+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ......

Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ......

Date post: 04-Oct-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 4 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
58
- a leading energy company in the Nordic area Presentation for investors September 2007
Transcript
Page 1: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

- a leading energy companyin the Nordic area

Presentation for investorsSeptember 2007

Page 2: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

2

Disclaimer

This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares.

Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser.

Page 3: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

3

• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials / outlook• Supplementary material

Page 4: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

4

Fortum's strategy

Become the leadingpower and heat

company

Become theenergy supplier

of choice

Benchmark business performance

Fortum focuses on the Nordic and Baltic Rimmarkets as a platform for profitable growth

Page 5: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

5

Baltic countriesHeat sales 1.0 TWhDistribution cust. 23,000Poland

Heat sales 3.6 TWhElectricity sales 8 GWh

NW Russia(in associated companies)Power generation ~6 TWhHeat production ~7 TWh

NordicGeneration 53.2 TWhElectricity sales 60.2 TWhDistribution cust. 1.6 mill.Electricity cust. 1.3 mill.Heat sales 20.1 TWh

Presence in focus market areas

2006 numbers

Page 6: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

6

Fortum Markets

Large customers

Fortum Business structure

Small customers

Other retail companies

Fortum Distribution

Transmission and system services

Nordic wholesale

market

Nordic wholesale

market

Nord Pool and bilateral

FortumPower

Generation

Power Generation

66%Heat 17%

Distribution17%

Markets 0%

Fortum's comparable operating profit in 2006

EUR 1,437 million

Deregulated

Regulated

Page 7: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

7

Strong financial position

ROCE (%)

14.113.5 13.4

10

12

14

16

2005 2006 LTM

EPS, cont. (EUR)

1.221.42

1.01

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2005 2006 LTM

Total assets (EUR billion)

17.515.1

16.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2005 2006 LTM

ROE (%)

14.4

17.3

13.5

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2006 LTM

Net debt/EBITDA

2.41.8

2.3

0

1

2

3

4

2005 2006 LTM0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

2004 2005 2006

Dividend, (EUR)

0.58

1.121.26

0.54

0.58

0.53

0.73

Situation 30 June 2007

Page 8: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

8

Growing capital returns

Total ~ 3,775 MEUR

* from continuing operations** with 60% payout ratio

1999 2001 20032000 2002 2004

0.18 0.23 0.26 0.310.42

0.58

2005

1.12

Dividend per shareEUR

0.13

1998

0.58

*0.

54

2006

1.26

0.73

**0.

53

• Dividend of EUR 1.26 per share, in total over EUR 1.1 billion

• Mandate for repurchasing of the company’s own shares; maximum EUR 300 million

• Dividend policy of 50 - 60% payout of previous year's results on the average

Page 9: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

9

• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials / outlook• Supplementary material

Page 10: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

10

Huge need for new capacity...

Globally ... ... European wide ...

Existing/remaining capacityDemand

Source: Eurprog 2005; Europe: EU25

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 500

2000 2005 2010E 2015E2020E

TWh

900 TWh

... and in Russia

Source: Minister KristenkoDecember 2006

Demand growth~300-500 TWhby 2015

TWh

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, reference scenario for generation

~10 000 TWh

20041 2010E 2020E

1 Production 2004: 17 408 TWh/IEA 2006

Page 11: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

11

...also in the Nordic market

• Electricity demand is expected to increase by around 50 TWh by 2020 compared to 2005

• Estimated retirement approx. 30 TWh

• Total need for investments roughly 80 TWh– approximately 40 TWh already committed– another 40 TWh still needed

(incl. upgrades )

Retiring capacity Committed new capacity~ 40 TWh

Old CHP

Old condense capacity (mainly coal)

~ 30 TWhCommitted new capacity~ 40 TWh

Old CHP

Old condense capacity (mainly coal)

Hydro

CHP

Wind

Nuclear

Cond.

)

Demand and capacity development in the Nordic market

Committed projectsExisting / remaining generationDemand

TWh

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

80 TWh

Page 12: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

12

New capacity will require an EUR 50+ power price

Source: Nord Pool

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

EUR/MWh

Futures29 August 2007

1995 -97 -99 -01 -03 -05 -07 -09 -11

Source: IEA "World Energy Outlook 2006"; Elforsk "El från nya anläggningar" 2003, and Fortum. Adjusted to indicate nominal costs year 2012.Large variations in cost of new hydro and wind due to location and conditions

Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind

EUR/MWh

Cleancoal

0102030405060708090

100110

Fuel costs

( variation)

CO2 cost 20 €/ton

Fixed costs

Page 13: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

13

Towards a functioning European power market

Benefitingcustomers and

societies

• Market-based development• Increased competition• Increased efficiency

Directives:Market liberalisationStrategy:Market integration

1990's2000 -

2010 -

Today –regional Nordic

Tomorrow –European

Yesterday –national

Page 14: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

14

• Nord Pool introduced in 2005 a German spotmarket area "KONTEK" to enhance the Nordic-German trade

• Direct market coupling between Nord Pool and the German EEX under development

• Estlink (Estonia - Finland) taken into commercialoperation in January 2007

• Jutland - Germany transmission capacityincreased from 1200/800 MW to 1500/950 MW in February 2007

• NorNed (Norway - the Netherlands) by 2008 connecting Norway directly with the Continent

• Nordel priority projects enhance internal Nordicmarket integration

Nordic market becoming more integrated into Europe

Present (MW)Under construction (MW)

Discussed (MW)Planned (MW)

2750 1500

1300

300

5060

900

2200

900

1200600

1000 200

125

600

10001600

2500

35001700

550

1500800

500

2050

70

10407401700

550600

1500

3800

700

350

600

100+ 200

600

+200

1000

1100

+1500

+800 600

700

+500

Page 15: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

15

The Nordic market place in 2010

79%

Marketat least385 TWh/a

X%

Marketat least1,500 TWh/a

98%

Market at least250 TWh/a

Integration level of the markets, measured on an hourly level in 2010; percentage of the time wholesale prices being the sameSource: Fingrid

Six new cables:• Fenno-Skan 2• South-middle

Sweden (2012-13)• Nea-Järpströmmen• Skagerrak• Store Bält• NorNed

82%

Marketat least285 TWh/a

Market coupling:• Nordic+Kontek• TLC (NL-BE-FR)• Nordic-TLC• Nordic-Germany• Germany-TLC

• Bigger market• More efficient use of production capacity• Better availability of transmission capacity• Better security of supply

Page 16: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

16

One market – one price

The most efficientsingle commodity

market in the world

TargetTLC market couplingprice convergencebetter utilisation of cross-bordercapacity

Page 17: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

17

Key EU objectives by 2020

Competitiveness Sustainability

Security of supply

• Implementation of internal energy markets

• Energy efficiency +20% (2020)

• Increased resources for technology development

• Development of cross-border transmission• Increase in own production• Enhancement of external energy relations

• Minimum reduction of EU CO2 emissions 20% (2020)

• Renewables 20% (2020)• Development of CO2

capture and storage

Page 18: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

18

• Olkiluoto 3, Finland, nuclear• Swedish nuclear• Suomenoja, Finland (CHP)• Värtan, Sweden (bio CHP)• Järvenpää, Finland (bio CHP)• Brista, Sweden (waste CHP)• Refurbishing of existing hydro assets• Wind power, Sweden

In addition• Automated meter management (EUR 240 million)• Security of supply in distribution (EUR 700 million)

Fortum's investment programme

Value of the investment programme around EUR 3 billionof which ~90% CO2-free

Total~ 1,300 MW

Page 19: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

19

Other(peat, gas, coal, other)

CO2 -free production (nuclear power, hydro power, bio fuels)

• ~9 TWh increase in CO2 -free production*

• ~10 TWh increase in total production*

Continued increase in CO2 -free power production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TWh

2006 After theinvestmentprogramme

Fortum's power production

* compared to 2006

Page 20: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

20

• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials / outlook• Supplementary material

Page 21: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

21

> 4,000TWh(bln kWh)

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 500

USChin

aJa

pan

Russia

India

Canad

aGerm

any

France

Brasil

Nordic UK

Russian power markets are attractive

• 4th largest in the world• Strong growth • Potential for efficiency improvement• Reform offers opportunities

Russian power generation

2005 figures

Page 22: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

22

Substantial need for new capacity

1,420

1,710

TWh (bln kWh)

Demand growth 500+ TWhbefore year 2020 1,520

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Russian power demand forecast

• Power generation investment is expected to total € 90 billion by 2011:

• nuclear € 40 billion (10,000 MW) • thermal € 40 billion (42,000 MW) • and hydro € 10 billion (4,800 MW)

• In addition grid and transmission investment expected to amount to € 40 billion

Page 23: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

23

Power sector reform impacts industry structure

Competitive businesses

14 territorial

generation companies

(TGCs)

6 thermal wholesale generation companies

(WGCs)

1 hydro wholesale generation company (WGC)

<49% 65 -100%

System operator

0% 75 -100%

Holdings of guaranteeing

suppliers, isolated energos

48%

Federal Grid

Company (FGC)

4-5 inter-regional

distribution companies

(IDCs)

<25% 48%

49%

Holding of IDCs

Regulated monopolies

Share of private ownership

Target structure planned to emerge in 2008

49 - 100%

Sales companies

Privatised companiesState-controlled companies

Ownership share

RAO UES restructuring

Page 24: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

24

Gas price is an important factor affecting electricity price

• Price of gas is the key factor affecting the electricity price in Russia since almost half of power is produced with gas-fired power generation

• Gas price is regulated and is currently very low• Long term gas contracts available for the first time in power sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pric

e E

UR

/MW

h

Russia Germany

Electricity price and typical marginal costs for gas-fired power plant2

Electricity priceCO2 cost

Gas cost

Nordic

2) Annual average market prices for 2006 (for Russia liberal energy price). In Russia there is a separate capacity payment in addition to energy price.

Russian power generation991 TWh in 20061

Gas 46%

Coal18%

Hydro18%

Nuclear16%

Oil2%

Other<1%

(455 TWh)

(178 TWh)

(156 TWh)

(175 TWh)

1) Source: RAO UES, MinPromEnergo

Page 25: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

25

Fortum's current holdings in Russia

TGC-1• ~25% ownership• 6,250 MW capacity

– electricity ~24 TWh– heat ~25 TWh

WGC-5• ~1% ownership• 8,660 MW capacity

– electricity ~40 TWh

St. Petersburg

Moscow

TGC-1

Invested MEUR 0Market capitalisation MEUR ~ 800

Konakovo 2,400 MW

Nevinomyssk 1,290 MW

Reftino 3,800 MW

Sredneuralsk 1,170 MW

Page 26: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

26

Focus on growth in generation

• TGC-1 has decided on a share issue aiming at increasing the share capital by about EUR 930 million

• The new capital will be used to finance increase in TGC-1 electricity production capacity by 50% or over 3,000 MW by 2015

• Fortum is today the second largest shareholder

• The target is to maintain the current, slightly over 25% stake in TGC-1

• According to the latest reform plans for interregional distribution companies, Lenenergo will be left in its current form

• Fortum owned about one third of the electricity distribution company Lenenergo in St Petersburg

• The target is to focus on generation and service businesses

• Agreement on sale of Lenenergo stake 17 Aug 2007

Page 27: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

27

Sale of Lenenergo stake

• Fortum has decided to sell its stake - slightly over 1/3 of shares - in JSC Lenenergo for approximately EUR 295 million

• The buyers are VTB Bank, I.D.E. Electricity Distribution Investments 1 Ltd and the Russian energy company RAO UES

• As a consequence, Fortum will book an after tax gain of approximately EUR 230 million, corresponding to EUR 0.26 per share, in its third quarter financial results

Agreement on sale of Lenenergo stake 17 Aug 2007

Page 28: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

28

Major production volume under sale

1 hydro WGC 10%

Other standalone co'sand stations 20%

Rosenergoatom 11%

Irkutskenergo 6%14 TGCs26%

6 thermal WGCs 24%

Krasnoyarskaya GES 3%

The new structure in generation ownership

Indicative time schedule

Actual placements and schedule of preparedness of the companies for share placementsSource: Press clips

WGCsWGC 1WGC 2WGC 3WGC 4WGC 5WGC 6

TGCsTGC 1TGC 2TGC 3TGC 4TGC 5TGC 6TGC 7TGC 8TGC 9TGC 10TGC 11TGC 12TGC 13TGC 14

Q12008

Q3 Q42007

Q1 Q2Q42006

Q2

By share of production

Page 29: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

29

Major growth opportunity in power generation

• WGCs – large scale power generation, with big generation units and only limited heat generation

– capacities 8,500 - 9,000 MW– power generation volumes 30 - 50 TWh/a– new investment programs 1,900 - 3,100

MW, bringing power generation volumes to a level of 50 - 70 TWh/a

0102030

405060

eachTGC

eachWGC

Fortum

Power generationTWh

exceptMosenergo

The size of each WGC more than half of Fortum's current production

Page 30: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

30

• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials / outlook• Supplementary material

Page 31: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

31

Current Fortum Group financial targets

Return on capital employed 12%Return on shareholder's equity 14%Net debt/EBITDA 3.0 - 3.5

Page 32: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

32

MEUR (Continuing operations) LTM 2006 2005

Sales 4 499 4 491 3 877

Operating profit 1 488 1 455 1 347

Cash flow from operations 1 435 1 151 1 271

Interest-bearing net debt 4 610 4 345 3 158

Balance sheet total 17 451 16 839 15 130

Net debt/EBITDA 2.4 2.3 1.8

Return on capital employed (%) 14.1 13.4 13.5

Return on shareholders' equity (%) 17.3 14.4 13.5

Key financials

in Q2 2007

Page 33: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

33

Nordic water reservoirs

Source: Nord Pool

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

rese

rvoi

r con

tent

(TW

h)

week

200620001996 2007 reference level

Page 34: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

34

Wholesale price for electricity

Source: Nord Pool

Page 35: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

35

Nord Pool year forwards

€/MWh Year 05 Year 06 Year 07 Year 08 Year 09 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12August 27, 2007

24262830323436384042444648505254565860

2004 2005 2006Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1

2007Q2 Q3

Page 36: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

36

Hedging of Power Generation's Nordic sales

Hedge ratio Hedge price

Rest of 2007 ~ 80% ~ EUR 40 per MWh

Calendar year2008

~ 50% ~ EUR 43 per MWh

Status at the beginning of July 2007:

(~70%) (~ EUR 40 per MWh)

(Status at the beginning of April 2007:)

(~40%) (~ EUR 42 per MWh)

Page 37: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

37

• Focus on the Nordic and Baltic areas, Poland and Russia

• Good hedging positions

• Flexible and climate-benign production portfolio

• Strong financial position

• Attractive opportunities in Russia

Fortum is well positioned

Page 38: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

38

• Fortum today• European power markets• Russia• Financials / outlook• Supplementary material

Page 39: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

39

We want to be leading in sustainability

To be the benchmark power and heatcompany excelling in sustainability

High ethicsCo-operative spiritExcellent performance

Fortum focuses on the Nordic and Baltic Rimmarkets as a platform for profitable growth

Become the leadingpower and heat company

Become the energysupplier of choice

Benchmark business performance

Vision

Strategy

Values

Core Purpose

"Our energyimproves life for present and futuregenerations"

Creativity and innovation

Page 40: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

40

Capital structure

• Fortum wants to have a prudent and efficient capital structure which at the same time allows the implementation of its strategy

• Target: Net debt / EBITDA between 3.0 - 3.5

• Capital expenditure, acquisitions and capital returns to shareholders are the ways to move towards the target

• Dividend policy of 50 - 60% payout of previous year's results on the average

Page 41: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

41

MW

Nordic capacity structure

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Denmark Norway Sweden Finland

Wind power

Gas turbines, etc.

Condensing power

CHP, district heatingCHP, industry

Nuclear power

Hydro power

Source: Nordel

Total Nordic capacity 92 300 MW (31 Dec 2006)

Page 42: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

42

Still a highly fragmented Nordic power market

Electricity distribution14 million customers~500 companies

Electricity retail14 million customers>450 companies

Power generation384 TWh

>350 companies

Fortum

Vattenfall

Dong Energy

Others

Statkraft

29%

E.ONPVO

E-CO Energi

HelsinkiNorsk Hydro

Agder

SEAS-NVE

Fortum

Vattenfall

Others

Hafslund

E.ON51%

HelsinkiStatkraftGöteborgBKK

Dong Energy

Dong Energy

Fortum

VattenfallOthers

E.ON

54%

Hafslund

PlusenergiSEAS-NVEHelsinkiFjordkraftÖstkraft

Current market shares based on 2006 figuresCurrent market shares based on 2006 figures

Page 43: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

43

Development of the European Emission Trading System

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3520072008

ETS price 2005-2007€/CO2

Source: Nord Pool

Q4Q1 Q42005

Q2 Q3 Q12006

Q2 Q3 Q12007

Q2 Q3

Future challenges• EU committed to emission trading• Improving the market by increasing

market transparency– information available to all market

participants at the same time– common procedures -

harmonisation– stability and predictability

• Expansion of emission trading during the Kyoto period

– JI and CDM utilisation– National allocation plans for

second trading period (NAP 2)

Page 44: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

44

"Power industry law" approvedRestructuring of regional energos (P&H companies)Formation of new companiesEstablishment of Russian power exchangeLaunch of the free-trade sector of the wholesale marketIntroduction of vested bilateral contracts for a transitional period to replace the regulated sector of the wholesale marketLaunch of balancing power marketCompetitive market of ancillary services and generating capacityGradual liberalisation of the retail market

Pricing model reform – from tariff regulation to competitive pricing

Market liberalisation in competitive businesses

TransmissionDistribution

GenerationSales

Regulated monopolies

Competitive businesses

Unbundling of businesses by type of activity

Key steps in the reformA Nordic/Western analogy

Russian power industry reform

Page 45: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

45

"Power industry law" approved 2003Establishment of Russian power exchange (ATS) 2001Launch of the free-trade sector of the wholesale market

in European & Urals 2003in Siberia 2005

Launch of balancing power segment 2006Launch of new wholesale market model 2006Restructuring of regional energos (P&H companies) almost completeFormation of new companies almost completeCapacity market 2007Competitive market of ancillary services 2007Financial derivatives market 2008Full liberalisation of the power market 2011

Key steps in the reform

Russian power industry reform has progressed well

Time

Page 46: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

46

Reform – Planned key events for 2007-2008

Structural reform• Completion of the Structural reform

• RAO UES to release ownership from generation assets– Share placements and sales of stakes in WGCs and TGCs– Completion of the first spin-offs of RAO UES – Distribution of RAO UES’ assets to its shareholders

• Selling off maintenance and repairing companies

• Selling off sales companies

Market liberalisation• Launch of Capacity Market

• Launch of Ancillary Services Market

• Launch of Financial Derivatives Market

Page 47: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

47

Strong financial performance in Q1-Q2/2007

Comparison: I-II/2006 financial results

• Comparable operating profit EUR 810 (772) million, + 5%• Earnings per share EUR 0.85 (0.64), + 33%• Net cash from operating activities EUR 1,070 (786) million• Fortum’s net debt increased to EUR 4,610 (4,345 at year end) million

MEUR II/2007 II/2006 I-II/2007 I-II/2006 2006 LTM

Power Generation 218 208 546 501 985 1 030

Heat 36 35 173 161 253 265

Distribution 53 53 131 134 250 247

Markets 3 2 -11 2 -4 -17

Other -12 -12 -29 -26 -47 -50

Comparable operating profit 298 286 810 772 1 437 1 475

Page 48: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

48

MEUR II/2007 II/2006 I-II/2007 I-II/2006 2006 LTM

Sales 959 948 2 299 2 291 4 491 4 499Expenses -632 -636 -1 482 -1 507 -3 036 -3 011

Operating profit 327 312 817 784 1 455 1 488Share of profit of associates and joint ventures 15 6 217 41 69 245Financial expenses, net -41 -31 -72 -46 -103 -129

Profit before taxes 301 287 962 779 1 421 1 604Income tax expense -65 -60 -174 -180 -301 -295

Net profit for the period 236 227 788 599 1 120 1 309Of which minority interest 5 8 35 34 49 50

EPS, basic (EUR) 0.26 0.25 0.85 0.64 1.22 1.42EPS, diluted (EUR) 0.26 0.24 0.84 0.63 1.21 1.42

Income statement

Page 49: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

49

MEUR II/2007 II/2006 I-II/2007 I-II/2006 2006 LTM

Operating profit before depreciations 438 409 1 040 979 1 884 1 945

Non-cash flow items and divesting activities -6 -47 -5 -23 -92 -74

Financial items and taxes 14 -60 -142 -170 -463 -435

Funds from operations (FFO) 446 302 893 786 1 329 1 436

Change in working capital 127 181 177 0 -178 -1

Total cash from operating activities 573 483 1 070 786 1 151 1 435

Paid capital expenditures -113 -103 -213 -174 -485 -524

Acquisition of shares -2 -707 -10 -750 -899 -159

Other investing activities 5 25 -24 9 78 45

Cash flow before financing activities 463 -302 823 -129 -155 797

Cash flow statement

Page 50: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

50

Balance sheet

MEUR Jun 30 Mar 31 Dec 312007 2007 2006

Non-current assets 15 227 14 958 15 103Current assets 2 224 2 781 1 736

ASSETS 17 451 17 739 16 839

Total equity 8 014 7 594 8 161 of which minority interest 278 271 253Interest-bearing liabilities 5 489 4 999 4 502Non-interest bearing liabilities 3 948 5 146 4 176

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 17 451 17 739 16 839

Equity per share (EUR) 8.68 8.22 8.91Net debt, (MEUR) 4 610 3 932 4 345

LTM Dec 312006

Net debt/EBITDA 2.4 2.3

Page 51: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

51

Wholesale prices for electricity

Source:

2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100EUR/MWh Spot prices Forward prices

27 August 2007

UK

German

Nordic

Page 52: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

52

Sustainability: even stricter CO2 targets

• In heat production, Fortum's aim is to reduce the specific emissions in each district heating area by at least 10% from 2006 until 2020

• Outside the EU, Fortum is committed to reduce specific emissions and increase efficiency

Fort

um 2

005

Fort

um 2

006

Source: PWC and Enerpresse 2006, Fortum

gCO2/kWh

0100200300400500600700800900

1.0001.100

DE

I

Dra

x

RW

E

ED

P

Ener

giE2

Edis

on

Ende

sa

CE

Z

Uni

on F

enos

a

Enel

Scot

tish&

Sout

hern

E.O

N

Esse

nt

Els

am

Vatte

nfal

l

Elec

trabe

l

Hel

sing

inEn

ergi

a

Iber

drol

a

PVO

Verb

und

Briti

sh E

nerg

y

ED

F

Sta

tkra

ft

107 38Fortum's

new target<80 gCO2/kWh

Page 53: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

53

Foreign investors 35.4%Finnish State 50.6%

Other Finnish investors 7.5%

Households 4.9% Financial and insurance institutions 1.6%

• Leading power and heat company in Nordic• Founded and listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1998• More than 50,000 shareholders• Among the most traded shares in Helsinki stock exchange• Market cap ~21 billion euros

A leading Nordic power and heat company

27 August 2007

Page 54: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

54

Fortum's Nordic power generation

Hydro power 37%

Peat 2%

Coal 10%

Other 2%

Nuclear power 46%

Biomass 3%

Total generation 53.2 TWh(Generation capacity 10,768 MW)

Hydro power 42%

Peat 1%

Coal 3%

Other 2%

Nuclear power 50%

Biomass 2%

Total generation 51.2 TWh(Generation capacity 11,136 MW)

Fortum's Nordic power generation in 2005

Fortum's Nordic power generation in 2006

Page 55: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

55

Total production 20.6 TWh(Production capacity 8,252 MW)

Fortum's Nordic heat production in 2005

Oil 10%Peat 7%

Heat pumps, electricity16%

Waste 6%

Biomass fuels24%

Natural gas 9%

Other 11%

Coal 17%

Fortum's Nordic heat production

Total production 21.3 TWh(Production capacity 9,239 MW)

Fortum's Nordic heat production in 2006

Oil 8%

Peat 7%

Heat pumps, electricity15%

Waste 6%

Biomass fuels25%

Natural gas 7%

Other 12%

Coal 20%

Page 56: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

56

Territorial generation companies (TGCs)

1

3

2

4

8

6

7

5

10

9

11

1213

14

Source: RAO UES, company websites

Installed capacity of which hydroTGC-1 6,248 MW 2,874 MWTGC-2 2,583 MWTGC-3 10,677 MWTGC-4 3,324 MWTGC-5 2,467 MWTGC-6 3,140 MWTGC-7 6,880 MWTGC-8 3,602 MW 297 MWTGC-9 3,280 MW 35 MWTGC-10 2,773 MWTGC-11 2,026 MWTGC-12 4,549 MWTGC-13 2,458 MWTGC-14 643 MW

54,650 MW

• Companies combined on a territorial basis from regional energos' generation assets

• TGCs may include also heat assets

Page 57: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

57

Source: RAO UES, company websites

Thermal and hydro wholesale generation companies

Thermal WGCs:WGC-1 9,531 MWWGC-2 8,695 MWWGC-3 8,497 MWWGC-4 8,630 MWWGC-5 8,672 MWWGC-6 9,052 MW

53,077 MW

Hydro WGC: 22,687 MW

Rosenergoatom Nuclear Power PlantsNon-RAO UES energos:TatenergoBashkirenergoIrkutskenergoNovosibirskenergo

• Each company will include power plants across the Russian Federation

• The size of thermal WGCs about 9,000 MW each, the hydro WGC rough 22,000 MW

Page 58: Presentation for investors - Fortum · Presentation for investors September 2007. 2 Disclaimer ... reference scenario for generation ~10 000 TWh 20041 2010E 2020E 1 Production 2004:

58


Recommended