Monica Capobelli, PE
Chiara Crosti, PhD, PE
Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE
Il comportamento umano da comparsa a
protagonista: modellazione dell’evacuazione
di un capannone industriale
VALUTAZIONE E GESTIONE
DEL RISCHIO NEGLI INSEDIAMENTI
CIVILI ED INDUSTRIALI
VGR 2016
Roma, 13 - 15 Settembre 2016
Istituto Superiore Antincendi
Via del Commercio, 13
14/09/2016Il comportamento umano da comparsa a protagonista:
modellazione dell’evacuazione di un capannone industriale
December 31 2015
The Address Downtown Dubai Hotel
15 injured
1 dead
heart attack from the smoke and over-
crowding during an evacuation
1/2514/09/2016Il comportamento umano da comparsa a protagonista:
modellazione dell’evacuazione di un capannone industriale
April 26 2013
Psychiatric hospital – Dmitrovsky
district (Moscow)
2:00 development of fire
38 dead: 36 patients and 2
healthcare assistants
3 survivors
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NUOVO CODICE DI PREVENZIONE INCENDI
D.M
03/08/2015
“Approvazione di norme tecniche di prevenzione incendi, ai sensi
dell’articolo 15 del decreto legislative 8 marzo 2006, n. 139”
OBIETTIVI Disporre di un testo unico
Semplificare
Adottare regole meno prescrittive, più prestazionali e flessibili
Prevedere la possibilità di scegliere fra diverse soluzioni
Favorire l’utilizzo dell’ingegneria antincendio
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ASET VS RSET
BASIC PRINCIPLE ASET > RSET
RSET : Required safe escape time
ASET : Available safe escape time by a fire model or similar tools
𝒕𝑹𝑺𝑬𝑻 = ∆𝒕𝑫𝑬𝑻 + ∆𝒕𝑨 + (∆𝒕𝑷𝑹𝑬 + ∆𝒕𝑻𝑹𝑨𝑽)
MILLING
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HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN FIRE
Human behavior in fire:
how people respond to several cues
Awareness
Beliefs
Attitudes
Motivations
Decisions
Behaviors
Coping strategiesStudy of human
behavior in fire
Engineering
Architecture
Computer Science
Mathematics
Law
Sociology
Psychology
Human Factors
Communications
Ergonomics
COMPLEXITY
• Many situations cannot be
simulated in laboratory
• Data, extracted from drills
without surprise, stress and
panic, are not very reliable
• It is typically not permitted to
deliberately expose participants
to real fire conditions
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LITERATURE REVIEW
The pre-recognition years from the 1900s to the 1970s
1909: design of the Hudson Terminal Building
1927: first edition of Building Code (NFPA)
1935: “Post-War Building studies, No. 29” (Great Britain)
1955: Togawa found an equation for the “time required to escape”
1956: John Bryan investigated the Arundel Park fire incident and verified
a reentry behavior by members of family groups
1969: Pauls started long term studies and observations of many evacuation drills in
tall buildings.The developed “drill” method became one of the key methods for
studying the evacuation behavior
1972: Wood analyzed the behavior of more than 2000 people in nearly 1000 fires
Behavior of male in emergency was different from females
The studies of human
behavior in fire
The pre-recognition years (Exploration of the key topics)
The productive years (Rapid development)
The Performance Code incentive years
(The interpretation of fire safety of building changes)
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LITERATURE REVIEW
1973: report of the national commission on fire prevention and control entitled
«America Burning». Included human behavior primarily to the educational aspects of
fire prevention
1972-1982: National Research Council of Canada conducted many observations
that examined people’s movement
1975: First International meeting at NBS
1975: J. Keating and E. Lotus from the University of Washington published «People
care in fire emergency-psychological aspects
1978:“Planning for Foot Traffic Flow in buildings” by Predtechenkii and Milinskii
1979: Bryan and Di Nenno studied the apartment fire in Georgia and they identified
the «clustering phenomenon»
During the 1970s and 1980s, the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) through the
Center for Fire Research, was the primary source for funding human behavior in fire
studies in the United States
1980: National Conference on fire and life safety for the handicapped at Howard
University in Washington D.C.
1985: 1st International Symposium on Fire Safety Engineering
The productive years of the 1970s and 1980s
:
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LITERATURE REVIEW
The Performance Code incentive years from the 1990s into
the 2000s 1993: explosion incident of the WTC. One of the most intensively
studied evacuations
1996/1997: Fahy developed her evacuation model (EXIT 89)
1998: 1th International Symposium on Human Behavior in
fire in Belfast
2001: more studies were started after the twin towers collapsed
2001: Sime introduced an Occupant Response Shelter Escape Time
(ORSET) model
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FIRE RESPONSE PERFORMANCE
Individual’s ability to perceive and interpret signs of danger, and make and carry out
decision aimed at surviving a fire.
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FIRE RESPONSE PERFORMANCE
• Individual features
• Social features
• Situational features
HUMAN
FEATURES
Gender, age, personality traits
Physical and sensory capabilities,
role/responsibility, social affiliation,
commitmentAwareness, position, familiarity
BUILDING
FEATURES
• Situational features
• Engineered features
Occupation density, focal point,
presence of a Building Evacuation
Team (BET)
Complex space, escape route signage,
the design of the escape route
FIRE
FEATURES
• Perceptual features
• Fire growth rate
• Smoke yield and toxicity
(SFPE 5th
edition)
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BEHAVIORAL PROCESS
PHASE 1: Perception of the cue(s)
PHASE 2: Interpretation of the cue,
situation and risk
PHASE 3: Decision-making
PHASE 4: Actions
WAYFINDING Process in which the occupant attempts to find a path that leads
him to relative safety
Individuation of wayfinding
criteria
Development of wayfinding
algorithms used within
evacuation models
Simulation more real
(NIST Technical note 1619)
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Affiliative
behavior
Convergence
cluster
Re-entry
behavior
Assistance
behavior
Occupant firefighting
behavior
The family
members were
more likely to
maintain group
ties during
evacuation
The clusters
involve
occupants
converging in
specific rooms
they perceived
as areas of
refuges
The occupant
chooses to re-
enter the
building. The
reentry
participants
are mostly
male
Able-bodied
occupants
help other
occupant
that are not
as able-
bodied
This response appears
most prevalent in
buildings in which the
individuals are
emotionally or
economically involved or
where they were trained
or assigned to this role
OCCUPANT BEHAVIOR DURING FIRE EMERGENCY
Influence the Ttrav
Disabilities manifest themselves in varying
degrees
The emergency can cause temporary disability
To consider that the occupants with
movement disability often use special devices
Strategies
Evacuation elevators
Refuge areas
DISABLED IN FIRE EMERGENCY
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THE STUDY OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR
Difficult to study
FIRE DRILLS
• An appropriate approach
• Without stress, anxiety, fear and panic
conditions
NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS
• An alternative method to simulate several
scenarios considering the occupants’
characteristics without damaging the
human safety
http://virtual.vtt.fi/
virtual/proj6/fdseva
c/examples_fds6.ht
ml
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MAIN FEATURES OF EGRESS MODELS
MODELS AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC (NIST Technical Note 1680)
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FDSFIRE AND EVACUATION SIMULATION
Evac Fire modelling
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)
model
Geometry modelled with a three
dimensional mesh of volumes control and
their dimension is chosen by the user
Resolves conservation equations (mass,
momentum, energy)
Finite volume method
Evacuation modeling
Multi-agent model
Five body types:
Adult, Male, Female, Child and Elderly
Agent movement algorithm:
method of Helbing’s group = social force
Four agent types:
Conservative, Active, Herding, Follower
each agent is
represented
by three
circles
+
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CASE STUDY
A
Comp. SX Comp. DX
D
Activity n°36 D.P.R 151/2011
• 20𝑚 × 75𝑚• ℎ = 5 ÷ 7• Wood storage
• Area of openings = Af (plan area, fire load)
each compartment
• 3,3m long 1m high
• 20 ribbon windows on the two exterior sides
of the building.
𝐴𝑓 = ൗ1 25𝐴 = 60𝑚2
Fire load• Wooden pallet => H=17,5 MJ/m2
• Europallet 1,2x0,8x0,145m
• Weight = 25 kg
• 15500 for each compartment
𝑞𝑓 =σ𝑖=1𝑛 𝑔𝑖∙𝐻𝑖∙𝑚𝑖∙𝛹𝑖
𝐴= 2893 ൗ𝑀𝐽
𝑚2
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ASSESSMENT OF TIME TO ESCAPE (PD7974-6:2004)
HP:
• Occupants: familiar and awake
• ta= 150s
• Activity not strategic
• 5 occupants
Rvita= A3 (according to D.M. 3/08/2015)
Rbeni= 1 (according to D.M. 3/08/2015)
One compartment
Alarm level A1
Building level B1
Management level M1
L= 57,5m
Les= 45m
N° EXIT (min) 1
W= 120 cm
20 m
To verify that the length L of exodus path is not greater
than the maximum length Les
37,5
m
The adoption of additional measures can increase the
maximum value of the path length.
𝐿𝑒𝑠,𝑑 = 1 + 𝛿𝑚 ∙ 𝐿𝑒𝑠 𝛿𝑚 =
𝑖
𝛿𝑚,𝑖
Les,d = 67,5 m
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ASSESSMENT OF TIME TO ESCAPE (PD7974-6:2004)
CASE tdet
(sec)
tal
(sec)
tpre-mov
(sec)
tperc
(sec)
RSET
(s)
RSET
(min)
1 150,01 0 60 47,92 257,93 4,29
∆𝑡𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑐= ∆𝑡 )𝑝𝑟𝑒(99𝑡ℎ 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑒 + ∆𝑡 )𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣(𝑤𝑎𝑙𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔
tdet : the moment in which the fire reaches 1 MW and it produces smoke and flames
such as to be perceived by the occupants
tal : the level A1 was assigned to the alarm system, so the delay is equal to 0
tpre-mov : depends on behavioral scenarios that are function of the management level
(M1, M2, M3), the building level (B1, B2, B3) and the alarm level (A1,A2,A3)
ttrav: calculated according to walking speed equal to 1,2 m/s
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Source: PD 7974-6:2004 The application of fire safety engineering priciples to fire safety design of buildings. Human factors. Life safety strategies. Occupant evacuation, behaviour and condition (Sub-system 6)
FDS+Evac MODEL: RSET
DET_EVAC_DIST=0,DET_MEAN=150.01,
PRE_EVAC_DIST=1,PRE_LOW=5.0,PRE_HIGH=60.0
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RESULTS
Evacuation starts after 190,01s
The last occupant leaves the
compartment after 228s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00 300,00
n°
occ
up
an
ts
t(s)
Egress
The fire is still in the development phase
HRR(t= 228s) = 3,24 MW
0,00
500,00
1000,00
1500,00
2000,00
2500,00
3000,00
3500,00
0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00 300,00
HR
R (
kW
)
t(s)
HRR
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COMPARISON BETWEEN ASET AND RSET
Advanced Method According to D.M 3/08/2015, point M.3.3.1
• Toxic gas model FED (Fractional Effective Dose) concept: calculated by
default using the gas phase concentrations of O2, CO2 and
COValue far below the incapacity
and death (FED = 1)FED MAX = 7,93 ∙ 10-9
• Irritant gas model Not considered
• Smoke obscuration model Relation visibility – smoke density
The visibility conditions at the human
height do not change from the start
of the evacuation to the end (30 m)
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COMPARISON BETWEEN ASET AND RSET
Advanced Method
• Heat model Simplified method: Radiation on occupants ≤ 2.5 kW/m2
Temperature ≤ 60 °C
ASET = 30 minutes
z=1,6 m
Tmax = 22,5 ° C
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COMPARISON BETWEEN ASET AND RSET
Advanced Method
y=15 m
The high temperatures are
reached next to the ceiling.
At the moment in which the
occupant passes near the
ignition point, the temperature
is not dangerous to human
safety.
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COMPARISON BETWEEN ASET AND RSET
Simplified Method
The ISO/TR 16738 allows using the hypothesis of “exposure zero”. This method
adopt the following performance thresholds:
The height clear of smoke is 2 m
The mean temperature of the layer of hot smoke is not higher than 200 °C
ASET >> RSET
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CONCLUSIONS
Fire is a complex situation, whose consequences depend strongly on
the occupants’ characteristics.
Understanding how the humans respond to an emergency, and how
the agent-agent, agent-environment and agent-fire interaction
manifests, can increase the probability that fire simulation is very
similar to reality.
A complete theory of human behavior can be used in performance-
based regulatory systems, computational models, fire safety
engineering design, fire safety education and management.
The simulation with FDS+Evac, object of this study, has the RSET
results similar to those obtained according to the PD7974-6:2004.
The availability of a greater number of actual input data and the
capabilities of fire modelling to simulate the environmental conditions
will make in the future the evacuation modelling even closer to reality.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
14/09/2016Il comportamento umano da comparsa a protagonista:
modellazione dell’evacuazione di un capannone industriale
Monica Capobelli, PE
Chiara Crosti, PhD, PE
Konstantinos Gkoumas, PhD, PE