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EXPANDING THE INDIA PRESENCE Presentation to Shareholders Extraordinary General Meeting 1 August 2008
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Page 1: Presentation to Shareholders Extraordinary General Meeting 1 …axiata.listedcompany.com/newsroom/PUBLIC_EGM... · 2009-06-26 · No of Telecom circles 23 ... Sector landscape dominated

EXPANDING THE INDIA PRESENCEPresentation to Shareholders

Extraordinary General Meeting

1 August 2008

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-1-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

TRANSACTION RATIONALE

TRANSACTION STEPS / RESOLUTIONS

VALUATION & FUNDING PLAN

INVESTORS’ & ANALYSTS’ FEEDBACK

CONCLUSION

Agenda

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-2-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Transaction rationale

Meets the Investment Criteria

6

The best long term option

5

Accelerate participation in growth through consolidation/

inorganic means

2

India is a must given significant growth

potential

1

Merger of Idea & Spice brings

additional benefits to both parties

4

Idea and Spice is the ideal combination

3

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-3-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

COUNTRY BRIEF

Over 5,000 / over 600,000Cities & Towns / Villages

26.2%Teledensity

3.8%Wireline Penetration

42.6 mnNo. of Wireline Subscribers

23%Wireless Penetration

23 No of Telecom circles

255.9 mnNo. of Wireless Subscribers

30 states and 5 Union TerritoriesStates and Union Territories

1.146 bn Population (Mar’2008E)

India Telecom – A Snapshot

Source: COAI, AUSPI, DoT & TRAI

COMMENTS Second largest wireless telecom market globally- adding c 8 mn subs per month

Growth aided by regulatory initiatives, rapidly falling tariffs & intense competition Subs grown at a CAGR of 83% over last 5 years (Dec’02 to Dec’07)

Sector landscape dominated by 7 fixed line service providers and 12 wireless service providers

• New licenses issued in Jan 08 – will intensify competition further

Industry dominated by mobile services - Subscriber CAGR 56% (Dec ’06 – Dec ’07)

Rapid growth of wireless services anticipated• Population growth and demographic changes• Penetration rates of wireless and associated products currently low

Data as of March 2008

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-4-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

India is a must for TMI given significant potential

India is the fastest growing wireless market by subs and revenues

7m – 8m wireless net adds per month

15 18 22 27 33 41 43 43 44 4314 35 55 96

162256

38 410 1 1 7420

50100150200250300350

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Wireline Wireless

Subs (mn)

41% 42%

63%

85% 90% 97% 100%

129%

23%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Chi

na

Phi

lippi

nes

Thai

land

Kor

ea

Mal

aysi

a

Taiw

an

Sin

gapo

re

Wireless penetration (Mar 2008)

Source: The Mobile World

Wireless subs growth (Dec 06 – Dec 07)

34%

16% 15%11% 10%

6% 6%1%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Indi

a

Indo

nesi

a

Chi

na

Phi

lippi

nes

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land

Sin

gapo

re

Kor

ea

Taiw

an

Source: The Mobile World

1

Source: TRAI, DoT, COAI, AUSPI

Net adds growth per month equivalent to Celcom’s total subscribers

Total headroom for growth in India of 250 – 300 mn is equivalent to the combined growth potential of current TMI portfolio countries and other target counties in South East Asia and South Asia region for TMI.

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-5-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

81146

230

500

663

Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 DoT TargetDec 2010¹

Est Dec2012²

Accelerate participation in growth through consolidation/ inorganic means

2

Extrapolation of India mobile market growth

Potential slow down as mobile penetration level reaches mid 50% range by end of 2012

The ‘India Opportunity’ is now so need to capitalize on the growth today

Source: TRAI, DoT, Ovum, COAI, AUSPINote: 1. Target set by the Government of India2. Ovum estimate

CAGR 05-07 CAGR 07-10 CAGR 10-12:

Mobile subs (‘000s)

68% 30% 15%

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-6-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Idea and Spice is the ideal combination

Current deal expands coverage significantly with no overlaps

NORTH EAST & ASSAM CIRCLES

Idea – Existing Operations (11)

Spice – Existing Operations (2)

Idea – Launch Expected in FY09 (4)

Other States with Idea Licenses (6)

Note: The above is a circle wise map of India displaying telecom circles. The political state boundaries may be different

3

Source: COAI, AUSPI, Idea Disclosures

PAN INDIA PRESENCE – 70% population coverage with > 700m population

NO OVERLAP

# 5 PLAYER ( 28m subscribers ) FROM # 6 (IDEA) AND # 8 (SPICE) RESPECTIVELY

OPPORTUNITY TO LEVERAGE PASSIVE INFRASTRUCTURE- Faster rollout leveraging on Indus Towers (70,000 sites)

IDEA AS A SOLID PARTNER

- Exceeded industry growth with 71% subscriber growth FY07-08. (Industry at 58%)

- Strong partner in the respected Birla Group

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-7-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Merger of Idea & Spice brings additional benefits to both parties

Benefits to TMI

• Low cost Indian Telco model

• Economies of scale & bargaining power

• Indian IT and Telco talent

Benefits to Idea

A Business co-operation Forum to

be formed to facilitate synergies

and knowledge sharing

4

• TMI’s mature market experience – 3G , Mobile Broadband

• Roaming, procurement, product / services (eg- m-remittance

• Capital Infusion

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-8-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

The best option available in India5

AS IS OPERATIONS

AS IS & NATIONAL ROLLOUT

INVEST IN NEW ENTRANTS

EXIT FROM IDEA

ACQUISTION & MERGER WITH IDEA

POTENTIAL FUTURE FINANCIAL IMPACT RISK IMPLICATIONS

• Minimal growth opportunity with 2 circles

• Natural death as new competitors are entering into the 2 circles of operations

• High rollout risk with competition and scarcity of spectrum

• Huge funding requirement and time to rollout

• High rollout risk with competition and scarcity of spectrum

• Huge funding requirements and uncertainty in partners

• Immediate returns but India is no longer an option for TMI. Closed opportunity

• Strong Position to capture the high growth of Indian market through a Pan Indian operator with an established and proven partner

HIGH

VERY HIGH

LOW TO MEDIUM

n/a

VERY HIGH

• Positive but very small

• Significant negative next 4-5 years

• Significant negative next 4-5 years

• Immediate gains from disposal of asset

• Earnings accretive in 2010 and 15-18% of TMI’scontribution in 2012

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-9-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Meets the investment criteria

Note: Certain financial data provided on this slide is based on quarterly releases of Idea and may be unaudited or preliminary.

* Post financing cost

IDEA IS A PROFIT MAKING COMPANY - PAT of INR10,423m (USD 243m) in the year ending March 2008 with a CAGR of 123% from 2006 to 2008

1

2 EARNINGS ACCRETIVE* IN THE FIRST FULL YEAR OF OPERATIONS

3 15-18% OF TMI’S CONSOLIDATED PROFITS - Expected by 2012, (based on existing portfolio) with the proportion increasing going forward

4 PROJECT IRR IN THE RANGE OF MID TO HIGH TEENS- over a 5 years

6

5 IMMEDIATE CASH INJECTION OF USD 1,060 mn- into the combined entity to accelerate rollout

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-10-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

TRANSACTION RATIONALE

TRANSACTION STEPS / RESOLUTIONS

VALUATION & FUNDING PLAN

INVESTORS’ & ANALYSTS’ FEEDBACK

CONCLUSION

Agenda

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-11-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Approvals sought from shareholders at the EGM

Ordinary Resolution 1: Proposed subscription by TMI Mauritius Ltd of 464,734,670 new ordinary shares of Rs.10 each in Idea Cellular Limited (“Idea”)

Ordinary Resolution 2: Proposed mandatory general offer by Idea together with TMI, TMI Mauritius Ltd, TMI India Ltd and Green Acre Agro Services Private Limited (“GAASPL”), as persons acting in concert (“PAC”) with Idea, to acquire the remaining 137,985,050 ordinary shares of Rs.10 each in Spice Communications Limited (“Spice”), not held by Idea and the PAC

Ordinary Resolution 3: Proposed merger of Spice and Idea and option for TMI group to acquire additional Spice shares (to be converted to Idea shares under the Proposed Merger) from GAASPL

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-12-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Conditionality

Proposed Subscription The Proposed Subscription is not conditional upon any other proposals.

Proposed Offer The Proposed Offer is not conditional upon any other proposals

Proposed Merger The Proposed Merger is conditional upon the Proposed Subscription and

Proposed Offer

Other than the above, there is no conditionality among the Proposals

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-13-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Shareholding Structure of Idea and Spice (pre announcement)

IDEA

STRUCTURE OF IDEA

BIRLA GROUP COMPANIES*

OTHER SHAREHOLDERS

57.7%

42.3%

SPICE

STRUCTURE OF SPICE

MODI GROUP ENTITIES

OTHER SHAREHOLDERS

40.8%

20.0%

TMI India Ltd

39.2%

The shareholding structures are as on 24 June 2008, a day prior to the announcement of the proposed transactions

*Includes Birla Group Companies which are classified as Promoters; i.e. Aditya Birla Nuvo, Grasim Industries, Hindalco Industries and Birla TMT HoldingsNote: 1. The diagrams have been simplified for illustration purposes, only TMI holdings have been described in detail2. The shareholdings presented are based on issued and subscribed share capital

TMI Mauritius Ltd

TMI

100%

100%

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-14-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Ordinary Resolution 1 :Proposed Subscription of Idea Shares

Proposed subscription by TMI Mauritius Ltd of 464,734,670 new ordinary shares of Rs.10 each in Idea Cellular Limited (“Idea”)

POTENTIAL SHAREHOLDINGSTRUCTURE OF IDEA POST PROPOSED SUBSCRIPTION

IDEA

BIRLA GROUP COMPANIES

OTHER SHAREHOLDERS

49.0%

36.0%

TMI Mauritius

TMI

14.99%

100%

TMI could become the second largest shareholder in Idea post the proposed subscription of shares

Note: 1. The diagrams have been simplified for illustration purposes, only TMI holdings have been described in detail2. The shareholding presented is based on issued and subscribed capital

Ordinary Resolution 1

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-15-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Ordinary Resolution 2 : Proposed MGO of remaining shares in Spice not held by TMI & Idea

Proposed mandatory general offer by Idea together with TMI, TMI Mauritius Ltd, TMI India Ltd and Green Acre Agro Services Private Limited (“GAASPL”) as persons acting in concert (“PAC”) with Idea, to acquire the remaining 137,985,050 ordinary shares

of Rs.10 each in Spice not held by Idea and the PAC

SPICE

Idea

GAASPL

41.2%

9.8%

TMI India Ltd

49.0%

TMI Mauritius Ltd

TMI

100%

100%

POTENTIAL SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE OF SPICE POST PROPOSED MGO

The above assumes 100% acceptance to the MGO and assumes purchase of Spice shares in the MGO by TMI India, Idea and GAASPL

Note: 1. The diagrams have been simplified for illustration purposes, only TMI holdings have been described in detail2. Assumes purchase of 49% of shares offered in MGO by TMI India, 49% by GAASPL and remaining by Idea. Actual purchases would be determined by number of shares tendered and foreign ownership limits in India

MGO of Spice Shares not held by TMI & Idea

SPICE

Others

39.2%

TMI India Ltd Idea

40.8%

20.0%MGO MGO

GAASPL

As a result of the acquisition of Modi Group shareholding in Spice by Idea, an obligation to carry out a MGO is triggered

in accordance with SEBI Takeover Regulations

GAASPL is a vehicle for the Birla Group

Ordinary Resolution 2

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-16-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Ordinary Resolution 3 : Proposed Merger of Spice and Idea

Proposed merger of Spice and Idea – Spice shareholders to receive 49 Idea shares for every 100 Spice shares held by them

POTENTIAL SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE OF IDEA POST PROPOSED SUBSCRIPTION, MGO & MERGER

IDEA

BIRLA GROUP COMPANIES

OTHER SHAREHOLDERS

46.1%

33.8%

TMI Mauritius

TMI

14.1%*

100%

GAASPL

1.0%

TMI India

100%

5.0%

TMI could, directly or through subsidiaries, hold 19.1% in Idea if all the proposals are completed and assuming 100% response tothe MGO. In addition, TMI would have the option to acquire GAASPL stake in Idea (accrued from Spice shares acquired in MGO)

Note: 1. The diagrams have been simplified for illustration purposes, only TMI holdings have been described in detail2. Assumes purchase of 49% of shares offered in Spice MGO by TMI India, 49% by GAASPL and remaining by Idea. Actual purchases would be determined by number of shares tendered and foreign ownership limits in India3. The shareholding presented is based on issued and subscribed capital* due to the dilution on account of the merger, as new shares are issued to Spice shareholders.

Ordinary Resolution 3

SPICE

TMI India Ltd Idea

41.2%49.0%

GAASPL

9.8%

Merge with Idea

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-17-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Transaction step 1

Transaction steps# of shares

issued/purchased by TMI in Idea (m)

1Preferential issuance of Idea shares to TMI Rs 72,945 m

(US$1,699 m)

464.7 14.99%

PROPOSED SUBSCRIPTION BY TMI MAURITIUS LTD OF 464,734,670 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF INDIAN RUPEE 10 EACH IN IDEA CELLULAR LIMITED

ORDINARY RESOLUTION 1

• Subscription represents approximately 14.99% of the enlarged issued and paid up share capital of Idea

Cumulative % stake of TMI in Idea

Note: 1) For the purpose of this document exchange rate has been assumed at 1 US$ = INR 42.94

Total outlay for TMI

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-18-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Transaction step 2

Transaction stepsTMI’s stake in

Spice pre MGO

2

Idea acquires Modi Group stake in Spice, participate in Spice MGO as a person acting in concert

Rs5,227 m

(US$122 m)

49.0%

PROPOSED MANDATORY GENERAL OFFER (“MGO”) BY IDEA TOGETHER WITH TMI, TMI MAURITIUS, TMI INDIA LTD AND GREEN ACRE AGRO SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED, AS PERSONS ACTING IN CONCERT (“PAC”) WITH IDEA, TO ACQUIRE THE REMAINING 137,985,050 ORDINARY SHARES OF RS.10 EACH IN SPICE COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED, NOT HELD BY IDEA AND THE PAC

ORDINARY RESOLUTION 2

• As a result of the acquisition of MCPL (MCorp Global Communications Private Limited) shareholding in Spice by Idea, an obligation to carry out a MGO is triggered in accordance with SEBI Takeover Regulations

• MGO is made to the remaining Spice shares not held by Idea and PAC after Spice acquisition representing approximately 20% of the issued and paid-up share capital of Spice

• TMI will acquire 49% of Spice Shares under the Proposed Offer

TMI’s stake in Spice post MGO

39.2%

Total outlay for TMI

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-19-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Transaction step 3

Transaction steps# of shares

issued/purchased by TMI in Idea (m)

3Merger of Spice into Idea (49 Idea shares for 100 Spice shares)

– 165.7 19.1%

PROPOSED MERGER OF SPICE AND IDEA

ORDINARY RESOLUTION 3

• Proposed Merger will involve the merger of Spice into Idea whereby all Spice Shares shall be exchanged for Idea Shares on a basis of 49 Idea shares for every 100 Spice Shares held.

• Upon completion of the Proposed Merger, TMI Group equity interest in Idea will increase to 19.1%

• TMI also has the option to purchase Green Acre stake in Idea corresponding to Spice shares acquired by Green Acre

Cumulative % stake of TMI in Idea

Total outlay for TMI

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-20-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Complete Transaction steps1

• TMI has earned ability to equity account Idea stake• TMI has option to purchase Green Acre stake in Idea corresponding to Spice shares

acquired by Green Acre in MGO

Note:

1 Numbers mentioned in this slide have been calculated assuming 100% response to the MGO. Actual numbers will depend on the response to the MGO and could differ from the numbers presented in this slide

Transaction steps# of shares

issued/purchased by TMI in Idea (m)

1Preferential issuance of Idea shares to TMI 464.7 14.99%

2

Idea acquires Modi Group stake in Spice, participate in Spice MGO as a person acting in concert

– 14.99%

3Merger of Spice into Idea (49 Idea shares for 100 Spice shares)

– 165.7 19.1%

TOTAL Rs 78,172 m (US$1,821 m) 630.4 19.1%

Cumulative % stake of TMI in Idea

The transaction is expected to complete by 2Q 2009

Total outlay for TMI

Rs 72,945 m (US$1,699 m)

Rs 5,227 m (US$122 m)

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-21-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

TRANSACTION RATIONALE

TRANSACTION STEPS / RESOLUTIONS

VALUATION & FUNDING PLAN

INVESTORS’ & ANALYSTS’ FEEDBACK

CONCLUSION

Agenda

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-22-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Source: Company filings, consensus estimates, TheMobileWorld.

EV/EBITDA (T+1)*

TMI’s acquisition is in line with recent Indian telco precedent multiples

14.0

12.5

15.0

16.1

17.3

0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0

HTIL/Hutch Essar

TMI/Idea(Blended)

Maxis/Aircel

Vodafone/Bharti

Vodafone/HutchEssar

EV/EBITDA (x)

14.5

• Recent acquisitions in India come with a premium due to the expectations of high growth and scarcity of assets.

• However the implied premium of TMI’s acquisition is still in line with recent comparable transactions when compared using the low end multiple of 12.5x and high end of multiple of 14.5x. A 2009 multiple is used as the transaction is expected to complete by 2nd Quarter 2009

12.5x

13.4x

14.5x

Effective valuation of entire transaction. TMI’s 39.2% in Spice valued at cost of

acquisition in 2006

Effective valuation of entire transaction. TMI’s 39.2% in Spice valued at pre-

announcement price

Effective valuation of entire transaction. TMI’s 39.2% in Spice valued at

transaction price for swap with Idea

IMPLIED EV/EBITDA 2009E of entire transaction

12.5 14.513.4

Range of Multiples

LOW

HIGH

Spice valued at investment cost of USD179m

Spice valued using pre announcement price if INR52 (as of 6 of June) before news flows of transaction

Spice valued at open offer price of INR 77, implying Idea price of INR157

Note :

The valuation includes the transaction of the preferential offer of Idea shares, Spice MGO and merger of Spice into Idea. The valuation variable is the value of Spice which TMI has viewed as its investment cost in 2006 in arriving at a blended multiple of 12.5x

Implied Valuation Multiple range are in line with comparables

* EBITDA based on forward 12 months consensus. Idea multiple based on 2009 estimates

Most Analysts had used this approach

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-23-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

37.3% 29.3% 21.5%

47.0%

77.0%

0%20%40%60%80%

Premium toannouncement

- 24 June

Premium to 3month VWAP

Premium to 6month VWAP

India M&Apremium -before 3months

India M&Apremium -before 6months

Pre

miu

m

58.4%49.3%

40.2%

Premium is in line with past M&As

Source: Factset, Bloomberg-*As at 14 Jul 2008- market price per share is the closing price as per date of announcement

Deal announced when Idea is off its peak price

Effective premium for Idea compared against historical prices

60

90

120

150

180

7/03/2007 9/28/2007 12/26/2007 3/24/2008 6/19/2008

Sha

re p

rice

(INR

)

Idea

Transaction announcement:24 June 2008

Note: Based on effective price paid for Idea in the range of INR 136.2 ps – INR 157.2 ps

Indian M&As

• The premium is analysed against the recent and historical VolumeWeighted Average Price (VWAP) of Idea as the traded price has fluctuated over the last year . The last traded price may not reflect the intrinsic price of Idea

• Premium is in line with recent Indian M&As

• Examples of past acquisitions which were perceived by the market to be expensive include the following:

– Vodafone’s entry into Bharti in Oct ’05 was at market price of INR 328.35 per share and partially exited in Feb ‘07 at market price of INR 752 per share.

– Tata exited Idea with an implied 100% equity value of INR91.5 bnwhile the market capitalisation of Idea is now at INR216.5 bn*

INR157

VS.

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-24-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

• In the interim we have several bridging financing facilities in place ranging from 6 months to a year to finance the transaction.

• Combination of USD and Ringgit Malaysia to mitigate the foreign exchange movements.

FINANCING THE TRANSACTION

BRIDGING LOAN

• We will announce our funding plan for the transaction within 3-6 months • Structure will be aimed at optimising the capital structure of the company and minimisedilution impact to shareholders.

FUNDING PLAN

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-25-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

TRANSACTION RATIONALE

TRANSACTION STEPS / RESOLUTIONS

VALUATION & FUNDING PLAN

INVESTORS’ & ANALYSTS’ FEEDBACK

CONCLUSION

Agenda

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-26-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

• Largely agree with the strategic rationale of the acquisition and the strong potential of the Indian market. Remaining as sub scale would be value destructive.

• Acknowledge that premium is on the high side but given the strategic case and acquisition multiples that are in line with precedent transactions, investors largely understand the premium.

• Primary concern to be addressed moving forward is the funding plan for this transaction.

FEEDBACK FROM INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS & ANALYSTS

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

• Idea acquisition, though gives TMI a meaningful exposure in the fast growing Indian mobile market, we cannot deny that this is an expensive acquisition. - Macqaurie

• Transaction mildly dilutive on its own given it is acquiring a minority stake at a premium to trading price. Longer term makes strategic sense as it largely enhances TMI’s footprint from sub scale operations. Deal to be considered in conjunction with TMI’s regional expansion plans as India had been its weak spot. - UBS

• Recent de-rating has been misdirected. TMI will have a meaningful exposure in the world’s second (India) most populous country with strong market position. – ABN AMRO

ANALYSTS

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-27-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

TRANSACTION RATIONALE

TRANSACTION STEPS / RESOLUTIONS

VALUATION & FUNDING PLAN

INVESTORS’ & ANALYSTS’ FEEDBACK

CONCLUSION

Agenda

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-28-COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Conclusion

The combined entity has the potential to become one of the largest players in the wireless telecom market in India, one of the largest markets (apart from China) in the world

The best option for faster, most economical and least risk investment for an India-wide presence to capture window of growth opportunity now and position against bigger players and new entrants

A unique proposition of both accelerated growth potential and earnings accretive by 2010with lower execution risks

The only real option for TMI

Page 30: Presentation to Shareholders Extraordinary General Meeting 1 …axiata.listedcompany.com/newsroom/PUBLIC_EGM... · 2009-06-26 · No of Telecom circles 23 ... Sector landscape dominated

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THANK YOUwww.tmigroup.com


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