Preliminary Summary Report of Hurricane Katrina Deceased Victim Recovery Locations in Louisiana Ezra Boyd Graduate Research Assistant LSU Hurricane Public Health Center [email protected]Note : The information contained in this preliminary report remains subject to future revision. Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the Mississippi-Louisiana state line on Monday, August 28, 2005. The massive storm surge stretched from La Place, La to Pensacola, Fl, inundating an estimated 300 miles of coast. While the levees that protect New Orleans were not overtopped, multiple failures in the federally constructed hurricane protection system led to catastrophic flooding there. 80% percent of Orleans parish and 99% of St. Bernard parish was inundated by water that flowed through breeched floodwalls and eroded earthen levees. This flood necessitated the complete evacuation of New Orleans, left a half-million people homeless, and took the lives of approximately 1,500 Louisiana residents. However, the true loss-of-life of this disaster remains uncertain. One year later, the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH) reports nearly 130 missing and the New Orleans Fire Department continues to recover the remains of deceased victims from the rubble of destroyed houses. This report summarizes what is currently known about the deceased. Current Report of Deceased and Missing The State Medical Examiner, Dr. Louis Cataldie, has spearheaded DHH’s effort to reunite the living and recover and identify the deceased. Initially, the Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team (DMORT) and local parish coroners worked in conjunction with the State Medical Examiner’s office. However, on March 1, 2006 DMORT ceased operation and closed their $17 million dollar morgue and identification center less than four months after it was opened. Currently, the DHH Family Assistance Center handles reports of missing persons, while victim identification has returned to the parish coroners. DHH provides the official figures on dead and missing on their “Katrina Missing” website (http://www.dhh.louisiana.gov/offices/page.asp?ID=192&Detail=5248). As of
Transcript
Preliminary Summary Report of Hurricane Katrina Deceased Victim Recovery Locations in Louisiana
Note: The information contained in this preliminary report remains subject to future revision.
Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the Mississippi-Louisiana state line on Monday, August 28, 2005. The massive storm surge stretched from La Place, La to Pensacola, Fl, inundating an estimated 300 miles of coast. While the levees that protect New Orleans were not overtopped, multiple failures in the federally constructed hurricane protection system led to catastrophic flooding there. 80% percent of Orleans parish and 99% of St. Bernard parish was inundated by water that flowed through breeched floodwalls and eroded earthen levees. This flood necessitated the complete evacuation of New Orleans, left a half-million people homeless, and took the lives of approximately 1,500 Louisiana residents. However, the true loss-of-life of this disaster remains uncertain. One year later, the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH) reports nearly 130 missing and the New Orleans Fire Department continues to recover the remains of deceased victims from the rubble of destroyed houses. This report summarizes what is currently known about the deceased.
Current Report of Deceased and Missing
The State Medical Examiner, Dr. Louis Cataldie, has spearheaded DHH’s effort to reunite the living and recover and identify the deceased. Initially, the Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team (DMORT) and local parish coroners worked in conjunction with the State Medical Examiner’s office. However, on March 1, 2006 DMORT ceased operation and closed their $17 million dollar morgue and identification center less than four months after it was opened. Currently, the DHH Family Assistance Center handles reports of missing persons, while victim identification has returned to the parish coroners.
DHH provides the official figures on dead and missing on their “Katrina Missing” website (http://www.dhh.louisiana.gov/offices/page.asp?ID=192&Detail=5248). As of
August 2, 2006 this site listed 1,464 deceased victims and notes that the cases of 135 missing have been turned over to law enforcement. Of the confirmed dead, 1,118 victims perished within Louisiana, while 346 victims perished outside of the state of Louisiana. Of the 1,118 in state deaths, 875 victims were recovered and examined by the Medical Examiner’s Office. The remaining victims were handled by parish coroners: 20 by Orleans parish coroner and 223 by other parish coroners. On August 1, the cases of 135 people who remain listed as missing were turned over to local law enforcement agencies. At least five persons have been located alive.
Recovery Locations Dataset
In mid-October, the LSU Hurricane Center (HC) established a collaborative effort with the State Medical Examiner’s office. As part of this collaboration, DHH provided the HC with data on the recovery locations for the deceased victims. While continuously updated, a version of the dataset obtained on April 21, 2006 lists the recovery locations of 872 victims through out the State of Louisiana. This corresponds to 79% of the total number of victims recovered within the State. Of the 872 victims listed in the dataset, 786 have been geocoded. This corresponds to 72% of the victims recovered within the state.
The dataset includes the following information: Date of Recovery, Type of Facility, Facility Name, Street Address, Nearest Cross Street, City, State, Zip, Parish, Comments, Transported By, and Scene. Each entry in the dataset describes the recovery of one victim. In some cases, multiple victims are recovered from a location. This current dataset is based on “Receipts of Remains” provided to DHH by DMORT and it replaces an early dataset provided by Kenyon International Emergency Services that has been deemed “corrupt” by the State Medical Examiner’s office.
The dataset indicates that most victims were recovered from Orleans parish and most victims were recovered from residences. Of the 850 recoveries for which a parish is listed, 580 list Orleans parish, followed by 108 in St. Bernard parish. 51 victims were recovered from East Baton Rouge parish and 26 from Jefferson parish. The dataset lists a structure type for 857 victims. Of these, 414 were recovered from residences, 159 from hospitals and other health care facilities, 62 from nursing homes, 57 from street locations, 19 from the Convention Center, and 8 from the Superdome.
The following tables summarize the recovery locations dataset and are based solely on the information provided in the dataset, while the appendix provides various maps depicting recovery locations and aggregate results.
Tables 1 & 2: Total number of victims recovered per City and per Parish as listed on the dataset.
City TotalALEXANDRIA 2ARABI 15BASTROP 2BATON ROUGE 52CHALMETTE 41CLINTON 1GONZALES 3HARVEY 9HOUMA 9KENNER 15LAFAYETTE 12LUTCHER 1MERAUX 9METAIRIE 2NEW ORLEANS 573OPELOUSAS 1PLAQUEMINE 1SAINT BERNARD 32UNKNOWN 53VIOLET 17Grand Total 850
Parish TotalASCENSION 3EAST BATON ROUGE 51EAST FELICIANA 1IBERVILLE 1JEFFERSON 26LAFAYETTE 12MOREHOUSE 2ORLEANS 580RAPIDES 2ST JAMES 1ST LANDRY 1ST. BERNARD 108TERREBONNE 9UNKNOWN 53Grand Total 850
Table 3: Total number of victims recovered per structure type as listed on the dataset.
Structure Type TotalAIRPORT (*) 15BUSINESS 5CANAL 2CHURCH 3CONVENTION CENTER 19CORONER OFFICE 32EOC 6FUNERAL HOME 11HEALTH CARE 3HOSPICE 8HOSPITAL 139HOSPITAL 2HOSPITALIERE 3LAKE 1MEDICAL CENTER 4MORGUE 2NURSING HOME 62PARKING GARAGE 1PARKING LOT 2RESIDENCE 414SCHOOL 5SHERIFFS OFFICE 1STREET 57SUPERDOME 8TEMP MEDICAL CLINIC 1UNKNOWN 51Grand Total 857
* The Louis Armstrong International Airport on the Western Edge of Greater New Orleans served as a field hospital and shelter during the post-storm emergency evacuation.
As noted, 786 of the recovery locations have been geocoded. The tables below were derived by merging the recovery locations shapefiles with other shapefiles. Parish shapefiles was obtained from the LA GIS Data CD, while the Greater New Orleans Data Center provided a Orleans Parish Neighborhood shapefile. Note that there are minor discrepancies with the above table for recovers per parish.
Table 4: Victims recovered per parish as determined by overlaying the geocoded recovery locations with Census Tiger shapefile.
Parish TotalOrleans 566St. Bernard 111East Baton Rouge 51Jefferson 25Lafayette 12Terrebonne 9Ascension 3Morehouse 2Rapides 2East Feliciana 1Iberville 1Livingston 1St. James 1St. Landry 1Grand Total 786
The New Orleans Community Data Center provided shapefiles for planning districts and neighborhoods. The two tables below only apply to Orleans parish.
Table 5: Total number of victims recovered per planning district as determined by overlaying the geocoded recovery locations with planning district shapefile.
Planning DistrictTotal
RecoveredAlgiers 3Central City/Garden District 76English Turn 0French Quarter/CBD 15Gentilly 82Lakeview 32Lower Ninth Ward/Holy Cross 77Marigny, Bywater, St. Claude, St. 45Mid-City 77New Orleans East 74New Orleans East Area 13Uptown/Carrollton 70Village de L'Est Area 2Grand Total 566
Table 6: Total number of victims recovered per neighborhood as determined by overlaying the geocoded recovery locations with neighborhood shapefile.
NeighborhoodTotal
Recovered NeighborhoodTotal
RecoveredLower Ninth Ward Neighborhood 72 Dixon 3Freret 43 French Quarter 3Mid-City Neighborhood 27 East Carrollton 2Touro 26 East Riverside 2West Lake Forest 26 Florida Development 2Little Woods 23 Gert Town 2Milneburg 23 Iberville Development 2Central City Neighborhood 21 Marlyville/Fountainebleau 2Lower Garden District Neighborhood 20 Navarre 2Lakeview Neighborhood 18 Village de l'est 2Seventh Ward 16 West Riverside 2Fillmore 14 Audubon 1Tulane/Gravier 14 B.W. Cooper 1St. Anthony 13 Black Pearl 1St. Roch 13 City Park 1Central Business District 12 Fischer Project 1St. Claude 12 Irish Channel 1Viavant/Venetian Isles 12 Lake Catherine 1Read Blvd East 10 Lakeshore/Lake Vista 1West End 10 Leonidas 1Dillard 9 Marigny 1Florida Area 9 Old Aurora 1Hollygrove 9 St. Bernard Area 1Pontchartrain Park 9 St. Thomas Development 1Gentilly Terrace 8 Whitney 1Broadmoor 6 Algiers Point 0Fairgrounds 6 Behrman 0Gentilly Woods 6 Desire Development 0Plum Orchard 6 Garden District 0Holy Cross 5 Lake Terrace & Oaks 0Milan 5 Lakewood 0Read Blvd West 5 McDonough 0Treme'/Lafitte 5 New Aurora/English Turn 0Bywater Neighborhood 4 Tall Timbers/Brechtel 0
Desire Area 4U.S. Naval Base Neighborhood 0
Pines Village 4 Uptown Neighborhood 0Bayou St. John 3 Grand Total 566
Causes and Circumstances
Unfortunately, very little can presently be said about the causes and circumstances of those who died during Hurricane Katrina. Operationally, DHH utilizes a broad definition of deceased individuals for whom they provided identification and other services: anyone from the affected parishes that died between August 28 and October 1 for which the cause of death is obviously not Katrina related. Only in a handful of cases, mostly those related to legal concerns, have autopsies been completed, and these results have not yet been made public.
In very rough terms, it appears that approximately one third of the fatalities were due to direct exposure with flood waters. Overlaying the recovery locations with a flood depth raster layer shows that approximately 590 victims were recovered from locations that flooded. However, approximately 90 of these victims were recovered from hospitals, multistory apartment buildings, or the second story of homes. For most of these victims, the death did not result from exposure to flood waters. These figures indicate that roughly 500 of the victims died as a result of direct exposure to the flood hazard. Presumably, drowning is the cause of death for a majority of these victims while trauma due to flood debris impact is a cause for some of them.
For the remaining two-thirds of the victims, the cause of death varies greatly, but the circumstance fall into one of two categories. For some victims, unmeet basic needs during the emergency phase, such as food, water, medicine, medical treatment and security, resulted in the death. For these victims, causes of death include starvation, dehydration, stroke, heart attack, and violence. For other victims, the circumstances created by long term displacement resulted in the death. Many of these deaths resulted most directly from accidents while others resulted from long term medical conditions. For these victims, the State Medical Examiner has determined that circumstances of displacement strongly influenced the conditions of the death. At this time, we do not have sufficient data to precisely determine totals for each category. Speaking in very rough terms, approximately 500 victims fit into each of the categories.
Recovery Locations and Levee Breeches
Proximity to a breech location influences basic flood hazard characteristics such as the rate of rise and flow velocity of the flood waters. In turn, these flood hazard characteristics influence the survivability of a person trapped in the flood waters. Since we do not yet have reliable data on these on these flood characteristics, buffer zones around the breach locations serves as a proxy. The rational is that the average flow velocity will be larger for a smaller buffer than for a larger buffer. At this point in the analysis, no real relationship is apparent in the result below.
Table 7: Victim recovery locations and proximity to breaches.
During the emergency phase, the LSU Hurricane Center provided support for State and Local efforts to protect the lives of those trapped in the flooded regions and at the various evacuation centers. As part of this effort, we were tasked to provide a real-time estimate of the number of expected flood fatalities. Early efforts suffered from a lack of reliable flood data and resulted in the controversial estimate of 10,000-20,000. However, by September 29, a more reliable estimate of 1500-3000 was made available.
Estimating the number of fatalities during a flood event requires three key pieces of information. First, we need to know the number of people exposed to the flood. In practical terms, this is the number of residents living inside the flooded region minus the number that evacuate and the number that adequately shelter-in-place. Second, we need to know the distribution of the flood depths. Both of these variables vary geographically, so GIS is an important tool in flood fatality estimation. Finally, using a flood fatality function (also termed a dose-response relationship,) we estimate the flood fatality rate based on the depth of water. Multiplying the flood fatality rate by the exposed population gives an estimate of the number of flood fatalities.
For better or worse, Hurricane Katrina provided an initial test of this approach to flood fatality modeling and the model passed the test. Once accurate flood data was included in the analysis, the model produced results that are accurate to the order-of-magnitude. Naturally, given the complexity of the processes involved (such as the effects of search and rescue,) order-of-magnitude accuracy is a reasonable expectation. As this research moves forward, the accuracy of the model will improve and the flood fatality model will prove an indispensable tool as America prepares for the impacts of global sea level rise and increased hurricane activity. Next time a major American city floods, the flood fatality model will do more than estimate the total number. It will help response officials save lives by identifying areas of greatest potential loss-of-life.
Table 8: Estimated number of flood fatalities from September 29, 2006.
The tragedy in New Orleans left us with a dataset that we hope will help minimize the number of lives lost during future hurricanes and flood disasters. Research on the causes and circumstances of Katrina related fatalities in Louisiana aims to fulfill this goal. However, one year after the disaster, a number of important uncertainties remain:
1) The dataset presented here represents the 79% of the victims whose bodies were recovered and examined as part of the joint state-federal effort. We know that a number of victims were processed by parish coroners or out-of-state and their recovery information is not included in this dataset. Obtaining this data has proven to be a challenge.
2) The DHH dataset includes a number of “unknowns” and erroneous entries. For these victims, determining the location of death is difficult or impossible.
3) We will never have medically determined cause-of-death data on the majority of the victims.
Regardless of these uncertainties, a number of important results are still possible:
1) How do the observed patterns in the victim recovery locations relate to what we know about the flood hazard characteristics?
2) How do the observed patterns in the victim recovery locations relate to the underlying social-demographic characteristics of the exposed population?
The questions will be addressed in future research using this dataset.
Appendix: Maps of Victim Recovery Locations
The DHH dataset consists of a list of addresses, each listing corresponding to the recovery of one victim. Using ArcMap 9.0 and Street Maps USA, this list of addresses was geocoded to produce a point shapefile. Around 100 recovery locations had to be geocoded manually, because the provided information, for example “victim recovered from a field next the Almonaster Bridge,” was not suitable for the software. Some of the maps below depict just the points, while others aggregate the points using various polygon shapefiles. Note that in the maps below, some points denote multiple recoveries and some locations remain subject to uncertainty.
Figure 1: Locations of victims throughout the State of Louisiana.
Figure 2: Locations of victims throughout metropolitan New Orleans.
Figure 3: Deceased victims map zoomed on the flooded areas.
Figure 4: Victim Recovery locations and the levee system. Note that only one flood death in Louisiana occurred outside of the levee system.
Figure 5: Victim recovery locations, levees, and levee breaches. The preliminary levee breach shapefile provided by Hampton Peele and DeWitt Braud.
Figure 6: Total victims recovered per parish.
Figure 7: Total victims recovered per zip code.
Figure 8: Total victims recovered per New Orleans neighborhood. Neighborhood shapefile provided by the Greater New Orleans Data Center.
Figure 9: Total victims recovered per Census Blockgroup.
