PRES-Intelligence Report 2019-2025 (June 2020) · 2020-06-08 · INTELLIGENCE REPORT: BUSINESS...

INTELLIGENCE REPORT:

BUSINESS SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL

CATALYTIC PROCESS INDUSTRIES

2019-2025

STUDY PRESENTATION

(Completed May 2020)

The Eighteenth Biennial Edition

THE CATALYST GROUP RESOURCES, INC. ● Gwynedd Office Park ● P.O. Box 680 ● Spring House, PA 19477 – USA –Phone: +1-215-628-4447 ● Fax: +1-215-628-2267 ● www.catalystgrp.com ● [email protected]

INTELLIGENCE REPORT BUSINESS SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL CATALYTIC

PROCESS INDUSTRIES 2019-2025

…Leading-edge Analyses and Guidance for Opportunity Identification and Strategic Investment…

Clients in the catalyst and catalytic process industries are facing unprecedented times! The current “medical crisis” from COVID-19 is being followed by a “financial crisis” in which TCGR anticipates a U-shaped recession lasting to at least the 4QTR, 2020 and perhaps into the 1st QTR 2021. The net result of the global pandemic, the oil price/demand crisis, and the recent US-China trade disputes is a level of uncertainty not seen in generations. Nonetheless, the catalyst and licensing industries are resilient and responsive, continuing to serve a breadth of dynamic and high value-added applications. In this report, between 2019-2025, the overall industry is forecast to grow at +2.8% annually, with some segments flat or declining (e.g., liquid fuels) while others grow more substantially (e.g., syngas-derived chemicals). As it has in the past, catalysis will drive the progress and innovation across society, producing over $15 trillion annually, from gasoline to aspirin. It is therefore of vital strategic importance to your business development, opportunity identification and planning for success.

TCGR has completed the 18th edition of our biennial update, “The Intelligence Report: Business Shifts in the Global Catalytic Process Industries, 2019-2025.” Considered the industry “gold standard,” TCGR’s report goes beyond statistics and benchmarks to provide competitive insight and analysis vital to end users in the refining, petrochemical/chemical, polymer, specialty/fine chemicals and environmental markets. This edition, completed in May 2020, builds on this tradition, as we have since the first biennial report was completed back in 1986! Several features characterize our outlook: for the first time in decades, the chemicals/petrochemicals sector is set to lead growth, at 4.2%/yr through 2025. It outpaces the polymerization sector at 3.5%/yr and the refining sector at 3.1%/yr, with the environmental sector lagging at 1.4%/yr. Chemicals/petrochemicals benefit from the “oil-to-chemicals” movement while refining suffers from reduced transportation fuel demand. Polymers continue to grow in value-added roles (but less so in packaging, where recycling has an impact) and environmental is restricted by the penetration of EVs, among other factors.

Among the most significant events noted for the industry over the forecast period to 2025 are:

The refining industry has been triply impacted by COVID-19. With workplace lockdowns, the demand for transportation fuels plunged and oil prices/margins contracted, further compounded by global automotive industry struggles in the shorter term. We forecast automobile sales will not reach 2018 levels again until 2022/23, softening demand for mobile autocatalysts as well as fuels (depending upon region).

The chemicals industry will fare much better, although growth in different segments will be uneven, driving refiners towards more chemicals/petrochemicals production. Bright spots will be syngas, as the demand for hydrogen will be very strong; others will be more spotty.

Despite the surge in the interest of recycling of plastics in a circular economy, and robustly so in PET and styrenics, the solutions needed for mixed polyolefins that are economic (besides mechanical recycling) are more complicated and will take several years to be optimized. During the interim, plastics will continue to be a growth segment.

The environmental stationary pollution control market will continue to grow globally. The dip in mobile automotive demand will impact catalyst demand, but tighter regulations will increase the demand for combined particulate filters (DPFs) which will offset some of the challenges.

We anticipate further consolidation during this event-driven recession, which will likely be deeper than the fiscal-driven recession of 2008/09. Companies that can adapt, as well as innovate, will fare the best in the coming years. As always, TCGR’s 2020 edition of The Intelligence Report provides its clients with deep insight for planning and action.

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18th Biennial Edition

The future of competitiveness in the catalytic process industries in 2020 (and beyond) depends on difficult, yet critical, decisions related to technology position and market participation. The industry has yielded gains from strategic restructurings made back in 2008‐09, but focused and dedicated approaches in 2020 and beyond will be required for success. The following are key drivers as we proceed through the 2020‐2025 forecast period:

The nature and duration of the economic slowdown, whichbegan in early 2020, will determine the impacts on specificindustries/end uses

Some rationalization/consolidation is justified in catalystproduction/supply and process licensing. Key factors ‐ likedegree of integration, market share, and production costs ‐determine both targets and acquirers

The movement towards “oil‐to‐chemicals” (O‐t‐C) increasesand intensifies, with competitive implications for both leadersand laggards as well as those producing fuels vs. those intoaromatics/olefins

The utilization of abundant natural gas (NG) and natural gasliquids (NGLs) as fuels and feedstocks expand the advantageover less competitive sources of energy and olefins/aromatics(e.g., coal, naphtha, etc.)

The role to be played by Industry 4.0, the Industrial Internet ofThings (IIoT), and artificial intelligence (AI) in industryoperations and planning increases

Climate change impacts, including circularity andsustainability, increasingly affect catalyst industry applicationsand industry participants (see “Special Feature” section on thefollowing page)

The way that catalyst suppliers and process technology licensors address these changes, and which ones strategically position themselves for the future, are critical considerations addressed in the 2020 edition of The Intelligence Report. These are challenging times for all industry participants ‐ visionary thinking is required. TCGR injects some interesting dynamics for 2020 and beyond via this biennial edition!

The Catalyst Industry’s “Gold Standard”

The Intelligence Report deliverables, in study and slide formats, provide new business and technology perspectives, including:

Comprehensive, concise and detailed industrystatistics on catalyst volumes and values, includingforecasts

Producer‐ and user‐specific developments inproduction and technology, including alliances,ventures and acquisitions/divestitures

Covering the refining, petrochemical/chemical,polymer and environmental markets

Identification of new growth opportunities acrossthe value chain

Assessment of geographical, technological andcompetitive gaps

Analysis and recommendations leading to specificactionable items

The combined deliverables of a detailed statistical reference document, along with an (optional) “Exec Deck” of critical findings via PPT slides, TCGR’s 2020 edition of The Intelligence Report are invaluable for achieving technical, market, competitive and strategic advantage!

Back by Popular Demand in 2020!

In order to increase the report’s utility to senior management and executives, TCGR continues to offer a companion deliverable designed to complement the report contents, highlighting the key findings and making them more actionable. In a set of PowerPoint slides entitled, “Intelligence Report 2020 ‐ Exec Deck,” TCGR has extracted the critical statistical data as well as technical, market and competitive/strategic insights, and deliver a presentation‐style document. TCGR’s team of experts is then available to present these to subscriber audiences or they can be used to generate internal documents for strategic/competitive pursuits. The “Exec Deck”, and resultant Q&A during the presentation sessions, provides

additional subscriber‐specific value

The “Intelligence Report” has evolved from documenting technological and commercial progress

into a tool for identifying strategic business opportunities and providing major investment guidance…

The Intelligence Report: Business Shifts in the Global Catalytic Process Industries, 2019-2025

ORDER FORM AND SECRECY AGREEMENT _____ Please enter our order for the Intelligence Report: Business Shifts in the Global Catalytic Process Industries, 2019-2025 (completed May 2020). This includes two (2) printed copies of the report. The cost of the report is US$25,500 (“post-publication”).

_____ Please send _____ additional corporate copies @ US$250 each

_____ We would like a “PDF” version (Adobe Acrobat) of the report for use at our site (i.e., site-license) for an additional cost of US$1,000.

_____ Please enter our order for the “Intelligence Report 2020: Exec Deck” PowerPoint slide presentation for an additional US$5,500 (i.e., requires a concurrent subscription to report). This includes a 2-hour presentation by the TCGR report team, to be conducted via webinar with time for subscriber-specific Q&A (additional fees apply for on-site presentation).

In signing this order form, our company agrees to hold this report confidential and not make it available to subsidiaries unless a controlling interest of greater than 50% exists. Signature_________________________________________________________________Date_____________________ Name____________________________________________________Title______________________________________ Billing Address______________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Shipping Address (No P.O. Boxes) ______________________________________________________________________ City_________________________________________________ State/Country___________ Postal Code/Zip__________ Purchase Order No.______________________ Phone______________________________________________________ Fax____________________________________ E-mail____________________________________________

(Pennsylvania companies must furnish tax exempt number or be subject to state sales tax). This report and our study findings are sold for the exclusive use of the client companies and their employees only. No other use, duplication or publication of this report or any part contained herein, is permitted without the express written consent of The Catalyst Group Resources.

Special Feature Section In order to add value/perspective(s) beyond industry statistics and commentary, a Special Feature section (Section VII; see TofC beginning on page 4) addresses the impacts of climate change on the catalytic process industries. These go beyond the catalysts themselves to include the breadth of products that they make, and the industry participants affected. What is the fate of liquid transportation fuels and the routes being used to make them, from established to developing pathways which are non‐CO2 generating (e.g., electro/photo‐catalytic H2, other “energy carrier” chemicals, etc.)? Future routes include: Power‐to‐X; green/blue H2; fuel cells and batteries; plastics recycling; “circularity” in intermediate/end products; and others (e.g., CCUS in refining/petrochemicals). Metrics including life‐cycle analyses (LCAs) and technology readiness levels (TRLs) are utilized to assess future prospects.

VII. Special Feature: "Climate Change Impacts on the Catalytic Process Industries” A. The Climate Drivers for Innovation in Catalysis B. Major Applications where Technology Advancements

are Required and/or Underway (e.g., fuels, energy carrier chemicals, polymer re‐use/recycling)

C. Catalyst/Process Technology Developments by Majors and Start‐Ups: Status and Outlook (with LCAs and TRLs) 1. Fuels (and Energy Carriers) 2. Chemicals/Intermediates 3. Polymers 4. Others (e.g., Small‐scale, Modular, and Distributed)

Intelligence Report - 2020

A Snapshot of Our Past Analysis…

The seventeenth edition (2018) predicted that inexpensive capital via low interest rates would fuel M&A activity in the industry, with ownership changes and substantial capital outlays to underpin future growth. Trends in the following were deemed insightful: (1) rising demand for octane (vs. diesel); (2) oil‐to‐chemicals conversion (vs. traditional refining); (3) the industrial internet of things (IIoT) and process/planning impacts; (4) natural gas (and NGL) utilization in fuels and chemical (olefins/aromatics) production; and (5) substitution of bio‐derived feedstocks for fossil‐based fuels, intermediates and polymers. Overall, the global merchant catalyst market was forecast to grow from $31.3 BIL/yr in 2017 to reach $39.5 BIL/yr by 2023, reflecting an AAGR of 4.3%. If you were to include licensing and other direct services, the market exceeds $40 BIL/yr.

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The Catalyst Group Resources 4 The Intelligence Report 2019-2025

INTELLIGENCE REPORTBUSINESS SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL CATALYTIC

PROCESS INDUSTRIES 2019-2025

CONTENTS

SECTION I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1

A. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 1

B. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................... 3

C. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 3

D. CATALYST INDUSTRY MODEL ENHANCEMENTS ................................................... 4

E. SOURCES OF INFORMATION ......................................................................................... 5

F. DEFINITIONS ..................................................................................................................... 6

SECTION II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. 7

A. REFINING ......................................................................................................................... 12

1. Global Catalyst Markets: Size & Growth ........................................................................ 12

2. Product & Process Developments ................................................................................... 14

3. Commercial Drivers ........................................................................................................ 17

4. R&D Drivers and Impacts ............................................................................................... 18

5. Refining - Strategic Analysis and Recommendations ..................................................... 19

B. PETROCHEMICALS/CHEMICALS ................................................................................ 20




4. R&D Drivers ................................................................................................................... 27

5. Petrochemicals/Chemicals – Strategic Analysis and Recommendations ........................ 27

C. POLYMERIZATION ......................................................................................................... 28




4. R&D Drivers ................................................................................................................... 33

5. Polymerization - Strategic Analysis and Recommendations .......................................... 34

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ......................................................................................................... 34



3. Commercial and R&D Drivers ........................................................................................ 36

4. Environmental – Strategic Analysis and Recommendations .......................................... 39


SECTION III. GLOBAL CATALYST MARKETS: SIZE AND GROWTH ....................... 41

A. REFINING ......................................................................................................................... 41

1. Global Overview ............................................................................................................. 42

a. Refining Capacity ..........................................................................................................42

b. Catalytic Refining Process Capacities ...........................................................................44

c. Refining Capacity Additions .........................................................................................44

d. Catalytic Secondary Refining Process Additions through 2024 ...................................47

e. Global Refinery Catalyst Markets .................................................................................49

2. Regional Analysis ............................................................................................................ 50

a. US & Canada .................................................................................................................50

b. Latin America ................................................................................................................50

c. Europe ...........................................................................................................................51

d. Africa .............................................................................................................................52

e. Russia & Caspian ..........................................................................................................52

f. Middle East ....................................................................................................................53

g. China .............................................................................................................................53

h. Other Asia Pacific .........................................................................................................54

B. PETROCHEMICALS/CHEMICALS ................................................................................ 54

1. Aromatics ........................................................................................................................ 55

2. Organic Synthesis ............................................................................................................ 57

3. Oxidation ......................................................................................................................... 58

4. Syngas and Derivatives ................................................................................................... 61

5. Hydrogenation ................................................................................................................. 64

6. Dehydrogenation ............................................................................................................. 65

7. Total Market .................................................................................................................... 66

8. Chemicals from Biomass ................................................................................................. 68

a Bio-Aromatics ...............................................................................................................68

b. Bio-Ethanol & Derivatives ............................................................................................69

c. Bio-Butanol & Derivatives ............................................................................................70

d. Bio-butanediol & Derivatives .......................................................................................70

e. Bio-Isoprene & Derivatives ...........................................................................................70

f. Bio-Adipic Acid & Derivatives .....................................................................................71

g. Bio-Succinic Acid & Derivatives ..................................................................................71


h. Lactic-Acid & Derivatives ............................................................................................71

C. POLYMERIZATION ......................................................................................................... 73

1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 73

2. Polyolefins (PE, PP) ........................................................................................................ 76

a. PE/PP Catalyst and Technology Market .......................................................................76

b. Polyethylene ..................................................................................................................85

c. Polypropylene ................................................................................................................86

3. Other Volume Plastics (PVC, PS/ABS) .......................................................................... 88

4. Engineering Thermoplastics and Rubbers ....................................................................... 89

5. Bio-plastics ...................................................................................................................... 91

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ......................................................................................................... 94

1. Regulations ...................................................................................................................... 96

2. Global Overview ............................................................................................................. 97

3. Mobile Markets ............................................................................................................... 98

a. Light Duty Vehicles ......................................................................................................98

b. Light-Duty Criteria Pollutant Regulations ....................................................................99

i. US ........................................................................................................................... 100

ii. Europe ..................................................................................................................... 100

iii. China ....................................................................................................................... 101

iv. India ........................................................................................................................ 101

v. Brazil ....................................................................................................................... 101

c. LD CO2 or Fuel Consumption .....................................................................................103

d. Medium/Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses .....................................................................104

e. Heavy-Duty Criteria Pollutant Regulations ................................................................104

i. US ........................................................................................................................... 104

ii. Europe ..................................................................................................................... 105

iii. China ....................................................................................................................... 106

iv. India and Brazil ....................................................................................................... 106

f. Heavy-Duty Greenhouse Gas Regulations ..................................................................106

g. Non-Road Heavy Duty Diesels ...................................................................................107

h. Non-Road Regulations ................................................................................................109

i. Marine Ocean Vessels/Locomotives ...........................................................................109

j. Locomotive and Marine Regulations ..........................................................................110


k. Motorcycles (2- and 3-wheel vehicles) .......................................................................111

4. Stationary Markets ........................................................................................................ 111

a. Power Generation ........................................................................................................112

b. Industrial ......................................................................................................................112

E. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 113

SECTION IV. NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS, BY PROCESS TECHNOLOGY . 119

A. REFINING ....................................................................................................................... 119

1. FCC ............................................................................................................................... 119

a. Introduction .................................................................................................................119

i. Trend to 95 RON and Increased Alkylate ............................................................... 119

b. Albemarle ....................................................................................................................119

i. Granite: Peak, Everest, and Denali Update ............................................................. 119

ii. AFX Update ............................................................................................................ 120

iii. Insight into Metal Poisoning ................................................................................... 121

c. BASF ...........................................................................................................................122

i. Fourte Catalyst ........................................................................................................ 122

ii. Boroflex .................................................................................................................. 122

iii. Valor Resid Catalyst ............................................................................................... 123

iv. Luminate Catalyst Introduction .............................................................................. 123

v. FCC Additive: Evolve for Higher Butylene Update ............................................... 123

vi. FCC Additive: EZ Flow .......................................................................................... 123

vii. Fortune Catalyst for More Butylene ....................................................................... 123

d. Grace ...........................................................................................................................124

i. Rive Acquisition and Integration ............................................................................ 124

ii. Grace GSR Technology for Gasoline Sulfur Reduction ......................................... 126

iii. Technip FMC Cooperation ..................................................................................... 126

iv. FUSION Catalyst .................................................................................................... 126

v. H-Oil VGO Challenge at Neftochem ...................................................................... 127

vi. Grace SOx Additives .............................................................................................. 129

e. Johnson Matthey ..........................................................................................................129

i. FCC Enhancement (CAT-AID) .............................................................................. 130

ii. SOx Additives ......................................................................................................... 130

f. Sinopec ........................................................................................................................130


i. RIPP Green Catalyst ............................................................................................... 130

ii. Sinopec/Clariant Agreement ................................................................................... 131

g. Others ..........................................................................................................................131

i. Rezel ....................................................................................................................... 131

2. Reforming ...................................................................................................................... 132

a. Drivers: Higher Octane ...............................................................................................132

b. KBR .............................................................................................................................133

c. Axens ...........................................................................................................................133

i. 100 Symphony Awards ........................................................................................... 133

ii. Axens at HPCL Rajasthan Refinery ....................................................................... 135

d. UOP .............................................................................................................................135

i. R364 for More Aromatics (Fuji Oil) ....................................................................... 135

ii. R560 Reforming Catalyst ....................................................................................... 135

iii. Zhejiang Petrochemical Co. .................................................................................... 135

3. Hydrotreating/Hydrorefining ......................................................................................... 135

a. Catalyst Regeneration ..................................................................................................136

i. Eurecat .................................................................................................................... 136

ii. Shell JV for Recycling ............................................................................................ 137

iii. ART Metal Reclaiming ........................................................................................... 137

b. Albemarle ....................................................................................................................137

i. FCC Pretreat............................................................................................................ 137

ii. HC Pretreat KF 780 ................................................................................................ 139

iii. ExxonMobil Cooperation with Albemarle.............................................................. 140

iv. Pulsar Catalyst ........................................................................................................ 141

v. DuPont Cooperation - Thermal Hydroprocessing .................................................. 142

c. Advanced Refining Technology (ART) ......................................................................143

i. 425 DX and 545 DX for FCC Pretreat.................................................................... 143

ii. ICR 316 and 548 DX .............................................................................................. 143

d. Axens ...........................................................................................................................145

i. New Generation of Hydrogenation Catalysts ......................................................... 145

ii. Nickel Based Catalyst: Galp ................................................................................... 145

e. Shell Catalysts & Technology .....................................................................................145

i. CRI, Criterion, & Shell Global Solutions ............................................................... 145


ii. 3rd Generation Type II Centra ................................................................................. 145

iii. FCC Pretreatment.................................................................................................... 145

iv. Advanced Pretreat Catalyst to Extend Hydrocracker Cycle ................................... 146

f. Haldor Topsoe .............................................................................................................146

i. TK-6001 HySwell ................................................................................................... 146

ii. Diesel HT @ Bathinda, Punjah ............................................................................... 147

iii. TK-26 TopTrap ....................................................................................................... 147

iv. ENI Cooperation ..................................................................................................... 147

g. UOP .............................................................................................................................147

i. Unity Catalyst Continued Expansion ...................................................................... 147

ii. Initial Commercial Experience ............................................................................... 148

h. Other ............................................................................................................................149

4. Hydrocracking ............................................................................................................... 149

a. Commercial Trends .....................................................................................................149

b. ART & CLG ................................................................................................................150

i. Haldia Refinery ....................................................................................................... 150

ii. ICR 1000 Technology Update ................................................................................ 150

iii. Afipsky Refinery: 2.5 mil ton/yr Hydrocracker License for ISOCRACKING ...... 151

iv. CLG-LC .................................................................................................................. 151

v. CLG – Neste ........................................................................................................... 151

vi. CLG-Hindustan Petroleum ..................................................................................... 151

c. Axens ...........................................................................................................................151

i. Reactor Internals ..................................................................................................... 151

ii. Shenghong Refinery................................................................................................ 152

iii. Corys Cooperation .................................................................................................. 152

d. Shell Catalysts & Technology .....................................................................................153

i. Scotford Refinery Experience ................................................................................. 153

ii. Shell MACH Catalyst for Hydrocracking............................................................... 153

e. UOP .............................................................................................................................155

f. Albemarle and Sinopec FRIPP Cooperation ...............................................................155

g. Haldor Topsoe ............................................................................................................155

h. Clariant ........................................................................................................................155

5. Resid Upgrading ............................................................................................................ 156


a. Resid Upgrading Review .............................................................................................156

b. ART/ CLG ...................................................................................................................157

c. Axens ...........................................................................................................................158

d. ENI’s EST Process ......................................................................................................159

6. Alkylation ...................................................................................................................... 159

a. Introduction and 95 Octane Gasoline ..........................................................................159

b. Albemarle/CB&I .........................................................................................................159

i. Alkyclean ................................................................................................................ 159

ii. CD Alkyl in China .................................................................................................. 159

c. DuPont .........................................................................................................................160

i. STRATCO: Shenghong Petrochemical .................................................................. 160

ii. Alon Refinery.......................................................................................................... 160

iii. Kuwait National Petroleum Company .................................................................... 160

d. UOP .............................................................................................................................160

i. UOP/Chevron Isoalkyl Process Update .................................................................. 160

e. Other ............................................................................................................................161

i. Exxon/Axens ........................................................................................................... 161

ii. KBR K-SAAT (Wynnewood Refinery).................................................................. 161

iii. KBR & RRT Global................................................................................................ 161

iv. PetroChina............................................................................................................... 161

v. Ionikylation: Well Resources .................................................................................. 161

7. Biofuels & Renewables ................................................................................................. 162

a. Overview & Supply Outlook .......................................................................................162

b. EU funded FASTCARD ..............................................................................................162

c. Neste ............................................................................................................................162

d. BP Expansion in Renewable Energy ...........................................................................163

e. LaMede Starts Up ........................................................................................................163

f. UOP .............................................................................................................................163

g. Clariant – Cellulosic Ethanol ......................................................................................163

h. Progress at U. Cal. Berkeley .......................................................................................164

i. ExxonMobil Algae Based Fuel Development .............................................................164

j. ENI: Gela .....................................................................................................................164

k. Axens Vegan Technology ...........................................................................................165


l. Biofuels ISOCONVERSION (BIC) Process ...............................................................165

B. PETROCHEMICALS/CHEMICALS .............................................................................. 166

1. Aromatics ...................................................................................................................... 166

a. Catalyst Technology & Major Suppliers .....................................................................166

b. Process Developments .................................................................................................166

i. Energy Efficiency in Aromatics Units .................................................................... 166

ii. Axens Crude Oil to Aromatics ................................................................................ 166

iii. ExxonMobil Liquid Phase Isomerisation................................................................ 167

iv. C1 to Aromatics ....................................................................................................... 168

2. Organic Synthesis .......................................................................................................... 168

a. Acetic Acid ..................................................................................................................168

i. Catalyst Technology & Major Suppliers ................................................................ 168

ii. Process Developments ............................................................................................ 169

b. Alpha-olefins ...............................................................................................................170



c. Methyl Methacrylate ...................................................................................................171



d. Nylon Intermediates ....................................................................................................172



e. THF/BDO/GBL ..........................................................................................................173



f. EDC/Vinyl Chloride Monomer ..................................................................................174



g. Terephthalic Acid/Dimethyl Terephthalate/PET .........................................................175



h. Polyurethanes ..............................................................................................................177

i. Polyurethanes - Isocyanates ........................................................................................177




j. Polyurethanes - Polyols ...............................................................................................178



3. Oxidations ..................................................................................................................... 180

a. Acrylic Acid/Ester .......................................................................................................180



b. Acrylonitrile ................................................................................................................181



c. Ethylene Oxide/Glycols ..............................................................................................182



d. Hydrogen Peroxide ......................................................................................................183



e. Maleic Anhydride ........................................................................................................185



f. Propylene Oxide ..........................................................................................................185



g. Sulfuric Acid ...............................................................................................................187



h. Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) .................................................................................188



4. Syngas and Derivatives ................................................................................................. 189

a. Steam Reforming .........................................................................................................189




b. Gasification .................................................................................................................191



c. Hydrogen .....................................................................................................................193



d. Fischer-Tropsch/Gas-to-Liquids .................................................................................197



e. Ammonia .....................................................................................................................198


i. Process Developments ............................................................................................ 199

f. Methanol and Derivatives ...........................................................................................199

i. Methanol Catalyst Technology & Major Suppliers ................................................ 199


iii. Methanol Derivative Catalyst Technology & Major Suppliers .............................. 202

iv. Methanol Derivative Process Improvements .......................................................... 202

g. Syngas/C1 to Olefins ...................................................................................................203

h. Other Syngas Chemicals .............................................................................................205



5. Hydrogenations ............................................................................................................. 205

a. Catalyst Technology & Major Suppliers .....................................................................205

b. Process Developments .................................................................................................206

6. Dehydrogenation/Olefins .............................................................................................. 206

a. Ethylene .......................................................................................................................206



b. Propylene/Butylene .....................................................................................................207



c. Butadiene .....................................................................................................................208




d. Isoprene .......................................................................................................................209



7. Chemicals from Biomass ............................................................................................... 209

a. Bio-Aromatics .............................................................................................................209



b. Bio-ethanol & Derivatives ...........................................................................................210



c. Bio-butanol & Derivatives ..........................................................................................213



d. Bio-butanediol & Co-Products ....................................................................................214



e. Bio-Butadiene & Derivatives ......................................................................................214



f. Bio-Isoprene & Derivatives .........................................................................................215



g. Bio-Adipic Acid, Bio-Caprolactam and Derivatives ..................................................215



h. Bio-succinic Acid & Derivatives ................................................................................216



i. Lactic Acid & Derivatives ...........................................................................................217




C. POLYMERIZATION ....................................................................................................... 218

1. Polyolefins (PE, PP) ...................................................................................................... 221

a. Polyethylene ................................................................................................................221

b. Polypropylene ..............................................................................................................227

2. Other Volume Plastics (PVC, PS/ABS) ........................................................................ 231

a. PVC .............................................................................................................................231

b. PS/ABS ........................................................................................................................233

3. Engineering Thermoplastics and Rubbers ..................................................................... 234

a. Polyethylene-terephthalate (PET) ...............................................................................234

b. Polycarbonates and Polyurethanes ..............................................................................236

c. Rubbers ........................................................................................................................238

4. Bio-plastics .................................................................................................................... 240

5. Polymer Recycling ........................................................................................................ 243

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ....................................................................................................... 248

1. Light Duty Engine Technology ..................................................................................... 248

a. Hybridization ...............................................................................................................250

2. Heavy-Duty Engine Developments ............................................................................... 250

3. Battery Electric Vehicles ............................................................................................... 252

4. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles ........................................................................................ 253

5. Gasoline Emission Control ............................................................................................ 253

6. Light-Duty Diesel NOx Systems ................................................................................... 260

7. Diesel Oxidation Catalysts ............................................................................................ 261

8. Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) ............................................................................ 262

E. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 266

SECTION V. COMMERCIAL DRIVERS AND IMPACTS, BY INDUSTRY .................. 283

A. REFINING ....................................................................................................................... 283

1. Global Refinery Capacity Overview and Estimates ...................................................... 283

2. Demand for Road Fuels ................................................................................................. 291

3. Chemicals from Refineries a Major Trend .................................................................... 293

4. Sulfur Regulations ......................................................................................................... 297

a. Impact of Marine Fuel Change ....................................................................................297

5. M&A/Spheres of Influence/Relaxation of Globalization .............................................. 298

6. Renewables, Including Biofuel ..................................................................................... 300



1. Raw Material Issues – Oil/Natural Gas/Shale/Coal/CO2 .............................................. 302

a. Coal to Chemicals .......................................................................................................302

b. Crude Oil to Chemicals ...............................................................................................303

c. Megaton Shale Gas Projects ........................................................................................304

d. Low Carbon H2 and CO2 .............................................................................................304

2. Geographic Issues .......................................................................................................... 306

a. China Self-Sufficiency and Hydrogen ........................................................................306

b. North America Shale Gas ............................................................................................306

c. European Dynamics ....................................................................................................307

3. What is the Outlook for M&A and Industry Consolidation? ........................................ 308

4. Summary ....................................................................................................................... 309


1. Market Drivers and Disruptions .................................................................................... 309

2. North America PE/PP Plant Investment Wave and Inter-Regional Trade .................... 310

3. Market Digitalization Impact on Polymer Performances & Consumptions .................. 312

4. Sustainability and Plastics Recycling ............................................................................ 313

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ....................................................................................................... 314

1. Light Duty Engine Technology and Costs of LD CO2 Reductions ............................... 314

2. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) .................................................................................. 316

3. Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) ............................................................................ 317

4. Systems for Emerging HD Low NOx Regulations ....................................................... 318

E. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 321

SECTION VI. R&D DRIVERS AND IMPACTS, BY INDUSTRY .................................... 327

A. REFINING ....................................................................................................................... 327

1. Light Tight Oil (LTO) & Other Feedstocks Continue to Have Impact ......................... 327

2. Innovative Players ......................................................................................................... 328

a. Alkylation ....................................................................................................................328

b. SOx Additives .............................................................................................................328

c. Biomass to Fuels .........................................................................................................328

3. Slurry ............................................................................................................................. 329

a. KBR VCC ....................................................................................................................329

b. UOP Uniflex Process ...................................................................................................331


c. CLG LC Slurry Process ...............................................................................................332

d. ENI’s Slurry Technology (EST) ..................................................................................333

4. Big Data ......................................................................................................................... 333

5. Catalyst Structure .......................................................................................................... 338


1. Carbon Efficiency .......................................................................................................... 338

2. Circular Economy .......................................................................................................... 339

a. Biobased Chemicals ....................................................................................................339

b. CO2 Utilisation ............................................................................................................340

c. Polymer Recycling ......................................................................................................341

3. Alternative Hydrogen .................................................................................................... 341

4. Catalyst Formulation ..................................................................................................... 342

5. Fine Chemicals .............................................................................................................. 343

6. Summary ....................................................................................................................... 343


1. Sustainability Requires Improved Polymer Materials ................................................... 344

2. Regulatory Changes Boost Innovation and Value Creation .......................................... 345

3. Circular Economy Drives Technology Innovation: a Future of Wastes to Chemicals? 346

4. Digitalization and the Chemical Plant of the Future ..................................................... 348

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ....................................................................................................... 350

1. Regulatory Developments ............................................................................................. 350

2. Engine Technology Developments ............................................................................... 352

3. Gasoline Emission Control ............................................................................................ 353

4. Diesel Emission Control ................................................................................................ 354

5. HD Natural Gas Developments ..................................................................................... 355

E. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 355

SECTION VII. SPECIAL FEATURE: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE CATALYTIC PROCESS INDUSTRIES ................................................................................ 359

A. THE CLIMATE DRIVERS FOR INNOVATION IN INDUSTRIAL CATALYSIS ..... 359

1. Evidence of Adverse Weather and Temperatures ......................................................... 359

2. Changing Investment and Financial Culture ................................................................. 359

3. Hard-to-Abate Emissions .............................................................................................. 361

4. Non-Petrochemical Production of Chemicals, Fuels and Power .................................. 362


B. MAJOR APPLICATIONS WHERE TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS AREREQUIRED AND/OR UNDERWAY ............................................................................. 364

1. CO2 Capture Sorbents in Direct Air Capture (DAC) .................................................... 364

2. Electrification of Chemical Processes/Power-to-X ....................................................... 365

3. Modular Small-scale Chemistry .................................................................................... 366

4. Biofuels Technologies ................................................................................................... 366

5. Plastics Circularity Solutions ........................................................................................ 367

6. Digitalization Strategies ................................................................................................ 367

C. CATALYST/PROCESS TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS BY MAJORS ANDSTART-UPS: STATUS AND OUTLOOK ..................................................................... 369

1. Fuels and Energy Carriers ............................................................................................. 369

a. Air Liquide CO2 to Methanol ......................................................................................369

b. Breathe CO2 to Methanol ............................................................................................370

c. CRI CO2 to Methanol ..................................................................................................371

d. Haldor-Topsoe, eSMR Methanol™ ............................................................................373

e. BASF/Linde/Lutianhua CO2 to DME .........................................................................374

f. Hydrogenics Water Electrolyser .................................................................................376

g. ITM Power Water Electrolyser ...................................................................................377

h. Sunfire CO2 to Methane and F-T Fuels, Combined with Direct Air Capture .............379

2. Chemicals/Intermediates ............................................................................................... 381

a. Anellotech Bio-p-Xylene ............................................................................................381

b. Avantium – Platform Chemicals .................................................................................382

3. Polymers ........................................................................................................................ 384

a. Covestro Green Polyurethane Chemicals ....................................................................384

b. Newlight – PHA Polymers ..........................................................................................385

c. LOOP Industries - RPET .............................................................................................387

d. Braskem – bio-PE ........................................................................................................388

4. Others (e.g., Small-scale, Modular, and Distributed Production) ................................. 389

a. Gefn – CO2 and Biomass to Surfactants and Specialty Chemicals .............................389

b. Hypergiant – Algae Bioreactor ....................................................................................390

c. Implications on Industrial Catalysis and the Competitive Landscape ........................391

d. Summary and Outlook .................................................................................................393

D. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 394


SECTION VIII. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND BUSINESS RECOMMENDATIONS . 399

A. REFINING ....................................................................................................................... 399

1. Industry Partnerships ..................................................................................................... 399

2. Chemicals’ Role in the Refinery ................................................................................... 400

3. Sulfur ............................................................................................................................. 400

4. Biofuels ......................................................................................................................... 401

5. Catalyst Capacities ........................................................................................................ 401

6. Regional Spheres of Influence ...................................................................................... 402


1. Major Global and Regional Business Trends ................................................................ 402

2. Energy and Feedstock Price Trends .............................................................................. 404

3. Circular Economy .......................................................................................................... 405

4. Summary ....................................................................................................................... 405


1. Flow of Investments into Regions Where the Consumers Are ..................................... 406

2. Market Consolidation .................................................................................................... 408

3. Chemical/Mechanical Recycling vs. Biopolymers Development Efforts ..................... 409

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ....................................................................................................... 410

1. Strategies and Recommendations: Light-Duty .............................................................. 410

2. Strategies and Recommendations: Heavy-Duty ............................................................ 413

E. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 415

FIGURES Figure II-ES-1 Global Catalyst Market Value, 2019-2025 (% of total) .................................. 11

Figure II-B-1 Global Petrochemical Catalyst Market by Application, 2019 (US$ %) ......... 21

Figure II-B-2 Deal Volume Share by Target Sector, 2019 ................................................... 26

Figure III-A-1 Oil Price Slammed .......................................................................................... 41

Figure III-A-2 Global Oil Demand to Drop 16 Million bps in April...................................... 42

Figure III-A-3 Distillation Capacity Additions from Existing Projects 2019-2024 ............... 45

Figure III-A-4 Secondary Capacity Relative to Distillation Capacity, January 2019 ............ 46

Figure III-A-5 Additional Cumulative Refinery Crude Runs, Potential* and Required** .... 46


Figure III-A-6 Historical and Projected Global Refinery Utilization, 2017-2024 .................. 47

Figure III-A-7 Additional Cumulative Crude Runs in Latin America, Potential and Required .......................................................................................................... 51

Figure III-B-1 Global Petrochemical Catalyst Market by Application, 2019 (US$ MIL) ..... 67

Figure III-C-1 PE/PP Catalysts 2019 Global Market Shares (USD %).................................. 77

Figure III-C-2 PE/PP Technology 2019 Global Market Shares (MT %) ............................... 79

Figure III-C-3 Recent Market M&A and Disruptions ............................................................ 80

Figure III-C-4 Global Metallocene Polyethylene (mPE) Resin Consumption, by Polymer, 2017-2025 (,000 MT) ...................................................................... 85

Figure III-C-5 Global Metallocene Polypropylene (mPP) Resin Consumption, by Polymer, 2017-2025 (,000 MT) ...................................................................... 87

Figure III-C-6 Differentiation of Bio-based Polymers ........................................................... 91

Figure III-D-1 BEV, PHEV and Hybrid Global Penetration Forecasts .................................. 96

Figure III-D-2 Comparison of Gaseous LD Tailpipe Regulations. The US Regulations (phasing in through 2025) are 70-80% Below the Levels of China 6b (nationwide 2023) and 80-90% Below those of Euro 6d. ............................. 100

Figure III-D-3 Summary of Criteria Pollutant LD Regulations in Major Markets Around the World ............................................................................................................ 102

Figure III-D-4 Summary of In-use LD Testing Requirements in Five Key Markets ........... 102

Figure III-D-5 Summary of CO2 Targets for Light-duty Passenger Cars in Major Markets. The Targets in the US are Still Uncertain ..................................................... 103

Figure III-D-6 Summary of Criteria Pollutant HD Regulations in Major Markets Around the World ......................................................................................... 106

Figure III-D-7 Non-Road Emissions Regulations ................................................................ 107

Figure III-D-8 NRMM Production by Region 2016-2026 ................................................... 108

Figure IV-A-1 Molecular Highway® Y-zeolite (MHY™) Technology .............................. 124

Figure IV-A-2 Rive Catalyst vs USY Catalyst ..................................................................... 125

Figure IV-A-3 Rive Catalyst Performance ........................................................................... 125

Figure IV-A-4 Introducing FUSION™ Catalyst, The Best of Both Worlds ........................ 127

Figure IV-A-5 Grace Nadius 4G Functionalities .................................................................. 128

Figure IV-A-6 Nadius 865 ZP Catalyst Ace Pilot Plant Activity vs Base ............................ 129

Figure IV-A-7 Worldwide Supply of BTX Aromatics by Source ........................................ 133

Figure IV-A-8 Symphony vs Pt/Sn Catalyst ......................................................................... 134

Figure IV-A-9 Desulfurization Capacity Requirements by Region, 2019-2040 .................. 136

Figure IV-A-10 Ketjen 907 Pilot Plant Performance .............................................................. 138


Figure IV-A-11 KF 780 Sales to FCC-PT & MD Hydrotreating ........................................... 139

Figure IV-A-12 KF 780 in MD Hydrotreating in Low & Medium Pressure as a Stand-Alone Solution or as Part of STAX .................................................... 140

Figure IV-A-13 Hydrocracker Normalized Weighted Average Bed Temperature (WABT) Increment from Start of Run ......................................................................... 141

Figure IV-A-14 Advantages of KF787 in a MD-HT Application .......................................... 141

Figure IV-A-15 Relative Advantage in Performance of KF787 Pulsar Compared with KF 780 in Various Middle Distillate Hydrotreating Ultra-Low-sulfur Diesel Applications @ Low and Medium Pressure. ..................................... 142

Figure IV-A-16 Blends of CoMo and NiMo Catalyst and Effects on Product Sulfur and Hydrogen Consumption ................................................................................ 143

Figure IV-A-17 ICR 316 vs. 425 DX...................................................................................... 144

Figure IV-A-18 548 DX vs 545 DX vs NDXi ........................................................................ 144

Figure IV-A-19 Activity of Shell’s Type I (DN-3551) and Type II (DN-3620) to Earlier Generations ....................................................................................... 146

Figure IV-A-20 H2 Consumption vs Product Sulfur Percent of ULTIMet ............................. 148

Figure IV-A-21 Axens’ Processes for Various Feeds ............................................................. 152

Figure IV-A-22 Estimate of a MACH Catalyst vs Conventional Zeolite Increases as a Function of Feed Molecule Heaviness................................................... 153

Figure IV-A-23 Shell Catalysts & Technologies and Zeolyst’s Hydrocracking Catalyst Portfolio ........................................................................................................ 154

Figure IV-A-24 MACH Catalyst Reduces Products Aromatics as Compared to Previous Generation ..................................................................................................... 154

Figure IV-A-25 Residual Fuel Oil Demand ............................................................................ 156

Figure IV-A-26 Resid Upgrading ........................................................................................... 157

Figure IV-A-27 Axens’ H-Oil Process ................................................................................... 158

Figure IV-A-28 Axens’ Global Reach .................................................................................... 158

Figure IV-A-29 CDAlkyl Process Flow Diagram .................................................................. 160

Figure IV-A-30 Chevron Biofuels ISOCONVERSION (BIC) Process Flow ........................ 165

Figure IV-B-1 Typical Aromatics Complex from Naphtha to PX ....................................... 167

Figure IV-B-2 Linear Alpha Olefins (LAO), Feedstocks, Products and Applications ......... 170

Figure IV-B-3 Key Chemical Conversions in the Production of MMA ............................... 171

Figure IV-B-4 Key Chemical Conversions in the Production of Nylon-6,6 and Nylon-12 ....................................................................................................... 172

Figure IV-B-5 Wanhua Multi-Stage Phosgenation of MDA to MDI ................................... 178

Figure IV-B-6 Econic Technologies Process for Polyether Carbonate Polyols (PECP) ...... 180


Figure IV-B-7 Novomer COEth™ Process for Glacial Acrylic Acid via Polypropiolactone ......................................................................................... 181

Figure IV-B-8 INEOS Ammoxidation Process for Production of Acrylonitrile .................. 182

Figure IV-B-9 Nouryon Anthraquinone Process for Hydrogen Peroxide Production .......... 184

Figure IV-B-10 Sumitomo’s HPPO Process for Propylene Oxide Production ...................... 186

Figure IV-B-11 JM Catacel SSR and ZoneFlow Structured Steam Reforming Reactors ...... 190

Figure IV-B-12 Main Processes Involved in Biomass Gasification ....................................... 193

Figure IV-B-13 The Gas Technology Institute Sorption Enhanced SMR Flowsheet ............ 194

Figure IV-B-14 Key Technologies for Water Electrolysis for Hydrogen Production ............ 195

Figure IV-B-15 Johnson Matthey New Ammonia Catalysts and Process Benefits................ 198

Figure IV-B-16 Methanol Derivatives, Products and Sector Applications ............................ 200

Figure IV-B-17 Silicon Fire/Uhde Small Scale Methanol Production ................................... 201

Figure IV-B-18 SINOPEC S-MTX Process for P-Xylene via Toluene Alkylation with Methanol ....................................................................................................... 203

Figure IV-B-19 Godavari Biorefineries Value Chain ............................................................. 212

Figure IV-B-20 Fused Deposition Modelling for Printing of PLA Filament ......................... 218

Figure IV-C-1 Hyperzone HDPE Technology ..................................................................... 222

Figure IV-C-2 Performance of Hyperzone IBC Grade vs. Benchmark Chromium-based Grades ........................................................................................................... 223

Figure IV-C-3 Performance of Hyperzone SBM Grade ESCR vs. Benchmark Chromium-based Grade ................................................................................ 223

Figure IV-C-4 Performances of Hyperzone Pressure Pipe Grade vs. LYB Benchmark L4904 ............................................................................................................ 224

Figure IV-C-5 Evolution of Dow Molecular Catalysts......................................................... 225

Figure IV-C-6 INTUNE OBCs PP-PE Compatibilization.................................................... 226

Figure IV-C-7 NP PP Catalyst Market Europe ..................................................................... 228

Figure IV-C-8 LYB Non-Phthalate PP Catalysts vs. Phthalate Type ................................... 229

Figure IV-C-9 LYB New NP PP Catalyst Comparing XS/C2 in Random Copolymers ....... 230

Figure IV-C-10 PS Productivity vs. Molecular Weight.......................................................... 233

Figure IV-C-11 PET Current Recycling/Disposal .................................................................. 235

Figure IV-C-12 Asahi Kasei Non-Phosgene PC Process ....................................................... 237

Figure IV-C-13 Econic Polyols from CO2 .............................................................................. 238

Figure IV-C-14 EPDM Catalyst/Process Innovation .............................................................. 239

Figure IV-C-15 PEF vs. PET Production Blocks ................................................................... 241


Figure IV-C-16 PEF vs. PET Product Properties ................................................................... 241

Figure IV-C-17 Plastics are Recycled in US Less than Other Common Materials ................ 244

Figure IV-C-18 China Bans Plastics Scraps ........................................................................... 244

Figure IV-C-19 Plastics Chemical Recycling Circular Supply Chain .................................... 246

Figure IV-D-1 T50 and T90 results (temperatures for 50 and 90% conversion) on experimental TCW formulations. Reactor testing done at SV = 30 K/h with aged powder catalysts. .......................................................................... 254

Figure IV-D-2 Toxic PAHs are Reduced >97% When Replacing an Underfloor TWC with a Catalyzed GPF. .................................................................................. 257

Figure IV-D-3 Putting some of the SCR catalyst on the filter enables the system to reach urea dosing temperature 90 – 140 s earlier, depending on the thermal mass of the reference DPF. .............................................................. 261

Figure IV-D-4 Cu-zeolite SCR catalysts are showing continuous improvement, particularly on HT durability, and LT and HT deNOx performance. Top figure shows a new catalyst (green line) performs well after aging at 900⁰C (Newman 2018). Bottom figure shows proven stability for 1000 hrs at 650⁰C (Geisselmann 2018). Both figures are for the standard SCR reaction (NO only). .............. 263

Figure V-A-1 2018 Complexity Ratio (FCC eqv. %) .......................................................... 285

Figure V-A-2 Annual Distillation Capacity Additions and Total Project Investment ........ 285

Figure V-A-3 Distillation Capacity Additions from Existing Projects, 2019-2024. ........... 286

Figure V-A-4 Additional Cumulative Crude Runs in Latin America, Potential and Required ........................................................................................................ 287

Figure V-A-5 Vehicles in Europe ........................................................................................ 288

Figure-V-A-6 Historical Diesel Versus Gasoline Growth in Europe .................................. 289

Figure V-A-7 Final Energy Consumption in Transport: by Region .................................... 291

Figure V-A-8 North American Gasoline & Diesel Demand ............................................... 292

Figure V-A-9 Final Energy Consumption in Transport: Consumption by Fuel .................. 292

Figure V-A-10 Toluene Methylation Process ........................................................................ 295

Figure V-A-11 North American Resid Fuel Oil Demand...................................................... 297

Figure V-A-12 Fuel Oil Standards (IMO 2020) Lead to Higher Resid and Distillate HPC Demand ................................................................................................ 298

Figure V-A-13 Downstream Acquisitions in the US through 2018 ...................................... 299

Figure V-A-14 Renewable Capacity Growth between 2019 and 2024 by Technology (GW) ............................................................................................................. 300

Figure V-A-15 Biofuel Production Growth by Key Markets, 2019-2024 ............................. 301

Figure V-A-16 Advanced Biofuels and Conventional Biofuels ............................................ 302


Figure V-B-1 Deal Volume Share by Target Sector, 2019 ................................................. 308

Figure V-C-1 North America PE Expansions ..................................................................... 311

Figure V-C-2 China PP Self Sufficiency Overview ............................................................ 312

Figure V-C-3 On-line Commerce Growth Boosts China PE/PP Demand .......................... 313

Figure V-D-1 Estimated Costs of CO2 Reductions Increase as the Technologies are Deployed ....................................................................................................... 315

Figure V-D-2 PHEV and BEV (right) LD global market penetrations through 2030 from Avicenne. BEV market share is estimated at 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2030. ................................................................................................. 316

Figure-V-D-3 CO2 and NOx EPA certification data show some engines can attain 60 mg/bhp-h NOx while also delivering low fuel consumption. ....................... 319

Figure-V-D-4 After-treatment architecture and test results on various cycles for NOx and CO2 emissions from the low HD NOx demonstration program at SWRI............................................................................................................. 320

Figure VI-A-1 Global Crudes and Characteristics ................................................................ 327

Figure VI-A-2 KBR’s VCC Process ..................................................................................... 329

Figure VI-A-3 Conventional and New Technology Combined ............................................ 330

Figure VI-A-4 Uniflex Performance with Integrated Distillate Unionfining™ Unit ........... 331

Figure VI-A-5 LC Slurry Flow Scheme................................................................................ 333

Figure VI-A-6 Interactions in Optimization ......................................................................... 334

Figure VI-A-7 Analytics Timeline ........................................................................................ 335

Figure VI-A-8 Predictive Analytics Data Flow .................................................................... 336

Figure VI-A-9 Refinery Capability & Performance Management ....................................... 337

Figure VI-B-1 Avantium Business Model for Production of Biobased Electrochemicals ... 340

Figure VI-B-2 HVO Chemistry for Production of Alternative Diesel ................................. 342

Figure VI-C-1 A Number of Plastic Packaging Segments are Targeted for Redesign and Innovation in the Circular Economy ...................................................... 345

Figure VI-C-2 DEMETO PET De-Polymerization .............................................................. 348

Figure VII-A-1 Total Fossil Fuel Financing by Year for Individual Financial Institutions (2016-2018)................................................................................................... 360

Figure VII-A-2 Global Energy Consumption by Fuel and CO2 Emissions Scenarios ........... 362

Figure VII-B-1 Power-to-X Processes for Making e-Chemicals, e-Fuels and Power. ........... 365

Figure VII-B-2 Elements of the Model of Digital Catalysis Science ..................................... 368

Figure VII-C-1 Air Liquide CO2 to Methanol Original and Revised Process Configurations............................................................................................... 370


Figure VII-C-2 CRI CO2 to Methanol Process ....................................................................... 372

Figure VII-C-3 Haldor-Topsoe eSMR Process ...................................................................... 374

Figure VII-C-4 BASF/Linde Dry Reforming Process for CO2 to DME and Olefins ............. 375

Figure VII-C-5 CO2 Footprint of Methane at the Store-N-Go Troja Demo Plant .................. 377

Figure VII-C-6 ITM Power 2 MW PEMEL and 10 MW Stack Skid ..................................... 378

Figure VII-C-7 Potential Carbon Reduction of Hydrogen for Electricity, Heat and Mobility with Substituted Conventional Energy Supply .............................. 379

Figure VII-C-8 Annellotech’s Plas-TCat................................................................................ 382

Figure VII-C-9 Avantium Patented Process for Oxalic Acid and MEG ................................ 384

Figure VII-C-10 LOOP Industries Process for Manufacture of RPET .................................... 387

Figure VII-C-11 Gefn’s QVIK Reactor for Small-scale Modular Production of Specialty Chemicals ...................................................................................................... 389

Figure VII-C-12 Gefn’s Process Scheme for Production of Sustainable Specialty Chemicals ...................................................................................................... 390

Figure VIII-A-1 Crude-to-Chemicals FCC.............................................................................. 400

Figure VIII-A-2 Global Proliferation of ULSD Standards ...................................................... 401

Figure VIII-B-1 IEA Change in Oil Demand, Supply and Net Trade Position in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2018-2040............................................................. 404

Figure VIII-C-1 China is Accelerating the Belt and Road Initiative ....................................... 407

Figure VIII-C-2 Toward New World Economic Zones: US Petchems Face Major Risk? ..... 408

TABLES Table II-ES-1 Global Catalyst Market Value, 2017-2025 (US$MIL) ................................... 11

Table III-A-1 Worldwide Refining Capacity, 2008-2019 (MBPD, # Refineries) ................. 43

Table III-A-2 Change in Refining Crude Distillation Capacity (BPD) ................................. 43

Table III-A-3 Catalytic Refining Process Capacities for 2017-2019 (BPD) ......................... 44

Table III-A-4 Secondary Capacity Additions from Existing Projects, 2019-2024 ............... 48

Table III-A-5 Global Cumulative Potential for Incremental Product Output*, 2019-2024 ....................................................................................................... 49

Table III-A-6 Global Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ................................ 49

Table III-A-7 US & Canada Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ..................... 50

Table III-A-8 Latin America Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) .................... 50

Table III-A-9 Europe Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ............................... 51


Table III-A-10 Africa Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ................................. 52

Table III-A-11 Russia & Caspian Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) .............. 52

Table III-A-12 Middle East Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ....................... 53

Table III-A-13 China Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ................................. 53

Table III-A-14 Other Asia-Pacific Refinery Catalyst Markets (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ............. 54

Table III-B-1 Global Catalyst Market for Aromatic Production (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ........ 55

Table III-B-2 Global Catalyst Market for Organic Synthesis (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ............. 57

Table III-B-3 Global Catalyst Market for Oxidation Catalysis (US$MIL, ‘000 MT ............ 59

Table III-B-4 Global Catalyst Market for Syngas and Derivatives (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) .... 61

Table III-B-5 Global Catalyst Market for Hydrogenation (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) .................. 64

Table III-B-6 Global Catalyst Market for Dehydrogenation (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) .............. 65

Table III-B-7 Global Petrochemical Catalyst Market by Application (US$MIL, ‘000 MT) ......................................................................................................... 66

Table III-B-8 Biobased Chemicals Process Development .................................................... 72

Table III-C-1 Plastic Resins Annual Growth Rates, 2019-2025 ........................................... 73

Table III-C-2 Worldwide Catalyst Market - Polymerization (US$ MIL) ............................. 74

Table III-C-3 Global Polymerization Catalyst Markets by Polymer and Catalyst Type: 2017-2025 (US$MIL & 000's MT) ...................................................... 75

Table III-C-4 Suppliers of Polymerization Catalyst Components & Initiators ..................... 76

Table III C-5 PE/PP Licensors by Process Technology ....................................................... 78

Table III-C-6 LyondellBasell Polyolefin Technology Licenses 2018-2019 ......................... 84

Table III-C-7 Bio-based Carbon Content of Some Bio-polymers ........................................ 92

Table III-C-8 Bio-polymers Production Capacity by Type 2019-2025 (000's MT %) ......... 93

Table III-D-1 World Market for Air Pollution Control by Application 2017-2025 (US$MIL) ....................................................................................................... 97

Table III-D-2 World Environmental Catalyst Market for Air Pollution Control by Region 2017-2025 (US$MIL)......................................................................... 98

Table III-D-3 Light Duty Vehicle Production 2017-2025 (MIL).......................................... 99

Table III-D-4 Worldwide Light Duty Vehicle Market by Region, 2017-2025 ..................... 99

Table III-D-5 Worldwide MDD+HDD On-Road Regulated Catalyst Market 2017-2025 ..................................................................................................... 104

Table III-D-6 Volvo NRMM Production by Aftertreatment 2016-2026 ............................ 108

Table III-D-7 Maritime Shipbuilding Forecast 2015-2025 (US$MIL) ............................... 110

Table III-D-8 World Motorcycle Catalyst Market 2017-2025 (US$MIL) .......................... 111


Table III-D-9 Worldwide Industrial Pollution Control by Region 2017-2025 ($USMIL) ..................................................................................................... 112

Table IV-A-1 Commercial Unit Using AFX ....................................................................... 120

Table IV-A-2 AFX Performance with Hydrocracker Bottoms in FCCU ............................ 121

Table IV-A-3 Boroflex Properties ....................................................................................... 122

Table IV-A-4 Impact of Feedstock Properties on Commercial FCC Unit Conversion Levels ........................................................................................ 128

Table IV-A-5 Typical Gasoline Pool Composition and Properties ..................................... 132

Table IV-A-6 Physical & Chemical Properties of PS 100................................................... 134

Table IV-A-7 Albemarle’s FCC Pretreat(Pt) Catalyst Portfolio ......................................... 137

Table IV-A-8 FCC Pretreat Design ..................................................................................... 138

Table IV-A-9 Ketjenfine® 907 Commercial References .................................................... 139

Table IV-A-10 UOP’s Unity Hydrotreating Product Line .................................................... 149

Table IV-A-11 Licensed CLG Residue Hydrocracking Units............................................... 150

Table IV-B-1 Production Routes for BDO, THF and GBL ................................................ 173

Table IV-B-2 INEOS Innovyn Range of Catalysts and Diluents for Oxychlorination ....... 175

Table IV-B-3 Applications, Advantages and Limitations of Different Polyols .................. 179

Table IV-B-4 Developments in Haber-Bosch, Novel Catalytic and Power-To-Ammonia Technologies ................................................................................................. 199

Table IV-B-5 Catalysts for Conversion of Syngas to Olefins (STO) .................................. 204

Table IV-B-6 Catalyst Suppliers and Types for Hydrogenations........................................ 206

Table IV-B-7 Rezel Catalyst Corporation Petrochemical Catalyst Range .......................... 208

Table IV-B-8 BASF Enzyme Range for Fuel Ethanol Production ..................................... 211

Table IV-C-1 Polymerization Production Technologies Using Initiators ........................... 219

Table IV-C-2 Polymerization Production Technologies Using Catalysts ........................... 220

Table IV-D-1 CO2 Reduction Engine Technologies and Emissions Issues for Light-Duty Vehicles...................................................................................... 249

Table IV-D-2 Technologies Available and the Potential CO2 Reductions .......................... 251

Table IV-D-3 Estimates of Pd and Rh TWC Loadings for 3- and 4-Cylinder Vehicles......................................................................................................... 256

Table V-A-1 Assessed Available Base Capacity as of January 2019 ................................ 284

Table V-A-2 Petrochemical Derivatives - Single Usage & Recycle Rates ........................ 293

Table V-A-3 Four Cases for COTC ................................................................................... 295

Table V-A-4 Announced Oil-to-Chemicals Investments 2019 .......................................... 296


Table V-D-1 Catalysts with Increased Activity, Selectivity, and Durability ..................... 319

Table VI-A-1 VCC Licenses ............................................................................................... 330

Table VI-A-2 UOP Uniflex Process Licensed Units Update .............................................. 332

Table VII-A-1 Existing Players and New Entrants in Biobased and Renewable Fuels........ 363

Table VII-C-1 CRI Actual GHG Emission Values Using ISCC EU GHG Module ............. 373

Table VII-C-2 Consumption and Production Data for Methanol from Dry Reforming and Steam Reforming ................................................................................... 375

Table VII-C-3 Typical Scales of Annual Global CO2 Demand for Selected Substitution Targets........................................................................................................... 380

Table VII-C-4 LOOP Industries LCA of LOOP PET vs Virgin PET & Mechanical RPET ............................................................................................................. 388

Table VII-C-5 Strategies for Successful R&D of Different Modes of Catalysis ................. 392

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