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Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
1
MEASURING MILITARY CAPABILITIES
MILITARY EXPENDITURE & ARMS ACQUISITIONSAND THEIR RELATION TO MILITARY CAPABILITIES
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
2
Global Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billionsGlobal Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
OAS Europe Middle East Asia Africa
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
3
OAS Military ExpenditureShares 2001-2005
OAS Military ExpenditureShares 2001-2005
USACanadaCentral AmericaSouth AmericaCaribbean
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
4
OAS Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billionsOAS Military Expenditure1996-2005 in constant USD billions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
South America Central America Caribbean
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
5
Global Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV
Global Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
OAS Others
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
6
OAS Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIVOAS Arms Imports1996-2005 in SIPRI TIV
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Central America South America North America Caribbean
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
7
OAS Arms ImportsShares 2001-2005
OAS Arms ImportsShares 2001-2005
CanadaBrazilChilePeruColombiaMexicoArgentinaVenezuelaOthers
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
8
What is wrong with the previous pictures?
What is wrong with the previous pictures?
They do NOT give good indications of military capability
Bean CountingMilitary expenditure and arms acquisitions do NOT make military capability - they are ONLY two of many indicators
They are very weak indicators - certainly when not disaggregated
They do NOT give good indications of military capability
Bean CountingMilitary expenditure and arms acquisitions do NOT make military capability - they are ONLY two of many indicators
They are very weak indicators - certainly when not disaggregated
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
9
How then to measure military capability?How then to measure military capability?
Military capability is in the end only really measurable on the battlefield
Second (and preferred) option is using different quantitative and qualitative data
Military capability is in the end only really measurable on the battlefield
Second (and preferred) option is using different quantitative and qualitative data
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
10
What data are needed?What data are needed?
QuantityWhat is there? Holdings = existing inventory + acquisition + modernization - deletion)
QualityHow good is it? Technical parameters + ageHow is it used? How good are the users?What logistic support is there? How long will the platforms last?
What is the balance of equipment?
QuantityWhat is there? Holdings = existing inventory + acquisition + modernization - deletion)
QualityHow good is it? Technical parameters + ageHow is it used? How good are the users?What logistic support is there? How long will the platforms last?
What is the balance of equipment?
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
11
Equipment data neededEquipment data needed
NumbersPlatforms
Types (detailed)Age and modernizations
Consumption goodsAmmunitionSpares
NumbersPlatforms
Types (detailed)Age and modernizations
Consumption goodsAmmunitionSpares
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
12
Context data neededContext data needed
Military contextBasingDoctrineTrainingNetwork or integration of forces
Policy contextDefence and foreign policyCulture - national will to use military force
Military contextBasingDoctrineTrainingNetwork or integration of forces
Policy contextDefence and foreign policyCulture - national will to use military force
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
13
Where to get data?Where to get data?
NumbersRegisters (UNROCA, OAS - with as much detail as possible)
Budgets (disaggregated)Background
Policy statements (white papers) and policy practice
Training and operation ‘manuals’Observation (exchanges)Joint exercises and operations
NumbersRegisters (UNROCA, OAS - with as much detail as possible)
Budgets (disaggregated)Background
Policy statements (white papers) and policy practice
Training and operation ‘manuals’Observation (exchanges)Joint exercises and operations
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
14
How relevant is measuring of military
capabilities?
How relevant is measuring of military
capabilities?A must in areas of tension
Of much less relevance for international relations in peaceful environments
But relevant for internal use (measuring of own military capabilities)Synchronizing defence with foreign policy
A must in areas of tension
Of much less relevance for international relations in peaceful environments
But relevant for internal use (measuring of own military capabilities)Synchronizing defence with foreign policy
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
15
Where does that leave UN MILEX mechanism?
Where does that leave UN MILEX mechanism?
Good - disaggregated dataGood - standardizationBad - voluntaryBad - very few reportNever meant really to be used for measuring military capabilities, recognizing threats and early warning
Good - disaggregated dataGood - standardizationBad - voluntaryBad - very few reportNever meant really to be used for measuring military capabilities, recognizing threats and early warning
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
16
Where does that leave UNROCA?
Where does that leave UNROCA?
Good - numbers and typesGood - possibility for background info and data
Bad - only importsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons
Bad - voluntaryBad - important importers do not report
Good - numbers and typesGood - possibility for background info and data
Bad - only importsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons
Bad - voluntaryBad - important importers do not report
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
17
Where does that leave OSCE exchange of
information?
Where does that leave OSCE exchange of
information? Good - mandatory Good - numbers and types Good - including some support/force multiplier systems
Good - verification Good - reporting on planned acquisition Good - acquisitions and holdings Good - info on doctrine and policy But not in region in much need of it
Good - mandatory Good - numbers and types Good - including some support/force multiplier systems
Good - verification Good - reporting on planned acquisition Good - acquisitions and holdings Good - info on doctrine and policy But not in region in much need of it
Presentation for OAS meeting 1 Dec. 2006
18
Where does that leave OAS Convention?
Where does that leave OAS Convention?
Good - mandatoryGood - numbers and typesGood - includes all acquisitionsBad - no holdingsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons
Bad - no background infoBad? - very few reportBut not in a region in much need of it
Good - mandatoryGood - numbers and typesGood - includes all acquisitionsBad - no holdingsBad - only traditional ‘aggressive’ weapons
Bad - no background infoBad? - very few reportBut not in a region in much need of it