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Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

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Grupo N° 8 Integrantes: Dávila Cáceres, Boris Emilio. Flores Izquierdo, Luis Armando. Hun Vásquez, Ysel. Oroncoy Medrano, Orlando. Tema: Situación Actual y Perspectivas de las Economías del Sudeste Asiático
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Page 1: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Grupo N° 8

Integrantes:•Dávila Cáceres, Boris Emilio.•Flores Izquierdo, Luis Armando.•Hun Vásquez, Ysel.•Oroncoy Medrano, Orlando.

Tema:

Situación Actual y Perspectivas de las Economías del Sudeste Asiático

Page 2: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13
Page 3: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Country

Total land area Total population1/Population density1/

Annual population growth1/

Gross domestic product2/

at current prices

Gross domestic productper capita

at current prices

International merchandise trade5/

Foreign direct investments infow4/

Exports Imports Total trade

km2 thousand persons per km2 percent US$ million US$2/ US$ PPP 3/ US$ million US$ million US$ million US$ million US$ million

2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2011

Brunei Darussalam 5,765 422.7 73 2.0 16,359.6 38,702.5 52,059.0 12,362.3 2,460.0 14,822.3 625.4 1,208.3

Cambodia 181,035 14,521.3 80 1.5 12,766.2 879.1 2,287.4 6,710.6 6,133.6 12,844.1 782.6 891.7

Indonesia 1,860,360 237,670.7 128 1.5 846,821.3 3,563.0 4,736.0 203,496.7 177,435.6 380,932.3 13,770.9 19,241.6

Lao PDR 236,800 6,385.1 27 2.1 8,163.3 1,278.5 2,824.5 1,746.5 2,209.4 3,955.9 332.6 300.7

Malaysia 330,252 28,964.3 88 0.2 287,922.8 9,940.6 15,955.2 228,179.1 187,542.8 415,721.9 9,155.9 12,000.9

Myanmar 676,577 60,384.0 89 1.0 52,841.5 875.1 1,393.4 8,119.2 6,805.9 14,925.1 450.2 -

The Philippines 300,000 95,834.4 319 1.9 224,337.4 2,340.9 4,288.8 48,042.2 63,709.4 111,751.6 1,298.0 1,262.0

Singapore 714 5,183.7 7,257 2.1 259,858.4 50,129.9 60,744.4 409,443.5 365,709.1 775,152.6 48,751.6 63,997.2

Thailand 513,120 67,597.0 132 0.4 345,810.8 5,115.8 8,906.8 228,820.7 230,083.6 458,904.4 9,111.6 7,778.1

Viet Nam 331,051 87,840.0 265 1.0 123,266.9 1,403.3 3,439.6 95,365.6 104,216.5 199,582.1 8,000.0 7,430.0

ASEAN 4,435,674 604,803.1 136 1.3 2,178,148.1 3,601.4 5,580.7 1,242,286.4 1,146,305.9 2,388,592.3 92,278.6 114,110.6

EL SUDESTE ASIATICO: UN MERCADO DE 605 MILLONES DE HABITANTES ORIENTADO A SER UN COMPETIDOR GLOBAL E INDUSTRIALIZADO

Page 4: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Country

Growth rate of gross domestic

productat constant prices

Inflation rateExchange rateat end of period1/

Unemployment rate2/

International merchandise trade

Year-on-year change in foreign direct investments net

inflow3/Ratio of

exports to GDP

Ratio of imports to

GDP

Ratio of total trade to GDP

Growth of nominal value of exports

Growth of nominal value

of imports

Growth of nominal value of total trade

percent percentnational currency

per US$Currency percent percent percent percent percent percent percent US$ million percent

  2011 2011 2011   2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011

Brunei Darussalam 2.2 2.0 1.26 Dollar (B $) 2.6 75.6 15.0 90.6 43.5 3.2 34.8 582.9 93.2

Cambodia 6.4 5.5 4,079 Riel 0.2 52.6 48.0 100.6 20.2 25.3 22.6 109.2 14.0

Indonesia 6.5 3.8 8,775 Rupiah (Rp) 5.0 24.0 21.0 45.0 29.0 30.8 29.8 5,470.7 39.7

Lao PDR 8.0 7.6 8,011 Kip 1.3 21.4 27.1 48.5 -28.2 6.4 -12.3 (31.8) (9.6)

Malaysia 5.1 3.2 3.06 Ringgit (RM) 3.1 79.3 65.1 144.4 14.8 13.8 14.4 2,845.0 31.1

Myanmar 10.4 5.0 766.59 Kyat 4.0 15.4 12.9 28.2 6.8 62.1 26.5 - -

The Philippines 3.9 4.6 43.39 Peso (PhP) 6.4 21.4 28.4 49.8 -6.6 9.4 1.9 (36.0) (2.8)

Singapore 4.9 5.2 1.26 Dollar (S $) 2.9 157.6 140.7 298.3 10.3 11.5 10.9 15,245.6 31.3

Thailand 0.1 3.8 30.49 Baht 0.7 66.2 66.5 132.7 17.2 21.3 19.2 (1,333.5) (14.6)

Viet Nam 6.0 18.6 20,510 Dong 3.6 77.4 84.5 161.9 32.1 22.9 27.1 (570.0) (7.1)

ASEAN 4.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 57.0 52.6 109.7 16.0 17.6 16.8 21,832.0 23.7

EL SUDESTE ASIATICO: ECONOMIA EN CRECIMIENTO, CON BAJO DESEMPLEO PERO CON PROBLEMAS INFLACIONARIOS

Page 5: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: CRECIMIENTO CON HIPOS Y ALGUNO PERO CONTINUO Y ESTABLE

Country Base year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2010   2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Brunei Darussalam 2000 4.4 0.2 -1.4 -1.8 2.6 2.2 3.9 6.6 3.0 (1.9) 2.8 2.3 2.5 1.3

Cambodia 2000 10.8 10.2 6.7 0.1 6.0 6.4 - - - - - - - -

Indonesia 2000 5.5 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.3 6.5 5.9 6.3 5.9 7.0 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5

Lao PDR 1990 8.3 6.0 7.8 7.5 8.1 8.0 - - - - - - - -

Malaysia 1987 5.8 6.6 4.8 -1.6 7.2 5.1 10.1 9.0 5.2 4.8 5.0 4.3 5.7 5.2

Myanmar 1990 13.6 13.1 12.0 10.3 10.6 10.4 - - - - - - - -

Philippines

1985 5.3 7.4 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.9 8.4 8.9 7.3 6.1 4.9 3.6 3.2 4.0

Singapore

1995 8.6 8.5 1.8 -0.8 14.9 4.9 16.6 19.7 10.8 12.9 9.1 1.2 6.0 3.6

Thailand

1988 5.1 5.0 2.5 -2.3 7.8 0.1 12.0 9.2 6.6 3.8 3.2 2.7 3.7 (8.9)

Viet Nam

1994 8.2 8.5 6.3 5.2 6.8 6.0 5.9 6.3 7.4 7.2 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.6

ASEAN1/

n.a. 6.2 6.8 4.7 1.7 7.8 4.7

               

Page 6: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Brunei Darussalam

11,460.2 12,280.7 14,482.9 10,812.1 12,401.9 16,359.6 2,989.8 2,785.3 3,019.8 3,607.1 3,910.0 3,927.2 4,235.9 4,286.5

Cambodia

7,258.4 8,635.7 11,073.4 10,353.7 11,229.3 12,775.0 - - - -        

Indonesia

364,371.3 431,024.1 513,032.3 546,527.0 708,903.6 846,821.3 162,288.1 173,991.4 185,348.7 187,275.4 196,753.1 212,278.9 224,279.7 213,509.6

Lao PDR

3,360.1 4,229.9 5,285.3 5,585.0 6,852.5 8,163.3 - - - -        

Malaysia

157,237.3 187,112.1 223,188.1 193,180.0 247,328.2 287,922.8 56,326.5 59,619.5 63,746.1 67,636.1 69,103.0 71,947.8 74,058.5 72,813.4

Myanmar

13,187.6 19,131.9 25,435.2 31,830.8 42,228.1 52,841.5 - - - -        

Philippines 117,457.1 146,838.6 173,427.2 168,643.9 200,192.5 224,337.4 44,551.0 49,348.3 48,098.3 58,194.8 51,637.4 56,094.4 54,215.2 62,390.5

Singapore 145,071.8 176,769.6 193,535.4 183,798.9 227,754.8 259,858.4 52,978.0 55,502.3 57,078.5 62,196.0 63,817.4 64,634.4 66,097.8 65,308.7

Thailand 207,327.9 246,960.8 272,946.4 264,036.2 319,277.7 345,810.8 77,937.3 76,438.7 78,830.3 86,071.4 89,836.1 87,644.0 89,231.0 79,099.6

Viet Nam 60,965.2 70,964.8 90,515.1 97,078.3 106,530.9 123,266.9 19,905.1 26,542.7 27,515.3 32,567.8 22,195.3 29,753.8 31,774.0 39,543.9

ASEAN 1,087,696.9 1,303,948.2 1,522,921.4 1,511,845.8 1,882,699.6 2,178,156.8                

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: HAN LOGRADO MAS QUE DUPLICAR SU PBI

Page 7: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Brunei Darussalam 29,922.2 31,489.0 36,389.3 26,617.6 29,915.3 38,702.5

Cambodia 515.5 601.2 826.6 735.1 785.1 879.7

Indonesia 1,635.8 1,910.2 2,245.0 2,362.1 3,027.2 3,563.0

Lao PDR 584.7 720.2 880.8 911.4 1,099.9 1,278.5

Malaysia 5,902.3 6,885.8 8,049.0 6,824.5 8,555.5 9,940.6

Myanmar 233.3 332.7 435.7 538.3 706.4 875.1

Philippines 1,350.5 1,657.8 1,917.2 1,828.6 2,129.4 2,340.9

Singapore 32,960.4 38,523.7 39,991.6 36,851.2 44,862.8 50,129.9

Thailand 3,161.7 3,739.5 4,105.6 3,946.6 4,743.3 5,115.8

Viet Nam 724.6 833.4 1,049.9 1,128.5 1,225.5 1,403.3

ASEAN 1,917.7 2,266.5 2,614.9 2,564.3 3,152.8 3,601.4

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: EL INGRESO Y CAPACIDAD ADQUISITIVA DE SU POBLACION ESTA EN ALZA

Page 8: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

CountryLatest

Base year2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Brunei Darussalam 2005 (0.7) 1.3 2.6 1.2 (2.1) 1.8

(2.6) (2.7) (2.8) (2.1) - - - -

Cambodia 2006 2.8 10.8 12.5 5.3 3.1 4.9

- - - - - - - -

Indonesia1/ 2007 6.6 6.6 11.1 2.8 7.0 3.8

3.4 5.0 5.8 7.0 - - - -

Lao PDR 1905 (3.7) 5.5 3.2 3.9 5.8 7.7

- - - - - - - -

Malaysia 2005 3.1 2.4 4.4 1.1 2.2 3.0

1.3 1.7 1.8 2.2 - - - -

Myanmar 2006 - - - - - -

- - - - - - - -

Philippines 2009 4.3 3.9 8.0 4.5 3.6 4.2

4.4 3.9 3.5 3.6 - - - -

Singapore 2009 0.8 4.4 (5.6) (0.6) 4.6 5.5

1.6 2.7 3.6 4.6 - - - -

Thailand 2007 3.5 3.2 0.4 3.5 3.0 3.6

3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 - - - -

Viet Nam 2009 6.6 12.6 19.9 6.9 7.9 8.9

7.9 8.9 9.9 7.9 - - - -

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: LA INFLACION Y EL SOBRECALENTAMIENTO DE SU ECONOMICA ES UN RIESGO IMPORTANTE

Page 9: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Country

2009 2010 1/ Year-on-year change

Exports Imports Total trade Exports Imports Total trade Exports Imports Total trade

Brunei Darussalam 7,152.0 2,450.5 9,602.5 8,615.4 2,383.8 10,999.2 20.5 (2.7) 14.5

Cambodia 4,985.8 3,900.9 8,886.7 5,583.6 4,896.8 10,480.3 12.0 25.5 17.9

Indonesia 116,510.0 96,829.2 213,339.2 157,779.1 135,663.3 293,442.4 35.4 40.1 37.5

Lao PDR 1,237.2 1,725.0 2,962.1 2,432.8 2,076.4 4,509.1 96.6 20.4 52.2

Malaysia 156,890.9 123,330.5 280,221.4 198,800.8 164,733.5 363,534.3 26.7 33.6 29.7

Myanmar 6,341.5 3,849.9 10,191.3 7,599.5 4,198.7 11,798.3 19.8 9.1 15.8

The Philippines 38,334.7 45,533.9 83,868.6 51,431.7 58,228.6 109,660.3 34.2 27.9 30.8

Singapore 269,832.5 245,784.7 515,617.1 371,194.3 328,078.9 699,273.3 37.6 33.5 35.6

Thailand 152,497.2 133,769.6 286,266.8 195,312.3 189,728.4 385,040.8 28.1 41.8 34.5

Viet Nam 56,691.0 69,230.9 125,921.9 72,191.9 84,801.2 156,993.1 27.3 22.5 24.7

ASEAN 810,472.6 726,405.0 1,536,877.6 1,070,941.4 974,789.6 2,045,731.0 32.1 34.2 33.1

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: LA BALANZA COMERCIAL ES EQUILIBRADA Y POSITIVA

Page 10: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Country

Intra-ASEAN exports Extra-ASEAN exports

Total exports

Intra-ASEAN imports Extra-ASEAN imports

Total imports

Intra-ASEAN trade Extra-ASEAN trade

Total trade

ValueShare to

total exportsValue

Share to total exports

ValueShare to

total importsValue

Share to total imports

ValueShare to

total tradeValue

Share to total trade

Brunei Darussalam 1,721.1 13.9 10,641.2 86.1 12,362.3 1,191.1 48.4 1,268.9 51.6 2,460.0 2,912.1 19.6 11,910.2 80.4 14,822.3

Cambodia 833.7 12.4 5,876.8 87.6 6,710.6 2,170.1 35.4 3,963.5 64.6 6,133.6 3,003.8 23.4 9,840.3 76.6 12,844.1

Indonesia 42,098.9 20.7 161,397.8 79.3 203,496.7 57,254.3 32.3 120,181.3 67.7 177,435.6 99,353.2 26.1 281,579.1 73.9 380,932.3

Lao PDR 959.8 55.0 786.7 45.0 1,746.5 1,570.5 71.1 638.8 28.9 2,209.4 2,530.3 64.0 1,425.5 36.0 3,955.9

Malaysia 56,049.7 24.6 172,129.5 75.4 228,179.1 52,090.0 27.8 135,452.8 72.2 187,542.8 108,139.7 26.0 307,582.2 74.0 415,721.9

Myanmar 3,957.4 48.7 4,161.8 51.3 8,119.2 3,250.3 47.8 3,555.6 52.2 6,805.9 7,207.7 48.3 7,717.4 51.7 14,925.1

The Philippines 8,635.3 18.0 39,406.9 82.0 48,042.2 15,040.3 23.6 48,669.1 76.4 63,709.4 23,675.6 21.2 88,076.0 78.8 111,751.6

Singapore 127,544.5 31.2 281,899.0 68.8 409,443.5 78,126.4 21.4 287,582.7 78.6 365,709.1 205,670.9 26.5 569,481.7 73.5 775,152.6

Thailand 72,226.6 31.6 156,594.1 68.4 228,820.7 39,224.2 17.0 190,859.5 83.0 230,083.6 111,450.8 24.3 347,453.5 75.7 458,904.4

Viet Nam 13,504.8 14.2 81,860.7 85.8 95,365.6 20,793.2 20.0 83,423.3 80.0 104,216.5 34,298.1 17.2 165,284.0 82.8 199,582.1

ASEAN 327,531.8 26.4 914,754.6 73.6 1,242,286.4 270,710.4 23.6 875,595.5 76.4 1,146,305.9 598,242.2 25.0 1,790,350.0 75.0 2,388,592.3

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: ESTAN TAMBIEN DESARROLLANDO UN MERCADO INTRA-REGIONAL Y NO SOLAMENTE DEPENDIENTE DE LOS MERCADOS GLOBALES

Page 11: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Partner country/region

Value Share to total ASEAN trade

Exports Imports Total trade Exports Imports Total trade

ASEAN 327,531.8 270,710.4 598,242.2 26.4 23.6 25.0

China 127,908.5 152,497.1 280,405.5 10.3 13.3 11.7

Japan 145,197.7 128,149.4 273,347.1 11.7 11.2 11.4

EU-27 126,593.5 108,182.6 234,776.2 10.2 9.4 9.8

USA 106,305.6 92,480.3 198,785.9 8.6 8.1 8.3

Republic of Korea 54,468.0 70,002.9 124,470.9 4.4 6.1 5.2

India 42,754.7 25,674.1 68,428.8 3.4 2.2 2.9

Australia 37,253.9 22,220.5 59,474.4 3.0 1.9 2.5

Russia 2,689.4 11,278.5 13,967.9 0.2 1.0 0.6

Canada 5,292.7 5,478.4 10,771.1 0.4 0.5 0.5

New Zealand 4,569.3 3,667.5 8,236.7 0.4 0.3 0.3

Pakistan 6,001.8 765.7 6,767.4 0.5 0.1 0.3

Total selected partner countries/regions 986,566.9 891,107.3 1,877,674.2 79.4 77.7 78.6

Others2/ 255,719.5 255,198.6 510,918.0 20.6 22.3 21.4

Total ASEAN 1,242,286.4 1,146,305.9 2,388,592.3 100.0 100.0 100.0

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: APUNTAN A SER SOCIOS COMERCIALES DE LAS ECONOMIAS MAS IMPORTANTES DEL MUNDO

Page 12: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Export market Import origin

Country of destination1/ Value of exports Share to total Country of origin1/ Value of Imports Share to total

ASEAN 327,531.8 26.4 ASEAN 270,710.4 23.6

Japan 145,197.7 11.7 China 152,497.1 13.3

China 127,908.5 10.3 Japan 128,149.4 11.2

EU-27 126,593.5 10.2 EU-27 108,182.6 9.4

USA 106,305.6 8.6 USA 92,480.3 8.1

Hong Kong 81,312.9 6.5 Republic of Korea 70,002.9 6.1

Republic of Korea 54,468.0 4.4 Taiwan 47,214.9 4.1

India 42,754.7 3.4 Saudi Arabia 36,186.3 3.2

Australia 37,253.9 3.0 United Arab Emirates 31,356.4 2.7

Taiwan 33,650.7 2.7 India 25,674.1 2.2

Total top ten destination countries 1,082,977.3 87.2 Total top ten origin countries 962,454.3 84.0

Others2/ 159,309.1 12.8 Others2/ 183,851.5 16.0

Total 1,242,286.4 100.0 Total 1,146,305.9 100.0

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: SU MERCADO DE EXPORTACION ES DIVERSO Y ABARCA LOS PRINCIPALES MERCADOS

Page 13: Presentacion Trabajo Grupal Macroeconomia V1 26-04-13

Commodity group1/ Value Share to total ASEAN trade

2-digit HS code Description Exports Imports Total trade Exports Imports Total trade

27Mineral fuels, mineral oils & products of their distillation; bitumin substances; mineral wax

228,086.3 251,335.2 401,530.4 18.4 21.9 16.8

85Electric machinery, equipment and parts; sound equipment; television equipment

249,590.6 221,941.0 273,577.5 20.1 19.4 11.5

84Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof

134,458.9 145,786.4 261,453.4 10.8 12.7 10.9

39 Plastics and articles thereof 37,323.1 35,136.8 65,626.1 3.0 3.1 2.7

87 Vehicles, (not railway, tramway, rolling stock); parts and accessories 31,336.9 34,339.3 57,561.8 2.5 3.0 2.4

40 Rubber and articles thereof 52,563.5 12,735.3 53,638.2 4.2 1.1 2.2

29 Organic chemicals 36,747.3 25,749.9 45,748.1 3.0 2.2 1.9

71Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semiprecious stones, precious metals and metals clad therewith and articles thereof; imitation jewelry; coin

25,736.3 33,728.3 41,802.3 2.1 2.9 1.8

15Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their clevage products; prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes

47,256.3 7,211.8 40,376.7 3.8 0.6 1.7

72 Iron and Steel 9,382.0 40,224.7 38,817.1 0.8 3.5 1.6

  Top Ten Commodities 852,481.4 808,188.8 1,280,131.6 68.6 70.5 53.6

Others2/   389,805.0 338,117.1 1,108,460.7 31.4 29.5 46.4

Total   1,242,286.4 1,146,305.9 2,388,592.3 100.0 100.0 100.0

El SUDESTE ASIATICO: ESTAN DIVERSIFICANDO Y DOTANDO DE MAYOR VALOR AGREGADO A SU OFERTA EXPORTADORA / NO DEPENDEN PRINCIPALMENTE DE LA EXPORTACION DE MATERIAS

PRIMAS SIN MAYOR VALOR AGREGADO

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