World Bank Support for Social Safety Nets

Evaluation Findings of the Independent Evaluation Group

Presentation to Civil Society OrganizationsWorld Bank – IMF Annual Meetings 2011

September 21, 2011

1

IEG: Independent Evaluation

• We report to the World Bank Group’s boards directors

• We evaluate for accountability, learning and to contribute to better operational and developmental results

2

Overview

1. Main messages

2. Definitions and context

3. Evaluation questions and methodology

4. Findings

3

Main messages

1. SSN built during stable times can respond to shocks

2. SSNs need good institutions and systems

3. There is more potential for SSNs in LICs

4. Results frameworks need improvement

4

Social Safety Nets are …

“Non-contributory transfers, targeted, in some way, to the poor and vulnerable.”

Such as:• Cash transfer programs• Food and in-kind transfers• Energy, water and housing subsidies• Education and health subsidies programs• Public works programs

5

Social Safety Nets can…

1. Reduce chronic poverty and inequality by increasing consumption by the poorest

2. Improve investments in human capital by the poor

3. Protect the poor and vulnerable from:

• individual or systemic shocks

• the negative effects that can accompany macro-reforms

6

Context

• Recent crises underscore a need for SSNs• Food, fuel, and financial crises increased hardship:

65m more people were pushed into extreme poverty

• Bank-supported SSN programs were growing• US$11.5 billion for 244 projects in 83 countries from

2000-2010; but half in the last 2 years of the decade

IEG had never evaluated SSN support7

Evaluation questions

• How effective and relevant has the Bank been in helping countries establish sound SSNs?

• What lessons were learned?

8

Methodology

• Portfolio reviews of 244 lending projects, trust funds, and analytical work

• Case studies of 30 countries• Staff survey• Thematic background studies (8)• Impact evaluations of safety nets

• 149 IEs, sub-sample of 36 Bank-supported programs, 2 new IEs

9

Findings

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1. Greatest focus on chronic poor…

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SSN Functions (percent of projects)

SSN support focused was on chronic poverty and human development, less on shocks

… but, support increased with recent crises

12

05101520253035404550

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Trends in SSN approvals and commitments

US$ million committed to SSNs # of SSN projects

2. Bank’s approach shifted to greater support for systems & institutions

Involves developing:• data, targeting,

payment, and M&E systems

• coordinated SSN programs appropriate for different groups of poor and vulnerable

13

2000-2005 2006-20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Systemic

Less/not systemic

Shar

e of

cou

ntri

es re

ceiv

-in

g SS

N s

uppo

rt

3. MICs got more attention than LICs

14

MICs 62%

LICs

38%

Number of Operations

MICs

79%

LICs 21%

Lending Amount

Support for SSNs in MICs was higher than in LICs

4. Short-term results were generally positive…

On average, SSN lending performs better than the rest of the Bank’s portfolio

15

74

81

78

88

85 86

65

70

75

80

85

90

LIC (Bank-wide N=343; SSNs N=24)

MIC (Bank-wide N=447; SSNs N=47)

Total (Bank-wide N=790; SSNs N=71)

Bank-wide Safety net projects

Project outcomes rated satisfactory or higher

…but results frameworks need improvement►Greater clarity in project design:

• Just over 50% of projects supporting SSNs mention poverty reduction in their objectives

• Less than 50% of projects have an indicator to measure change in poverty

►Greater planning for long term objectives needed.

16

Main messages

1. SSN built during stable times can respond to shocks

2. SSNs need good institutions and systems

3. There is more potential for SSNs in LICs

4. Results frameworks need improvement

17

World Bank Support to Social Safety Nets

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http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/