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Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Areas-
Study from central Switzeland
D. Tobler, P. Mani, N. Hählen
Foro International Glaciares, HuarazJuly 1th – 4th, 2013
Rockfall
Ritzlihorn
Debris-Fan
Precipitation Temperature
Melting Permafrost
Aare River
Snow - Avalanches
2. Concept – Process Chain
3. Methods – Climate
Linsbauer et al. (in prep)
ΔT [
°C
]
+ 2.9 °C (2060)
+ 1.7 °C (2028)
Temperatur Grimsel Hospiz
1980-2009
2035 2060 2060(M3)
JJA 9.6 +1.6 +2.9 +4.2
SON 3.7 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0
# days T > 15 °C 5 14 27 34
Periode T > 15°C 2 5 6 10
CH2011 (2011)
3. Methods – Permafrost
Böckli (2012)Nötzli et al. (2012)
Time
Rela
tive R
ate
/ A
mount
Erosion Rate Amount of Sediment
3. Methods – Process Models
PROCESS MODELS
SLIDISP+
Liener (2000)Riner (2009)
Tobler et al. (2011)
ROFMOD 3D
Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)
Scheuner and McArdell (2007)
RAMMSDebris Flow
- Where are the critical sections along
the mountain pass road?
- Rough estimation of the amount of
bedload depostion possible ?
- Definition of possible protection
measures ?
5. Conclusions / Outlook
Key to Success
- Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains
- Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps
- Knowing existing uncertainties
5. Conclusions / Outlook