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Precious Metals SME NY Chapter 11 March 2010 Jeffrey M. Christian Managing Director [email protected] 30 Broad Street | 37 th Floor New York, NY 10004 www.cpmgroup.com
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Precious Metals
SME NY Chapter11 March 2010
Jeffrey M. ChristianManaging [email protected]
30 Broad Street | 37th FloorNew York, NY 10004www.cpmgroup.com
The Macroeconomic Environment
Economic Tar Pits to Avoid
• While the depth of the recent recession has exceeded the problems of past recessions since the Great Depression, the degree to which this recession has been in line with other post-war recessions probably is greater than the degree to which it has greatly exceeded past recessionary trends.
• Global decoupling has not been happening. In fact, global economies are more interwoven with each other than before.
• The U.S. economy is not on its back, over the hill, passé, or particularly volatile.
• The Chinese economy most likely does not face a bust.
The Economic Outlook
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09p 10p 11p 12p 13p-4
-3
-2
-1
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9
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
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8
9World Emerging EconomiesAdvanced Economies
% Change % Change
Real Gross Domestic ProductAnnual, Projected Through 2013
Source: IMF
The Economy has been less volatile than in the Good Old Days
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Percent Change Percent Change
2006
U.S. real GDP: 1850 – 1919, 16 recessions, 22 month average length; 1945 – 2007, 10 recessions, 10 months average length
The past 25 years to 2007 were the most stable in U.S. history
U.S. real GDP: 1945 – 1983, 8 recessions, 11 month average length; 1983 – 2007, 2 recessions, 8 months average length
U.S. Inflation May Remain Calm
1947 1953 1958 1964 1969 1975 1980 1986 1991 1997 2002 2008-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
CPI: All Items CPI: All Items Less Food & Energy
U.S. CPI : All Items and All Items Less Food & Energy
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Percent Change Year-on-Year Through December 2009
Percent Percent
Inflation Fears Are Based On Narrow Money Supply’s Sharp Increase
But Inflation May Be Contained: Broad Money Supply Has Not Yet Expanded
Lagging Indicators
Many market commentaries are focusing on the high, if not still rising, unemployment figures in the United States (and other countries), and the continued absence of bank lending to corporations and individuals as indications that the recession is still underway.
Both of these factors tend to lag economic activity, however. Neither of them are leading indicators of an economic recovery.
•Unemployment tends to continue rising into an economic recovery, and only peak and decline well into a recovery.
•In past economic cycles banks have remained on the sidelines as lenders until an economic recovery is well established.
U.S. Unemployment
Credit availability has collapsed
The Dollar Will Remain The Main Reserve Currency For Years
•Slow diversification into the euro has been happening for a decade. It will continue to occur.
• There is no credible alternative to the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
•Demand for U.S. dollars as a reserve currency is still strong.
•The dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status in the foreseeable future.
The Dollar Will Remain The Main Reserve Currency For Years
72.7%
61.6%
17.0%
27.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
US Dollar
Euro
Source: Goldman Sachs
Commodities Prices and the U.S. Dollar
J-70 J-73 J-76 J-79 J-82 J-85 J-88 J-91 J-94 J-97 J-00 J-03 J-06 J-09-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
f(x) = − 3.93211200903314E-05 x + 1.12774787784583R² = 0.071141075566979
Rolling 1-year Correlation Coefficient between CRB and the J.P. Morgan trade-weighted dollar Computed using monthly data
Correlation Coefficient
Market Myths About China
There are many myths and misconceptions about short- and long-term trends in China’s economic development, and its place in the world.
•Myth 1: China will soon displace the United States and other industrialized nations as the major economic engine.
•Opposite Myth: The United States will continue to exert economic and political hegemony over the world.
Both extremes are wrong.
China is growing in importance. So, too, are other countries that are emerging from long periods of restrictive economic policies.
While they will become ever more important to the global economy, they will not supplant the United States in terms of total economic size, either in real output or in consumption and investing.
Myth 2: The Chinese Economy Faces a Bust
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
2008
2010p
2012p
2014p0
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4
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
China Real GDPAnnual Percentage Change, projected through 2014
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009
Percentage Change Percentage Change
Concerns about a potential collapse in Chinese economic growth seem overblown.
World GDP Shares
Major World Economies: Share of Global Gross Domestic Product
2008
RankPercent of
Total
United States 1 26.7%Japan 2 9.1%China 3 6.3%Germany 4 6.1%United Kingdom 6 4.8%France 5 4.6%Italy 7 3.6%Canada 8 2.6%Spain 9 2.5%Brazil 10 2.3%India 11 2.0%Russia 12 1.9%Other 27.5%Subtotal top economies 72.5%
Source: The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture
26.7%
9.1%
6.3%
6.1%4.8%4.6%3.6%
2.6%2.5%
2.3%2.0%1.9%
27.5%
United StatesJapanChinaGermanyUnited KingdomFranceItalyCanadaSpainBrazilIndiaRussiaOther
2008 Percent of Total
The World is Changing
Major World Economies: Share of Global Gross Domestic Product
2008 2030
RankPercent of
Total RankPercent of
Total
United States 1 26.7% 1 22.8%China 3 6.3% 2 15.5%Japan 2 9.1% 3 5.2%Germany 4 6.1% 4 4.3%India 11 2.0% 5 4.2%United Kingdom 5 4.8% 6 3.7%France 6 4.6% 7 3.3%Brazil 10 2.3% 8 2.6%Russia 12 1.9% 9 2.4%Italy 7 3.6% 10 2.3%Canada 8 2.6% 11 2.2%Spain 9 2.5% 12 1.8%Other 27.5% 29.7%Subtotal top economies 72.5% 70.3%
Notes: Adjusted for purchasing power parity.
Source: The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture
26.7%
6.3%
9.1%
6.1%
2.0%4.8%4.6%
2.3%1.9%
3.6%
2.6%2.5%
27.5%
United StatesChinaJapanGermanyIndiaUnited KingdomFranceBrazilRussiaItalyCanadaSpainOther
2008 Percent of Total
22.8%
15.5%
5.2%4.3%4.2%3.7%3.3%
2.6%2.4%
2.3%2.2%1.8%
29.7%
United StatesChinaJapanGermanyIndiaUnited KingdomFranceBrazilRussiaItalyCanadaSpainOther
2030 Percent of Total
Then again…
2008 2030 1820
RankPercent of
Total RankPercent of
Total RankPercent of
Total
China 3 6.3% 2 15.5% 1 32.9%
India 11 2.0% 5 4.2% 2 16.0%
France 6 4.6% 7 3.3% 3 5.5%
Russia 12 1.9% 9 2.4% 4 5.4%
United Kingdom 5 4.8% 6 3.7% 5 5.2%
Germany 4 6.1% 4 4.3% 6 3.8%
Italy 7 3.6% 10 2.3% 7 3.2%
Japan 2 9.1% 3 5.2% 8 3.0%
Spain 9 2.5% 12 1.8% 9 1.9%
United States 1 26.7% 1 22.8% 10 1.8%
Brazil 10 2.3% 8 2.6% NA NA
Canada 8 2.6% 11 2.2% NA NA
Subtotal top economies 72.5% 70.3% 78.7%
Notes: Adjusted for purchase power parity.
Sources: Angus Maddison's The World Economy (1820); ERS, USDA (2008, 2030)
Gold
Long-Term Gold Prices & the Recent Price Surge
7071727374 767677787979808182828384848586868787878888898990909191929393949595969697979899999900010102020203030304040405050506060606070707070809090909090909100
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1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
0
100
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800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
The Price of GoldWeekly Average London PM Fix, 5 March 2010
$ / Ounce $ / Ounce
000000 01010101 0202020202020202 03030303030303030303 04040404040404 050505050505050505 060606060606060606 070707070707070707 08080808 09090909090909090909090909090909200
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1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
200
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400
500
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700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
The Price of GoldWeekly Average London PM Fix, 5 March 2010
$ / Ounce $ / Ounce
10
Investment Demand’s Effect on Gold Prices
66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
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-10
0
10
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30
40
50
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-40
-20
0
20
40
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100
120
Million Ounces Percent
Percent Change in Price
Net Investment Demand (left scale)
Investment Demand's Effect on Gold Prices Price Change Through February 2010
Gold As a Percentage of Financial Assets
1968 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Percent Percent
Gold as a Percent of Global Financial Assets
Official Transactions
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00
01
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10p
-50
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-20
-10
0
10
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-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Net Purchases
Net Sales
Official Transactions
Monthly Official Transactions
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Gross Purchases
Gross Sales
Net Sales/Purchases
Central Bank Changes In Gold Holdings in 2009Excludes China's Purchases, and Indian and IMF Transactions
Central Bank and Investor Gold Holdings
50
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10p
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1,100
1,200
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1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
Million Ounces
Central Bank Gold Holdings and Investor Gold Holdings
Million Ounces
Central Bank Holdings
Investor Gold Holdings
Annual Total Supply
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
10
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120
130
0
10
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30
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90
100
110
120
130
Million Ounces
Secondary Supply
Other Mine Production
South African Mine Production
Million Ounces
Transitional Economies
10p
Annual Total SupplyProjected Through 2010
The Price of Gold and Cash Operating Costs of Production
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
100
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900
1,000
1,100
0
100
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1,000
1,100
Gold
Cash Costs
$/Ounce $/Ounce
The Price of Gold and Cash Operating Costs of Production
Annual Total Demand
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
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0
10
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Million Ounces
Jewelry, Developing Countries
Dental
Jewelry, Developed Countries
Million Ounces
Annual Total DemandProjected Through 2010
Other
Electronics
10p
Silver
Long-Term Silver Prices & the Recent Price Surge
00 010101 020202020202 0303030303 04040404 050505050505050505050505 060606060606060606 0707070707070707070707070707070707070707070708080808 0909090909090909090909090909090909090909090909090909090910101010102
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$/Ounce
$/Ounce
The Price of SilverWeekly Average Comex, Through 5 March 2010
$/Ounce
7576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506070809100
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0
5
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The Price of Silver Monthly Average Comex, Through February 2010$/Ounce $/Ounce
Daily Silver Prices
Jan-05 Jun-05 Dec-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Feb-106
7
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$/Ounce $/Ounce
Daily Silver Prices
Through 8 March 2010
Investors Continue to Buy High Volumes of Silver
• Net buying or selling by investors always has been the major driver behind price increases and decreases.
• Net investment demand could reached 175.1 million ounces last year.
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-250.0
-200.0
-150.0
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0.00
2.50
5.00
7.50
10.00
12.50
15.00
17.50
20.00
22.50
25.00
Million Ounces $/Ounce
Price
Net Changes in In-ventories (left scale)
Silver Market Balance
Silver Supply and Fabrication Demand Balance
• Fabrication demand rose from the early 1980s to 2000, but has dropped steadily since 2000.
• Supply lagged into the middle of the 1990s, but then started rising sharply.
• From the early 1990s through 2005 silver from investor holdings filled the gap between demand and supply.6
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10p
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900
200
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800
900
Supply
Fabrication Demand
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Silver Supply and Demand Balance
Estimated Total Silver Bullion Inventories
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10p
0
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1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Estimated Total Silver Bullion Inventories
Annual Total Supply
• Total supply is estimated to have been 813.0 million ounces last year.
• This year total supply could rise to 849.6 million ounces.
• Both mine production and secondary supply are expected to rise.
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
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0
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800
900
Secondary
Mine Production
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Net Exports from Tran. Econ.
Government Disposals
Annual Total Silver Supply
Estimated Silver Production Additions
2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120Million Ounces Million Ounces
Estimated Silver Production Additions
As of October 2009
Silver Mine Production
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10p
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
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60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Peru
Mexico
ChinaAustralia
Mine Production in Mexico, Peru, Australia, and China
Cash Cost of Silver
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
Cash Cost per Ounce Cash Cost per Ounce
Average Cash Cost
Annual Average Silver Price
Primary Silver Mines Cash Cost and Average Silver Price
3.8%
12.0%
14.1%
15.2%
15.4%
21.2%
58.3%
62.0%
62.5%
66.2%
68.8%
70.9%
74.4%
85.5%
86.9%
90.7%
99.2%
100.0%
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
Cash Cost per Ounce Cash Cost per Ounce
Average Silver Price (First 3Q2009) = $13.19
Average Cash Cost = $5.70
Primary Silver Mines Cash Cost
First three Quarters 2009
Silver Reserves and Reserve Base
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Reserves
Reserve Base
Silver Reserves and Reserve Base
Source: USGS, CPM Group
Annual Total Fabrication Demand
• Fabrication demand is projected to rise to 642.1 million ounces this year.
• Fabrication demand is estimated to have been 637.9 million ounces in 2009.
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
100
200
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Other Uses
Other Countries
Electronics
Jewelry and Silverware
Photography
Imports into the Transitional Economies
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Annual Total Demand
Super Conductors
Biocides
10p
Jewelry and Silverware Demand
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
U.S.
Europe
Other Countries
Japan
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Jewelry and Silverware Demand
10p
Photographic Demand
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
U.S.
Japan
Europe
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Other Countries
Photographic Demand
10p
Electronics and Batteries
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10p
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
U.S.
Europe
Million Ounces Million Ounces
Other Countries
Japan
Electronics and Batteries
10p
Strong Investor Interest in Silver
Note: CEF-Central Fund of Canada traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. SLV-iShares Silver Trust traded on the American Stock Exchange. ZKB-Zurich Cantonal traded on the Swiss Exchange. ETF-ETF Securities traded on the London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and Australian Securities Exchange. Data as of 15 January 2010.
2002
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2004
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2006
2007
2008
2009
0
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100
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350
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500
0
50
100
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300
350
400
450
500
ETF Australia
Series5
ZKB
ETF
SLV
CEF
Million
Ounces
MM Ozs
Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Silver Holdings
MM Ozs
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,500,000.0
0.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,500,000.0
U.S. Mint Silver Coin Sales
Ozs Ozs
Platinum Group Metals
Platinum Prices
60616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708090
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200$/Ounce
09
$/Ounce
Platinum Price 1960- Present
Monthly, Through February 2010
00 00 01 01 02 02 03 04 04 05 05 06 07 07 08 08 09 100
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500$/Ounce $/Ounce
Platinum Price 2000- Present
Weekly, Through 5 March 2010
Platinum Supply and Fabrication Demand Balance
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
2010p
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Demand
Supply
Thousand Ounces Thousand Ounces
Platinum Supply and Demand Balance
Platinum ETF Holdings
2007 2008 2009 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
PPLT - NYSE Platinum ZKB PHPT -LSE
Thousand Ounces
Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Platinum Holdings
Thousand Ounces
Palladium Prices
68697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990001020304050607080910$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$/Ounce $/Ounce
Palladium Price 1968-PresentMonthly, Through February 2010
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
$/Ounce $/Ounce
Palladium Price 2000-Present
Weekly Data, Through 5 March 2010
Palladium Supply and Fabrication Demand Balance
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010p
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Thousand Ounces
Supply
Thousand Ounces
Demand
Palladium Supply and Demand Balance
Palladium ETF Holdings
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
PALL-NYSE Palladium ZKB PHPD -LSE
Thousand Ounces
Exchange Traded Funds' Physical Palladium Holdings
Thousand Ounces
Gold and Silver ETF Holdings: U.S. Market Share
Gold ETF Holdings United States : 70.1%
Gold ETF Holdings United States : 68%
Gold ETF Holdings Rest of World: 32%
GOLD
Silver ETF Holdings United States : 68%
Silver ETF Holdings Rest of World: 32%
SILVER
Global Vehicle Sales
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09e 10p -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Thousand Vehicles Thousand Vehicles
Global Vehicle Sales
Precious Metals Yearbook launches
Gold Yearbook 27 April Silver Yearbook 11 May Platinum Group Metals Yearbook 22 June
Gold Yearbook Released on 27 April
CPM Group will be releasing the CPM Gold Yearbook 2010 on 27 April.
To obtain more information contact Adam Crown at 212.785.8320 or via e-mail at [email protected]
Thank You.
Jeffrey M. ChristianManaging [email protected]
30 Broad Street | 37th FloorNew York, NY 10004www.cpmgroup.com
