Presented byMagnus Ebo Duncan

On 30th April 2008

Revised GDP Estimates for 2008

Statistical Newsletter, No. B12-2003Ghana Statistical Service

Outline of the presentation

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GDP and its importanceTypes of GDP estimation Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the

Production ApproachSchedule of updatesRevised estimates for 2008

What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?

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The total value of the final goods and services produced in the country during a given period, usually one year

Importance of GDP

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To measure the performance of the economy in a given time period

To compare the level of performance from year to year

To assess the performance of the various sectors of the economy

Measurement Approaches

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Production Approach

Expenditure Approach

Income Approach

Domestic private savings

Generation and Use of National Income

Rest of world

Firms Households

ProductMarkets

FactorMarkets

Government Save/Invest

Factorcost

Salesrevenues

Wages& rents

Privatecons.

Gov’texp.

Invest.exp.

Transfers

Import payments

Export receipts Foreign savings

Taxes Gov’t savings

Domestic demand for final goods

Intermediatedemand

Compilation & estimation of GDP by the Production

approach

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AGRICULTURE   Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and

Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing

INDUSTRY Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and Water Construction

SERVICES   Transport, Storage and Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services Government Services   Community, Social and Personal Services Producers of Private Non- profit Services

1. AGRICULTURE  

Crops and Livestock

Cocoa Production and Marketing

Forestry and Logging

Fishing  

2. INDUSTRY

2.1 Mining and Quarrying

2.2 Manufacturing

2.3 Electricity and Water

2.4 Construction  

3. SERVICES  

3.1 Transport, Storage and Communication

3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels

3.3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services

3.4 Government Services  

3.5 Community, Social and Personal Services

3.6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services

Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation

Sources of Data

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administrative records (Public and Private Enterprises, MDAs)

Surveys (Households and Specific)

Censuses

Sources of Data – Agricultural Sector

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1. Data on crop production - Statistics, Research and Information Division (SRID) of MOFA

2. Data on livestock production - Animal Health & Production Department

3. Cocoa production & marketing - COCOBOD

4. Data on forestry & logging - Forestry Commission

5. Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department

Sources of Data – Industrial Sector

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Mining & Quarrying1. Mines Department and Minerals Commission2. Precious Minerals Marketing Company

Electricity and Water1. Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd2. Volta River Authority3. Ghana Water Company Ltd

Sources of Data – Industrial Sector (Cont.)

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Manufacturing – a combination of 1. Information from the Ghana Living Standard

Survey2. VAT data3. Financial Statements of Selected

Establishments

Construction1. Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement2. Imports 3. VAT data

Sources of Data – Services Sector

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Wholesale & Retail Trade, Hotels & Restaurants1. Commodity flow 2. VAT data3. Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS)

Transport and Communication1. Major transport companies2. DVLA3. Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom,

Kasapa

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)

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Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services

1. Banks2. Insurance Companies3. VAT

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)

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Government Services1. Ministry of Finance and Economic

Planning2. Ministry of Local Government 3. Bank of Ghana4. Controller and Accountant General’s

Department

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)

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Community, Social & Personal Service Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS) VAT data

Producers of Private Non-Profit Services (NPISH)

Religious Organizations Civil Society Organizations TUC

Valuation of GDP

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GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP)

GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP)

GDP at Current Prices

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GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of the given year

This is also referred to as the nominal GDP

GDP at Constant Prices

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The GDP at current prices deflated to a given base year prices Using the appropriate price indices (e.g. CPI,

PPI, Exchange Rate Index, Minimum Wage Index etc.)

Currently, the base year for the constant estimates of Ghana’s GDP is 1993

-Projected -provisional-Revised-final

TYPES OF ESTIMATES

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Projected Estimates

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They are made for future periods where economic activities have not taken place or no data on activities are available

The estimates are made based on• government policies and decisions• Trend analysis and other economic models• assumptions (eg. weather)

Provisional Estimates

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Any changes made to the projected estimates, using data which cover about half of the year under consideration

Provisional estimates are normally ready by September

Revised Estimates

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Revision of the provisional figures is based on full year data for most of the sub-sectors.

The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the subsequent year (for e.g. Revised GDP estimates of 2007 were generated in April 2008)

Final Estimates

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The estimates are designated final when data for all the subsectors for the year under consideration are used to make adjustments in the revised estimates.

REVISED ESTIMATES FOR 2008

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Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector -2008

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Activity Projected Provisional

Intermediate Revision for Budget

Revised

Crops and Livestock

5.5 5.5 5.5 5.8

Cocoa 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Forestry and Logging

3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5

Fishing 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Total Agriculture

5.0 4.9 4.9 5.14

Real Growth in the Industry Sector - 2008

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Activity Projected Provisional

Intermediate Revision for Budget

Revised

Mining and Quarrying

8.0 14.0 2.0 2.1

Manufacturing

4.0 4.0 4.3 4.5

Production and Distribution of Electricity and Water

22.0

12.0

16.3

19.4

Construction 13.0 12.0 14.0 14.0Total Industry

9.7 10 8.3 8.1

Real Growth in the Services Sector - 2008

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Activity Projected Provisional Intermediate Revision for Budget 2009

Revised

Transport, Storage and Communication

10.0 8.0 10.0 8.9

Wholesale, Retail Trade, Hotels and Restaurants

10.0 7.0 7.0 10.2

Finance, Insurance, Real Estates and Business Services

13.0 13.0 13.0 9.6

Government Services 2.7 2.7 2.7 9.7Community , Social and Personal Services

6.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

Producers of Private Non-profit Services

6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Total Services 7.3 6.4 6.9 9.3

Revised GDP estimates - 2008

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Indicator

Projected

Provisional

Intermediate Revision for Budget

Revised

GDP at factor cost

7.1 6.9 6.5 7.4

Net Indirect Taxes

6.0 4.6 4.6 6.2

GDP at Purchasers’ Value

7.0 6.7 6.2 7.3

Final GDP Estimates for 2007(Millions of GH Cedis)

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Economic Activity

Real GDP Nominal GDP

Agriculture 254.0 4,761.6

Industry 190.4 3,552.9

Service 231.5 4,503.8

GDP (in purchasers’ value)

741.2 14,045.8

Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 (Millions of GH Cedis)

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Economic Activity

Real GDP Nominal GDP

Agriculture 267.1 5,901.1

Industry 205.8 4,442.0

Service 252.9 5,740.5

GDP (in purchasers’ value)

795.1 17,617.6

Major Indicators

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INDICATORS ESTIMATE

S

Nominal GDP (in Million GH₵) 17,617.6

Real GDP (in Mill GH₵) 795.1

Real GDP growth rate (%) 7.3

GDP per Capita ( in GH₵) 753.5

GDP per Capita (in US$) 712.3

WAY FORWORD

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Planned Activities

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Rebasing of the national accounts- Changing the base year from 1993 to a more recent year

- Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach

- Compilation of more national accounts aggregates

Quarterly National Accounts

Quarterly Economic Bulletin

AcknowledgementThe Government Statistician wishes to extend her sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who in diverse ways, provide inputs for the compilation of the national accounts.

THANK YOU36

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