Presentation to Member State experts at management Committee

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 28 August 2014

28 August 2014 2!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

Total Butter+ 3,0%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 9,6%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder

and partly skimmed milk

powder+ 16,7%

Cheese+ 0,4%

Fermented milk- 4,3%

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 5,1%

- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20%

Evol

ution

in

%

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development (Jan - Jun 2014 compared to Jan - Jun 2013)

Source : MS' Communications to EurostatRem : June missing for EL, SK, DK in some products

Total Butter+ 2,3%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 12,1%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder

and partly skimmed milk

powder+ 11,7%

Cheese+ 0,1%

Fermented milk- 4,6%

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 5,0%

- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20%

Evol

ution

in

%

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development(Apr 2014 - Jun 2014 compared to Apr 2013 - Jun 2013)

Source : MS' Communications to EurostatRem : June missing for EL, SK, DK in some products

28 August 2014 3

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

EUR/ 100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to J une 14)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

Milk Prices (LTO)

Source :MS’ communications under reg. 562/ 2005 & 479/ 2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http:/ / www.milkprices.nl/ )

28 August 2014 4Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

55

,6

47

,6

46

,2

43

,0

42

,3

42

,0

41

,6

41

,2

38

,6

38

,3

38

,0

37

,9

37

,7

36

,9

36

,0

35

,8

35

,8

35

,7

34

,7

34

,3

34

,1

34

,0

33

,7

33

,6

32

,8

32

,4

29

,6

29

,2

26

,1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

CY FI MT DK EL NL SE IT UK AT DE LU EU IE BE FR ES HR SI PT CZ BG HU SK EE PL LV RO LT

in E

UR/100 kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk Price 2013

Milk Price 2014

Source : Member States (Reg. 479/2010)

( Jun 2014 vs Jun 2013 )

Estimates for DK, IT, SE

28 August 2014 5Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00

kg

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2011 2012 2013 2014 IP 2009

Latest price : 258 EUR/ 100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : -19%


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

Nov

De

c

EU

R/1

00

kg

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2011 2012 2013 2014 IP 2009




150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

Nov

De

c

EU

R/1

00

kg

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2011 2012 2013 2014



28 August 2014 8

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Ju

n Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/

100

kg

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2011 2012 2013 2014

Evolution compared to same period last year : +2%


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Ju

n Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/

100

kg

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2011 2012 2.013 2.014



28 August 2014 9

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

Nov

De

c

EU

R/1

00

kg

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2011 2012 2013 2014



28 August 2014 10

USD/EUR

Source: European Central Bank

US Dollar

1.3192

28 August 2014 11

3.488

3.635

3.230

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000M

ay

07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Fe

b 08

Ma

y 08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Fe

b 09

Ma

y 09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Fe

b 10

Ma

y 10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Fe

b 11

Ma

y 11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Fe

b 12

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov

12

Fe

b 13

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov

13

Fe

b 14

Ma

y 14

Pric

es in

US

D/t

onne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

28 August 2014 12

3.713

4.4504.510

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Apr

12

Jul 1

2

Oct

12

Jan

13

Apr

13

Jul 1

3

Oct

13

Jan

14

Apr

14

Jul 1

4

Pric

es in

US

D/t

onne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


28 August 2014 13

3.363

4.584

5.580

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

Ma

y 07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Fe

b 08

Ma

y 08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Fe

b 09

Ma

y 09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Fe

b 10

Ma

y 10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Fe

b 11

Ma

y 11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Fe

b 12

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov

12

Fe

b 13

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov

13

Fe

b 14

Ma

y 14

Pric

es in

US

D/t

onne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


28 August 2014 14

4.200

5.159

4.740

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

6.000

Ma

y 07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Fe

b 08

Ma

y 08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Fe

b 09

Ma

y 09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Fe

b 10

Ma

y 10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Fe

b 11

Ma

y 11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Fe

b 12

Ma

y 12

Aug

12

Nov

12

Fe

b 13

Ma

y 13

Aug

13

Nov

13

Fe

b 14

Ma

y 14

Pric

es in

US

D/t

onne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


28 August 2014 15

28 August 2014 16

28 August 2014 17

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

40 55 70 89130

168

235

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

J an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2014 compared to 2013 : + 68%

20132014

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

121152 165 155

194236

198

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2014 compared to 2013 : - 4%

20132014

Jan-May 2014 compared to 2013 : - 4%

28 August 2014 18

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

58 46177

326 320406

619

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2014 compared to 2013 : + 67%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

160 153200

167204 188

142

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnesJan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%

2013

2014

Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%

19

EU Dairy Exports to Russia (2013) Version 2

in '000 Tonnes

EU production 1

(2013)EU exports 1-3

(2013)% exports /

prod.

EU exports to Russia 1-3

(2013)

% exports to Russia / exports

% exports to Russia / prod.

Exports to russia in milk equivalents 4

'000 Tons '000 Tons % '000 Tons % '000 Tons

a b c=b/a d e=d/b f=d/a g

Cheese 0406 9 703 787 8% 257 33% 2.7% 1 460

SMP 0402 10 1 092 407 37% 21 5% 1.9% 110

Butter (incl. Butteroil) 0405 2 182 132 6% 37 28% 1.7% 420

Wheypowder ex 0404 10(p) 2 320 ² 515 22% 25 5% 1.1% 160

WMP 0402 2x 698 374 54% 3 1% 0.4% 20

Condensed 0402 9x 1 215 * 251 21% 3 1% 0.2% 10

Fresh products (incl. Yogurts) 0401 + ex 0403(f) 46 495 675 1% 66 10% 0.1% 50

Buttermilk in powder ex 0403 90(p) 31 1 4% -

Whey not in powder ex 0404 10(f) 1 0 0% -

Other Milk constituents 0404 90 62 2 3% -

Finished products 190190 11 +99 572 45 8% -

Food prep. 210690 92+98 1 121 106 9% -

* 2012 figure 2 200~ 1.5 % of total EU milk production

Lactose 1702 xx + 2106 9051 645 152 24% 10 7% 1.6% -

Casein(ate)s ex 3501 135 ² 62 46% 2 3% 1.2% 20

1 DG AGRI - Short Term Outlook - Summer 2014

² EUROSTAT - New Cronos, DG AGRI estimations

³ EUROSTAT - Comext4 based on fat and protein content

20

3%

7%

0%

1%

1%

3%

4%

5%

5%

8%

9%

10%

28%

33%

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

Casein(ate)s

Lactose

Whey not in powder

WMP

Condensed

Other Milk constituents

Buttermilk in powder

Wheypowder

SMP

Finished products (1901)

Food preparations (2106)

Fresh products

Butter

Cheese

'000 Tonnes

EU exports of Dairy products to Russia compared to total EU exports of Dairy products (year 2013)

EU exports to other third countries

EU exports to Russia

Series3

21

4%

4%

0%

1%

1%

1%

2%

4%

5%

8%

9%

10%

26%

29%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Casein(ate)s

Lactose

Whey not in powder

WMP

Condensed

Buttermilk in powder

SMP

Other Milk constituents

Wheypowder

Finished products (1901)

Food preparations (2106)

Fresh products

Butter

Cheese

'000 Tonnes

EU exports of Dairy products to Russia compared to total EU exports of Dairy products (Jan-Jun 2014)

EU exports to other third countries

EU exports to Russia

Series3

22

0 to 200 200 to 300 300 to 400 400 to 1 000 1 000 to 1 400 1 400 to 3 500 3 500 to 9 000 9 000 to 28 000

n/a1 300

400

1 500

3 900

25 600

400

4 100

1 2002 600

21 800

8 900

100

300

1 200

0

500

0

9 400

1 200

8 800

800

600100

400

1 600

1 700

4 600

Source : Eurostat

300

23

0.0% to 0.0% 0.0% to 0.1% 0.1% to 0.2% 0.2% to 0.4% 0.4% to 0.9% 0.9% to 2.6% 2.6% to 11.4% 11.4% to 28.0%

n/a2.9

0.3

1.7

3.5

1.0

15.8

0.2

00

0.8

0.5

0.1

19.8

20.3

0

0.1

0

4.1

1.1

2.5

0.1

00.2

0.7

26.1

0.2

0.3

Source : Eurostat

0

24

0.0% to 0.3% 0.3% to 0.9% 0.9% to 1.5% 1.5% to 6.9% 6.9% to 8.9% 8.9% to 12.9% 12.9% to 47.6% 47.6% to 88.0%

n/a7.8

3.2

9.4

12.2

14.2

87.0

1.5

1.00.5

6.4

8.6

1.1

84.0

65.7

0

0.5

0

12.4

8.9

21.1

0.7

01.8

19.5

63.5

0.9

7.5

Source : Eurostat

0.2

Dairy Exporting countries

Main export destinationsin Mio EUR

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6thin '000 tonnes in '000 tonnes

EU27 153 200 * 15 900 10% Russia United States China Switzerland Saudi Arabia Algeria1 464 788 703 432 366 358

United States 90 865 9 100 10% Mexico China Canada Philippines Indonesia Korea, South Russia1 100 408 263 233 211 208 … 3

Australia 9 480 3 200 34% Japan China Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Russia305 225 162 122 96 70 … 54

Canada 8 450 400 5% United States EU Japan Philippines Egypt Cuba125 16 12 12 11 10

Norway 1 584 200 13% United States EU Australia Canada Russia Singapore31 30 14 11 3 0

263 579 28 800 11%

New Zealand 20 500 ° 19 500 95% China Philippines Un. Arab Emir. Malaysia Indonesia Japan Russia2 822 332 301 294 267 255 … 71

Switzerland 4 101 800 20% EU United States Canada Russia Japan Hong Kong402 62 17 8 5 5

Turkey 15 978 500 3% Iraq Saudi Arabia Azerbaijan Kuwait Syria Un. Arab Emir.330 36 16 12 11 9

Serbia 1 465 100 7% Montenegro Russia EU Bosnia Macedonia Norway18 15 10 8 6 1

Argentina 11 815 2 700 23% Venezuela Brazil Algeria United States China Russia219 204 183 110 99 97

Brazil 32 304 100 0% United States Venezuela Un. Arab Emir. Angola Saudi Arabia EU32 28 15 14 9 8

Uruguay 2 100 1 500 71% Venezuela Brazil Russia China Algeria United States224 154 69 59 34 25

Mexico 10 881 200 2% United States EU Guatemala Saudi Arabia Puerto Rico (U.S.) Ukraine82 61 11 6 5 4

Chile 2 650 400 15% Mexico Un. Arab Emir. China EU Brazil Peru Russia39 25 19 19 15 11 … 2

* : source DG AGRI 105 190 32 995° : Source DCANZ

in Mio EUR

Production of Cow's Milk (FAO 2012)

Total Dairy Exports in Milk equiv. (2013)

Counties affected by the Russian ban

Other Dairy exporting countries

28 August 2014 26

7.000

7.200

7.400

7.600

7.800

8.000

8.200

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

in t

on

ne

s

.

Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

2011 2012 2013 2014

Source:USDA

Jan-Jul 2014 vs 2013 : + 1.7% (real monthly production)

28 August 2014 27Source: Dairy Australia

,500

,600

,700

,800

,900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

in t

on

ne

s

Jul-Jun 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 : + 0.4%

Australian milk production

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

28 August 2014 28Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Jun 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 11.5%

NZ milk production

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

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