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Presentation to the Presentation to the Overseas Development InstituteOverseas Development Institute Friday, 30 January 2004Friday, 30 January 2004London
Development Cooperation Development Cooperation Report 2003Report 2003
Presentation by Richard Manning, Presentation by Richard Manning, Chair of the Development Assistance Chair of the Development Assistance
Committee to the OECDCommittee to the OECD
2
Report Highlights Report Highlights
Aid in ContextAid in Context
Aid volumeAid volume
Aid allocation Aid allocation
Aid effectivenessAid effectiveness
Aid policy controversiesAid policy controversies
3
Aid in Context (1)Aid in Context (1)
Significant progress in poverty Significant progress in poverty reduction, notably Asiareduction, notably Asia
Serious shortfalls in health and Serious shortfalls in health and environmentenvironment
Mixed picture on education and on Mixed picture on education and on gendergender
Progress towards Millennium Development GoalsProgress towards Millennium Development Goals
4
MDG Charts MDG Charts
People living on less than $1/day (%)
0
10
20
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Progress 1990 - 1999
Average path to goal
5
MDG Charts MDG Charts
People living on less than $1/dayin Sub-Saharan Africa (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Progress 1990 - 1999
Average path to goal
6
MDG Charts MDG Charts
Deaths of children under 5 per 1000 live births
020406080
100120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Progress 1990 - 2001
Average path to goal
8
MDG Charts MDG Charts
Net primary enrollment (%)
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Progress 1990/91 - 2000/01
Average path to goal
9
MDG Charts MDG Charts
Ratio of girls to boys in primary school (%)
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005
Progress 1990/91 - 2000/01
Average path to goal
10
Data sources: Sudhir Shetty’s study, September 2003.
All targets are met At least one target is met None of the targets is met
Poverty Education Health Environment Poverty Education Health Environment
Benin
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Madagascar
Mali
Mauritania
Mozambique
Tanzania
Uganda
With better policies, institutions and additional external resources
With current policies, institutions, and external resources
Potential impact of additional ODA on MDGs’ achievement
Potential impact of additional ODA on MDGs’ achievement
11
Aid in Context (2)Aid in Context (2)
Development first and foremost the Development first and foremost the responsibility of developing countries.responsibility of developing countries.
Their policies and institutions critical to progress.Their policies and institutions critical to progress.
Roles for Governments, Parliaments, Private Sector, Roles for Governments, Parliaments, Private Sector, Civil Society.Civil Society.
But OECD policies also critical in setting enabling environment:But OECD policies also critical in setting enabling environment:
- trade/ agriculture/ debt/ migration/security.- trade/ agriculture/ debt/ migration/security.
Need “policies as if development mattered”.Need “policies as if development mattered”.
The Importance of PoliciesThe Importance of Policies
12
Aid in context (3) Aid in context (3)
Aid and private flowsAid and private flows
Chart 2.2: DAC members' resource flows to developing countries, 1980-2002
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2002
Sh
are
of
DA
C G
NI
(%)
Other Private
Directinvestment
Net Grantsby NGOs
Other Official
FlowsODA
13
Evolution of Aid Flows 1980-2006Evolution of Aid Flows 1980-2006
0.34
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
% o
f G
NI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OD
A (
2001
US
D b
illio
n)
ODA as a % of GNI (left scale)
Total ODA(right scale)
0.22
0.34
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
% o
f G
NI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OD
A (
2001
US
D b
illio
n)
ODA as a % of GNI (left scale)
Total ODA(right scale)
0.22
0.34
0.23
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
% o
f G
NI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OD
A (
2001
US
D b
illio
n)
ODA as a % of GNI (left scale)
Total ODA(right scale)
0.29
0.22
0.34
0.23
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
% o
f G
NI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
OD
A (
2001
US
D b
illio
n)
ODA as a % of GNI (left scale)
Total ODA(right scale)
14
2006 outcome depends crucially on five donors 2006 outcome depends crucially on five donors
Net ODA
2002 Anticipated ODA
2006
Increment
United States 13.3 19.5 6.2 United Kingdom 4.9 6.9 2.0 France 5.5 7.4 1.9 Italy 2.3 4.2 1.9 Germany 5.3 7.1 1.8 Sub-total 31.4 45.1 13.8 All other DAC members 26.9 31.7 4.8
TOTAL 58.3 76.8 18.6
US$ billion (at 2002 prices and exchange rates)
Table 1.1 Anticipated ODA - 2006
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Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
more performance-linkedmore performance-linked
Aid is becoming:Aid is becoming:
Share to quintiles 4 and 5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Share to quintiles 1 and 2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
16
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
more allocated to governance and healthmore allocated to governance and health
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01
%
Education Water Health Governance and other
17
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
at the expense of production sectors, at the expense of production sectors, including agriculture and energyincluding agriculture and energy
0
5
10
15
20
1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01
%
Agriculture Industry
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01
%
Transport Energy Banking&Business
18
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
food and commodity aid are down but food and commodity aid are down but humanitarian aid up ; debt relief fluctuateshumanitarian aid up ; debt relief fluctuates
0
10
20
30
40
1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01
%
Emergency AssistanceDebt Relief
Commodity Aid and Programme AssistanceFood Aid
19
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
the share to least developed and low-the share to least developed and low-income countries is little changedincome countries is little changed
Share of total ODA to least developed and low-income countries
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
but some evidence of shift towards but some evidence of shift towards AfricaAfrica
20
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1992
2002
- multilateral share is little changed- multilateral share is little changed
21
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
- the share to the UN system and to - the share to the UN system and to the EC has risen slightly the EC has risen slightly
IDA & RDBs share
0%10%20%30%40%50%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
EC Share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
UN Share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
22
Aid Allocation Aid Allocation
- - but concessional spending by multilateral but concessional spending by multilateral development banks has risen because of development banks has risen because of recycling of repaymentsrecycling of repayments
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EC UN IDA & RDBs
Co
nsta
nt
2000 $
bn
1992
2001
- European Commission the third largest source of funds after US and Japan
23
Aid Effectiveness (1)Aid Effectiveness (1)
Crucial issue and central to DAC roleCrucial issue and central to DAC role
Hard to assess : need for better evaluationHard to assess : need for better evaluation
Surprising range of aid and activitiesSurprising range of aid and activities
Over $100m $10-100m $1m to $9.99m Under $1m
% by value 25 42 24 9 % by number 0.2 2 12 85
24
Aid effectiveness (2)Aid effectiveness (2)
Some progress aroundSome progress around- Poverty Reduction Strategies- Poverty Reduction Strategies- Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks- Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks- Harmonisation and Alignment- Harmonisation and Alignment
Important Work of DAC Aid Effectiveness Working PartiesImportant Work of DAC Aid Effectiveness Working Parties
- turning principle into practice- turning principle into practice
- predictability- predictability
- financial management and procurement- financial management and procurement
- managing for results- managing for results
Tackling the problems of weak states, post-conflict, Tackling the problems of weak states, post-conflict, and poor performersand poor performers
From Rome to ParisFrom Rome to Paris
25
Constructive Policy Dialogue Constructive Policy Dialogue
Growth or poverty reduction?Growth or poverty reduction?
Public or private?Public or private?
Social sectors or production and infrastructure?Social sectors or production and infrastructure?
Projects or programmes?Projects or programmes?
26
Aid at least USD 75 billion (at 2002 prices and exchange rates). Significant increase in proportion to least developed and other
low income countries, and particularly to the good performers. Well-considered interventions in the poor performers. Declining proportion of emergency and humanitarian aid. Increase in untied aid. Developing countries improving services to the poor but also
mobilising greater domestic resources. Much more aid aligned to local priorities, programmes and
systems, and shown in recipient budgets. Much more harmonisation. Bulk of increased aid involves a genuine transfer of resources
and Technical Cooperation demonstrably more efficient. More progress towards MDG’s, especially in Africa, as a result.
My hopes for 2006My hopes for 2006