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STATE OF ECONOMY
Presentation to Honourable PrimeMinister, Cabinet Members and Media
By
Minister for Finance, Revenue, EconomicAffairs, Statistics and Privatization
0
1st
January 2014
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SEQUENCE
OF
PRESENTATION1 Where we stood
a we ave onea. Budgetb. Austerity measuresc. Settlement of circular debt
d. IMF Program
f. Financing of energy projectsg. Prime Ministers new initiatives
. n a oni. Transparencyj. Islamic Banking
1
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SEQUENCE
OF
PRESENTATION3 Where we stand nowa. Incorporation of companies
b. Stock market performancec. Fiscal positiond. Filin of tax returns
e. Foreign remittances
f. Exchange rate.
4 Where we are heading
2
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WHERE
WE
STOOD
3
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WHERE
WE
STOOD(INJUNE2013)
o Growthrate
averaged
less
than
3%
in
the
lastfive earssi nificantl belowour
potential
o Inflationaveraged
around
12%
o ForeignExchange ReservesatUS$11 billion
inJune2013despitesignificantsupport
o CirculardebtofRs503 billionwascrippling
4
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WHERE
WE
STOOD(INJUNE2013)
continuouslyand
had
reached
12.6%
Tax GDPratiohaddeclinedto8.5%
Fiscaldeficitof201213wastocloseat
8.8% DebttoGDPratiohasincreasedinlastfive
yearsfrom52.6%ofGDPto62.7%
o Rs2.94trillionon30th June1999th
5
o
Rs
14.36
trillion
on
30
th
June
2013
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6
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BUDGET
PrimeMinistertookoathon5June2013
Governmentformedon7June2013
Budgetpresentedon12June2013
Fiscaldeficittargettedat6.3%for201314as
against8.2%
(with
provincial
surplus,
8.0%)
for
7
201213
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AUSTERITYMEASURES
Secretserviceexpendituresof32Ministries/
AutonomousBodiesceasedexceptISIandIB
DiscretionaryfundsforPrimeMinisterand
40%cutinPrimeMinisterOfficeand30%cut
inall
Ministries
/Divisions
current
8
savingof
around
Rs
40
billion
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AUSTERITYMEASURES
Workingofforeignmissionsreviewedand
beingrightsizedleadingtoannualsavingsof
Rs2billion
directedallMinistries/Divisionstoreviewfor
rationalizin their stren ths for the ur ose of
rightsizing
Fee/remunerationforgovernmentnominated
directorsin
PSEs
capped
at
Rs
600,000/
per
annum.Amountoverandabovewillbe
9
epos e n ogovernmen reasury
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AUSTERITYMEASURES
DutyfreeimportofluxurycarsforVVIPs
thatwas
banned
through
Budget
/Trade
dutyfree
import
of
cars
to
VVIPs
was
againallowedin200506.
However,the
old
ban
has
been
re
10
June2013
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CIRCULARDEBTNONPAYMENTHADRESULTEDINTO
SovereignguaranteesofGoPwerecalled/
nvo e
NineIPPs
had
gone
to
Supreme
Court
against
Interestcostforeachdayofdelay@14%(4%
+KIBOR)
amounting
to
Rs
67
billion
per
year
Foreigngovernmentswereagitatingdueto
nonpaymenttotheirnationalswhohad
s ares
sta esin
IPPs
Approximately1,700MWofpowerwasnot
12
Almostnil
industrial
growth
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CIRCULARDEBTSETTLEMENTOFCIRCULARDEBT
Governmentdecided
to
pay
in
60
days
as
perannouncementinannualbudgeton
12June2013
Circulardebt
was
cleared
in
less
than
45
days
Completeupdateddetailsofsettlement
placedon
Finance
Ministrys
website
(www.finance.gov.pk)
13
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ISSUANCEOFCURRENCYNOTES
surrender
1st Jul 30th
November
2013
Rs672billion Rs466billion Rs206billion
1st July 30th
November
Rs 614 billion Rs 408 billion Rs206billion
2012
14
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CIRCULARDEBT
BENEFITSOFSETTLEMENT
Increasedinvestors
confidence
Massivereductioninloadsheddingin
commercialanddomesticsector.Inthelast2
months
it
was
virtually
zero.
However,
due
ocana c osurean ec ne n y e
generation,someloadsheddinghasbecome
AgreementoffourIPPsforconversionfromfurnaceoiltocoalbasedwithin24months
16
wouldleadtosavingsandlowercostof
electricitygeneration
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CIRCULARDEBT
FINANCIALGAINTOTHECOUNTRY
circulardebt
was
not aid
billion
.
borneonPakistan
Investment Bonds
billion
.
(PIBs)
Annualnetgain/ Rs54.4billion
17
savings
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CIRCULARDEBT
REEMERGENCEOFCIRCULARDEBT
Toarrestitsreemergence:
o ProvisionofRs220billionsubsidymadein
o Rs101billionpaidtodate
today
o Reportedoutstandingamountisdueto
nonpayment
primarily
by
provinces
and
privateconsumers
18
o ns u ono e era us or e ngre
activatedin
consultation
with
provinces
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IMFPROGRAM
ForeignexchangereservesofUS$18.2
on nc u ng . onrece ve
underStandB Arran ementof2008
fromIMF)hadfallentoUS$11billion
whenPML(N)Governmentwasswornin
u
,
u
y
US$3.1billionwasstill a abletoIMF
19
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IMFPROGRAM
ExtendedFundFacility(EFF)ofUS$6.64billion
negotiatedin
September
2013
ore gnexc angereserves a ngonaccount
ofoverall
negative
inflows,
thereby
resulting
indeclineofforexreservesofUS$11billion
une
o
.
ecem er
20
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IMFPROGRAM
WhywechoseIMF:
o Aswas enerall redictedinternationall that
Pakistan
will
go
in
default
by
early
2014,
one
optionwastodeclaredefaultandgotoParisClub.
developmentpartnersi.eWB,ADB,IDB,OPIC,IFC,
JICAand
others,
would
have
dealt
with
Pakistan
resultingintonofinancingofdevelopment
projectslikeDasu,Jamshoro,NeelumJhelum,
transmissionlines KarachiCircularRailwa
motorways,energy
etc
o Asanhonourablecountry,wedecidedtohonour
21
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IMFPROGRAM Newprogramshallnotaddtothepresentpublic
debtburden
n ows . on esst ant eout ows
(US$3.1
billion)
during
current
financial
year
moneytopayoffinstallmentsofolddebts
whichhad
become
due
Majorpurposewasalsotosendasignalto
internationalcommunitythatPakistanasa
honouritspastinternationalcommitments,
undertheleadershi ofPrimeMinisterNawaz
22
Sharif
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IMFPROGRAM
Current ro ramismainl homedriven,
emanating
from
PML(N)
Manifesto
on
the
basisofwhichGeneralElections2013were
contested
FollowingIMFdocumentswereplacedon
(www.finance.gov.pk) on4th Sep2013
o Memorandum on Economic and FinancialPoliciesfor2013/14 2015/16(MEFP)
o TechnicalMemorandumofUnderstanding23
(TMU)
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IMFPROGRAM
Havin seenourbud etar measures
andeconomic
reforms,
positive
signals
forthecountr are:
o ReengagementofWorldBank/ADB/
IDB/JICA
and
others
o OverseasPrivateInvestment
Corporation(OPIC)andInternational
FinanceCorporation
(IFC)
have
tripled
theirallocations/creditlinesforPakistan
24
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IMFPROGRAM
Stan ar & P r ha iv n a ta l
outlookon
Pakistan
o OverseasInternationalChambersof
ommercera se ts n ex or a stan
from 34to + 2
25
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PLANFORBUILDINGFOREIGNEXCHANGE
RESERVESIN
CALENDAR
YEAR
2014
World Bank IDA-16 US$ 1 billion
Asian Development Bank US$ 400 million
ommerc a an s
(US$ 525 m - rcvd US$ 100 m)
m on
Islamic Develo ment Bank US 730 million
( 750 m rcvd 200 m)
Global Rupee bond / IFC US$ 1 billion
26
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Contd/2
Euro Bond floatation US$ 1 billion
Remittance-based bondfloatation
US$ 1 billion
Shares disinvestment through
stock market
US$ 1 billion
Etisalat (pending for 7 years) US$ 800 million
uc on o spec rum cences(March 2014) (Up to US$ 2
. on
27
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Contd/3
Recovery of pending
US$ 1.54 billion
Oct 12 Mar 13: US$ 798 malread billed
Apr 13- Sep 13 - US$ 750 m
(billin in rocess)
TOTAL (Planned additions)
during 2014
US$ 10.095 billion
Notes:
1.Aboveplannedfinancingitemsmaybereplacedorsubstitutedbysomeother
alternatives
28
2.ExpectedincreaseinexportearningsthroughGSPPlusstatusbyEuropeanUnionof
US$
1.5
billion
is
not
included
in
above
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FOREXRESERVESPROJECTIONS
Reserves as on 1stJanuary US$ 8.406 billion
Add : Planned additions US$ 10.095 billion
during calendar year 2014
Less : Pro ecte current
account deficit
US 2.480 on
Net Projected Reserves as on
31st December 2014
US$ 16.021 billion
29
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PROJECT&TRADEFINANCE
FACILITIES(INPROGRESS) -
Hydel)
Asian Development Bank US$ 900 million
- .
30
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Contd/2
.
ii. US$ 1.5 billion (for 3ears
Saudi Fund for
Development (SFD)
US$ 125 million
JICAs indicative financing
for KCR PMs meetin with
US$ 2 billion
Low cost 40 ears with 10
Japanese PM at NY,followed by FMs meeting
year moratorium)
31
with Japanese Dy PM / FM
in October 2013)
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Contd/3
investors
billion to US$ 3 billion
OPIC country line for
private investors
Enhanced from US$ 500
million to US$ 1.5 billion
32
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FINANCINGSTATUSOFENERGY
PROJECTSRe-activation of Nandipur project Additional 425 MW
(already done) (525 MW if on gas)
K2-K3 projects (Rs 6 billion out of 2,117 MW
Jamshoro coal power project (US$
900 m approved by ADB)
1,320 MW
CASA-1000 (US$ 200 m
Pakistans share already arranged)
1,000 MW
Wind power (Financed by OPIC
and private sector)
500 MW approx
33
Energy park at Gadani (under
implementation by MoW&P)
6,600 MW
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Contd/2
Dasu hydropower project (WB 4,600 MW
financing of US$ 700 m in progress)
Diamer-Bhasha dam (with 8 MAF 4,500 MW
indigenous resources)
Accelerated work on Neelum-Jhelum 969 MWpower project (financing in place)
Current generation 14,000 MW
approxTOTAL 36,131 MW
a rox
34
Note:Inadditiontoabove,Bunjihydropowerproject(understudy)
7,100MW
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PRIMEMINISTERSNEWTAX
INCENTIVES
Nonfilers
of
tax
returns
as
well
as
dormant
NTN
holderstoavailconcessionby28February2014
Forinvestment
scheme,
commercial
operation
datefixedonorbefore30th June2016toavail
ncen ves
un er
e
pac age
or
n us r a
growth
35
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PRIMEMINISTERSYOUTHPROGRAMSTATUS
OF
SCHEMES
ANNOUNCED
IN
BUDGET
ON
12
JUNE2013
PMs
Fee
Reimbursement
Scheme
for
Less
DevelopedAreasImplemented
s out us ness oans Underimplementation
PMsScheme
for
Provision
of
Laptops Approved
by
ECNEC
on
31st Dec2013
PMsInterestFreeLoansScheme Inprogress
PMsYouth
Training
Scheme In
progress
36
s ou s eve opmen c eme nprogress
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INFLATION
Mainreasons:
domesticPOL
prices
(subsidy
approved
by
PM
forfirst7monthstill31st Jan14amountstoRs
17.6billion)
II. Non
payment
of
circular
debt
of
Rs
503
billionIII. Revenues ort a n 1 13
Budgeted: Rs2,381billion
,
Shortfall:
Rs
435billion
IV. Profiteerin andhoardin
37
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CARETAKERSUMMARIES
V. Summarytoincreaseelectricitytariff:
o For15
months,
despite
NEPRA
awards,
therewasnoincreaseduetopolitical
o Caretakersdecidedtoincreasethe
electricitytariff
38
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CARETAKERSUMMARIES
SummaryforPMonrationalizationof
w r tariff :
1 Ma 2 1 m v M W&P
o 16May2013 endorsementby
Financeo 17May2013 approvalbycaretaker
PM
Decisiona rovedb PMwithheld
39
andnotimplemented
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CARETAKERSUMMARIES
.
,
.
40
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CARETAKERSUMMARIES
SummaryforPMcontaining20
proposa so regar ng ax revenue
measures:
o 16May2013 MovedbyFinance
o ay pprova ycare a ero 23May2013 Presidentdeferredthe
ec s on
an
re urne
e
summary
41
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INFLATIONTREND
Coreinflationexcludingfoodandenergycurrently
declinin .SPIalsofallin inlast5weeks
eek ended on SPI
Percentagechangeoverpreviousweek
07/11/2013 1.20
13/11/2013 0.4621/11/2013 0.95
28/11/2013 -0.54
- .
12/12/2013 -0.82
-
43
26/12/2013 -0.22
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DECLININGPRICESEXAMPLES
Commodity Peak Price / kg Price / kg % change
(with dates) (on 26th Dec 2013)
Tomatoes 122
(7th
Nov 2013)
42 -65.87
Onions 607th Nov 2013
39 -35.19
Potatoes 71 32 -54.3
44
(21st Nov 2013)
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WE BELIEVE IN TRANSPARENCY
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WEBELIEVEINTRANSPARENCY
PML(N)Governmentpostedalldetailsofthe
thenIMFProgramonwebsitein199899
CurrentIMFPro ram laced rom tl on
FinanceMinistryswebsiteon4Sep2013 the
dayitwasapproved
Fulldetailsofrecipientsandsourcesof
financingrelatedtosettlementofcirculardebt
46
placedonFinanceMinistryswebsite
WE BELIEVE IN TRANSPARENCY
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WEBELIEVEINTRANSPARENCY
PakistanBureauofStatistics(PBS)hasbeen
madeautonomous
Tillrecentl NationalAccountswere re ared
annually
Toprovideinformationonregularbasis,
NationalAccountswillnowbeprepared
quarterly
47
WE BELIEVE IN TRANSPARENCY
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WEBELIEVEINTRANSPARENCY
uarterl NationalAccountsfor1st uarter
endingon30th September2013were
released
on
11th
December
2013
Quarterlyaccountsfor2nd quarterending
on31st December2013willbepresented
48by
31st
March
2014
WE BELIEVE IN TRANSPARENCY
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WEBELIEVEINTRANSPARENCY
Rebasingwaspreviouslydoneatdifferent
intervals
198081,19992000and200506
PolicydecisioninPBSGoverningCouncil
Nextrebasingwillbein201516andthenin
49
202526
ISLAMIC BANKING
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ISLAMICBANKING
WorldIslamicBankingmarketcurrently
tan at S 1.6 trilli n
SteeringCommittee
for
promotion
of
I lamic Bankin f rm
Committeewillreviewpreviousreports,
formulatecom rehensive
olic
frameworkforIslamicFinancialSystem,
su est racticalste stoim lement
Shariahbased
financial
system
etc
Firstmeetin heldon19December2013
50
ReportexpectedbyendDecember2014
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51
INCORPORATION OF
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INCORPORATIONOF
COMPANIES
Incorporationofnewcompanieshas
November2013
as
compared
same
periodin2012
2,597dormant
companies
have
re
52
STOCK MARKET
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STOCKMARKET
11th May 26th Dec Growth
KSE index 19,916 25,370 27.38%
Market Rs 5.27 Rs 6.16 22.1%capitalization
(Rs)
trillion trillion
Marketcapitalization US 50.0billion US 57.0billion 11.1%
53
FISCAL POSITION
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FISCALPOSITION(AS
ON
30
NOVEMBER)
1stJuly 30th
November 2013
1stJuly 30th
November 2012
Growth
FBR Rs 792 billion Rs 679 billion 17%
deficit
.
(Rs 570 billion)
.
(Rs 690 billion)
54
FILING OF TAX RETURNS
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FILINGOFTAXRETURNS
1stJuly 16th
December
1stJuly 16th
December
% increase
2013 2012
tax returns
filed
55
FOREIGN REMITTANCES
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FOREIGNREMITTANCES
1stJuly 30thNovember 2013
1stJuly 30thNovember 2012
Growth
US$ 6.4 billion US$ 5.9 billion 7%
56
EXCHANGE RATE
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EXCHANGERATE Speculative
activities
in
the
market
mainly
behind
RupeeDollarexchangeratevolatility
Exchangerate
has
already
improved
from
around
Rs
110.90toRs105.50inlastfewweeks
Aforesaidimprovementinexchangeratehasresultedin
debtofPakistan
Withexpected
foreign
exchange
inflows
in
near
future
andotherappropriatemeasuresbySBP,thePakRupee
57
sexpec e o ur ers reng en n e ays ocome,
inshaAllah
GDPQUARTERLYGROWTHRATE
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Sector / Industry Change (%)
1
st
July 30
th
September 2013 1
st
July 30
th
September 2012
Agriculture 2.5 2.7
n us ry . .
Services 5.7 2.9
Total 5.0 2.9
58
Note:Withinindustrialgrowth,largescalemanufacturingregistered
growthof6.8%asagainst0.4%lastyear
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59
ROADMAP
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ROADMAP
3YEAR
MEDIUM
TERM
TARGETS
7% .
Tax/GDPratiotorisefrom8.5%to13%
to4%ofGDP
Forei nexchan ereservestobeincreased
toaround
US$
20
billion
Publicdebttobereducedtobelow60%of
60
GDPasperstatutoryrequirement
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WITHALLAHS
BLESSINGS
e onour,w atwesay
Wedeliver,
what
we
promise
ewor ns encean wa t61
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62