Date post: | 18-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
View: | 216 times |
Download: | 2 times |
Presentation Topic :Presentation Topic :
Modeling Human Vaccinating Behaviors Modeling Human Vaccinating Behaviors On a Disease Diffusion NetworkOn a Disease Diffusion Network
PhD Student : Shang XIASupervisor : Prof. Jiming LIU
Department of Computer Department of Computer ScienceScience
August 31, August 31, 2009 2009
10th Postgraduate Research Symposium
ContenContent:t:
1
2
Research Motivation & Objectives
Disease Diffusion Dynamics
3 Individual Behaviors and Interactions
4 AOC Modeling for Local-Global Relationship
Page 1/15
5 Conclusions
In recent years, the emergence of vital epidemic which spreads all over the world have greatly endangered the public health and cause great social impacts.
• Swine Flu Spreading Map
Research Background
SARS, • 2002.11 ~ 2003.07• 8,096 known infected cases and 774 deaths worldwide
Bird Flu, (H5N1) • Recent Years• 65 outbreaks in 2006; 55 in 2007; 11 in 2008.
Swine Flu, (H1N1) • 2009.04 ~ Now• 177,699 infected cases and 1,126 deaths (Aug. 6th)
Page 2/15
Swine Flu World Wide SpreadingSwine Flu World Wide Spreading
04/24/2009 05/04/2009 05/26/2009
06/16/2009 07/06/2009 07/30/2009
Data Source:[1] WHO, ECDC, CPC, HPA (UK), governments [2] BBC Website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8083179.stm
Page 3/15
Research Motivation
Disease Diffusion on Human Social Contact Network.
Human is the host of many severe infectious disease. Human’s traveling and interaction spread infection worldwide.
Disease Diffusion changes human’s behavioral pattern. Decision making for vaccination or not.
Individual changes its social interactions.
Human’s contact pattern and demography features characterize disease diffusion dynamics.
Human social contact is the medium of disease diffusion. Human demographical characteristics influence disease infection.
Page 4/15
Research Objectives
Local Individual Reaction PatternLocal Individual Reaction Pattern
Relationship ?Relationship ?
Global Disease Diffusion DynamicsGlobal Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Human Interaction Network Human Interaction Network Disease Infection Model Disease Infection Model
Human Behavioral Mechanism Human Behavioral Mechanism Disease Diffusion Dynamics Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Local-Global Relationship Problem Local-Global Relationship Problem
Page 5/15
Complex Social Disease Diffusion
System
Disease Infection ModelSIV Percolation Model
Individual States in Network Susceptible Individual Infected Individual Vaccinated Individual
Epidemic Transmission in Network
Individual States Transition
Neighbor Infections. Infected individuals die or recover. Vaccination escape potential infection.
Random Selection for a neighbor susceptible. Selection Probability in terms of contact patterns.
( )ij
Trans i jik
k All
wP
w
Page 6/15
1ijw
4ijw
9ijw
3ijw
2ijw
7ijw
8ijw
6ijw
5ijw
Short Range Routine MobileShort Range Routine Mobile
Long Range Chance TravelingLong Range Chance Traveling
Trajectory from home to workplace; Regular shopping in nearby supermarket; Visiting familiar friends or customers.
Enjoying vacations abroad; Business trip to other regions;
Social Contact Network
Human Mobility Dynamics
Human Social Contact Network (1)
Scale Free Network
Page 7/15
Human Social Contact Network (2)
Heterogeneity in demography difference
Heterogeneity in community structure
Disease - Independent host parameters Ages, Gender, Occupation and so on.
Community structure by contact pattern. Community structure by demography characteristics
Disease - Dependent host parameters
Current health status, Susceptibility, Disease transmission rate, etc.
Heterogeneity in contact pattern
Degree Distribution: Neighbor Contacts Edge Weight: Contact Frequency
Page 8/15
Individual Behavioral Mechanism (1)
Individual Vaccination Dilemma
Herd Immunity Dilemma:The individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high
coverage levels. So the individual incline to persuade other instead of itself to adopt the vaccination.
Self-Interest Decision
Page 9/15
Risk of Vaccination Risk of Infection
Self-Trust Experience Group Psychology Irrational Predictions
Individual Behavioral Mechanism (2)
Individual Decision Making Dynamics Individual Decision Making Dynamics
Perceived Payoff for Vaccination or notPerceived Payoff for Vaccination or not
Records of History Decision MakingRecords of History Decision Making
Environment EstimationEnvironment Estimation
Individuals’ Biased PreferenceIndividuals’ Biased Preference
Environment Evaluation ?V NP P
VaccinationChoice
Non-vaccinationChoice
History Experience
Individual Biased Preference Rules
Y N
W3W2W1
Decision Making Mechanism
Page 10/15
Local - Global Relationship Modeling
Autonomy Oriented Computing
“ AOC emphasize the modeling of autonomy in the entities of a complex system and the self-organization of them in achieving a specific goal ”
-- By Liu (2005)AOC Modeling Framework
Natural System Identification Artificial System Construction Performance Measurement
Page 11/15
AOC Modeling
Natural System Identification
Artificial System Construction
Performance Measurement
Disease Infection Model Individual Contact Network
Individual Interaction Patterns Individual Behaviors Mechanism
Vaccination Patterns Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Multi-Agent System
Autonomous Entities & Self-Organization
Local-Global Relationship
Page 12/15
Result Evaluation Criteria
Social Vaccination Dynamics
Disease Diffusion Dynamics
The proportion of vaccinated individuals.
The Efficacy of Vaccination. •The proportion of vaccinated individuals which are infected by its infectious neighbors.•The proportion of non-vaccinated individuals which are also infected.
The proportion of infected individuals in the whole population.
Page 13/15
The mass outbreak in a certain community.
Individual State Change
Global Epidemic Spreading Dynamics
Disease Diffusion Dynamics Local-Global
Relationship
Local Interaction
Individual Decision Making
History Records
Environment Evaluation
Individual Decision Making
History Records
Environment Evaluation
Social Contact Network
Individual State Transition
Individual Vaccination Choice
Disease Infection
Population Immunization Patterns
Individual Vaccination Decision
Epidemic Spreading Dynamics
Individual State Transition Conclusion
Social Contact Network
Entities Infection Model
Decision Making
Vaccination Dynamics
Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Local Behaviors
Global Dynamics
Page 14/15