Previous research and this
How does the context the brand operates in influence strategy?
500 digital era for-profit cases120 not-for-profit cases
Two ways marketing worksShort-term sales activation Long-term brand building
Sale
s upl
ift o
ver b
ase
TimeSource: Binet & Field 2013
Two ways marketing works
Sales activationShort term sales uplifts
Brand buildingLong term sales growth
Short term effects dominate ~6 months
Why do we still need brand building advertising?
You need brand and activation
0.8
1.5
2.0
2.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Low Brand, LowActivation
Low Brand, HighActivation
High Brand, LowActivation
High Brand, HighActivation
Num
ber o
f ver
y la
rge
busi
ness
fx
Balance of brand and activation effectsSource: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases, based on scale of activation effects and number of brand effects
Brand building boosts short-term effects
17%
36%
42%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0 1 ≥2
% R
epor
ting
very
larg
e ac
tivat
ion
fx.
Number of very large brand effects reportedSource: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
The power of brand building: Direct Line insurance
Direct Line growth
Source: Direct Line IPA case study 2016
Why TV?
“We could find compelling evidence for both the long-term and short-term effectiveness of media lines such as TV and radio. By contrast, our research did not support continued investment in a number of programmatic digital media lines even on a short-term basis.”
Direct Line 2018 IPA case study
The principles of balance
Brand-Activation balance matters
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Peak at 62% brand
20% loss of effectivenessBrand remains strong
56% loss of effectivenessBrand weakens
When activation is easy, up-weight brand
61 69
39 31
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low consideration High consideration
Opt
imum
Bra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n sp
lit
Nature of purchase decision
Activation
Brand
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
When brand building is easy, up-weight activation
7655
2445
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low High
Opt
imum
Bra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n sp
lit
Role of emotions in purchase decision
Activation
Brand
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Flexing the rules by context
Online research makes activation easier
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
27%
32%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Low research High research
V La
rge
Activ
atio
n fx
55
74
45
26
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low research High research
Brra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n op
timum
Brand Activation
Online selling makes activation easier
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
30%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Offline brand Online brand
V La
rge
Activ
atio
n fx
.
55
74
45
26
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Offline brand Online brand
Brra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n op
timum
Brand Activation
What about Big Tech?
£130,000,000
£140,000,000
£150,000,000
£160,000,000
£170,000,000
£180,000,000
£190,000,000
£200,000,000
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Audi
ted
adsp
end
(UK)
Year ending
Major tech firms spend on traditional brand media
Source: NielsenBrands: Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, AirBnB, Uber, Spotify
Innovation makes activation easier
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
28%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
No innovation Any innovation
V La
rge
Activ
atio
n fx
.
6172
3928
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
No innovation Any innovation
Brra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n op
timum
Brand Activation
Brand building is easier for new brands
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
1.9
1.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
New brand Established brand
Num
ber o
f Bra
nd fx
.
56 63
44 37
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
New brand Established brand
Brra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n op
timum
Brand Activation
Beware the inflection point with launches
3557
6543
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Launches in the first two years Launches after the first year
Opt
imum
bud
get s
plit
%
Activation
Brand
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Brand is the key to premium pricing
57 64
43 36
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Value/mid-market Premium
Brra
nd/a
ctiv
atio
n op
timum
% brand % activation
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0 1 2 3+
% R
epor
ting
very
larg
e pr
ice
sens
itivi
ty re
duct
ion
Number of very large brand effects recorded
How does this affect sectors?
Brand building always drives long-term effectiveness
0.9 0.90.8
1.0
0.7
1.31.2
1.6 1.6 1.6
2.5
2.0 2.11.8
2.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Durables FMCG Financial services Other services Retail
Num
ber o
f ver
y la
rge
busi
ness
fx.
Sector
Number of brand effects reported0 1 ≥2
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Brand & Activation potential vary widely
31%26%
36%
44%
30%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Durables FMCG Financialservices
Otherservices
Retail
Very
larg
e ac
tivat
ion
fx.
Short-term activation effects
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
2.1
1.7 1.61.8
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Durables FMCG Financialservices
Otherservices
Retail
Num
ber o
f ver
y la
rge
bran
d fx
.
Brand effects
Up-weight brand in Financial Services, down-weight brand in Other Services
58 6080
5164
42 4020
4936
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Durables FMCG Financial services Other services Retail
Opt
imum
bud
get s
plit
% Activation
Brand
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
What about the NFP sector?
43 44 44
57 56 56
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Charities Government All NFP
Opt
imum
bud
get s
plit
Activation
Brand
Source: IPA Databank, 2012-2016 not-for-profit cases
The optimum balance is shifting
55 57 6376
45 43 3724
0102030405060708090
100
98 to 10 00 to 12 02 to 14 04 to 16
Opt
imum
bud
get s
plit
%
Period
Activation
Brand
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
The Activation Tide
Short-termism has risen, especially amongst online brands
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% c
ampa
igns
that
wer
e sh
ort t
erm
6 years ending
Online
Offline
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Short-termism has grown most in high online research categories
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% c
ampa
igns
that
wer
e sh
ort t
erm
6 years ending
High research
Low research
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
As short-termism took off, effectiveness fell
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% c
ases
shor
t-te
rm
Avg.
no.
VL
busi
ness
effe
cts
6 years ending
Effectiveness
% short-term
Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 for-profit cases
Sectors that went short lost out
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%
Loss
of e
ffect
iven
ess 2
014-
16 v
s. 2
006-
08
Growth of short-termism 2014-16 vs. 2006-08
76% Correlation
Other services
Financial services
Durables
FMCG
Retail
Source: IPA Databank, 2006-2016 for-profit cases
Brand-building media are becoming more important
Established brand media are working harder
27%22%
13% 14%
40%
27%22%
27%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
TV Press Radio Outdoor
% in
crea
se in
avg
. no.
VL
busi
ness
effe
cts f
rom
add
ing
Web 1.0 (1998 - 2006) Web 2.0 (2008* - 2016)Source: IPA Databank*Outdoor = 2012 - 2016
TV is still best for market share growth
1.1%
1.8%2.1%
2.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
No TV TV sponsorship DRTV Brand TV
Avg.
mar
ket s
hare
poi
nts
gain
ed p
er a
nnum
Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
Reach and Viewability drive growth
2.6%
3.1%
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
TV only Both Online video only
Avg.
mar
ket s
hare
ga
in p
er a
nnum
Source: IPA Databank, 2014-16 cases
TV consistently outperforms online video across 2017 research studies
2.4 x2.6 x
2.4 x
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Share growth - IPA Short-term sales - KarenNelson-Field
Long-term ROI -Ebiquity/Gain Theory
TV p
erfo
rman
ce v
s. O
nlin
e vi
deo
Sources: IPA Databank ‘Media in Focus’ , Professor Karen Nelson-Field PhD ‘Media Attributes that (really) Matter’ ,Ebiquity ROI campaign database & Gain Theory ‘Profit Ability: the business case for advertising’
Reversing the activation tide
The AA case study
The AA focus on ‘hard working’ activation
Impressive profit growth
Case study: AA Roadside Assistance• Brand activity cut in favour of “hard working” activation• Initial discounts used to entice new members• Renewal price hikes used to make up profit• Highly profitable in the short term
BUT…
Source: AA 2018 IPA case study
AA brand metrics in free fall
Commoditisation: AA branded search
Unsustainable AA pricing model
Case study: AA Roadside Assistance• Brand activity cut in favour of “hard working” activation• Initial discounts used to entice new members• Renewal price hikes used to make up profit• Highly profitable in the short term
BUT…• Brand metrics in free fall• Whole category becoming commoditised• Angry customers, churn increasing• Bigger and bigger discounts required• Market share declining• Complete collapse predicted in five years
Source: AA 2018 IPA case study
42%42%
40%
40%
39%
39%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Shar
e of
mem
bers
hip
(%)
Year
AA market share decline
SOURCE: AA
Complete collapse predicted in five years
AA Roadside Assistance
42%42%
40%
40%
39%
39%
42%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Shar
e of
mem
bers
hip
(%)
Year
AA market share recovered rapidly
SOURCE: AA
2017 ads
Brand metrics improvedBranded searches increased
Acquisition increasedRetention increased
Despite less discounting
Conclusions
• Invest more in brand building where it is difficult• Invest more in activation where it is difficult• Brand building is becoming more important: the 60:40
rule is shifting further to brand• This is making brand-building media more important• We need to restore balance to budget deployment:
allocate the recommended balance for your brand’s context
Thank you