UGM CAPITAL MARKET DISCUSSION

I Gusti Ngurah Komang Suadnyana

Yogyakarta, 6 September 2016

My Profile

• I Gusti Ngurah Komang Suadnyana

• 22 Yo

• STIE YKPN

• My license: Broker dealer certified (WPPE)

• My research: “Analisis Perbedaan Pengaruh Laju Inflasi, Kebijakan Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar dan Pertumbuhan PDB Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Properti dan Sektor Keuangan. (Studi empiris di BEI pengamatan tahun 2008-2015)”

My Portofolio

My License

Discussion Overview

• What is fundamental analyze?

• What is technical analyze?

• Which is more better between fundamental or technical analyze?

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYZE

Fundamental analyze is an analyze that concern about the situation of marcoeconomics and politics in some country, P/L company report, cash flow, and current balance.

Macroeconomics Analyze

• Inflationo The reference said if the inflation incline it make the stock market down.

Why? But?

• Interest Rateo The reference said if the interest rate incline it make the stock market

down. Why? But?

• Exchange Rateo The reference said if the exchange rate (US Dollar) incline it make the

stock market down. Why? But?

• Growth of GDPo The reference said if the growth of GDP (Rupiah) incline it make the

stock market up. Why? But?

Why?

Conclusion

• Based on the data we can see that trend of inflation, BI rate and GDP is decline and exchange rate (US Dollar) incline. So, its mean:o The inflation trend is decline and the stock market up.

CONSISTENT!o The BI rate trend is decline and the stock market up.

CONSISTENT!o The GDP trend is decline and the stock market up.

INCONSISTENT!o The exchange rate (US Dollar) trend is incline and the stock

market up. INCONSISTENT!

• Why the stock index up from 2008-2015? Because foreign net buy!

The Fact!

Microeconomics Analyze

• Microeconomics Analyze or Company Analyze?o All about ratio?

• Activity ratio? ( TATO, Inventory Turnover, Receivable Turnover)

• Liquidity ratio? (CR, QR)

• Profitability ratio? (GPM, NPM, ROI, ROA, ROE)

• Leverage ratio? (DAR, DER)o Company economic moat (UNVR, INDF, ASII)

(Riyanto, 2001)

TECHNICAL ANALYZE

Technical analyze is an analyze that use for short term investor (trader). The function is to predicted the stock movement. By the end, trader can make a desicion to buy/sell stock

Leading Indicator

• Leading indicator is the indicator that move before the stock price change.

• Leading indicator such as Stockhastic (fast or slow).

Leading Indicator

Lagging Indicator

• Lagging indicator is the indicator that move after the stock price change.

• Lagging indicator such as Moving Average (MA 20, 60, 120).

Lagging Indicator

your self your budget your goal your ways

4 METHOD of KNOWING

MAKE IT EASY!

Investing

Selecting Stock• Macroeconomi

cs• Microeconomi

cs

When to buy/sell•Technical Analyze

Your goal is your style• Short term• Long term

DON’T LOSE YOUR MONEY!

LOOKING AHEAD

• Always listening to the news or peoples.

• Known risks and issues!

• Make your self skeptic.

Bibliographywww.beritasatu.com

www.dwsec-id.com

Riyanto, Bambang.  2001. Dasar-dasar Pembelanjaan

Perusahaan. Yogyakarta. BFE UGM.

--THE END--Thank you