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Looking Towards ASEAN Community 2015:
Constraints, Obstacles and Opportunities
By
Professor Dr.Surakiart SathirathaiFormer Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Foreign Affairs of ThailandDistinguished Scholar, Chulalongkorn University
Organized byInstitute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University
In cooperation withSiam Intelligence Unit (SIU)
April 21st, 2011Room 105, Maha Chulalongkorn Building,
Chulalongkorn University
I. Positive Developments1) The first time to have “Community” as the
target thus, being more visible in the world
radar screen.
2) The first time to have a roadmap of ASEAN
Community, i.e. to have 3 pillars ASC
AEC all with action plans
ASCC
3) There has been relatively concrete negotiation
on action plans and blueprint, many programs
are tangible, doable.
4) There have been FTAs between ASEAN and
other countries despite the fact that there is no
Trade Minister of ASEAN (ASEAN-China, ASEAN-
Japan etc.)
5) ASEAN activities have been more visible: in
economic field, tourism cooperation,
cultural, educational, youth activities, more
people to people contact under ASEAN
roof, and more media coverage about
ASEAN community target.
6) There have been attempts to create the
sense of community eg. ASEAN VISA,
ASEAN flags to fly with national flags at all
government buildings, and embassies.
7) More ASEAN stands on selected world
issues eg. Myanmar.
- Therefore open intra and extra ASEAN
opportunities in many fields as a large
market of almost 600 million people.
II. Constraints for Becoming
“ASEAN Community”1) There is a lack of the sense of ownership,
sense of participation and therefore, lack of
the sense of community in the heart and
mind of the people of ASEAN.
a) There is a lack of interactions among civil
societies.
For ASEAN
For Extra – ASEAN, Eg. Joint
research with
Dialogue partners, or
research on dialogue
partners’ strategies
towards ASEAN
b) There is a lack of people participation in the
ASEAN.
decision making process and in policy
and strategy formulation. Most of these
issues rest in the hand of bureaucrats,
politicians from the executive branch of
each country.
c) There are no common external policies.
- No common foreign policy – eg. 9/11, Iraq
- No common security policy – start a bit on
Malacca straits
- No common defense policy
- No common external ec. relations policy eg. no
Common External Tariff
- No common governance policy
- No harmonization of legal system eg. VAT.
Immigration law, Transportation Law etc.
d) Lack of “ASEAN Affairs Come First” principle
eg. Compare to EU
e) Lack of regular informal meetings among leaders,
ministers and policy makers from all branches of each
country (Speakers, MPs, Judges)
But, may be appropriate that ASEAN does not
have these common policies because, if so A
SEAN might have not been intact until today.
We, therefore, have a sense of community in
“ASEAN Way”.
2) ASEAN is too sensitive to outside pressure
Eg. Myanmar, responded to periodic outside
pressures rather than having ASEAN’s initiative on
roadmap for democracy and national reconciliation
in Myanmar.
3) Domestic Political Problems of Each Member
Thailand - could not organize ASEAN and EAS
summits in 2009
- could not detach bilateral issue
between Thailand and Cambodia from
ASEAN affairs. Eg. Sharp exchanges
through the press between two
leaders at the opening of ASEAN
summit in Hua-Hin
4) Lack of Confidence on the Progress for
Conflict Avoidance:
Confidence Building Preventive Diplomacy
Conflict Resolution
Aceh – positive
Myanmar - domestic affairs VS.
Roadmap for
Democracy, and Bangkok Process in
2003
Troika?
Role of ASEAN Chair?
Role of Friends of The Chair?
Shuttle Diplomacy?
Thailand VS Cambodia – Despite
Thailand’s repeated references to the
conflict as bilateral, the role of third party
is clearly seen.
— Shuttle diplomacy by Indonesian FM as
ASEAN Chair.
— Presence of ASEAN Chair at UNSC
— UNSC tasks ASEAN to implement ceasefire
— Almost unprecedented Special (emergency)
ASEAN FM meeting on Thailand – Cambodia
conflicts and agreement by both parties for
Indonesian observer team to implement
ceasefire.
— Meeting of bilateral GBC (later cancelled) and
JBC between Thailand and Cambodia In
Indonesia with good office and presence of
Indonesian FM as ASEAN Chairs.
— This is a test for conflict avoidance and
dispute resolution in ASEAN.
— If ASEAN attempt fails, this issue can be a
setback for ASEAN and can affect confidence
in ASEAN to resolve internal conflicts, thus
affecting confidence for ASEAN
community in 2015
5) Lack of or Little Intra – Regional Grouping Relations
ASEAN-SAARC ASEAN-EU
ASEAN-GCC ASEAN-PIF
ASEAN-NEPAD ASEAN-CARICOM
ASEAN and Sub-regional groupings in Africa,
Latin America.
Thus, no compelling force for ASEAN to get together and
formulate ASEAN strategy, position ad policies towards
other regional groupings.
6) Lack of Common Positions in Multi-Lateral Fora
- UN (UNSC, UNGA, Human Rights
Council, UNCTAD, etc)
- WTO
- APEC
- ASEM
- UNFCCC (Climate change)
The common positions (on even certain topics)
will raise consciousness of being a community.
7) Individual Country still has a High Sense of
“National Issue”
— Ec. – Reluctant to liberalize even
among ASEAN.
— Security – Domestic Affairs.
— Social/political issues eg. Labour,
Human Rights, Democracy,
etc. – Domestic affairs.
8) lack of Roadmap for ASEAN’s Asia Architecture
— Risk being influenced or led by
major powers.
— Risk losing ASEAN centrality, not to
be in the driver seat eg. ASEAN+3
ASEAN+8 (EAS), GMS, EAFTA, ACD.
— Unclear of how EAS, ACD could lead
to Asia community.
9) Need Further Focus on ASEAN Connectivity.
— Lack of relationship between land and sea
link to make all ASEAN participate in
ASEAN connectivity.
— Western Corridor, too slow and unclear to
make EWEC attractive to outsiders.
— Need much in depth understanding of
China’s strategy for Yunnan and Pan Beibu
Gulf Economic Cooperation which
focuses on Guangxi Zhuang to connect
with ASEAN.
Conclusion1) ASEAN + non ASEAN people must understand
that ASEAN community actually is “ASEAN
way Community”.
2) Certain problem may not be a problems but
rather ASEAN normal practice:
- Non-legalistic, non-adversarial society
- Step by step
But if look at (+expect) ASEAN to be like EU, or AU or
other regional group problem because it’s not
ASEAN
3) Problems, obstacles, constraints may be
strength of ASEAN
- Step - by – step, gradual process.
- Focus on confidence building, building
comfort level.
- Non – legalistic, non – adversarial
society.
- Acknowledging differences and building
strength out of diversity.
4) Perhaps need once more an “Eminent Person
Group” to bring in proposals and ideas from all
sectors to analyse and to understand the real
characteristic of ASEAN Community.
Looking Towards ASEAN Community 2015:
Constraints, Obstacles and Opportunities
By
Professor Dr.Surakiart SathirathaiFormer Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Foreign Affairs of ThailandDistinguished Scholar, Chulalongkorn University
Organized byInstitute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University
In cooperation withSiam Intelligence Unit (SIU)
April 21st, 2011Room 105, Maha Chulalongkorn Building,
Chulalongkorn University