Plan C – Community Solutions
forHousing, Transportation
and Food
2009 Viva Verde Expo Silver City, New Mexico
June 27, 2009Presented byPat Murphy – Executive Director
Community Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387
Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions
Founded in 1940 to support Small Local Communities
Represents today’s trend to re-localization/localization
Small communities under assault since end of World War II Made possible by cheap energy
In 2004 began focus on Climate Change and Peak Oil The factors that will lead to small community resurgence
Humans develop optimally in a place over generations Our Home Town
New Watchword Needed!1987 – Sustainability, 2009 – Survivability Three Interrelated Threats to Humanity
Increasing CO2 (From burning fossil fuels) Threatens life on earth
Shrinking amounts of Fossil Fuels – “Peak Energy” Implies a declining standard of living
Record Inequity – from cheap fuels and cheap credit More violence, suffering and alienation Related to current economic crisis
World Threatened with Climate Crisis
CO2 – 387 ppm; Increasing 2.1 ppm annually James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!
World Facing Energy Decline
Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) says occurred in 2008 IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 – Acknowledged Peak Oil
World Inequity Highest in History
Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974 U.S. Military predicting perpetual resource wars Contraction and Convergence – Europe and NGOs
Modern Technology – Problem or Solution?
10,000 years of Agrarian living ~250 years of technology living 65 years hyper-technology living
Modern world is an “energy” world
Technology is limited Fuel cell car a 30 years effort Electric cars 90 years old Fusion 40 years late Ethanol has not succeeded
Energy sources have major limitations Fossil Fuels and Uranium
Oil and Gas Not enough resourcesCoal–Tar Sands–Oil Shale Not enough atmosphereNuclear fission Not enough resourcesNuclear fusion Too difficult
RenewablesBiomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soilHydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Needs energy to be producedPhotovoltaic & Wind Power Proven – But will they scale?
Why are there so few options? Are we at a point of diminishing returns? Has anything been added since crisis of 1970s?
Energy devices have major limitations Fuel Cell cars a 30 year debacle
$17 billion spent – few cars
EV a less expensive debacle Few billion $ spent – 4,000 made
PHEV next techno fix – but just a coal car (no better than hybrid) And how much lithium exists?
Green Building not very green – Energy Star and LEED 15 – 30% savings at best: need 80 – 90%
Power plants have changed little – a few IGCC generators But only a handful built in last 20 years
Three Technology (Societal) Options Plan A – Black (fossil fuel technology)
More oil, gas, tar sands Proponents are oil, gas, coal, agribusiness, car companies Maintain current life style – 90% of population
Plan B – Green (solar, wind, switch grass) technology Focused primarily on intermittent electricity generation Proponents are Al Gore, Lester Brown, Environmental NGOs Maintain current life style – 9% of population
Plan C – High Satisfaction Low Energy Life Style Focused on curtailing fossil fuel usage Reduce current life style – .9% of population
Plan C – Curtail Consumption First Community Survival Strategies
We must cut energy use – fast !
Cuts must be deep IPCC: 80–90% by 2050; 4–5% yearly
Take responsibility Can’t wait for techno-fixes
Our focus: Cut energy under personal control House, Food, Cars – 2/3 US energy
Plan C – High Satisfaction, Less Energy
A “Community” Context A “sufficiency” life style Cooperating vs. Competing Sharing vs. Hoarding Saving vs. Consuming
Context where curtailment is not suffering Happiness in relating, not accumulating Live simply that others may simply live
Community is a cooperation principle Capitalism/Competition destroying life Need high satisfaction cooperative
living
Justifying Plan C “Technology/Science driven”
Technology of depletion – proven by Hubbert Climate Science – Universally accepted now Psychology/Sociology – “Bowling Alone” Ecological Economics
Research in Plan C Intermediate Technology Buildings Transportation Food
“If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!” – Per Capita Thinking Need to understand energy accounting
EROEI, LCA, Embodied energy vs. operating energy
Understanding aided by per capita comparisons Country comparisons are always misleading Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous
There are three key “macro” considerations CO2 Generation (tonnes per capita per year) Energy Consumption (BOE per capita per year) Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)
CO2 – 90% Reduction required for Survival Per Capita Comparison
33 most populous nations 80% of world population
Survival (sustainable) level 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita 4 tonne CO2 world average today 19 tonne CO2 U.S. average today
U.S. greatest CO2 contributor 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2 Need a 90% cut
World Organization by Energy
Rich world is most of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development)
OECD–L = OECD minus US, Turkey, Mexico (moved to ROW) U.S. is a separate category
US Energy Consumption Breakdown
Population: U.S. – 300M, OECD–L – 700M, ROW – 5,700M
U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home) Each sector uses more than total energy of ROW
Setting 80 – 90% Reduction Targets Housing (15.4 BOE/c)
Deep Building Retrofits – German Passive House as model ACI’s 1,000 Home Challenge
Cars (13.5 BOE/c) Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit Metrolite from India
Food (10 BOE/c) Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products Change your diet Eat locally grown non industrial food
#1 Target – US Homes – Size Matters Most
Per capita square foot 1950 – 260 2008 – 800
New US home size
1950 – 1,000 sq. ft. 2007 – 2,300 sq. ft
US residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan
A cultural issue
U.S. Energy Use in Buildings
50% of US energy is used in buildings 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy
US has about 130 million residences (80 million buildings) New building – about 1.0 million units yearly
“Green Building” – too little, too late LEED, Energy Star ineffective
Programs reduce energy use by 15% – 30% (need 80% – 90%) “Green buildings” are less than 5% of new construction
Would take about 75 years to turn over the building stock
Home Energy Reductions Easier
Lighting – CFLs reduce energy use by factor of three Plug leaks: 15 – 30% of heat loss – low cost Insulate attic – inexpensive Window coverings – inexpensive and fast
Harder and costly – but with very large payoff Replace windows Modify (thicken) the building envelope Move ductwork into the conditioned space
The Core – A Thick Building Envelope
The German Passive House
Passive Houses use 90% less heating and cooling energy They have no external heat source or air conditioning
13th Annual Passive House Conference Held two months ago in Frankfurt
1,200 attendees from around the world 100 presenters
Tours of homes/schools
About 20,000 passive houses/buildings to date
18 years since first build – a maturing technology Windows, heat exchangers, insulation, sealants
Achieving the 90% reduction
Challenge – Retrofit Existing Buildings
1,000 sq. foot. Carriage House Thicken walls, roof, floors First floor 4” rigid, 7 ½“ fiberglass Double wall added – 12’ total Roof rafters – from 2x4 to 2x12
Installed a heat exchanger
Replaced windows
A model for retrofitting
Retrofit Building Energy Savings and $$ Wide range of estimates to redo all homes
130 million residence @ $40,000 is $5 trillion. Impossible? Maybe – only 7 years of US real military budget Or a year or two of bailing out banks !
Far cheaper than paying fuel bills – e.g. 2008 to 2050 (42 yr) Save 10 boe yearly– estimate $300 boe eqv. in 2012+ $3,000 yearly for 40 years = $120,000
Culture likely to adopt 1950s values – homeowners do work!
Any serious sustainability group must have a retrofitting plan!
#2 Target – The Private Car U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups
U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime
75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly
U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg
Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades Hybrids less than 1% of cars after 10 years This is a little known “scale” issue
U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone
Passengers per trip U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008
New Mass Transit Success Questionable
Mass transit typically just supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit
Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329 Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959 Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569 Vanpool – 1,294
How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?
Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox)
Efficiency isn’t the answer From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars? 3 times the efficiency – 5 times the number of cars 1–2% yearly tech improvements and population increase 2–4% yearly oil depletion rate
What About a Jitney?
A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule
An unlicensed taxicab
Essence of the Jitney Snared transit with cars Not mass transit with buses
Common in 85% of world
The “Smart” Jitney Proposal Every existing car can be jitney
“Shared transit “ – not mass transit
Made possible by new communications/GPS technology A software problem – not hardware; All components exist!
Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules
“Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75–80%
Status – Operational ! ! ! Avego of Ireland is first out of the box Should expect announcements soon in MA and CA First US conference held in April at MIT
#3 Target – Food May be the hardest change – behavior changes
But the easiest physically – no new technology
Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars
Suffering of food animals is horrific
Garden and buy locally grown food CS has its own garden – supports CSA’s
John Michael Greer – Organic garden is contemporary!!
Local Work in Yellow Springs Council formed Electrical System Task Force in 2007
Resulted in cancelling a new $3 million substation At same time, withdrew from AMP-Ohio coal plant
Council just formed Energy Task Force for long range planning
New home energy audit company
CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership Will review town’s energy use Different than token sign ups for Architecture 2030 or Kyoto
Must measure usage and design solutions – not easy
Time is Running Out Peak Oil may have already occurred – July 2008
IEA November 2008 report – acknowledges depletion
Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate” Artic ice melt is accelerating
Survivability needs 80-90% reduction of energy use (4-5% yearly) “Incrementalism is death”.. Stephen Tanner (BioHaus)
No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV
Must change habits and way of life – become different people Using intermediate proven technologies
Financial Crisis Creates Opportunity Financial corporations have defrauded–swindled–cheated us
Will mean cutbacks in energy exploration and R & D This will end our love affair with corporate America
Important to consider inequity in post great depression period Up to 1929: Very high inequity 1930s – 1980s: focus on increasing equity 1980 – 2008: Inequity buildup as in pre 1929 period
Curtailment will be unavoidable – and that is not all bad In the depression community flourished ! !
Expect a Community Resurgence Today is like pre-depression period (roaring 20s)
Things were declining before October 1929 – like now
The financial crisis is a crisis of character The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes Consumer debt triggered both depressions
Free Market has become a license to steal
Community provides the alternative value system Cooperation, not competition Values of “caring and sharing”
Summary CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community
No techno–fix will maintain current way-of-life
CS projects are directed at personal 2/3 of energy consumption Houses, Cars, Food Working with Low E building organizations – Affordable
Comfort, Inc., Passive House Institute – US Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) & India Working with farmers for local food production
Our view – A return to high satisfaction low-e communities World sacrificed community for consumerism Horrible mistake – community will be reborn Strong community means less materialism (energy)
Einstein’s Reminder “W e can't solve problems by using
the same kind of thinking we used when
we created them”
All our thinking (and values) since WWII has been to consume more
Our current Way of Living (values) is threatening life on earth
Time for new thinking & new values How about Community? And High Satisfaction Low–e Living
