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Perpetual Hanger for Information Bandwidth, Social Networking and Communication's Business Evolution
Presentation at University of Novi Sad Novi Sad, 10th Sept 2008
Dr Dragan BoscovicSenior Director, Wireless Systems and NetworksARTC, Motorola Inc
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Broadband CommunicationSnap Shot of Broadband Adoption Rate in USA
% o
f Tot
al U
S H
ouse
hold
s
27%
30%34%
39%
43%46% 45%
41%
37%
31%
26%
20%
66%69% 70% 71% 72% 72%
74%74%73%72%71%68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Dial Households
Broadband Households
Total Internet Households
PC Households
Source: Yankee Group 2004
Broadband Penetration
Exceeds Dial-up
Question: This is happening right now! Where do I put my R&D money? What are products and services that are to be in demand in next 3-5 years?
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Technology Trends Captured by Simple Laws
Motor Control Unit2001: 100 MFlopsProcessor: 13 €
Cray 1: 1976100 MFlops13 Mio €
Moore's Law; states that the number of transistors on a chip, or its processing speed, will double every 18 to 20 months.
Metcalfe's Law; simply put, it says that the value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of its users.
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
General Impatience … … or Thirst for Knowledge
Seconds
Months
Tim
e pe
ople
are
will
ing
(nee
d) t
o w
ait
Dis
tanc
e Pe
ople
are
will
ing
(nee
d) to
trav
el
Leagues
Steps
Source: The changing nature of telecommunications/information infrastructure
Published by National Academies Press, 1995
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
History of Communications ….. … History of Innovations
Language - verbal communication 100000 years ago Not innovation rather an achievement
Writing came into use 5000 – 6000 years ago The greatest invention of all time It enables learning and knowledge transfers
Gutenberg Press revolutionized book printing in 1450 First newspapers 1605
Photography 1839 Telephone 1876 Phonograph 1888 Moving Picture 1891 Radio 1912
Vacuum Tube makes transmission of sound possible in 1906 first radio station in San Jose, CA
TV 1926 Zworykin invents iconoscope and kinescope three years earlier John L. Baird demonstrates television in London
Satellite, Computer and Solid State Electronics 1945, 1946, 1947 Personal Computer 1975
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We live in an Information Age
• Modern communication is most defined by introduction of Personal Computer in 1975 and Internet service in 1979
• These two innovations are mostly responsible for democratization of modern communication by enhancing convenience, affordability and utility and generating a whole new concept of Computer Mediated Communication (CMC).
• Technology is expanding at an ever accelerating rate:– Telephony took 75 years to reach 50 million users– Radio 38– Television 13– Internet 4
Source: The Story of Human CommunicationWilbur Schramm, Harper & Raw Publishers 1988
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Society evolves with Communication Technology … and vice versa
• Distance is disappearing as a factor in the cost of communications. • Coupled with the sense of “presence” that new technologies allows,
this enables real sense of telecommuting! • Cities no longer dominate the economic landscape. • Communication Technology Redefines Social Networking
– 55% of Internet users say their email exchanges have improved their connections to family members (Pew, 2000, p. 7)
– 42% of college students use the Internet primarily to communicate socially (Jones, 2002)
– 90% of teens using IM use it to ‘‘stay in touch’’ with geographically distant friends or friends not in their own school (Lenhart et al., 2005)
– 20% of teens have asked someone out using IM, and 19% have broken up with someone using IM (Lenhart et al., 2005)
Source: Preliminary Development of a Model and Measure of Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC) Competence Dr. Brian H. Spitzberg, School of CommunicationSan Diego State University
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Ad hocWiFi
BlueTooth
IR
FemtoCell
Wired LAN
WLAN
Cable
My Devices
- inside & outside the home
Cable
DSL
FTTH
WiBB
Satellite
Growth of Distributed / P2P ApplicationsLeveraging above trends
Explosion of Personal ContentAnd Contextual Information
Increased Capabilities of Edge DevicesProcessing Power, StorageEmbedded Networking
Increased Bandwidth of Access NetworksWired and Wireless
Growth of Home NetworkingMultiple Devices Networked
Photos
Movies
Music
Data
Edge NetworksCurrent Trend in Communication Networks
Ever Increasing Complexity for End UserDifferent technologies / interfaces – little interoperabilityUnable to easily & securely access, share, manage content
Unmet need for simplification, integration, management
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Edge Networksstructuring problem space and learning from the nature
Decentralized network topologies create increased complexity and stress the need for self-organization to simplify interaction and enhance experience .
• Leverage Diverse Networks• E2E connectivity across
networks of different scale, coverage, technology
• manage complexity ; device & network configuration
• access to resources across administrative / policy domains
• locate, join, and orchestrate resources
• compose new services
Connection
Security & Management
Composition
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
SDP
ApplicationServers / Enablers
Access 5 U
NetworkResources
Access 5 U
NetworkResources
Core
Edge NetworksCritical Components
Edge Gateways
Web Cloud Computing
(APIs, Web Datasets, Component platforms)
Device Management
BackEnd Servers
PAN
wLAN/LAN
SensorNets
EdgeDevices
Mobile Devices
Service Delivery Platforms
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Connectivity Resources(heterogeneous networks)
Connectivity Abstraction & Optimization Layer
Session & Address Virtualization Abstraction Layer(group formation / composition & workflows)
Computing, Storage and A/V Resources
Administration:
Policies on Security,Privacy and Asset UsageAcross domains
Context sensing
Applications Domain
Asset Virtualization Abstraction Layer
Context Aggregation& analysis
Networking Middleware Interface
AdministratorInterfaces
Composition / orchestration engine
API
Value to the Network OperatorOffload / redirect / optimize trafficAddress scalability issuesAddress performance issues Reduce cost, time to deploy new apps
Value to the End UserRicher, more personalized user experiencesSimplified use, better management of devices,
contentImproved access to / sharing of content, information
Edge NetworksLogical Architecture and business proposition
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Internet
Home B
Cellular
PSTN
OperatorAAA, Presence,
NAT Traversal, etc
• ECONS HGW is an IP-based FMC home gateway • SIP server, B2BUA, VoIP gateway, NAT traversal
client, AAA client• Performs call routing and session mobility
between IP, cellular and POTS devices• Leverages distributed P2P overlay architecture
managed by operator
Home A
ECONSHGW
• Voice/video call• Dynamic routing to preferred user devices• Seamless session between user devices • N-way voice call via ECONS HGW• 2-stage dialing
• Data/multimedia services• “Follow-me” TV service• DLNA-based media sharing
DVB-TReceiver FXSFemtocell
ADSLCable
FXO
Ethernet & 802.11
SIPTelephony
POTSTelephony
CellularTelephony
BroadcastTV
IP/Cable TV& Internet
HomeContent
ECONS HGWConfig-Control
POTSTelephony
Edge Networks An Example: ECONS solution
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Edge Networks An Example: ECONS globally distributed testbed
PSTNLine
ExternalStorage
HomeTheatre
Camcorder
TV &Set top
POTSPhone
Linux MCE
SIPPhone
AV SoftPhone
WirelessRouter
BroadbandModem
Dual-modeCell Phone
Internet
GOOD Server
DDNSSTUN (& TURN)
Radius (AAA)
GOOD Data Center
Schaumburg (Intranet)
PolandParisSchaumburgChina / Beijing Demo
BostonPSTN GWECONS
User Devices
at any
location
Asterisk
Intranet
Bangalore Celestia Dev
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Complex Business EcosystemsFragmented Control and Vertically Integrated Services
Mobile
Carrier YCarrier X
Carrier M
Peering Links
Content Fixed
• Content Traverses Multiple Carriers as it is Distributed from Storage to End-users:
• Proponents of Net Neutrality argue that content and end-users should not be obstructed from accessing any content and information.
• Carriers argue that Connectivity between Content Providers and users should be based on business models.
• Carrier Y is building “Broadband” infrastructure and requires ROI for investment, The options of charging for content distribution are:
• Charge consumers (mobile and fixed)
• Charge Carrier X: Since Carrier X is charging the content Provider for Internet access
• Charge the Content Provider additional charges
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Business Ecosystems Evolve SlowlyOutpaced by Technology Evolution?
Now +• Apple sells one-hour TV shows on iTunes for $1.99
– 67% ($1.33) goes to the content rights owner– $0.25 for the network delivery (including caching)– Apple gets $0.41 for marketing and operations per video.
1922:• BBC based its initial business model on
– 10 shilling license fee– 10% royalty fee on the sale of receiving sets
Now -
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Summary
Evolution of Communication is not erratic and chaoticIt is driven by Societal and Business needsModern Communication very much dependant on TechnologyCurrent technology trends translate into a set of rules
History of Communication is a history of InnovationsSnap-shot of the present is not sufficient to “predict the present”Problem space is interdisciplinary
Communication interrelates Society , Technology and BusinessNature and Intensity of human interaction changes over the timeTechnology plays an important role but only if simple to use
Business ecosystem is very complex and competitive Vertical business models dominated early Comms servicesAggregation integrated both networks and services over past Over the Top focuses on services/experiences, agnostic approach to networks
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Back Up slidesFemtocell story: an example of innovative Edge Network technology
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Femtocell: Small BS inside your homeIssues to overcome:
Interference between WAN and femto cellsNetwork scalability, integration with cellular core Simple installation, self initializationMobility, QoS supportCost, under $100
Opportunities it creates:Easy support of FMC services
StandardHandset
Private
InternetExisting Mobile
Service Core(CS, PS, IMS)
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
Femto-subsystem reference architecture
Femto Access Point
Mobile device
Home GW
Femto GW
Femto Management System
FAP-MS FGW-MS
FL
Fa
SeGW
Access NetworkRadio
i/f
Fm Fg
CS core
PS core
Subscriber Databases
Fb-cs
Fb-ps
Fr
HPLMN Core Network
IMS coreFb-ims
HPLMN RAN
MOTOROLA and the Stylized M Logo are registered in the US Patent & Trademark Office. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Motorola, Inc. 2007
OA&M Network
RAN GatewayComponent Overview
Iu-PS
Wm
Iu-CS
D’
Internet &Broadband
RAN Gateway (RAN GW) Core NetworkEncrypted (IPSec) TunnelLicensed 3G
TR-069 SNMP
Radius
PS Core
CS CoreMSC
MSC
MSC
MSC
App Servers
Internet
IMS CoreSGSN/GGSN
HLR
RAN Gateway
IP Network Controller (INC)
Security Gateway
Media Gateway
Authentication and Access Control Server
Mass IPSec Tunnel Termination, Firewall and Authentication Services
Session Managementthat scales to 100K’s subscribers per shelf
High Capacity CS domain media conversion and
Signaling Gateway functions
NMSNBBS
AAA
Device Management that scales to millions
of FemtocellsNetwork Element
Management integrates with existing OA&M