Presentation for 4th thematic working Version5.ppt [互換モード] · Source: JICA Survey Team...

JICA STUDY TEAMFor The Project on Integrated Urban Development Master Plan for the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya

The Project on Integrated Urban Development Plan for The City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya

4th Thematic Technical Working Group13th Nov 2013

Road and Urban Transport Sector

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1. Progress of the Study

2. Future Transport Network Plan1) Alternative Plans2) Road Network Plan3) Public Transport Network Plan

3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result1) General Methodology2) Result of Demand Forecast

4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast5. Staging Plan

1) Basic Strategy2) Road Development Plan3) Public Transport Development Plan4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan

6. Conclusion and Recommendation

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1. Progress of the Study

1. Progress of the Study 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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2. Future Transport Network Plan

1) Alternative Plans

The following Alternative Plans are analyzed to establish network. Do-nothing Case:

Future (2030) traffic demand to present networkCase 0:On-going Project

Future traffic demand on existing network and on-going projects**Refer to next page.

Case 1: Road Development Oriented Case2006 Road Networked reinforced by future traffic demand and land use plan

Case 2: Utilization of Commuter Rail Case Future road network with Commuter Railway network

Case 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case Case 2+selective/modified MRTS network where demand concentrates

2. Future Transport Network Plan

4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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*On-going ProjectsThe following projects are included in the on-going projects.• Expanding and upgrading of the Northern Corridor Road including

the Elevated highway over the Uhuru Highway• Construction of Southern Bypass Road• Construction of Missing Link Roads financed by EU• Dualling of Outer Ring Road• Construction of Western Ring Roads• Widening of Ngong Road from Kenyatta Ave. intersection to

Dagoretti• Widening of Juja Road• Upgrading of Langata Road of KWS Gate-Bomas Junction Section

2. Future Transport Network Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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a) Basic Policy for Road Network Plan

Basic network shall be 2006 M/P (NUTRANS) and reinforced in the following aspects:

Strengthen circumferential/radial (C/R) network system.

Strengthen radial road network connecting surrounding area of Nairobi.(Necessary capacity will be estimated by demand forecast.)

Development of new road required by the land use plan.

Strengthen east-west axis roads Traffic assignment of future traffic demand to existing road(Do-nothing Case) will be analyzed and necessary capacity will be adopted.

2) Road Network Plan

4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan

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b) Road Network Proposed by NUTRANS

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c) Result of Traffic Assignment of Do‐nothing Case ‐ 2030 traffic demand to present network

Source: JICA Survey Team (JST) VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles


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VCR Situation

-1.0Free flow. Traffic congestion does not appear.

10-1.25

Traffic congestion may appear at a peak hour.

1.25－1.50

Traffic congestion appears at a peak hour.

1.50- Traffic congestion may appear all day.

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d) Evaluation of Demand Forecast of Alternative 0

• Mombasa Rd – Waiyaki Way shows VCR over 1.50.• Thika Rd shows VCR over 1.50.• Outer Ring Rd shows VCR over 1.50.• Juja Rd shows VCR over 1.50.• Jogoo Rd shows VCR over 1.50.• Langata Rd shows VCR over 1.50.• Ngong Rd. shows partially VCR over 1.50.• Eastern Bypass shows VCR over 1.50.

• Widening of Langata Rd to 6-lanes.• Widening of Jogoo Rd to 6-lanes.• Widening of Eastern Bypass to 4-lanes.• Introduction of MRTS to over capacity roads. Especially on-going

project roads.

In addition to the road network proposed by NUTRANS, the following measures are required in future road network.


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2. Future Transport Network Plan – Road Network 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

e) Future Road Network in 2030

Remark: Route of the circumferential road C2 was altered considering its feasibility. 10

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3) Public Transport Network Plan

a) Commuter Rail Network Proposed by NUTRIP


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Legend

Bus Rapid TransitLight Rail TransitMetro RailCommuter RailTransit HubTransit TerminalTransit Interchange

c) Public Transport Network Proposed by MRTS


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d) Evaluation of Priority Corridor


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e) Selected Priority Corridors and Routes

LRT circular route is proposed in order to decrease the number of vehicles going into CBD and make the CBD NMT area.


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Viaduct-1

Viaduct-2

New Bus Terminal

g)Terminal Plan

• Development of new bus/matatu terminal in the railway city is proposed to alleviate the congestion at the present terminal.

• Inter-city bus terminals are proposed at the outskirt of urban area. Those terminals also assist the creation of sub-centers.

Concept of new terminal in the railway city


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1) General Methodology : Four-step-method

Estimation of Future Population, etc.

Trip Generated and Attracted

Trip Distribution

Modal Split

Trip Assignment

Future Traffic Volume

The trip generated and attracted volume by zone is forecast from the trip production.

OD table which set trip generated and attracted volumeto an Origin/Destination is calculated.

The traffic among zones is split by transportation mode.

OD table by modal split is assigned to the transportationnetwork

Trip Production The purpose-oriented trip produced in the overall area is forecast.

Person Trip Survey

3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result

3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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a) Modal Split Forecast

Source: JICA Study Team (JST)


2) Result of Demand Forecast

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Alternative Year WALK PRIVATE BUS NewTransport RAIL TOTAL

Existing Case 2013 3,090,103 916,624 2,754,489 - 14,006 6,775,222Do Nothing 2030 3,951,711 2,161,718 3,885,662 - 18,587 10,017,678

0 On-going Project 2030 3,951,711 2,195,331 3,852,215 - 18,421 10,017,678

1 Road Development Oriented 2030 3,951,711 2,213,695 3,833,869 - 18,403 10,017,678

2 Utilization of Commuter Rail 2030 3,951,711 2,155,726 3,695,692 - 214,549 10,017,678

3 Introduction of Selective MRTS 2030 3,951,711 1,767,773 4,062,046 45,692 190,456 10,017,678

45.6%

39.4%

39.4%

39.4%

39.4%

39.4%

13.5%

21.6%

21.9%

22.1%

21.5%

17.6%

40.7%

38.8%

38.5%

38.3%

36.9%

40.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

2.1%

1.9%0.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2013

Do Nothing2030

Alternative 02030

Alternative 12030

Alternative 22030

Alternative 32030

WALK PRIVATE BUS RAIL New Transport

Unit : Trips

VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles


b) Vehicle Assignment Result


i) Present Vehicle Assignment Case – Assignment of present traffic demand to present network

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ii) Assignment of Future Traffic Demand (2030) to Existing Network (2013)


19Source: JICA Study Team (JST)



iii) Alternative 0: On‐going Project – Vehicle Assignment



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iv) Alternative 1: Road Development Oriented Case – Vehicle Assignment







v) Alternative 2: Utilization of Commuter Rail Case – Vehicle Assignment


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vi) Alternative 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case – Vehicle Assignment




c) Public Transport Assignment Result

i) Alternative 2: Utilization of Commuter Rail Case – Public Transport Assignment

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ii) Alternative 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case – Public Transport Assignment


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ii)‐2 Alternative 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case – Public Transport Assignment

Scaled up


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Alternative YearVehicle-km Total PCU-km(‘000)

Vehicle-hours Total PCU-Hour

Average Speed(km/h)

Average VCR

(Volume Capacity

Ratio)

Existing Case 2013 17,780 431,690 41.2 0.54

Do Nothing Case 2030 39,110 1,692,480 23.1 1.19

0 On-going Project Case 2030 37,670 1,173,180 32.1 1.02

1 Road Development Oriented Case 2030 36,490 929,850 39.2 0.85

2 Utilization of Commuter Rail Case 2030 35,090 880,110 39.9 0.81

3 Introduction of Selective MRTS Case 2030 30,540 725,460 42.1 0.71


a) Result in Study Area

4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast

4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast1) Major Indices by Vehicle Assignment

4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

b) Result in Nairobi City1) Major Indices by Vehicle Assignment



Average Speed(km/h)

Average VCR

(Volume Capacity

Ratio)

Existing Case 2013 10,960 273,910 40.0 0.69

Do Nothing Case 2030 25,320 1,254,120 20.2 1.60

0 On-going Project Case 2030 25,520 805,560 31.7 1.32

1 Road Development Oriented Case 2030 24,830 621,140 40.0 1.05

2 Utilization of Commuter Rail Case 2030 23,790 582,600 40.8 1.00


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2) Congestion Ratio by Vehicle Assignment


a) Result in Study Area


Unit : km

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Congestion Ratio

Existing in 2013

Do Nothing in 2030

Alternative 0 in 2030




-0.8 1,114.7 563.5 770.2 887.2 908.2 1,010.40.8 - 1.0 116.4 199.7 134.8 178.7 193.3 212.81.0 - 1.2 106.9 151.9 120.3 155.7 151.7 136.41.2 - 1.5 84.1 131.3 188.2 163.8 166.1 110.8

1.5 - 29.2 405.0 272.3 133.3 99.3 48.3TOTAL 1,451.4 1,451.4 1,485.8 1,518.7 1,518.7 1,518.7

76.8%

38.8%

51.8%

58.4%

59.8%

66.5%

8.0%

13.8%

9.1%

11.8%

12.7%

14.0%

7.4%

10.5%

8.1%

10.3%

10.0%

9.0%

5.8%

9.0%

12.7%

10.8%

10.9%

7.3%

2.0%

27.9%

18.3%

8.8%

6.5%

3.2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing2013

Do‐Nothing Case2030

Alternative 02030

Alternative 12030

Alternative 22030

Alternative 32030

‐0.8 0.8 ‐ 1.0 1.0 ‐ 1.2 1.2 ‐ 1.5 1.5 ‐



Unit : km

2) Congestion Ratio by Vehicle Assignment b) Result in Nairobi City

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Congestion Ratio

Existing in 2013

Do Nothing in 2030





-0.8 510.2 171.1 243.3 329.6 343.5 450.60.8 - 1.0 81.0 69.2 81.8 127.6 144.5 151.41.0 - 1.2 69.5 80.6 87.2 109.9 117.1 107.61.2 - 1.5 62.3 85.8 139.1 143.3 131.4 83.9

1.5 - 28.1 344.5 227.4 97.6 71.4 14.5TOTAL 751.2 751.2 778.9 807.9 807.9 807.9

67.9%

22.8%

31.2%

40.8%

42.5%

55.8%

10.8%

9.2%

10.5%

15.8%

17.9%

18.7%

9.3%

10.7%

11.2%

13.6%

14.5%

13.3%

8.3%

11.4%

17.9%

17.7%

16.3%

10.4%

3.7%

45.9%

29.2%

12.1%

8.8%

1.8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing2013

Do‐Nothing Case2030

Alternative 02030

Alternative 12030

Alternative 22030

Alternative 32030

‐0.8 0.8 ‐ 1.0 1.0 ‐ 1.2 1.2 ‐ 1.5 1.5 ‐

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- Comparing the indices of Alternative 0 to 3, vehicle-km, vehicle-hours and average VCR decrease due to the development of Mass Transit.

- Development of roads cannot solve the traffic congestion as shown in p.21. Reinforcement of mass transit and introduction of new transit system are requisite.

- By reinforcement of commuter rail and introduction of BRT to 6 corridors, traffic congestion is eased especially in the eastern area of city centre.

- As the result, Alternative 3 is recommended solution against the future increasing traffic demand.

3) Evaluation of Alternatives


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1) Basic Strategy

5. Staging Plan

Target of road and urban transport1) Network in coordination with land use2) Network for world class mobility

1st PhasePresent to 2018

2nd Phase2019 to 2023

3rd Phase2024 to 2030

Network in coordination with Land Use

Study/technical assistance for development of infrastructure in Railway City

Development of infrastructure in Railway City

Network development to connect sub-centres

Network for world class mobility

Improvement of network to solve existing issues. Institutional

arrangement for strengthening public transport

Introduction of MRTS to pilot corridors. Development of road

corridors to introduce MRTS Strengthening of

circumferential roads to form the C/R network

Expand introduction of MRTS to plural corridors Establishment of

C/R network system

5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

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Short Term (-2018) Road Network

2) Road Development Plan


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Medium Term (-2023) Road Network



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Long Term (-2030) Road Network



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Medium Term (-2023) Public Transport Network

3) Public Transport Development Plan


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Long Term (-2030) Public Transport Network

3) Public Transport Development Plan


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1) Result of Modal Split Forecast


4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan


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Alternative Year WALK PRIVATE BUS NewTransport RAIL TOTAL

Existing 2013 3,090,103 916,624 2,754,489 - 14,006 6,775,222

3 Introduction of Selective MRTS 2018 3,246,051 1,289,796 3,281,824 - 14,416 7,832,087

3 Introduction of Selective MRTS 2023 3,606,326 1,506,186 3,564,101 - 181,736 8,858,349

3 Introduction of Selective MRTS 2030 3,951,711 1,767,773 4,062,046 45,692 190,456 10,017,678

45.6%

41.4%

40.7%

39.4%

13.5%

16.5%

17.0%

17.6%

40.7%

41.9%

40.2%

40.5%

0.2%

0.2%

2.1%

1.9%

0.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2013

Alternative 32018

Alternative 32023

Alternative 32030

WALK PRIVATE BUS RAIL New Transport

Unit : Trips

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Source: JICA Survey Team (JST)VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles

i) Existing in 20132) Vehicle Assignment Result


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ii) Alternative 3 in 20182) Vehicle Assignment Result


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iv) Alternative 3 in 20232) Vehicle Assignment Result


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v) Alternative 3 in 20302) Vehicle Assignment Result


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ii) Alternative 3 in 20233) Public Transport Assignment Result


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iii)-1 Alternative 3 in 20303) Public Transport Assignment Result


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v) Alternative 3 in 2023 (Scaled up)3) Public Transport Assignment Result


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vi) Alternative 3 in 2030 (Scaled up)3) Public Transport Assignment Result


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i) Result in Study Area2) Major Indices by Traffic Assignment



Average Speed(km/h)

Average VCR

(Volume Capacity

Ratio)

Existing Case 2013 17,780 431,690 41.2 0.54






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ii) Result in Nairobi City2) Major Indices by Traffic Assignment



Average Speed(km/h)

Average VCR

(Volume Capacity

Ratio)

Existing Case 2013 10,960 273,910 40.0 0.69





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i) Result in Study Area3) Congestion Ratio by Traffic Assignment


Unit : km


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76.8%

66.8%

67.1%

66.5%

8.0%

10.9%

9.9%

14.0%

7.4%

6.8%

8.2%

9.0%

5.8%

8.8%

7.6%

7.3%

2.0%

6.6%

7.2%

3.2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing2013

Alternative 32018

Alternative 32023

Alternative 32030

‐0.8 0.8 ‐ 1.0 1.0 ‐ 1.2 1.2 ‐ 1.5 1.5 ‐

Congestion Ratio

Existing in 2013


Alternative 3-1 in 2023



-0.8 1,114.7 989.4 980.4 1,004.1 1,010.40.8 - 1.0 116.4 161.4 147.2 148.7 212.81.0 - 1.2 106.9 101.1 127.9 122.3 136.41.2 - 1.5 84.1 130.9 129.0 113.9 110.8

1.5 - 29.2 98.1 111.7 107.1 48.3TOTAL 1,451.4 1,480.9 1,496.2 1,496.2 1,518.7

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ii) Result in Nairobi City3) Congestion Ratio by Traffic Assignment


Unit : km


Congestion Ratio

Existing in 2013





-0.8 510.2 389.8 403.4 419.0 450.60.8 - 1.0 81.0 122.6 108.6 116.9 151.41.0 - 1.2 69.5 77.7 106.5 95.9 107.61.2 - 1.5 62.3 100.9 100.9 93.1 83.9

1.5 - 28.1 83.0 69.9 64.3 14.5TOTAL 751.2 773.9 789.3 789.3 807.9

67.9%

50.4%

53.1%

55.8%

10.8%

15.8%

14.8%

18.7%

9.3%

10.0%

12.2%

13.3%

8.3%

13.0%

11.8%

10.4%

3.7%

10.7%

8.1%

1.8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Existing2013

Alternative 32018

Alternative 32023

Alternative 32030

‐0.8 0.8 ‐ 1.0 1.0 ‐ 1.2 1.2 ‐ 1.5 1.5 ‐

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6. Conclusion and Recommendation 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector

6. Conclusion and RecommendationGeneral1. In the short term and medium term, traffic condition will

worsen because improvement of network cannot catch up the increasing traffic demand.

2. Under the condition that the proposed plan is implemented, transport condition will be improved in the target year. To this end, improvement of public transport network as well as road network is essential to realize future transport network.

Road Network1. Improvement of Mombasa Rd-Waiyaki Way is crucial project

for the whole Nairobi city. According to the analysis of the study, viaduct over Nyayo Stadium round about is necessary to reduce congestion. (See P.42)

2. Entry of heavy vehicles inside the area surrounded by eastern, northern and southern bypass shall be restricted after the completion of southern bypass.

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Public Transport Network1. In order to materialize the MRTS plan, not only the physical

infrastructure but also institutional framework, especially establishment of operator, is basically requested.

2. Obtaining general consensus for the improvement of transport network among the passengers and operators of bus/matatu is also requested.

Short Term MeasuresResult of traffic demand forecast shows the traffic congestion worsen in the short term and medium term . To cope with the issue, various measures should be undertaken.1. System signal control

Integrated Urban Surveillance System (IUSS) is now introduced to CBD area. But traffic congestion occurs in wider area, especially along the radial trunk road in the city, system signal control in the whole city area is expected.

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2. Introduction of bus-exclusive lane.Even before introduction of BRT, bus exclusive lane is effective to enhance the use of public transport.

3. Staggered working hoursIn the morning peak, more than 20% of private car arrival is from 7:00 to 8:00. But the before and after the peak hour, traffic volume decreases to only 5%. Staggered working hours can use the transport facilities more efficiently.

4. Streamline the fleet CarrierIn the information age, volume of commodity has become smaller but frequency has become high. Introduction of cooperating distribution system is highly required to decrease the number of vehicle trips in the business area.

5. Relocation of Bus terminalsAlong with the land use plan for development of sub-centers in the outskirts area, disposition of bus terminals is expected. These terminals will function as the transfer terminal from matatu to large bus.


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Date post:	10-May-2020
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