climateprediction.netPredicting 21st Century Climate
Sylvia Knight, Myles Allen, Charlotte Calnan, Peter Campbell, Jonathan Gray, June Haighton, John Harris, Jules Hoult, Andrew Hunt, Robert Lang, Angela Melamed, Hannah Pomroy, David Sang and Mary Whitehouse , …and about 100,000 other people worldwide!
• Introduction to the climateprediction.net project and how to join in
• Climateprediction.net in schools – teaching resources
Climateprediction.net is an ambitious new scientific experiment aiming to produce the most comprehensive probability based forecast of 21st Century climate ever
attempted.
The experiment should give policy makers a better scientific basis for
addressing one of the biggest potential global problems of the 21st
century.
climateprediction.net• The Goals:
– To harness the power of idle PCs to help quantify uncertainty in predictions of the 21st century climate.
– To improve public understanding of the nature of uncertainty in climate prediction.
• The Method:– Invite the public to download a full resolution, 3D climate
model and run it locally on their PC.– Use each PC to run a single member of a massive, perturbed
physics ensemble.– Provide visualization software and educational packages to
maintain interest and facilitate school participation etc.
Uncertainties in climate scenarios
How do we quantify the risk of this happening (again)?
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Excess mortality rates in early August 2003 indicate 22,000 - 35,000 heat-related deaths
Daily mortality in Baden-Württemberg
Was the hot summer of 2003 due to climate change?
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of a summer like 2003
By 2050, it could be that hot every other summer
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001
We can produce very detailed predictions of climate change with no idea of how reliable they
might be
2080 temperature change (K)
2080 precipitation change (%)
Source: Mat Collins, Hadley Centre
Sources of Uncertainty
Basic sources of uncertainty in climate forecasts:• Incomplete knowledge of the initial state of the system
Weather is chaotic, climate is not
Why the fact that Weather is Chaotic matterste
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• Climate is the average of the weather• On any particular day, the weather may be very different to the climate• The weather on one day is more likely to be similar to the day before than to be totally different• If you only looked at the weather of a couple of years, you might get a biased view of the climate• So, to get an accurate climate, you either need to run a model with the same atmospheric composition for a long period of time (hundreds or thousands or years), or you need to run many models with different initial conditions many times for a shorter period.
Sources of Uncertainty
Basic sources of uncertainty in climate forecasts:• Incomplete knowledge of the initial state of the system • Uncertainty in future forcings
Sources of Uncertainty
Basic sources of uncertainty in climate forecasts:• Incomplete knowledge of the initial state of the system • Uncertainty in future forcings• Uncertain models - poor/incomplete representation of the
physical processes that govern the climate
Parameters perturbed• Critical Relative Humidity (RHcrit)
- related to the cloud cover distribution in a grid box.• Accretion constant (CT)
- related to growth of rain droplets and lifetime of clouds.• Condensation nuclei concentration (CW)
- affects water holding capacity and lifetime of clouds.• Ice fall velocity (VF1)
10.5 – 2.0VF15x10-52x10-5 – 5x10-4CW - sea2x10-41x10-4 – 2x10-3CW - land1x10-45x10-5 - 4x10-4CT0.70.5 – 0.95 (0.6 – 0.9)RHcrit“Standard” valuesRange:Parameter:
Climate Sensitivity
Each Model is Unique
Standard model set-up
Perturbedphysics
ensemble
Initialconditionensemble
Boundary Conditions (forcing)
ensemble Unique m
odel
This many simulations cannot be achieved using the supercomputers traditionally available to climate scientists. So, climateprediction.net tried a new approach –asking members of the public to donate spare time on their home, school and
work computers.
Experiment DesignExptExpt 1: GCM with 1: GCM with thermodynamic oceanthermodynamic ocean. .
Aim: To identify parameter combinations which have little effectAim: To identify parameter combinations which have little effect on the on the mean climate but a large effect on climate sensitivity.mean climate but a large effect on climate sensitivity.Evaluate perturbations to atmosphere/ocean fluxes.Evaluate perturbations to atmosphere/ocean fluxes.
15 yr spin-up 15 yr, base case CO2
15 yr, 2 x CO2
Derived fluxes
Diagnostics from final 8 yrs.
Calibration
Control
Double CO2
ExptExpt 2: 2: Fully coupled modelFully coupled model. . Distribute preDistribute pre--packaged simulations of 1920 packaged simulations of 1920 --2080.2080.Compare 1920 Compare 1920 -- 2080 with observations.2080 with observations.Make a forecast using 2000Make a forecast using 2000--2080.2080.
Since September 2003, 150,000 participants in 142 countries have completed 150,000 45 -year GCM runscomputed 11 million model years donated 9,000 years of computing time
Experiment 1
The most powerful computer in the world?
First Results - does this method work?
•1000 bigger ensemble than has ever been achieved so far
•Sampled more extreme sensitivities than have ever been seen before
Experiment 1
BBC Climate Change Experiment
http://bbc.cpdn.org
Experiment 2
How to Participate1. Participants download their own unique model at
bbc.cpdn.org.
2. The download, consists of the model as well as a visualisationpackage.
3. The model runs in the background whenever the computer is switched on, and takes a minimum of 3 months, depending on computer specification.
4. While the model is running, participants are able to watch the climate develop in their own unique simulation of the world.
5. The model returns data to climateprediction.net scientists.
6. A summary of the results is displayed on the project web pages
Solar Energy
Greenhouse Gases
Very first results…
Since 14/2/06, 125,000 people in 152 countries93,000 in the U.K.324 in Sweden!
Watch your unique modelled climate change over hours, days, weeks…
Temperature 2000 - 2100
Will the results of experiment 3 look like this made up figure?
With funding from the Nuffield Foundation
GeographyScienceMaths
climateprediction.net in Schools
Schools Materials• 14 +• U.K. Syllabus specific materials• Easy to use for teachers• Encourage schools to join the experiment• Unique, distinct and genuinely useful• Climate, Climate change, Models and Prediction• Mainly based on the first experiment
Student Visualisation Interface
Warm frontWarm front
Good day tostay in bed
Treacherousdriving
conditions
11th-18th December 1828, London
14+Variety of simple climate models – involving dice, excel, bottles of water,
calculators..
Discussion excercises, role playing
Investigating weather and climate
Analysis of numbers, data sets..
Exploring climateprediction.net results
The Earth
incomingsolar radiation
outgoingradiation
http://www.climateprediction.net/schools
Simple Climate Model
∆T=(incoming radiation-σT4) x t % C
More Advanced Climate Change Model
Global temperature relative to 1961-90 average
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Year
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The Day After Tomorrow –scientific truth, political
agenda or just a disaster movie?
- Background information- Film Reviews- Surveys of public opinion
Chaos Theory
• Participate in a cutting-edge scientific experiment, using the Met Office’s state-of-the-art forecasting model on school and home computers
• Unique resource for project work and extension activities in geography, science, geography, ICT, maths….• Practical exploration of models, climate, climate prediction and climate change
• Ideal opportunity to embed ICT in teaching
The materials do not all rely on participation in the experiment
• Free to download, translate, develop…
www.begbroke.ox.ac.uk/climatebasics
”Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get”
Climate Challenge GameClimate Challenge is a fun and engaging simulation game designed to inform players about climate concerns and to engage them in understanding how a country’s decisions on resources can affect the climate
Can you tackle the challenges of global climate change?
Schools Competition • Sweden, UK and New Zealand• Run climate models on school or students’
home computers, to produce a forecast for each other’s countries
Sweden for the U.K.U.K. for New Zealand
New Zealand for Sweden• Come together by video conference in July
to share results
Important things to knowhttp://www.climateprediction.net/schools/NZ_SW_UK.php
• Need 1 teacher and about 10 students from the same school to take part – commitment to spend at least 4, 1 hour sessions looking at the project
• Need to run the BBC Climate Change Experiment on at least 1, preferably more computers at school or at home, using the same email address to register, starting NOW
• Contact me [email protected] if you want to take part
This talk will be available at http://www.climateprediction.net/science/pubs/Sweden_teachers_2006.pdf
if you’d like to look at anything again!
