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Presented by: Paul Ferguson, Cizmic Consulting Atlantis, Paradise Island, July
2008
2Emerging Trends & Technologies
Topics
1. Industry Trends Industry in Transformation - shift New converged telecom and “infotainment”
industry Increasing complexity – all connected It is all about the customer …
2. Emerging Technologies & Implications IPTV and “triple play” Fiber-To-The-x VoIP The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE Mobile TV Fixed Mobile Convergence
3. Is there a new role of the Government ? Regulatory e-Government and e-Society
Industry Trends
Cizmic Consulting - BTC Strategic Considerations
1
4Emerging Trends & Technologies
Industry Transformation
Early 90’s
Connectivity
•Mobile 1G•Ethernet• IP starting• Internet takes a hold
Late 90’s
Scale
•Mobile 2G•Large network build-outs• Internet bubble•VoIP
Early 2000’s
Post-Bubble
•Mobile 2.5G•Broadband ubiquity•Triple/Quad Play•Social networks
Late 2000’s
Empowerment
•Mobile 3/4G•Smart devices•Content anytime, anywhere•Convergence
5Emerging Trends & Technologies
Stand-AloneServices
Connectivity
Old telecomindustries
New converged telecom and “infotainment”industry
Integrated &
Converged
Bundles
Connectivity+ Content
Industry transformation well under way Industry transformation well under way
Industry Transformation
6Emerging Trends & Technologies
ContentContent
Service provider type and service
definitions determine
d by technology
Service provider type and service
definitions determine
d by technology
SubscriberSubscriber
ContentContent
Subscriber and content
moving closer together applies
pressure to conventional
model
Subscriber and content
moving closer together applies
pressure to conventional
model
SubscriberSubscriber
Industry Ecosystem Ecosystem Shift
Industry Shift
7Emerging Trends & Technologies
From Kilobits….Megabits……Gigabits
Yesterday Today
e.g. 28Kbps – dial up
e.g.5Mbps – ADSL (always on)
8Emerging Trends & Technologies
Photo
Music – Download
Podcast – News
TV Show – 40 min
Movie – Apple TV
SIZE
4 MB 21s
4 MB 21s
114 MB
10m 8s 9.1s
200 MB
17m 46s
1.5 GB 2h 13m 20m
2.5 GB 3h 42m
33m 20s
3m 20s
2m
2m 40s 16s
3.2s
3.2s .3s
1m 31 s
.9s
1.6s
12s
20s
.3s .03s
.03s
xDSL, 3G & WiMAX
<--Fibre-To-The-Home--> (FTTH)
Next Gen
0.5Mbps
63s
63s
30m 24s
53m 30s
6h 39m
11h 10m
Dial Up & 2G
1st Gen
Movie – Best Quality
1.5 Mbps
10 Mbps
100 Mbps 1 Gbps
Speed matters
9Emerging Trends & Technologies
TIME
Tens of Kbps Mid 90s
Hundreds of Kbps
Ones of Mbps
Tens of Mbps
Hundreds of Mbps
Mid 00s
Narrowband9.6 to 56 Kbps
1st Gen Broadband200 Kbps to 5 Mbps
Competitive Broadband10 to 15 Mbps
Advanced Broadband20 to 30 Mbps
Ultimate Broadband30 Mbps and up
BA
ND
WID
TH
Bandwidth Requirements: New Discontinuities
Speeds offered world-wide now heading into 10’s Mbps(requirement for IPTV)
Speeds offered world-wide now heading into 10’s Mbps(requirement for IPTV)
10Emerging Trends & Technologies
Basic Service Impersonal Single Service Best Effort Low Speeds Fixed Only Single Device Nice to Have Service
“OLD” VERSUS “NEW” BROADBAND
Full Service Personalized Multiple/Blended Services Guaranteed Performance Very High Speeds Fixed and Mobile Multiple Devices Must Have Service
“OLD” BROADBAND “NEW” BROADBAND
Changing Role of Broadband
Broadband has evolved to be a necessity Broadband has evolved to be a necessity
11Emerging Trends & Technologies
There is a recognition that more customers are seeking solutions that will allow them to move and share information seamlessly between their communication devices.
They want more control over how they experience content and they also want a compelling experience across their three primary “screens” - their television, personal computer, and mobile device, commonly referred to as “the 3 Screens of life”.
“Three Screens of Life”
12Emerging Trends & Technologies
Consumer expectation is changing … what is at stake
LOW
HIGH
Average Monthly Triple/Quad Play “connectivity” costs is approximately $120
“Triple/Quadruple Play” … a holy grail for carriers Customers expect one bill for multiple
services, with deep discounts for loyalty Currently multiple individual solutions of
voice, video, and data Triple Play struggling to gain acceptance
because the price is approximately 2 – 5x more what people at the bottom of the socio economic pyramid can afford
13Emerging Trends & Technologies
ControlConvenienceCustomizationMobilityProductivitySatisfactionSavingsUsage
=
Subscribers
Customer LoyaltyCompetitive Advantage i.e. Market Differentiation
Profit Margins
Revenue
Subscription
Churn+
Speed, convergence and bundling of services leads to:
ControlConvenienceCustomizationMobilityProductivitySatisfactionSavingsUsage
=
Subscribers
Customer LoyaltyCompetitive Advantage i.e. Market Differentiation
Profit Margins
Revenue
Subscription
Churn+
ControlConvenienceCustomizationMobilityProductivitySatisfactionSavingsUsage
=
Subscribers
Customer Loyalty
Competitive Advantage
i.e. Market Differentiation
Profit Margins
Revenue
Subscription
Churn
Operational Costs
+
… for Subscribers & Service Providers
Service Providers
Emerging Technologies
Cizmic Consulting - BTC Strategic Considerations
2
15Emerging Trends & Technologies
IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) - the delivery of both broadcast and/or on-demand TV and video over an IP network (Ovum 2007).
How big will the IPTV market be? Estimates show that IPTV subscribers will balloon from 3.7 million in 2005 to over 40 million by 2010 (worldwide), with Europe leading the market. The industry's revenues could reach nearly US$12 billion by that time.
For residential users, IPTV is often provided in conjunction with Video on Demand and may be commercially bundled with Internet services such as Web access and VoIP for a "Triple Play" (adding mobility for a "Quadruple Play").
IPTV… The key to service provider Triple Play
Still, the battle is for more than just the television; it's a struggle for the single entry
point into the home.
Still, the battle is for more than just the television; it's a struggle for the single entry
point into the home.
Example: AT&T is preparing to take on the big cable operators in major U.S. markets with its IPTV architecture, using fiber to the node (FTTN) technology, delivering at least 24 Mbps using ADSL 2+ and/or VDSL.
16Emerging Trends & Technologies
Building Blocks21st Century House
Homes Connect
edUS$700 – 1,300
US$500 – 1,600
Homes Passed
Computer
HDTV
SecurityMonitor
BroadbandModem
WLAN
Careful evaluation of fiber based business case required Careful evaluation of fiber based business case required
VoIP
Cost vary depending on several factors:Network TopologyBuilding DensityAerial vs Buried FiberConstruction/Labour Cost
17Emerging Trends & Technologies
VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
What is VoIP?VoIP or Voice over Internet Protocol, also known as Internet voice, allows consumers to make voice calls over their broadband connection using a regular phone with an adaptor, an IP phone, or a PC
IP technology allows services such as voice and video to be treated exactly like data, namely as applications, that can be transmitted quickly and simultaneously over IP networks at significantly lower costs than those of the PSTN.
Internet
PersonalComputer
PersonalComputer
Modem
Phone Adapter
Telephone
Telephone
18Emerging Trends & Technologies
VoIP … the Industry Hype
No telecom technology in recent history has been more disruptive to the telecom industry than VoIP. ..In 2004 it was VoIP over DSL with Vonage leading the way… in 2005 it was free voice from Skype, in 2006 was cable VoIP.
VoIP consumer users currently stand at about 4 to 5% of US and European households.
Business customers show strong demand for VoIP services, but it is not clear that all operators are ready to meet their requirements.
Although many consumers have heard of VoIP few are interested. Operators plan to capitalize on consumers’ desire to save money in the short term.
In the future, successful operators will use VoIP networks to deliver mass service customization and accelerate service development.
Operators, vendors, and the media are
hyping VoIP
19Emerging Trends & Technologies
The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE (long-term evolution)
– WiMAX - Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), as defined by the WiMAX Forum, is "a standards-based technology enabling the delivery of last mile wireless broadband access as an alternative to cable and DSL." In other words, WiMAX technology enables the transport and delivery of wireless data from point-to-point links, to full mobile cellular type access, in several formats, and across long distances.
– WiMAX has a time to market advantage over LTE -- the standards are ratified and equipment is certified, a good two years ahead of LTE. Although, the reality is that (a) consumers will not have access to this technology via access points, laptops, dual mode cell phones, etc. for some time; (b) wireless access via 802.11b/g is more than sufficient for most users both in-home networking, internet access and even VoIP calls
– Speed: tens of Mbps– Availability: 802.16 d/e now; – Frequency: various, most common 2.3 GHz to 3.5 GHz– Main Supporters: multiple vendors/operators(Sprint)
20Emerging Trends & Technologies
The Road to 4G: WiMAX versus LTE
– LTE has the advantage being supported by a significantly larger mobile operator base allowing them to leverage some parts of their embedded infrastructure. LTE like WiMax, is a flat IP architecture and OFDM based (orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing), which have higher efficiency. It is planned to be deployed in lower-frequency bands (from 700 MHz to 2.6 GHz) which minimizes the number of base stations required for coverage and incrementally reduces capital and operational expenditure.
– Speed: tens of Mbps (similar to WiMAX in terms of data rate)– Availability: general consensus - commercial deployment in 2010, but
it likely will not gain significant traction until the 2013; mass adoption will occur around 2015
– Frequency: from 700 MHz to 2.6 GHz (incl. cellular and PCS bands, to be co-located with legacy networks)
– Main Supporters: multiple vendors and operators (i.e. China Mobile, Vodafone, Orange, T-Mobile International, KPN Mobile, and NTT DoCoMo)
WiMAX → Niche Underserved MarketsLTE → Cellular Evolution
WiMAX → Niche Underserved MarketsLTE → Cellular Evolution
21Emerging Trends & Technologies
Mobile TV - Broadcast TV on a mobile device
Around the world wireless carriers have been building their high-speed wireless network infrastructure, creating the scene for critical-mass mobile TV.
The real issue is not whether mobile TV will be disruptive, but which business model will win. The business models could take the shape of a cable model (different content packages with providers getting a percentage based on subscribers), an a la carte model (pick your own mobile TV channels), or an advertisement-based model (i.e. ESPN assembling all those sports fans for advertisers).
Mobile TV - Broadcast TV on a mobile device
Around the world wireless carriers have been building their high-speed wireless network infrastructure, creating the scene for critical-mass mobile TV.
The real issue is not whether mobile TV will be disruptive, but which business model will win. The business models could take the shape of a cable model (different content packages with providers getting a percentage based on subscribers), an a la carte model (pick your own mobile TV channels), or an advertisement-based model (i.e. ESPN assembling all those sports fans for advertisers).
Mobile TV
Hardly any wireless service provider has a revenue management or assurance program in place for mobile
TV revenue distribution
Hardly any wireless service provider has a revenue management or assurance program in place for mobile
TV revenue distribution
22Emerging Trends & Technologies
A killer app that's got all service providers' attention is fixed-mobile convergence (FMC). A particularly attractive spin is an integrated Wi-Fi/mobile wireless phone, using mobile wireless on cellular infrastructure when you are out and about, and Wi-Fi for free when you are in your home or office.
Here's the basic problem with this stellar vision: what's in it for mobile wireless providers? They get 30 percent of their revenue from users who are in reach of an office phone or are at home, often without wireline service to begin with. Besides, are mobile wireless providers going to end up subsidizing the dual-mode Wi-Fi cellular phone, only to see revenue shrink? Yes in some selected environments, and no otherwise.
A killer app that's got all service providers' attention is fixed-mobile convergence (FMC). A particularly attractive spin is an integrated Wi-Fi/mobile wireless phone, using mobile wireless on cellular infrastructure when you are out and about, and Wi-Fi for free when you are in your home or office.
Here's the basic problem with this stellar vision: what's in it for mobile wireless providers? They get 30 percent of their revenue from users who are in reach of an office phone or are at home, often without wireline service to begin with. Besides, are mobile wireless providers going to end up subsidizing the dual-mode Wi-Fi cellular phone, only to see revenue shrink? Yes in some selected environments, and no otherwise.
Fixed-Mobile Convergence
Is there a new role of the Government ?
What are the options? Stay out of the way Regulate the telecom to ensure competitive parity Eliminate the digital divide. Similar to roads…
should Governments provide free basic communications infrastructure ?
Use technology to become more efficient e.g eGovt initiatives
Cizmic Consulting - BTC Strategic Considerations
3
24Emerging Trends & Technologies
e-Government and e-Society
The establishment of an e-government infrastructure is a proven catalyst to help create a business-friendly environment by streamlining the interaction and improving the interface between government and business. By cutting out redundancies in procedures and emphasizing immediate and efficient delivery of services, e-government creates the conditions that attract investors/ investment. Willingness of Government to consistently push e-Gov and e-Society agenda for increased efficiency, increased communications between the agencies and the citizen or a business, conducting transactions, governance, etc. requires a ubiquitous broadband, government backbone, new applications, human capital, among other.
e-Government and e-Society Attractive for Businesses
25Emerging Trends & Technologies
e-Government and e-Society Examples from around the world
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Canada
Singapore
DubaiSwitzerland
Trinidad & Tobago
United States
26Emerging Trends & Technologies
e-Vision Segments Pipe Size (Speed)
Services Technology
E-Learning All learning centres, schools & libraries
1mbps–10mbps On-line Education, Virtual Classroom, Virtual lecture & share point
ADSL 2+, Ev-DO, WiFi, Wimax
E-Commerce SME & Large Enterprises
5mbps-100mbps
Business to Business, e-Supply chain & Online store
ADSL2+,Fibre+ Wimax
E-Culture All citizens 10mbps–1Gbps IPTV,HDTV & Video on demand
ADSL2+, Fibre
E-security Major cities, high traffic areas & gov’t institutions
10mbps–100mbps
Full Motion Video, Face Recognition, City Surveillance etc
Wimax, Fibre
E-Government Gov’t institutions
10mbps–1Gbps Video Conferences, Virtual Data bases etc
Wimax, Fibre
E-Health All major hospitals
100mbps-1Gbps
3D Imaging, Fle Sharing & Virtual Diagnostics
Fibre
e-Government and e-SocietyHow to deliver an e-Vision
27Emerging Trends & Technologies
Emerging technologies pose both a threat and opportunity to existing operators and vendors
The key to successfully deploying emerging technologies is the development of an investor grade business plan that addresses the need of the customers
Conclusion
28Emerging Trends & Technologies
Fiber-To-The-x
FTTN – Fiber to the Node
FTTC – Fiber to the Curb
FTTB – Fiber to the Building
FTTH – Fiber to the Home
DLC
DLC
Need to match access to the target segment(s) Need to match access to the target segment(s)