Presentation 3.5: Greenhouse gas and carbon profile of the global forest products industry Reid Miner Vice President National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. (NCASI) Email: [email protected]Abstract The global greenhouse gas and carbon profile of the forest products industry value chain consists of emissions, sequestration and avoided emissions. In this paper, we characterize the different components of this profile and examine trends and policies that may affect it in the future. The estimates developed in this study suggest that emissions related to (a) fossil fuel use in manufacturing, (b) electricity purchases and (c) decomposing forest products in landfills are of comparable importance to the industry’s global profile. The greenhouse gas emissions along the industry’s value chain, however, are largely offset by sequestration, primarily in forest products. Due to data gaps and uncertainties in the estimates, primarily for carbon sequestration in forests and methane emissions from forest products in landfills, it is not possible at this time to know the precise balance between global value chain emissions and sequestration. Emissions from the global forest products industry value chain are expected to remain constant or decline slowly as the effects of increasing production are offset by improvements in the emissions intensity of manufacturing and reduced emissions from products in landfills. Carbon sequestration in products will become an even larger piece of the industry’s profile as the demand for forest products increases in response to population growth and increasing standards of living. Continued progress in improving the industry’s greenhouse gas and carbon profile will depend on industry maintaining its efforts to reduce emissions intensity. Private investment and public policies to ensure adequate supplies of biomass for raw material and fuel will also be needed. Also critical will be policies that keep forest products out of landfills, and control methane releases from landfills. 303
Transcript
Presentation 3.5: Greenhouse gas and carbon profile of the global forest products industry Reid Miner Vice President National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. (NCASI) Email: [email protected] Abstract The global greenhouse gas and carbon profile of the forest products industry value chain consists of emissions, sequestration and avoided emissions. In this paper, we characterize the different components of this profile and examine trends and policies that may affect it in the future. The estimates developed in this study suggest that emissions related to (a) fossil fuel use in manufacturing, (b) electricity purchases and (c) decomposing forest products in landfills are of comparable importance to the industry’s global profile. The greenhouse gas emissions along the industry’s value chain, however, are largely offset by sequestration, primarily in forest products. Due to data gaps and uncertainties in the estimates, primarily for carbon sequestration in forests and methane emissions from forest products in landfills, it is not possible at this time to know the precise balance between global value chain emissions and sequestration. Emissions from the global forest products industry value chain are expected to remain constant or decline slowly as the effects of increasing production are offset by improvements in the emissions intensity of manufacturing and reduced emissions from products in landfills. Carbon sequestration in products will become an even larger piece of the industry’s profile as the demand for forest products increases in response to population growth and increasing standards of living. Continued progress in improving the industry’s greenhouse gas and carbon profile will depend on industry maintaining its efforts to reduce emissions intensity. Private investment and public policies to ensure adequate supplies of biomass for raw material and fuel will also be needed. Also critical will be policies that keep forest products out of landfills, and control methane releases from landfills.
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Greenhouse gas and carbon profile of the global forest
products industry
Greenhouse gas and carbon profile of the global forest
products industry
Reid Miner, NCASI
Dr. John Perez-Garcia, University of Washington
• This work makes use of information
developed in several earlier projects
performed by NCASI and Univ. of
Washington for WBCSD and ICFPA
• The analysis is based on primarily on data
and methods from IPCC, FAO, IEA, and
national trade associations
• This is a global assessment
– The footprint will look different for specific nations or regions
BackgroundBackground
305
The pieces of the profileThe pieces of the profile
-- Direct emissions Direct emissions -- manufacturingmanufacturing
-- Indirect emissionsIndirect emissions
* Purchased power * Purchased power -- manufacturingmanufacturing
* Transport (assuming are indirect)* Transport (assuming are indirect)
* Methane from products in landfills* Methane from products in landfills
•• EmissionsEmissions
-- ForestsForests
-- Products in useProducts in use
-- Products in landfillsProducts in landfills
•• Carbon Carbon
sequestrationsequestration
-- Biomass energyBiomass energy
-- CHPCHP
-- RecyclingRecycling
-- Substitution effectsSubstitution effects
•• Avoided Avoided
emissionsemissions
The pieces of the profileThe pieces of the profile
-- Direct emissions Direct emissions -- manufacturingmanufacturing
-- Indirect emissionsIndirect emissions
* Purchased power * Purchased power -- manufacturingmanufacturing
* Transport (assuming are indirect)* Transport (assuming are indirect)
* Methane from products in landfills* Methane from products in landfills
•• EmissionsEmissions
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The Emissions PictureThe Emissions Picture
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
10
6 T
on
ne
s C
O2
Eq
uiv
. p
er
yr
Manufacturing
facilities
Purchased power Transport Methane from
landfills
????
??
??
Manufacturing-related
emissions
The pieces of the profileThe pieces of the profile
-- Direct emissions Direct emissions -- manufacturingmanufacturing
-- Indirect emissionsIndirect emissions
* Purchased power * Purchased power -- manufacturingmanufacturing
* Transport (assuming are indirect)* Transport (assuming are indirect)
* Methane from products in landfills* Methane from products in landfills
•• EmissionsEmissions
-- ForestsForests
-- Products in useProducts in use
-- Products in landfillsProducts in landfills
•• Carbon Carbon
sequestrationsequestration
-- Biomass energyBiomass energy
-- CHPCHP
-- RecyclingRecycling
-- Substitution effectsSubstitution effects
•• Avoided Avoided
emissionsemissions
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The pieces of the profileThe pieces of the profile
-- ForestsForests
-- Products in useProducts in use
-- Products in landfillsProducts in landfills
•• Carbon Carbon
sequestrationsequestration
• Three types of effects
– Sustainably managed forests
– Establishing new forests
– Converting forest to non-forest (deforestation)
Forest ecosystem carbonForest ecosystem carbon
308
– Steady-state assumption Ignores carbon accumulating on industry-owned or –managed set asides
– Net zero stock change is a reasonable base assumption
• Establishing new managed forests
Forest ecosystem carbonForest ecosystem carbon
Very low
carbon stocksMuch larger
carbon stocks
Lower
carbon stocks
High
carbon stocks
– 1990s, ~ 1.6 million acres of non-forest to managed forest (FAO)
– 1990s, ~ 1.5 million acres of natural forest to managed forest (FAO)
– Available information suggests that at a global level, the carbon impacts approximately cancel each other out
309
Forest ecosystem carbonForest ecosystem carbon• Converting natural forest to non-forest
– Where and why is deforestation happening?
Source FAO
Over 90% of natural forests
lost in the tropics are converted to non-forest uses,
primarily agriculture
Over 90% of natural forests
lost in the tropics are converted to non-forest uses,
primarily agriculture
The industry’s positionThe industry’s position
• The global forest products industry is opposed to illegal logging and is committed to a global expansion of third-party certification of sustainable forest management practices
• The forest products industry’s use of forests probably does not directly cause significant increases or decreases in global forest carbon stocks – Very high uncertainty in the
estimates
Carbon in products-in-useCarbon in products-in-use
• The amount of carbon sequestered in products in use is increasing because…– Some products remain in use for long times
– More products are made every year due to population growth and increasing standards of living
• As more carbon is accumulated in products, more is kept out of the atmosphere
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The resultsThe resultsSize of pool of carbon in Products in Use- Tonnes of carbon in products in use -
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,000,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Increasing at
1.2 %/year
Production statistics from FAO database.
Amounts taken out of service each year are
based on IPCC factors.
The resultsThe results
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Net growth in carbon in Products in Use- Tonnes of carbon increase per year -
2000 to 2005: Average net growth = 55.4 million tonnes/yr
Equivalent to 203 million tonnes CO2 / yr
Uncertainty is medium.
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Carbon in products in landfillsCarbon in products in landfills
• Landfill mass balance
– IPCC approach and default assumptions
• Some discarded forest
products are landfilled
• Estimate from products-in-use calculations and
regional waste data
The resultsThe resultsSize of pool of carbon in Products in Landfills- Tonnes of carbon in products in landfills -
-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Increasing at
2.4 %/year
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The resultsThe resultsNet growth in carbon in Products in Landfills
- Tonnes of carbon increase per year -
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2000 to 2005: Average net growth = 92 million tonnes/yr
Equivalent to 337 million tonnes CO2 / yr
Uncertainty is medium
The Sequestration PictureThe Sequestration Picture
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-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
10
6 T
on
ne
s C
O2
Eq
uiv
. p
er
yr
Managed Forests Products in use Products in
landfills
???? ??
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Putting the pieces of the profile togetherPutting the pieces of the profile together
Value chain emissions are largely offset by sequestration
Dire
ct
Purchas
ed
Power Lan
dfill
Met
hane
Transp
ort
Manufacturingemissions
Man
aged
Forest
s
Product
s
in u
se Product
s
in la
ndfills
10
6
10
6
The pieces of the profileThe pieces of the profile
-- Direct emissions Direct emissions -- manufacturingmanufacturing
-- Indirect emissionsIndirect emissions
* Purchased power * Purchased power -- manufacturingmanufacturing
* Transport (assuming are indirect)* Transport (assuming are indirect)
* Methane from products in landfills* Methane from products in landfills
•• EmissionsEmissions
-- ForestsForests
-- Products in useProducts in use
-- Products in landfillsProducts in landfills
•• Carbon Carbon
sequestrationsequestration
-- Biomass energyBiomass energy
-- CHPCHP
-- RecyclingRecycling
-- Substitution effectsSubstitution effects
•• Avoided Avoided
emissionsemissions
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The pieces of the profileThe pieces of the profile
-- Biomass energyBiomass energy
-- CHPCHP
-- RecyclingRecycling
-- Substitution effectsSubstitution effects
•• Avoided Avoided
emissionsemissions
Avoided emissions associated with the use of biomass energy
Avoided emissions associated with the use of biomass energy
• What are the GHG emissions
avoided via the use of biomass
fuels?
– Alternative scenario = industry uses current fossil fuel mix to satisfy all energy needs
– Would result in GHG emissions increasing by 175 million tonnes CO2 per year
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Avoided emissions associated with use of CHP
Avoided emissions associated with use of CHP
• What are the GHG
emissions avoided via
the use of CHP?
– Alternative scenario = industry generates none of its own power but purchases all it needs
– Would result in indirect GHG emissions increasing by 94 million tonnes CO2 per year
Avoided emissions associated with recycling paper
Avoided emissions associated with recycling paper
• Estimates are very dependent on many parameters that are highly variable from one region
to another and not known for many regions
• Not possible to derive global estimate of avoided emissions associated with paper recycling
– May be possible to estimate this
effect for a specific region
– Benefits will vary by region
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Avoided emissions due to substitution effects
Avoided emissions due to substitution effects
• Substitution effects are very product-specific and site-specific
• Not possible to derive global estimate of avoided emissions associated with all substitution effects
– May be possible to estimate
this effect for a specific product substitution in a specific region
– Wood based building materials
The Avoided Emissions PictureThe Avoided Emissions Picture
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
To
nn
es C
O2 E
qu
iv. p
er
yr
Biomass
energy
CHP Recycling Substitution
?? ?? ?? ??
10
6
318
Putting the pieces of the profile togetherPutting the pieces of the profile together
Value chain
emissions are largely offset by sequestration
Avoided emissions provide
additional benefits
Dire
ct
Purchas
ed
Power Lan
dfill
Met
hane
Transp
ort
Manufacturingemissions
Man
aged
Forest
s
Product
s
in u
se Product
s
in la
ndfills
Bio
mas
s
Fuels
CHP
Rec
yclin
g
Substitu
tion
Effect
s
10
6
10
6
10
6
How do we expect this profile to change?How do we expect this profile to change?
• Direct emissions
– Reduced intensity offset
by increased production
Absolute
Emissions
Emissions
Intensity0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Europe - 1990 to 2004
Absolute
EmissionsEmissions
Intensity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Japan - 1990 to 2004
Absolute
EmissionsEmissions
Intensity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Canada - 1990 to 2004
Absolute
EmissionsEmissions
Intensity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
U.S. - 1991 to 2002
Absolute
Emissions Emissions
Intensity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Australia - 1990 to 2004
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How do we expect this profile to change?
How do we expect this profile to change?
• Indirect emissions from purchased power
– Uncertainties regarding activities in the power sector
– Increased use of CHP to reduce electricity purchases
– Interaction between steam demand and power production
– It seems possible that indirect emissions may increase, but more slowly than production
How do we expect this profile to change?
How do we expect this profile to change?
• Transport-related emissions
– Increased globalization
– Migration of production
capacity to sites more distant from markets
– Transport-related
emissions are likely to
become a more
important element of the industry’s profile
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How do we expect this profile to change?
How do we expect this profile to change?
• Methane emissions from landfills– Emissions are decreasing (CH4 capture, recycling)– Should become less important part of profile
– Importance of public policies on recycling and landfill design
How do we expect this profile to change?
How do we expect this profile to change?
• Sequestration
– Extension of sustainable forestry
practices suggests that industry-managed forests will continue to be,
at worst, a net zero contributor to
emissions
– The carbon impacts of establishing
new forests will depend on previous land use
– Carbon storage in products and
landfills will be an increasingly
important element of the industry’s profile
321
ConclusionsConclusions• The global forest product industry’s value chain emissions
are largely offset by sequestration– Several different types of avoided emissions provide further benefits
• Manufacturing-related emissions are important– Can be expected to be constant or grow more slowly than output
• Transport emissions are a small part of the global profile– But will be increasingly important
• Landfill methane is very important to the global profile– But is expected to be less important over time
• Sequestration, especially in products, is a very important part of the industry’s profile– It will almost certainly become increasingly important over time
• Continued progress will depend on appropriate public policies, especially policies that…– Keep used products out of landfills and reduce methane emissions
– Provide incentives for CHP and access to “green” power markets
– Facilitate capital turnover
– Ensure adequate supplies of biomass as raw material and fuel
