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7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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COPYRIGHT 2013 LJPR, LLC
4555 Investment DriveSuite 304Troy, Michigan 48098(248)[email protected]
www.ljpr.com
Facebook: facebook.com/ljprllcTwitter: @ljprllc
Reducing Uncertainty
PDF processed with CutePDF evaluation edition www.CutePDF.com
http://www.cutepdf.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.cutepdf.com/http://www.cutepdf.com/mailto:[email protected]7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Michigan: An Emerging Market?Sector growth and bifurcation
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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COPYRIGHT 2013 LJPR, LLC
What Does This Look Like?
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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COPYRIGHT 2013 LJPR, LLC
Michigan/US GDP 2005-2012
Michigan
340
360
380
400
420
440
GDP
GDP
US
12
13
14
15
16
GDP
GDP
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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COPYRIGHT 2013 LJPR, LLC
Michigan GDP Growth Accelerating
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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COPYRIGHT 2013 LJPR, LLC
Michigan Beating the Region
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Michigan Employment
04/2003: 4.41Mjobs
03/2013: 4.06M
Ref 07/09: 3.83M
Michiganemployment up 6%
Real tale in sectorsand geography
State Growth 3/12-3/13: 0.9%
Metro areas: Monroe: -1.0%
Saginaw: -1.9%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia: -0.7% Jackson: -0.4%
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn: -0.1
Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy:0.3%
Flint: 0.5%
Lansing: 0.6%
Bay City: 0.8%
Grand Rapids: 1.8%
Ann Arbor: 2.0%
Holland: 2.1%
Battle Creek: 2.2% Muskegon: 2.5%
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Michigan employment
85%
95%
105%
115%
Mining & Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Servies
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Job Multiples: Energy and Autos
For Every 100 Jobs created in: Additional Jobs Created
Petroleum Refining 1190
Utilities 514
Chemicals 495
Automobiles 464
Electrical Machinery 353
Paper 325
Manufacturing 291
Investment Banks 192
Construction 190
Hotels & Lodging 94
Retail 88
Source: Josh Bevens, Updated Employment Multipliers for the US Economy (2003)
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Michigan Oil and Gas
MI producers supply 22% of all natural gas used inthe state
MI ranks 12th nationally in oil/gas job growth
Jobs in oil/gas industry up 9% to 11% Increased drilling activity reported for 2013
56K+ permits have been issued for oil and gas wells
60 yr. record of using hydraulic fracturing in over
12,000 wells without environmental incident 2012 MI drilling history: 9,372 ft. deep, 10,300 ft.
horizontally (old record from 1975)Reference: Michigan Oil and Gas Association
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Real Estate Explosion
For sale inventories at10-year low
SE MI inventories at
20-year low. Months Supply of
Inventory is under 3months
Overbid are 20-30% Overall MI appreciation
was 7-10%
Negative Mortgage rate
Bank owned down tounder 30% (from 55%at peak)
Many markets up over20%:
Berkley: 52.4%
Royal Oak: 33.1%
Walled Lake: 58.5%
Lake Orion: 48.2%
Oakland Twp: 20.9%
Madison Heights: 38.1%
Ferndale: 44.4%
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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Some Michigan Stocks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
10/10/07
3/9/2009
4/25/13
7/30/2019 Presentation on the Michigan Economic Recovery
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And their return 03/09 to 03/12
674%437%505%
3738%
83%
454%206%
1183%
174%110%157%173%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
3000%
3500%
4000%
