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CLIMATESCOPE UGANDA GET FiT Forum 2016 James Sprinz 30 May 2015
CLIMATESCOPEUGANDA
GET FiT Forum 2016
James Sprinz
30 May 2015
1
BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE IS:200 EXPERTS ACROSS SIX CONTINENTS
San
Francisco
Washington DC
Sao Paulo
Cape Town Sydney
Singapore
Munich
London
New DelhiHong
Kong
Tokyo
Beijing
Seoul
New York
North America40
SouthAmerica5
Europe90
Africa30
AsiaPacific35
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
Milan
Zurich
CLIMATESCOPEGLOBAL OVERVIEW
3
● An index ranking emerging economies on their investment environments for clean energy
● Online tool and public data resource
● Report and analytical content
www.global-climatescope.org
WHAT IS CLIMATESCOPE?
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
4
CLIMATESCOPE COVERAGE
26 Latin
American and
Caribbean
nations
19 African
nations
35 Asian
nations, states
and provinces
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
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Note: Clean energy comprises solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, marine, biofuels and small hydro. It excludes large hydro
plants of 50MW capacity or more. Source: Climatescope 2015
ANNUAL NEW CLEAN ENERGY CAPACITY (BARS) AND GROWTH (LINES), 2008–14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD %
GW
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
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Note: Clean energy comprises solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, marine, biofuels and small hydro. It excludes large hydro
plants of 50MW capacity or more. Source: Climatescope 2015
ANNUAL NEW CLEAN ENERGY CAPACITY (BARS) AND GROWTH (LINES) EXC. CHINA, 2008–14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Climatescope exc. China OECD Climatescope exc. China % OECD %
GW
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
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CLIMATESCOPE METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW
● Policy & regulation
● Clean energy penetration
● Price attractiveness
● Market size expectation
● Amount invested
● Funding sources
● Green microfinance
● Cost of debt
ENABLING FRAMEWORKCLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT AND
CLIMATE FINANCING
● Clean energy service providers
● Value chains by clean energy sector
● Financial institutions in clean energy
● Carbon offsets
● Carbon policy
● Corporate awareness
LOW-CARBON BUSINESS AND CLEAN
ENERGY VALUE CHAINS
GREENHOUSE GAS MANAGEMENT
ACTIVITIES
40% 30%
15% 15%
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Source: Climatescope 2015
CLIMATESCOPE 2015 GLOBAL RANKINGS: TOP 10
1.63
1.68
1.69
1.72
1.74
1.81
1.91
1.97
2.12
2.29
Nepal
Uganda
Uruguay
Mexico
Kenya
India
South Africa
Chile
Brazil
China
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
44.151.7 55.7 57.5
84.495.213.1
12.512.4 9.6
11.8
14.8
6.3 6.3
5.0
59.065.1
74.5 73.3
98.5
115.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa LatAm Asia
In 2015 Uganda came in 9th, moving up one place since 2014
UGANDA DEEP DIVE
10
Source: Climatescope 2015
CLIMATESCOPE 2015: UGANDA
0.64 0.20 0.58 0.27 1.68Uganda
Enabling framework Clean energy investment Low-carbon business GHG management
3rd in Africa, 10th globally
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
1.68 out of 5
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ENABLING FRAMEWORK: 0.64
● Clean energy policies
● Power sector structure
● Distributed energy regulatory framework
● Clean energy rural electrification
● Energy access policies
● Policy barriers
POLICY & REGULATION CLEAN ENERGY PENETRATION:
PRICE ATTRACTIVENESS: MARKET SIZE:
0 50 100 150 200
Retail average
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Uganda Global average
2014 retail power price ($/kWh)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Clean energy Non-clean energy
MW
10%
15%
97%
0% 50% 100%
Population using solid
fuels for cooking
Electrification rate
Annual power
demand growth
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
Source: Climatescope 2015
14
Note: includes asset finance and venture capital Source: Climatescope 2015
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
UGANDA CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ($M), 2010–14
50.433.5
158.8
2.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Venture capital Asset finance
Climatescope 2015 only tracked investment
through 2014 – this year’s score should be higher
Clean energy investment score = 0.2
15
Note: includes asset finance and venture capital Source: Climatescope 2015
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
CLIMATESCOPE AFRICA CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN), 2010–15
1,796
831
6,318 6,277
2,320
4,954
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other SSA Uganda Ethiopia Kenya South Africa
17
Source: Climatescope 2015
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
LOW-CARBON BUSINESS: 0.58
0.58
0.29 0.30
Uganda Global average Africa average
Uganda scored much higher than the regional and global average
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Source: Climatescope 2015
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
GREENHOUSE GAS MANAGEMENT: 0.27
Forestry15
Power generation
7
Energy efficiency
2
Methane1
Waste1
26
Carbon offset projects by sector
This year each county’s INDC will be assessed
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CLIMATESCOPE PARAMETER SCORES: UGANDA AND GLOBAL AND REGIONAL AVERAGES
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Enabling framework
Clean energy investment
Low-carbon business
GHG management
Global range Uganda Global average Africa average
Uganda scored above average in every parameter
Source: Climatescope 2015
CLIMATESCOPE 2016
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WHERE CAN UGANDA IMPROVE?
● Biofuels production
˗ Uganda scored 34th globally last year.
˗ The Kakira Sugar bioethanol plant will have an immediate impact on this indicator score
˗ The biofuels blending bill should support long run growth
● Clean energy investment and growth of capacity
˗ Uganda came 32nd for investment and 28th for capacity growth last year.
˗ Financing and commissioning of GET FiT projects will boost these scores in the near term.
˗ Stable and supportive policy is crucial to maintaining this momentum in the long run.
● Financing costs
˗ Uganda one of the lowest scores for cost of debt (48th)
˗ Improving access to and cost of finance must be a priority
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
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Note: At least $60m further investments has been made into the sector without a date given. Data includes funds
raised by intermediaries with pure off-grid solar mandates.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lighting
Global / GOGLA market trends report (forthcoming)
INVESTMENTS IN OFF-GRID SOLAR DEVICE AND SOLAR HOME SYSTEM COMPANIES ($M), 2010–15
Quarterly investment ($m) Cumulative ($m)
0
150
300
450
600
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Undisclosed ormixed
Grants andcrowdfunding
Debt
Equity
Cumulative
GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
Over $500m invested in off-grid
solar companies in 2010–15
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GET FiT Forum | 30 May 2016
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