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Predicting The Future of LIFE in JapanMichael Parsons, Consulting Senior Practice Director, Japan

The following is intended to outline our general

product direction. It is intended for information

purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any

contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any

material, code, or functionality, and should not be

relied upon in making purchasing decisions.

The development, release, and timing of any

features or functionality described for Oracle‟s

products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

Safe Harbor Statement

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A complex Subject

4

Attribution-Flicker Valerie Everett

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„Predictions are always difficult …especially when they‟re about the future.‟

Niels Bohr

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$186

billion cost

growth from

poor estimating of

85 MDAPs

5,314 trips

into space

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Reducing the future risk

Oracle 4sight

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Oracle 4sight Mesh

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Cost estimating categories worth

over $10 billion excluded or under

reported

Assumptions over

optimisticand poorly document

10

Improve accuracy with a

common, well documented and

analyzed Cost Breakdown

Structure

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“The lack of reliable technical

source data hampers cost

estimating.”

GAO, Space Acquisitions: DOD Needs to Take More Action to

Address Unrealistic Initial Cost Estimates of Space Systems,

GAO-07-96

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F-111 entered service 1960`s

required 45 MMH/FH

F-18 entered

service 1980`s

required 25MMH/FH

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Flickr :Bill Keaggy

Improve accuracy with

accumulated, normalized and

managed data

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“…cost-estimating resources are

inadequate to do a good job of

accurately predicting costs.”

GAO-07-96 DOD Needs to Take More Action to Address Unrealistic Initial

Cost Estimates of Space Systems

15

75% of learning

is informal

Knowledge

Collaborationis essentialPhoto by Lars Ploughman Flickr

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Flickr jfravel

Improve accuracy with

collaborative working and

information shareing

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“…the main limitation is a lack of

reliable and consistent management

information …”

UK MoD - The Defence Strategy for Acquisition Reform

February 2010

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Data

Information

Knowledge

Accumulation

Analysis

Accuracy

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Oracle 4sight Mesh

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Using the

past and

present

to

foresee the

future

Oracle 4sight