Presentación Ministra Laura Alfaro en Foro Innovación Asia Pacífico sobre India

8/9/2019 Presentacin Ministra Laura Alfaro en Foro Innovacin Asia Pacfico sobre India

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Dra. Laura Alfaro MaykallMinister for National Planning and Economic Policy

INNOVACIN ASIA PACIFICO:Costa Rica y su acercamiento a la India


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1. A more equitable and inclusive nation

2. A secure nation

3. Consistency between its ideology and its environmental positioning

4. A more competitive nation and connected to the global dynamics

Priorities of Government 2010 - 2014


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How we will do it?

1. Consistency with the Government Plan

2. Precise and measurable outcome

3. Impact and importance in national transformation toward developing

4. Relevance of public perception

5. Prioritys given by the team assigned


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We are moving towards a more secure nation led by

innovation, science and technology, strengthened by the solidarity

and commitment to environmental sustainability

En route to becoming the first developed nation in Latin America:

sustainable, compassionate and competitive.

100% renewable energy

2021 Co2 Neutral

Where are we going?


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Government Goals by 2014

1. Real growth between 5% and 6% per annum and improving

competitiveness indexes

2. Be a more equitable nation Solidarity with unemployment rate of 5%

3. Reducing the growth rate of violent crime

4. Achieve 95% power and advances in sustainable carbon neutrality

5. Better governance through political dialogue and modernization


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Major obstacles

1. Low productivity

2. Decrease in reducing extreme poverty and growing inequality

3. Tension between economic growth and environmental sustainability

4. Deterioration in quality of life

5. Problems in making decisions

6. Fiscal constraints


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The main Workspaces

10 goals in work area.Total 40 goals


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India Transformed?Insights from the Firm Level 1988-2007

Brookings-NCAER India Policy Forum 2009

Laura Alfaro -(Harvard & NBER)

Anusha Chari(UNC-Chapel Hill & NBER)


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Is there some action a government of India could take

that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesias

or Egypts? If so, what exactly? If not, what is it about the

nature of India that makes it so?

R. E. Lucas Jr.(Marshall Lecture, Cambridge University, 1985)


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1975-1985 1986-2007 1996-2007

Egypt 8,3% 4,2% 4,8%

India 4,1% 6,0% 6,8%

Indonesia 6,8% 4,9% 2,8%

Egypt 5,8% 2,3% 2,9%India 1,9% 4,3% 5,2%

Indonesia 4,6% 3,4% 1,5%

GDP Growth Rates

Per Capita Growth Rates

Notes: Average growth rate of GDP and GDP per capita(constant 2000 US$), from World Bank Development Indicators.

Tabla A: Egypt, India and Indonesia: Economic Growth(1975-2007)

Tabla A: Egypt, India and Indonesia: Economic Growth (1975-2007)

Egypt

India

Indonesia


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Numerous views about driving forces behind Indias Growth experience

1. Pro-business reforms in 1980s; Rodrik & Subrahmanian (2005)

2. Role of services perhaps overstated ; Bosworth, Collins & Virmani (2007)

3. Growth before 1991 largely driven by excessive foreign borrowing &

profligate fiscal spending; Panagariya (2005)

4. Investment in tertiary education & industrial diversity ;Kochar et al. (2006)


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Liberalizations & Economic Transformation

Liberalizations are believed to transform economies via more

competition (domestic and foreign), the removal of distortions in

relative prices and access to finance.

The effects of liberalization processes, however, may not be uniform.

Some industries may be better equipped to change while others are

not.

Within industries, new entrants may gain market share, while

incumbents go bankrupt.

Restrictions may linger in some sectors; and for some firms.


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Liberalizations & Economic Transformation

Creative destruction, the replacement of old firms by new firms and

of old capital by new capital, happens in waves (Schumpeter,

1942).

System wide reform or deregulation, such as the one implemented

in India, may be the shock that prompts the creative destruction

wave.

Firm-level data offer a lens through which to examine transmission

mechanisms (in our case, firm activity) that impact growth at the

micro-level.


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Ownership and Competitive Efficiency

1. What was the industrial composition by ownership before and after the

reforms of 1991?

2. Has the influence of traditional incumbents such as state- and group-owned

firms changed?

3. If so, what is the role of private-domestic and foreign firms?

4. What has happened to average firm size, market share and industry

concentration following liberalization?


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Preview of Findings (1)

Evidence shows great dynamism by foreign and private firms

growth in numbers, assets, sales & profits.

However, the data suggest an economy still dominated by the incumbents

(state-owned firms and business groups).

Continuing incumbent control shares of assets, sales & profits accounted for

by state-owned & business group firms.

Sectors dominated by state-owned and business-group-affiliated firms before

liberalization (with shares higher than 50%), incumbents remain the dominant

ownership group following liberalization.


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1. Rates of return remain remarkably stable over time and show low dispersion

across sectors and across ownership groups within sectors.

2. The fewer number of state-owned and business group affiliated firms

combined with their dominant shares of assets, sales and profits are

consistent with high industry concentration (especially in industries that

were not liberalized).


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The major exception to the pattern of incumbent firm dominance is seen in the

growth of private firms in the services industries between 2001 and 2007.

Asset, sales & profit shares of private firms in business and IT services,

communications services and media, health and other services show a

substantial increase in growth and in shares over this period.

Follows the reform measures that took place in services.

Also consistent with the growth in services documented in the aggregate data.


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Findings: Lingering Restrictions

Results are consistent with:

Topalova (2007) very little exit at the firm level in Indias industry data;

Goldberg et al. (2008) net product creation following trade liberalization was

almost exclusively driven by product addition as opposed to discontinuation

of product lines;

Banerjee (2006) banking sector in India, dominated by managed public sector

banks, fails to pull the plug on firms that ought to have been long shut down.

Explanations lingering restrictions & regulation constraining firm flexibility to

adjust and inefficiencies in the financial sector among others.


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Findings: political economy implications

Additional explanation (perhaps not sufficiently stressed in the debate)

Important remaining role of incumbents (state-owned firms and business

groups).

As emphasized in the political economy literature, entrenched incumbent firms

may have incentives to oppose the liberalization efforts (Rajan & Zingales,

2004, 2005).

We find both industry concentration and state-ownership to be inversely

correlated with the probability of liberalization.

These results are consistent with findings in Chari and Gupta (2008) focusing on

FDI liberalization.


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The Data

Firm-level data from the Prowess database collected by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian

Economy.

Coverage:

Firms in the organized sector.

Publicly listed and unlisted firms

About one-third of the firms in Prowess are publicly listed.

Wide cross-section of manufacturing, services, utilities, and financial industries.

Company balance sheets and income statements.

The companies covered account for more than 70% of industrial output, 75% of corporate taxes,

and more than 95% of excise taxes collected by the Government of India.


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Advantages of the data set

Detailed balance sheet and ownership information:

permit an investigation of a range of variables such as sales,

profitability, and assets.

Average of more than 17,000 firms across sample period 109 3-digit

industries covering agriculture, manufacturing and services.

Inclusion of services

Most existing work focused on the manufacturing sector.

Ownership information also advantage over industry-level data.


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What the data allow us to do..

The data are classified by ownership categories such as state-owned,

business groups, private stand-alone firms and foreign firms.

Allows us to examine whether the ownership composition of firms changed

(number & size of firms, & the fraction of sales/assets/profits by

ownership category).

Can also examine changes in firm activity/market dynamics in industries

where entry restrictions (foreign and domestic) were lifted.


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Dynamism and Reform:New Entry by Private & Foreign Firms

I II III IV

Owner /Per iod 1988 -19901991-

1995

1996-

2000

2001-

2007Owner/Period II-I III-II IV-III

State 662 705 782 856 State 6,5% 10,9% 9,5%

Business Group 3 .041 3.787 4.534 4.935 Business Group 24,5% 19,7% 8,8%

Private 8.153 11.559 14.213 15.063 Private 41,8% 23,0% 6,0%

Foreign 540 727 952 1.035 Foreign 34,6% 31,0% 8,6%

Table 1: Industrial Composition--Total Firms and Growth Rates (1988-2007)

Number of Firms: Average Number of Firms: Growth Rates

Full Sample Full Sample

Pattern broadly mimicked within all three sectors with the highest growth inservices.


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DYNAMIC GROWTH in PRIVATE & Foreign-OWNED ASSETs (Table 2)


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And Profits (Table 4)


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LIMIted dispersion in roa across owners


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Return on Assets (Table 5)


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Continuing incumbent control? (Table 7)


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Continuing incumbent control? (Table 7)

Sectors dominated by SOE & BG firms before 1991 (with fractions higher

than 50%), remain the dominant ownership groups following

liberalization.

Exceptions are seen in services where private and foreign firms accounted

for substantial fractions of not only numbers of firms but also fractions

of assets, sales and profits.

Manufacturing remains dominated by SOE & BG firms.

The combined role of private and foreign firms peaked at close to 25% in

recent years.


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Market dynamics & competitive Efficiency

A reduction in market concentration for the average firm oversample period (Table 9).

Declines in market shares and Herfindahl indices declines

Average firm in India becoming bigger, in terms of assets, sales andprofits.

The coefficient of variation (for both sales and assets) indicatesincreased dispersion.

Consistent with earlier evidence on increased firm activity andoverall higher dynamism in the economy.

Increased competition among Indian firms.


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Market dynamics & competitive Efficiency

1989-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2007

Market Share27 16 14 11

Herfindahl Index 0,40 0,38 0,33 0,30

The Evolution of Firm Size and Market Concentration

Full Sample


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Market dynamics & competitive Efficiency (Table 10)

Before After

Market Share 10,14 3,93

Herfindahl Index 0,22 0,17

FDI Deregulation


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Conclusions (1)

Between 1986 and 2007, Indian growth put to rest the concern that there

was something about the nature of India that made rapid growth

difficult.

Following broad-ranging reforms in the mid 1980s and early 1990s, the

state deregulated entry, both domestic and foreign, in many industries

and also hugely reduced barriers to trade.

We note that while liberalizations are believed to transform economies

through competition and the removal of distortions, the effects of

liberalization may not be uniform.


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Conclusions (2)

In this paper we analyze the evolution of Indias industrial composition by focusing on the

micro-foundations of its productive structure.

We examine the evolution of Indias industrial structure at the firm-level following the

reforms.

We also examine whether entry took place and if so, did it happen at the expense of

traditional incumbents such as state-owned and business group affiliated firms.

Finally, we examine the evolution of firm size, market share and industry concentration

over time and in industries that were liberalized to either domestic or foreign entry or

trade.


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Conclusions (3)

Creation in India seems to have been driven by new entrants in the private sector and

foreign firms.

Sectoral transformation in India does not, however, seem to have gone through an

industrial shake out phase in which incumbent firms are replaced by new ones.

Sectors in which state-owned enterprises and private business groups dominated activity

pre-liberalization continue to do so even twenty years after the reforms began.

Interestingly, many of the older firms (pre-independence) have on average withstood the

reforms), see Table 8.


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Implications

Certainly, the welfare implications of our findings are not clear cut especially in light of the

current international financial crisis and the increased role of the government in

private enterprise in the U.S. and other developed countries.

It may, however, be hard to justify the extent of state-owned presence that we continue to

see in India especially in light of the fiscal position.

Of course a lingering question in the literature is whether ownership per se matters or

whether exposure to competition through liberalization is a sufficient condition for

improvements in efficiency.


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Recent literature highlights the idea that economic growth may be impeded not simply because of

a lack of resources such as capital, skilled labor, and entrepreneurship but also because

available resources are misallocated (Banerjee & Moll, 2009).

High levels of state-ownership and ownership by business group affiliated firms in India raise the

question of whether existing resources could be allocated more efficiently and whether the

remaining barriers to competition penalize the effectiveness of the reforms.

While rates of return across ownership groups do not display significant dispersion, it is not

clear whether the rates of return for the incumbent groups are being driven by the

monopoly power that comes with high industry concentration or through inherent

efficiency.

Policy question: will privatization in the context of high industry concentration simply replace

state-owned monopolies with private ones as in Latin America?

and lingering questions


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Growth in Total Assets (Table 2)

High accumulation of assets in private and foreign firms in all sectors of the economy, but in

particular in transports, utilities, business & IT services, financial services, and other

services.

Lower panel shows asset accumulation across sectors, suggesting an increasing role for the

service sectors.

Growth of assets is far more dramatic in financial services, business and IT services, transport,

construction and media.


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India: Real GDP Growth 1970-2008

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Presentación Ministra Laura Alfaro en Foro Innovación Asia Pacífico sobre India

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