Presentation: Publics See Trade as Good,But the Benefits ... · Publics See Trade as Good, But the...

Publics See Trade as Good,But the Benefits Are Doubted

Bruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes Peterson Institute for International Economics 9/27/18

September 27, 2018 2

Pew Research Center

• Established 1996

• Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations

• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington

• Research topics: U.S. politicsMedia and the newsSocial trendsReligionInternet and technologyScience Hispanics Global public opinion Migration

• www.pewresearch.org


Methodology

• Survey conducted across 27 countries from May 14 to August 12, 2018, totaling 30,133 respondents

• Based on telephone and face-to-face interviews with nationally representative samples of adults 18 and older

• The margin of sampling error for the completed set of weighted data is ±2.8% - ±5.1%

OVERVIEW

June 22, 2017 4


The Public’s Economic Mood Has Improved Dramatically Since the Early Days of the Financial Crisis

The current economic situation in our country is good

Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.


And U.S., EU, Japanese Economic Sentiment Is Now More Positive Than at Any Time Since 2002

The current economic situation in our country is good

Note: EU median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

46

50

65 U.S.

3636

46 EU

6

28

44 Japan

0

100

2002 2008 2013

%

2018


Against That Economic Backdrop, International Publics Support Trade in Principle, But Many Still Doubt Its Benefits

Note: Medians by country economic categorization. Advanced median excludes U.S.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

74%

36

31

37

88%

47

31

28

83%

56

47

18

U.S. Advanced Emerging

Trade is good

Trade creates jobs

Trade decreasesprices

Trade increases

wages


People Who Think Their Economy is Doing Well Are More Likely to Believe Trade Creates Jobs, Raises Wages

Trade with other countries …

Note: Percentages are global medians based on 24 countries. Greece, Tunisia and Brazil not included in medians due to insufficient sample size.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

53%

4339%

29

Creates jobs Increases wages

Among those who say the economy is good

Among those who say the economy is bad

AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON TRADE

June 22, 2017 9


Americans Less Convinced Than Others Trade is Good

Growing trade and business ties with other countries is a good thing for our country

Note: Nine-country median based on Argentina, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Korea and the UK.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

78

5953

65 66 6874

8778 81 81 84

7883

2002 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Nine-country median

U.S.


Americans’ Support for Trade Ticks Up When the Respondent’s Party Holds the Presidency

Growing trade and business ties with other countries is a good thing for our country


77

56 54

6973 72 71

71

78

6357

61 62 6369

81

2002 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Democrats

Republicans

Obama elected

Trump elected


Americans Have Consistently Felt Better About Trade Than About Trade Agreements

__ is/are good for the U.S.

Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey. “Free trade agreement” data from May 2018 Pew Research Center survey.

78

5953

65 66 6874

49

34

44

47 47

44 4440

35

5243

35

48

59 585150

4552 56

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Free trade agreements

Trade

2018


Americans Are Twice as Likely to Believe Trade is Good for the U.S. as to Think It Creates Jobs or Raises Wages



Does not make a difference

25 24Does not make a difference


28 25

74

21

2014 2018

68%

28%

20

36

50

34

2014 2018

17

31

45

31

2014 2018

35 37

32 32

2014 2018

Decreases pricesIncreases prices

Increases wagesDecreaseswages

Creates jobs

Destroys jobs

Is good

Is bad

2014 2018 Change% %

TOTAL 28 21 -718-29 22 14 -830-49 31 20 -1150+ 30 25 -5HS or less 32 26 -6Some college 29 21 -8College + 23 14 -9Rep/Lean Rep 28 16 -12Dem/Lean Dem 26 24 -2


In 2018, Trade is Less Threatening to Many AmericansThe growing trade and business ties between the U.S. and other countries is a bad thing for

the U.S.

Note: Statistically significant changes in bold.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

2014 2018 Change

% %

TOTAL 50 34 -16Men 46 30 -16Women 55 39 -1618-29 43 30 -1330-49 50 36 -1450+ 55 34 -21Hispanic 37 21 -16Black 59 42 -17White 53 35 -18Rep/Lean Rep 51 35 -16Dem/Lean Dem 48 33 -15


And Fewer Americans Believe Trade Destroys JobsTrade with other countries leads to job losses in the U.S.


2014 2018 Change% %

TOTAL 45 31 -14Men 43 30 -13Women 48 33 -1518-29 43 25 -1830-49 44 35 -950+ 48 32 -16Hispanic 25 21 -4Black 44 39 -5White 50 32 -18Rep/Lean Rep 42 31 -11Dem/Lean Dem 46 31 -15


Men, Women, Young, Old, GOP and Dems Are Less Likely Than in the Past to Believe Trade Lowers Wages

Trade with other countries leads to a decrease in wages in the U.S.



In NAFTA, Americans Are Less Likely to be Supportive of Trade, but More Likely to Say It Lowers Prices


Trade is goodTrade increases

wages Trade creates jobsTrade lowers

prices

% % % %

Canada 89 30 47 29

Mexico 79 27 35 21

U.S. 74 31 36 37

EUROPEANS’ VIEWS ON TRADE

June 22, 2017 18


Europeans Say Trade is Good, but They Doubt it Boosts Wages or Decreases Prices


Note: European median based on countries surveyed in both 2014 and 2018: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain, UK.Source: 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.




35 26

Decreases pricesIncreases prices

Increases wagesDecreaseswages

Creates jobs

Destroys jobs

Is good

Is bad

26 27

35 40

2014 2018

79%85

14%10

2014 2018

28 27

33 32

2014 2018

44 40

2834

2014 2018


Italians Are the Most Wary of Trade Among Europeans


Trade is good

Trade creates jobs

Trade increases wages

Tradelowers prices

% % % %Netherlands 93 61 35 32

Spain 93 58 33 24

Sweden 93 56 36 53

Germany 89 38 27 32

UK 89 49 34 27

Hungary 85 49 38 28

Poland 85 61 52 21

France 83 32 13 35

Greece 82 41 20 28

Italy 64 16 12 25

VIEWS ON TRADE AND JOBS

June 22, 2017 21


A Majority in Emerging Markets Say Trade Creates Jobs

Trade with other countries leads to …


26%

14

22

18

10

21

28

29

21

21

11%

18

7

15

19

22

31

26

26

19

61%

66

61

56

56

52

42

40

35

56

Tunisia

Kenya

Philippines

India

Nigeria

Indonesia

South Africa

Brazil

Mexico

MEDIAN

Job creationJob lossesEmerging economiesDoes not make a

difference


A Smaller Share in Advanced Economies AgreeTrade with other countries leads to …


26%172218102128292126232424242940192624

11%15

1622

2721

1717

2624

353433

3438

3253

5127

61%61

585757

564949

4742

403837

3632

2119

1745

NetherlandsPoland

SpainSouth Korea

IsraelSwedenHungary

UKCanadaRussiaGreece

GermanyAustralia

U.S.FranceJapan

ArgentinaItaly

MEDIAN

Job creationJob lossesAdvanced economiesDoes not make a

difference


Views on Trade/Jobs Have Shifted Up and Down Since 2014Trade with other countries leads to job creation

Note: Only statistically significant changes shown.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

2014 2018 Change% %

U.S. 20 36 +16Poland 51 61 +10France 24 32 +8India 49 56 +7Japan 15 21 +6Mexico 43 35 -8Kenya 75 66 -9Indonesia 63 52 -11Brazil 56 40 -16Tunisia 87 67 -20Argentina 45 19 -26

VIEWS ON TRADE AND WAGES

June 22, 2017 25


Advanced Economies Divided Over Trade’s Impact on WagesTrade with other countries lead to a __ in wages of workers


18%13

2919

2014

1525

312120

2932

4544

3541

4927

56%52

4438

3635

3433

3131

302727

2016

1513

1231

South KoreaPoland

IsraelHungarySweden

NetherlandsUK

SpainU.S.

RussiaCanada

AustraliaGermany

GreeceArgentina

JapanFrance

ItalyMEDIAN

IncreaseDecreaseAdvanced economies22%272135384643343037423632323145433235



By Two-to-One, Emerging Markets Say Trade Boosts WagesTrade with other countries lead to a __ in wages of workers


18%

13

18

21

26

8

25

20

21

20

61%

57

51

48

47

42

39

32

27

47

Kenya

India

Tunisia

Nigeria

Indonesia

Philippines

South Africa

Brazil

Mexico

MEDIAN

IncreaseDecreaseEmerging economies18%

7

27

26

21

49

32

41

48

27



Views on Trade/Wages Have Changed Significantly in Some Countries

Trade with other countries increases workers’ wages

Note: Only statistically significant changes shown.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.

2014 2018 Change% %

Poland 38 52 +14

U.S. 17 31 +14

South Korea 45 56 +11

India 49 57 +8

South Africa 46 39 -7

Indonesia 56 47 -9

Brazil 44 32 -12

Argentina 29 16 -13

Tunisia 73 51 -22

TRADE AND PRICES

June 22, 2017 29


Public in Advanced Economies Divided on Trade/Prices Trade with other countries lead to a __ in the price of products sold


15%16

2825

3621

2421

3237

2935

2834

2755

3253

29

58%47

4643

424040

3937

32323231

302626

2011

35

ArgentinaRussiaGreece

ItalySouth Korea

PolandSpainJapan

GermanyU.S.

CanadaFrance

HungaryAustralia

UKIsrael

NetherlandsSwedenMEDIAN

IncreaseDecreaseAdvanced economies18%252226163226342625353134284015433227



In Emerging Markets Most Think Trade Raises Prices Trade with other countries lead to a __ in the price of products sold


15%

14

18

11

22

15

34

30

21

18

60%

58

57

56

56

52

50

47

45

56

Tunisia

Brazil

South Africa

Philippines

Indonesia

India

Kenya

Nigeria

Mexico

MEDIAN

IncreaseDecreaseEmerging economies

20%

23

22

32

16

9

14

19

31

20



College-educated Adults Are the Most Likely to Say Trade Lowers Prices

Trade with other countries decreases prices

Note: All differences are statistically significant.Source: Spring 2018 Global Attitudes Survey.


All Pew Research Center reports are available online at www.pewresearch.orgBruce StokesDirector, Global Economic Attitudes@bruceestokes

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