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The European Commission’s
science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
'Bottleneck' materials for the
deployment of low-carbon
technologies in the EU
Dr. Vangelis Tzimas
Deputy Head of Unit
Knowledge for the Energy Union
23 February 2017, Brussels
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The EU Raw Materials Initiative (RMI) Critical raw materials list
Securing reliable and undistorted access of certain raw materials is
of growing concern within the EU and across the globe
20 'critical raw materials' for the whole EU economy (2014 analysis)
CRITICALITY
MATRIX - 2014
Supply
ris
k
Economic importance
3
1 BEV battery:
9.5 kg Li
5.6 kg Co
29 kg Graphite
1 PHEV battery:
3 kg Li
2 kg Co
10 kg Graphite
4
EU resilience to materials supply a Low Carbon Technology deployment perspective
Bottlenecks
• Increasing material demand
• Competition - sectors and countries
• Concentration of supply
• Geopolitical risk
• Environmental constraints
• Geological/production constraints
• Import dependency (raw materials)
• Manufacturing capacity dependency
Mitigation measures
Access to new resources:
- EU production
- Trade agreements
EU manufacturing capacities
Recycling
Substitution
5
New JRC study on bottleneck materials for Wind, PV and EVs: 2030 timeframe
15 materials screened …
Batteries Lithium Cobalt Graphite
Electric motors Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium
Turbines Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium
Blades Composites (CFC) (criticality expected on the manufacturing side rather than raw material side)
CIGS
PV Modules Silicon Silver
Copper Indium Gallium Selenium
Cadmium Tellurium
CdTe
c-Si
6
EU resilience for wind technology - 2015
Downstream
(processed materials/components/assembly)
Upstream (mining/refining)
Nd, Pr, Dy
CFC
CFC
Nd, Pr, Dy
Wind Wind
7
Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly)
Upstream (mining/refining)
Ag
Si
Si
Ag
Photovoltaic Photovoltaic
In
In
EU resilience for PV technology - 2015
8
Downstream (processed materials/components/assembly)
Upstream (mining/refining)
Co graphite
Electric vehicles Electric vehicles
Li
Li, Co Nd, Pr, Dy graphite
Nd, Pr, Dy
EU resilience for EV technology - 2015
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JRC methodology
EU resilience assessment
Upstream dimension
(D1)
Downstream dimension
(D2)
D1.1 Material demand
D1.2 Investment potential
D1.3 Stability of supply
D1.4 Reserves depletion
D1.5 Import reliance
D1.6 Supply adequacy
D1.7 Recycling
D1.8 Substitution
D2.1 Supply chain dependency
D2.2 Purchasing potential
D2.3 Material cost impact
Materials supply chain
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Upstream Dimension (D1)
Dow
nstr
eam
Dim
ensio
n (D
2)
• Boosting EU raw
materials production
• Recycling
• Substitution
Resilience chart
Mitigation measures
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Wind technology
current situation
• Today the EU is highly vulnerable to supply chain bottlenecks for rare earths used for magnets in wind turbines
• High resilience for carbon fibre composites (CFCs)
Nd Dy Pr
CFC
Wind technology - current situation
12
Wind technology 2030
Nd Dy Pr
CFC
Nd Dy Pr
CFC
Recycling X
Substitution X
EU RM production X
Recycling
Substitution
EU RM production
Wind technology - 2030
13
PV technology
current situation
No strong concerns for PV materials!
In
Ag Si
Cu
Ga
Se
Cd
Te
PV technology - current situation
14
PV technology 2030
In
Ag Si
Cu
Ga
Se
Cd
Te In Ag
Si
Cu
Ga
Se
Cd
Te
Recycling X
Substitution X
EU RM production X
Recycling
Substitution
EU RM production
PV technology - 2030
15
Electric Vehicles
516 2528 831
13313
24941
65226
120416
21450
39599
Cobalt Graphite Lithium Cobalt Graphite Lithium
2015 2030
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
EU
de
ma
nd
(to
nn
es)
Values 2015
ERERT* scenario 2030
Tech 3** scenario 2030
Materials demand in LIB for electric vehicles
* ERERT - European Roadmap Electrification of Road Transport
** Tech 3 - EC project: "EU transport GHG: Routes to 2050"
BEV PHEV
60000 90000
1.5 mil. 2.3 mil.
2.4 mil. 5.6 mil.
EV market and materials demand
16
Lithium Global Lithium production
17
Cobalt Global Cobalt production (refined)
18
Global Graphite production
19
Supply chain dependency for EVs
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• The demand for Li, Co and graphite for EV may increase 25 times even under a conservative deployment scenario. Under more optimistic deployment scenario the demand might rise up to 45 times!
• The EU is heavily dependent on import of all three raw materials.
• The EU is strongly dependent on manufacturing capacities downstream: some limited electrode materials production and no cell manufacturing in the EU.
Battery materials: Key messages
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EV technology
current situation
• Rare earths in magnets for electric traction motors and graphite for rechargeable batteries are at risk of supply
• Lithium and cobalt: borderline
Nd Dy Pr
C
Li Co
EV technology - current situation
22
EV technology 2030
Li, Co, C
Nd Dy Pr Nd Dy Pr
Li Co
C
Recycling X
Substitution X
EU RM production X
Recycling
Substitution
EU RM production
EV technology - 2030
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The EU is vulnerable to supply bottlenecks of several key materials
needed in wind power, photovoltaic and electric vehicle technologies.
Unless mitigation measures are taken, the EU resilience to potential
supply issues will deteriorate by 2030.
Conclusions
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Thank you! Thank you!