Precision GuessworkPrecision GuessworkA History of Draft Value in Major League Soccer

By Howard Hamilton

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What is a MLS draft pick worth?

50% never appear in league50% never appear in league50% out of MLS within 4 years50% out of MLS within 4 years

55% don't achieve expected 55% don't achieve expected career value for their teamscareer value for their teams

If you knew what a draft pick is worth, what would you do with it?

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Talk Outline● The Draft in Context● How do we value a

draft pick?● How have draft

values evolved?● Which draft picks

stand out?● Which clubs stand

out in the Draft?

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MLS Player Data Set

Biographical Data

Initial AcquisitionData

FinancialData

(2007-2015)

PerformanceData

Player Name(s)Date of BirthNationality

Default Position(s)

Acquisition YearAcquiring TeamAcquisition Path

Draft Path:Draft Type

RoundSelection NumberGeneration Adidas

(N=1813)

Contract YearContracting TeamCompensation:

BaseGuaranteed

MinutesAppearancesSubstitutions

Yellow/Red CardsField Player-specificGoalkeeper-specific

All players acquired by Major League Soccer between 1996-2016 (N=3250 players)

Data Sources: MLS Players Union (Financial Data), ENB Sports Soccer Player Database (Performance Data), Major League Soccer (Acquisition Data)

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Analysis OverviewNormalization of Draft Position

α=k−1N−1

α :[1,N ]→[0,1]

Survival Analysis

S(t ij)=Pr [T i> j ]Event: Final exit from Major League SoccerCensored Observations: Active MLS players

All Players Drafted Between 1996-2015

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Draft Declining In Influence – But Still Important

Golden Age of the

Drafted Player

Current Reality of the

Drafted Player

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Contribution of Draftees to Goals Scored in MLS

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Contribution of Draftees to Goal Assists in MLS

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Contribution of Draftees to Clean Sheets in MLS

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Draft Mortality

48% of draftees never appear!

Year 3 or Bust!

What percentage of draftees never appear in MLS?

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Draft Mortality of MLS Clubs

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Draft Classes Have Short Half-Lives

Median tenure of MLS draft class: 3.68 years

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Club Draft Classes' Are Even Shorter!

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Draft Position Explains Expected Tenure

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Only Early Draft Picks Can Expect 100-Game MLS Careers

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Given this environment for drafted players,what is a draft pick worth?

40% of all players40% of all players20% of incoming players20% of incoming players50% never play in league50% never play in league

3.5 years with drafting team3.5 years with drafting team

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Valuing MLS Draft Picks

Player Value Expression Player Value Scope

Time Horizon

Minutes

Minutes + goals + assists(Field players)

Minutes + goals allowed + clean sheets(Goalkeepers)

Average

Maximum

Career

Cumulative to previous year

Up to N years before previous year

V=√ ( MMmax

)2

+( GGmax

)2

+( AAmax

)2

3, field players

V=√ ( MMmax

)2

+(1− GA

GA ,max)2

+( SSmax

)2

3, goalkeepers

All College/SuperDraft Selections Between 1997-2013

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Draft Pick Valuation ModelsTraining Data

Career value of drafted playerCareer value of drafted player up to current year

Cumulative value of drafted player while playing for drafting club up to current year

Omniscient Model

Present Model

Club Model

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Evaluating MLS Draft Picks● Create draft value curve by local regression → V()● Value differential: difference between expected and actual

career values

R= Δ eα ,Δ>0Δ e1−α ,Δ<0

Δ=∑ V p−V (α)

Draft Performance Rating

Value Differential Scaled by Draft Position

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Draft Pick Value ModelOmniscient, Infinite Horizon

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Draft Pick Value ModelOmniscient, Limited Horizon

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2009 Draft Pick Value ModelCurrent, Limited Horizon

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2009 MLS SuperDraft Value CardPick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value

1 100 16 34.7 31 31.9 46 14.9

2 94.5 17 33.2 32 31.1 47 13.8

3 89.1 18 32.3 33 30.0 48 12.7

4 83.8 19 31.8 34 28.7 49 11.6

5 81.2 20 31.6 35 27.9 50 10.9

6 75.2 21 31.4 36 26.3 51 9.7

7 71.7 22 31.4 37 25.4 52 9.0

8 66.5 23 31.4 38 24.0 53 7.9

9 61.4 24 31.7 39 22.6 54 6.8

10 58.3 25 31.9 40 21.8 55 6.1

11 52.9 26 32.3 41 20.4 56 4.8

12 50.0 27 32.6 42 19.7 57 4.3

13 45.5 28 32.8 43 18.5 58 3.3

14 41.0 29 32.8 44 17.3 59 2.2

15 36.9 30 32.5 45 16.1 60 1.1

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2013 Draft Pick Value ModelCurrent, Limited Horizon

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2013 MLS SuperDraft Value CardPick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value

1 100 11 20.8 21 0.7 31 0.5

2 91.6 12 14.8 22 0.7 32 0.4

3 83.2 13 10.1 23 0.7 33 0.3

4 75.0 14 7.0 24 0.7 34 0.2

5 66.8 15 4.8 25 0.7 35 0.1

6 58.8 16 3.3 26 0.7 36 0

7 50.9 17 2.3 27 0.7 37 0

8 43.2 18 1.7 28 0.6 38 0

9 35.7 19 1.2 29 0.6

10 28.2 20 0.9 30 0.5

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Relative Draft ValueLack of Time Horizon Overvalues Late Draft Picks

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Expected Draft ValueOmniscient Model Yields Optimistic Estimates

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Expected Draft ValueDrafting Clubs Don't See Most of Drafted Player Value

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Early Draft Picks' Competition: Other Domestic Signings

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Expected Salary Cost of SuperDraft Picks

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Draft Performance Extremes:Present Draft Valuation Model

Year Pick Player Position Club1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy

2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City

2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire

2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

Year Pick Player Position Club1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes

2005 1 Nik Besagno M Real Salt Lake

1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny

2011 1 Omar Salgado F Vancouver Whitecaps

Draft Busts

Draft Gems

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Draft Performance Extremes:Club Draft Valuation Model

Year Pick Player Position Club1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy

2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City

2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire

2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

Year Pick Player Position Club1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes

2001 1 Chris Carrieri F San Jose Earthquakes

1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny

1999 1 Jason Moore M DC United

Draft Busts

Draft Gems

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Draft Performance Extremes:Defenders (Present Model)

Year Pick Player Club2004 60 Jeff Parke New York Red Bulls

1998 30 Joe Franchino LA Galaxy

2005 35 Gonzalo Segares Chicago Fire

1998 8 Mike Petke MetroStars

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

Year Pick Player Club1998 3 Ben Parry San Jose Earthquakes

2000 9 John Wilson Sporting Kansas City

1999 10 Tony Soto LA Galaxy

1999 9 Matt Chulis Columbus Crew

Draft Busts

Draft Gems

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Draft Performance Extremes:Forwards (Present Model)

Year Pick Player Club2002 50 Davy Arnaud Sporting Kansas City

1998 9 Jeff Cunningham Columbus Crew

2004 53 Alan Gordon LA Galaxy

2005 29 Chris Rolfe Chicago Fire

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

Year Pick Player Club2011 1 Omar Salgado Vancouver Whitecaps

1999 7 John Wolyniec MetroStars

1999 8 Andrew Mittendorf Colorado Rapids

2007 8 Jerson Monteiro Chicago Fire

Draft Busts

Draft Gems

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Draft Performance Extremes:Goalkeepers (Present Model)

Year Pick Player Club1997 29 Kevin Hartman LA Galaxy

1998 26 Matt Reis LA Galaxy

2000 35 Nick Rimando Miami Fusion FC

2002 23 Jon Busch Columbus Crew

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

Year Pick Player Club2008 8 Josh Lambo FC Dallas

2008 12 Dominic Cervi Chicago Fire

2002 22 Bryheem Hancock LA Galaxy

2002 24 Mike McGinty DC United

Draft Busts

Draft Gems

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Draft Performance Extremes:Midfielders (Present Model)

Year Pick Player Club2003 43 Jack Jewsbury Sporting Kansas City

1998 14 Carey Talley DC United

1998 13 Pablo Mastroeni Miami Fusion FC

2002 3 Brad Davis MetroStars

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

Year Pick Player Club2005 1 Nik Besagno Real Salt Lake

1997 2 Mike Fisher Tampa Bay Mutiny

2007 6 Nico Colaluca Colorado Rapids

2008 5 Ciaran O'Brien Colorado Rapids

Draft Busts

Draft Gems

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Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees Who Have Productive MLS Careers?

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

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Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees That Benefit Them?

MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013

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Middle Draft Selections Hard to Get Right

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An endangered species in a crowded player acquisition environment.

Low lifetime costsLow lifetime costs

Long time to high valueLong time to high valueLow value after Round 1Low value after Round 1

The MLS Draft

Passing on late rounds of MLS SuperDraft becomes understandable.

Thank You!Thank You!Soccermetrics Research, LLC

www.soccermetrics.net@soccermetrics

Howard H. Hamilton, Ph.D.