Presentation by Jan de Leeuw

“3rd CRAM Meeting”RCRMD Nairobi, Kenya

Remote sensing applications in support of drought early warning and NRM in rangelands

ILRI and RS in rangelands

• ILRI - livestock and rangeland research

• Focus on livelihoods livestock keepers– Poverty and vulnerability reduction – Enhancing food security – Environmental sustainability

• Research aiming at impact• Involving users of information early stage

ILRI and RS in rangelands

• Drought management– Review effectiveness drought management– Livestock population dynamics – Livestock insurances–

• Natural resource management – Payment and accounting ecosystem services – Watershed management

Risk in the ASALs

• Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) residents live in harsh and volatile environments

• High level of risk:– Drought, Disease, Conflict

• Low coping capacity:– Infrastructure deficient– Few alternative opportunities

• ASALs 70% national livestock herd, valued 0.7 Billion US $

Impact Drought on Livelihoods

Livestock is both the principal asset and source of income for the vast majority of ASAL residents

Proportion of total income by source

Impact of Drought on Livelihoods

• Drought single greatest cause of livestock mortality

Livestock mortality by cause

Review of livestock interventions1.Severe drought in 2008 – 2009

2.Kenya has drought management system and policy

3.Relief focuses on people and on livestock

4.EU commissioned review of responses to drought targeted at livestock

Kenya and drought

Kenya facing recurrent drought

National drought management system (DMS)

1. Drought management policies2. Early warning system

1. Monthly early warning bulletins 3. Contingency plan and fund 4. Coordination and response structure

Decision making drought management interventions

Normal

Alert

Recovery

Emergency

DMCEWBDSSwhat to do

Pastoral lands and livelihoods

Information

DCF

Relief

Approach study

1.Review available early warning data

2.Survey of stakeholders in six districts

1. Interviews of Gov, NGO’s and communities

2.What interventions and when

3.Timeliness, appropriateness and effectiveness and involvement of stakeholders

3.Review triggers for release of contingency funds

Characterization drought

NDVI– Long term

monthly data 1982 – 2009

– Moving average 12 months NDVI

Findings – – Severe drought

in South Kenya– Above normal

conditions North

Timing of interventions

• Early warning (EWB) alarm stage

• Districts without RS drought evidence given highest alarm

• Social indicators higher weight than state of rangeland

Insight causes and impacts of drought

Rainfall in E Africa related to ENSO

Since Aug 201o severe La Nina phase

La Nina associated with poor short rains

Repetitive drought

• Droughts differ in depth and duration

• Droughts not regular recurrence

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

1980 1990 2000 2010

ND

VI

Year

Livestock and repetitive drought

• Aerial survey data Kadjiado

• Livestock biomass relates to 5 year average NDVI

• NDVI now at historic low

• Collapse livestock populations

Effectiveness of drought management strategies

• Drought management strategies assume drought to be regular and short

• RS record learns that droughts differ in depth, duration and repeat time

• Strategies effective during short lived and moderate drought may be ineffective during deep, prolonged and repetitive drought

Index Based Livestock Insurances (IBLI)

• Livestock mortality imposes costs on pastoralists

• Insurance can mitigate this risk

• Conventional insurance not viable in remote areas - high transactions costs

• IBLI makes payment to policy holders based on external “index” that triggers payouts

Need for a measure that is:

1. Highly correlated with livestock mortality2. Reliably and cheaply available3. Historically available

NDVI + livestock mortality data Response function to calculate risk and

premium

The INBI Index

Performance of Predicted Livestock Mortality Index

Temporal structure of IBLI contract and cumulative standardized NDVI

IBLI Product Design

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Period of continuing observation of NDVIfor constructing LRLD mortality index

LRLD season coverage SRSD season coverage

1 year contract coverage

Sale periodFor SRSD

Predicted SRSD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered

Period of NDVI observationsfor constructing SRSDmortality index

Prior observation of NDVI sincelast rain for LRLD season

Sale periodFor LRLD

Sale periodFor SRSD

Predicted LRLD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered

Prior observation of NDVI since last rainfor SRSD season

Short Rain Short Dry Long Rain Long Dry Short Rain Short Dry

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Period of continuing observation of NDVIfor constructing LRLD mortality index

LRLD season coverage SRSD season coverage

1 year contract coverage

Sale periodFor SRSD

Predicted SRSD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered

Period of NDVI observationsfor constructing SRSDmortality index

Prior observation of NDVI sincelast rain for LRLD season

Sale periodFor LRLD

Sale periodFor SRSD

Predicted LRLD mortality is announced.Indemnity payment is made if triggered

Prior observation of NDVI since last rainfor SRSD season

Short Rain Short Dry Long Rain Long Dry Short Rain Short Dry

Contract Sales Jan/Feb 2010

• Uptake by 6% and 2% of households • Small herd size (TLU) insured• Small size as business, need to grow• Lack of understanding of the product in Jan-Feb 2010

Sale period

Contracts sold

Total TLU

insuread

Average TLU

Insured

Total value of TLU insuread

(KSH)

Total value of premiums

(KSH)Jan-Feb

2010 1,979 5,965 3.0 89,475,000 3,494,513

Jan-Feb 2011 637 1,085 1.7 16,275,000 630,728

Development of insurance

• ILRI with insurer and reinsurer

• Commercial sustainability – reinsurance

• Social impacts – resilience livelihoods?

• Environmental impacts?

• RS data continuity

Natural resource management

• Livelihood approach to rangelands – What benefits do people derive from rangelands? – Importance rangelands to pastoralists and economy?

• Several activities to account for – benefits that people derive from rangelands– the ecosystem services that support these benefits

• Providing spatial information to support government and local communities

Mapping ecosystem services Ewaso Ng’iro catchment

• Mapping ecosystem services of the Ewaso Ng’iro catchment

• Purpose to support Ministry of North Kenya and Arid Lands

• Compiling atlas based on existing spatial information

Social indicators - poverty rates

Natural Resources - livestock

Competing claims and wildlife

Valuing services

•Valuation of ecosystem services •Based on mapping of services and economic information

Data availability and gaps

• Surprising how much data was available

• Specific gaps where RS could assist– Rangeland biomass production – Rangeland degradation – Rainfall estimates– Partitioning of water resources – Livestock surveys

Support discussion on water use in Ewaso catchment

• Many highland rivers discharge in drylands

• Discharge important to downstream users – Secure surface water and forage– Recharge of aquifers and wetlands

• Retention of agricultural water upstream deprives downstream communities from rivers’ benefits

• Synthesis of upstream downstream connectivity to support discussion among water use associations

The Ewaso Ng’iro catchment

Lorian Swamp

To Nairobi

Archer’s Post

Mt. Kenya

Upstream agriculture

Merti

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mo

nth

ly d

isch

arg

e (

m3

.s-1

)

Year

Abstractions and discharge at Archer’s

Monthly NDVI 1998 - 2010

Impact on vegetation biomass

• Significant relation water inflow and difference NDVI swamp and surroundings

• Outliers reflect local rains

Lorian Swamp

NDVI

Ewaso Ng’iro discharge and ecosystem services Lorian swamp

Water Ecosystem service Benefits

Surface-green

Livestock production Multiple uses

Wildlife conservation Tourism & public good

Domestic use Nutrition and hygiene

Livestock production Multiple uses

Wildlife conservation Tourism & public goods

Surface-blue

Fish production Food & cash

Irrigated crops Food & cash

Ground-blue

Domestic use Nutrition and hygiene

Livestock production Multiple uses 1

Vulnerability to abstractions of the benefits from river water

• Blue surface water – highly vulnerable

• Green water – highly vulnerable

• Groundwater recharge – low vulnerability

• Insight will be used in discussion between up and downstream water use associations

RS and policy

• Policy development messy process

• No regular pattern

• Policy cycle scheme phases in policy development

• Useful to help thinking function of remote sensing

IMPLEMENTPOLICY

POLICYFORMULATION

EVALUATE

CONTROL

PROBLEMRECOGNITION

Policy cycle - Example Drought Management

IMPLEMENTPOLICY

POLICYFORMULATION

EVALUATE

CONTROL

PROBLEMRECOGNITION

Problem – Social impacts of drought

Formulate drought management policy

Implement – policy instruments

Control

Evaluate

Agenda RS applications address problems in pastoral lands

• Institutional context of RS information provisioning

• Evaluate impact of RS data supply

• Develop new products – Methods livestock surveys – Insight livestock production and droughts – Rangeland biomass production and degradation – Rainfall and partitioning of water resources

International Livestock Research InstituteBetter lives through livestock

Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries

ILRI  www.ilri.org