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PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE USE OF THE DINAMICAL SEASONALPREDICTIONS IN THE UPSTREAM OF THE TONE RIVER BASIN FOR
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
2436587:9 1 ;=<?>A@CB 2 ;EDGFIH:J 3
Tosiyuki NAKAEGAWA, Tamaki YASUDA, and Yuhei TAKAYA
1 K�L�MON�P (��
) Q�RS�T�U6VXW�S�TZY ( [ 305–0052 \^]`_�a�b�c 1–1)2 dZL�MON�P ( e � ) Q�RS�T�U6VXW�S�TZY ( [ 305–0052 \^]`_�a�b�c 1–1)
3 dZL�M � P ( e � ) QZRgfih�jZk�lCmon�prq ( [ 100–8122 sZtZuwvyx^zy{}|�~g� 1–3–4)
This study preliminarily examines potential use of the dynamical seasonal prediction with an atmosphere–oceancoupled model for the drought management in the upstream of the Tone River basin. First, linkage between waterstorage in reservoirs for August and six accumulated-value predictors as precursor is revealed based on the observationdata with non-parametric correlation test. In addition, correlation between drought and El Nino and Southern Oscil-lation phenomena years is examined to be not significant. The ensemble mean of the dynamical seasonal predictionoutputs satisfactorily captures the drought years. This result suggests that the dynamical seasonal prediction may pro-vide significant information about improvement in the cost-effectiveness of the the weather modification operations topractitioners.
Key Words: dynamical seasonal prediction, drought management, the Tone River basin, ENSO,
weather modification
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