGO/religioussector
Unable to work
Employment Status
28%
17%
15%
12%
6%
5%
5%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Agriculture produce marketing
General goods kiosk
Foodstuffs kiosk
Formal private sector (business…
Electrical/mechanical repair/sales
Livestock marketing
Transport (owner/driver)
Builder
Hairdressing
Artist
Boutique
Tailoring
NR
Type of Self-Employment
Total Wage Employment: 14%
Base: (n=1,803)
71 © 2017 Ipsos.
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
15%
42%
12%
10%
9%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
Unemployed
Self-Employed
Peasant/herder (own…
Employed in the private sector
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other (specify)
Unable to work
Employment Status
54%
24%
12%
1%
1%
2%
3%
Casual manual labor
Sold produce
From other people
Broker
Online jobs
N/A
NoneBase: (n=236)
Main Source of Money (of the 33% Who Report Having Earned Any)
Total Wage Employment: 14%
72 © 2017 Ipsos.
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Level of Education
Estimated Total Monthly Household Income
5%
15%
21%
14%
24%
5%
8%
2%
4%
1%
41%
33%
12%
4%
4%
4%
3%
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not university)
Completed mid-level college (Not University)
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
No Income - 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 -Above
DK
RTA
73 © 2017 Ipsos.
Contacts
Dr. Tom WolfResearch Analyst
Follow us on twitter: @IpsosKe
Nicholas MwendaProject Assistant-Opinion Polls
Hilda KirituDirector, Public Affairs
74 © 2017 Ipsos.
ABOUT IPSOS
Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery.
Ipsos is listed on Eurolist - NYSE-Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
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GAME CHANGERS
At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions.
We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do.
Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative.
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“GAME CHANGERS” - our tagline - summarises our ambition.
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