1

Philippine Experiences: Climate/Disaster

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Dr. Jacob Tio

Philippines

NAP Expo 2015, Bonn, Germany, 15 April 2015

Integrated Assessment Approaches

Commission

Change

Climate

Climate Change

Act of 2009

Peoples Survival Fund

Legal Mandate

2

Build the adaptive capacities of women

and men in their communities, increase

the resilience of vulnerable sectors and natural ecosystems to climate change, and optimize mitigation

opportunities towards gender-responsive and

rights-based sustainable

development

(6)

Ecosystem-

based Mgt

(3)

Climate

Change

Impacts &

Risks

(2)

Vulnerable

Population

(1)

Ecosystem

Services

(4)

Economic

Activities

(5)

Bundle of

Assistance to

Improve CC

Resilience

Innovative

Financing

(Adaptation

Support)

Social Protection

& Risk Sharing

• PPP

• NG-LG Cost

Sharing

TA on Adaptation

measures &

technologies;

ecosystem

management

(6)

CC Resilient

Communities &

Local Economy

Enabling Climate Change Resilient Communities and Local

Economy: Ecotown Framework (Ecosystem Based Management)

Institutional

Mechanism to

Deliver Services

Monitoring and

Evaluation

3

Risk Estimation

Risk Evaluation

Hazard Characterization/ Frequency Analysis

Consequence Analysis

DRA model as described under Administrative Order No. 1 (17 September 2010) of President Aquino

DisaterDisaterDisaterDisater Risk Assessment (DRA)Risk Assessment (DRA)Risk Assessment (DRA)Risk Assessment (DRA)

Risk Estimation

Risk Evaluation

Hazard Characterization/ Frequency Analysis

Consequence Analysis

Physical ImpactsFlooding, landslide, etc.

Sectoral ImpactsAgricultural, forestry, water, health and coastal sectors

Vulnerability Analysis

Climate ProjectionsRainfall pattern, temperature

changes

Climate/Disaster Risk and Climate/Disaster Risk and Climate/Disaster Risk and Climate/Disaster Risk and

Vulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRA----VA)VA)VA)VA)

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Climate/Disaster Risk and Climate/Disaster Risk and Climate/Disaster Risk and Climate/Disaster Risk and

Vulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRAVulnerability Assessment (C/DRA----VA)VA)VA)VA)a. Exposure Database

– ClimEx.DB (Climate Change Exposure Database)– Developed under the Climate Twin Phoenix Project

(CCC-UNDP-Aus Govt)b. Damage Curves

– Vulnerability/damage curves for structures– Developed under the Greater Metro-Manila Area –

Risk Analysis Project (GMMA-RAP) of OCD/CSCAND-Aus Govt

c. Climate Change Projectionsd. Flood Inundation modeling/mapse. C/DRA-VA – formulated under the Project ReBUILD

(CCC-UNDP-NZAP)

5

CRB Flood Inundation (1 in 5 yr RRP)

CRB Flood Inundation (1 in 25 yr RRP)

6

7

Planning ScalePlanning ScalePlanning ScalePlanning Scale

a. Temporal scales– Climate projections – for mid-century and late-

century– Monthly variations

b. Spatial scales– Integrated approach – river basins approach– Regional vs local scales

c. Planning levels– Vertical integration(national, sub-national)– Top-down and bottoms-up approach

Planning Planning Planning Planning ScaleScaleScaleScaleVertical integrationVertical integrationVertical integrationVertical integration

Regional plans

Provincial plans

Local plans

CCA/DRR-Enhanced Plans

IEC and Capability Building Support

IEC and Capability Building Support

Mainstreaming of climate change and

DRR concerns

Land Use Planning and Adaptation/DRR

measures

Sustainable Development

8

Challenges and lessons learnedChallenges and lessons learnedChallenges and lessons learnedChallenges and lessons learned

a. Technical expertise/capacity– Build up sub-national technical expertise/capacity– Partnership with key regional line agencies– Partnership with academe– Mentoring and learning-by-doing model

b. Financial/human resources– Flexibility – quantitative vis-à-vis

quantitative/qualitative approach– Support from multi-lateral/bilateral partners

c. Institutionalization/Sustainability– Partnership with provincial government– Participatory and consultative processes

Maram ingM aram ingM aram ingM aram ing SalamatSalamatSalamatSalamat!!!!

Thank You!

Climate Change OfficeClimate Change Commission

2U LPLP Building

Malacanang Complex, San Miguel

Manila, PHILIPPINES

www.climate.gov.ph

info@climate.gov.ph