FEWS NET [email protected]www.fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government PRICE WATCH August 2017 Prices September 29, 2017 KEY MESSAGES • In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International rice and wheat imports along with institutional subsidized sales continue to support market supplies. Prices stabilized or began declining after reaching their highest levels of the marketing year in July. Pastoral conditions improved, due to adequate pasture and water availability. Current market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures (Page 3). • In East Africa, maize supplies are generally below-average, causing above-average prices across most of the region. Staple food price levels are especially high in South Sudan. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access. Harvests are ongoing in Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, and are about to begin in Kenya. Supplies are seasonally low in Ethiopia and Sudan as the lean season progresses (Page 4). • In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent regional harvests. Regional maize production estimates for the 2016/17 season are good, with record-high harvests anticipated in South Africa. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices followed seasonal trends in August and are at or below their respective 2016 and average levels many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions. Export parity prices are competitive and exports, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and International markets (from South Africa) (Page 5). • In Central America, markets remained well supplied as the main maize harvest (Primera season) began and imports continued supporting local availability. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or decreasing, except in Nicaragua where the season is slightly delayed. Staple food prices remain near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean prices continued to ease as the Printemps harvest draws to an end under generally favorable conditions (Page 6). Imported rice prices were stable while the Haitian gourde maintained relative stability against the USD. • Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices generally remained stable in the region. Production forecasts remain largely unchanged from last month. Harvest in Tajikistan will be slightly above last year’s level, similar to last year’s level in Pakistan, and slightly below last year’s level in Kazakhstan and Afghanistan (Page 7). • International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat and soybean prices fell (Figure 2). Crude oil prices rose but continue to remain well below average levels (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET Country coverage Source: FEWS NET. Note: Market Watch countries are surplus-producing countries whose impact on global, regional, national, and/or local markets is included in FEWS NET analysis. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect
the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government
PRICE WATCH August 2017 Prices September 29, 2017
KEY MESSAGES
• In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International rice and wheat imports along with institutional subsidized sales continue to support market supplies. Prices stabilized or began declining after reaching their highest levels of the marketing year in July. Pastoral conditions improved, due to adequate pasture and water availability. Current market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures (Page 3).
• In East Africa, maize supplies are generally below-average, causing above-average prices across most of the region. Staple food price levels are especially high in South Sudan. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access. Harvests are ongoing in Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, and are about to begin in Kenya. Supplies are seasonally low in Ethiopia and Sudan as the lean season progresses (Page 4).
• In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent regional harvests. Regional maize production estimates for the 2016/17 season are good, with record-high harvests anticipated in South Africa. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices followed seasonal trends in August and are at or below their respective 2016 and average levels many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions. Export parity prices are competitive and exports, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and International markets (from South Africa) (Page 5).
• In Central America, markets remained well supplied as the main maize harvest (Primera season) began and imports continued supporting local availability. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or decreasing, except in Nicaragua where the season is slightly delayed. Staple food prices remain near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean prices continued to ease as the Printemps harvest draws to an end under generally favorable conditions (Page 6). Imported rice prices were stable while the Haitian gourde maintained relative stability against the USD.
• Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices generally remained stable in the region. Production forecasts remain largely unchanged from last month. Harvest in Tajikistan will be slightly above last year’s level, similar to last year’s level in Pakistan, and slightly below last year’s level in Kazakhstan and Afghanistan (Page 7).
• International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice, maize, wheat and soybean prices fell (Figure 2). Crude oil prices rose but continue to remain well below average levels (Page 2).
Figure 1. FEWS NET Country coverage
Source: FEWS NET. Note: Market Watch countries are surplus-producing countries whose impact on global, regional, national, and/or local markets is included in FEWS NET analysis.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity.
The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference
markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations,
ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
• International rice prices continued to ease in major markets but remained firm in the western hemisphere. Thai prices fell with arrival of the second crop and similarly declined in Pakistan and Vietnam due to strong competition (InterRice and World Bank) (Figure 2). Global supplies continue to remain close to average levels (Figure 3).
• Global maize prices decreased in August owing to ample global supplies and favorable crop conditions for leading producers. Maize prices continue to remain well below average levels (FAO and World Bank).
• International wheat prices weakened after increasing for two consecutive months as a result of higher production expectations in the Black Sea region (AMIS and FAO). Global wheat supplies remain well above average levels (Figure 3).
• Global soybean prices fell in August as upward revision in Brazil and the US more than offset lower forecast for Argentina and India. Global supply remains abundant (IGC and AMIS).
• International crude oil prices tightened due to significant disruptions by Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Louisiana, which restricted refining and transportation capacity (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
Outlook
• Global rice prices are expected to stabilize until the arrival of the Asian main crop, which is expected to be 0.5 percent higher than previous year levels. Trade is projected to increase by 7.2 percent and return to 2015 levels. Global closing stocks stable at roughly one third of world consumption (FAO and InterRice).
• Global maize production for 2017/18 is set to exceed the 2016/17 peak due to record outputs in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa. Utilization will expand by 1.3 percent, driven mainly by growth in feed use (USDA FAS and AMIS).
• Global wheat production forecast for 2017/18 is lowered to capture downward revisions but is expected to remain the
second highest on record (AMIS and World Bank).
• Global soybean output for 2017/18 is expected to be the second highest on record, even with a 2 percent year-on-year production decline. Stocks will tighten as continued demand for soybean products is set to push use to a new high (IGC).
• Strong inventory draws on international crude oil will likely place upward pressure on prices for the remainder of 2017 as well as in 2018 (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January
2011 – August 2017
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), World Bank.
Figure 3. Global Market Indicators, 2017/18 compared to 2012 - 2016
average
Source: FEWS NET calculations based on World Bank 2017 and USDA 2017.
Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and
regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 2). Fuel price trends in FEWS
NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and
the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies.
• In West Africa, regional staple food availability was adequate in August due to the availability of local remaining stocks from the previous production year, regional and international trade flows, and seasonal subsidized sales (Figure 4). Pastoral conditions are favorable and demand increased in August with the Tabaski holiday. In Nigeria, the depreciation of the Naira (NGN), official and unofficial restrictions on trade, and the ongoing conflict in the northeast continues to disrupt domestic staple food, cash crop, and livestock markets (Figure 5). The dynamic is Nigeria has had a significant impact on markets, trade flows, and price trends in neighboring areas of south-central and eastern Niger as well as central and south-western Chad.
• Cross-border trade remained dynamic within and between the different basins in August. Reduced flows from Nigeria to Niger (due to the macro-economic situation in Nigeria coupled with border restrictions) were partially offset by intensified flows from the Central basin (Burkina Faso, Benin, Ghana, Togo, and Benin) to Niger. However, market activities remain disrupted in insecurity stricken zones of the Greater Lake Chad area and, to a lesser extent, Northern Mali. Trade flows are likewise constrained between Chad, Libya, and the Central Africa Republic. Market activities in Mauritania along the Senegalese border continue to operate at below normal levels due to customs control measures in place.
• Cereal prices stabilized or began declining in August after reaching their highest levels of the marketing year in July. Prices for many commodities remain below their respective 2016 and five-year average levels across much of the Western and Central Basins. However, local and imported rice prices remain above their respective 2016 and five-year average levels in Mauritania due to recent changes in the import tariff schedule. The majority of ongoing regional market supply and price anomalies are concentrated in the Eastern Basin.
• In Nigeria, the effects of multiple shocks continue to disrupt market activities, resulting in atypical price trends in Nigeria and neighboring countries. Prices are above their respective 2015/16 levels in central and eastern Niger where there were above-average localized deficits during the 2016/17 marketing year. Those same areas continue to receive lower than average staple food imports from Nigeria to fill the gap. Below average forage availability coupled with below average market demand continues to put downward pressure on livestock demand and prices in Niger.
• The livestock markets in the region were marked by seasonally high sheep demand for the Tabaski holiday, resulting in region-wide month on month price increases in August. Pastoral conditions are likewise favorable in the region, with improved pasture and water availability. However, livestock prices remain well below average in Niger and Chad due to the reduced of export opportunities to Nigeria.
Outlook
• Market demand is expected to decline with the onset of the main grain harvests across the region. Harvests for the 2017/18 marketing year are expected to be above average. This will encourage the release of stocks and maintain market supplies at sufficient levels. Grain prices are expected to decline and will remain close to average, except in areas where the macroeconomic and policy environment have pushed prices up (Mauritania and Nigeria) or where disruptions to trade flows limit the extent to which regional supplies fill localized deficits (Niger and northeast Nigeria). Despite favorable pastoral conditions, livestock prices in the Sahel will likely remain below average due to limited demand from Nigeria.
Figure 4. West Africa Regional cereal production (000s MT)
Source: Authors’ calculations based on CILSS 2016 data.
Figure 5. Maize prices in West Africa compared to average
levels
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on Oanda, FEWS NET, WFP, MIS data.
• Staple food prices seasonally increased and remained atypically high across most markets in South Sudan driven by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, such as hyperinflation, continued depreciation of local
currency, as well as depleted stocks from the significantly below-average previous harvest, erratic trade flows due to insecurity, and scarcity of fuel. Supplies are especially thin and erratic in areas where there is sustained conflict and high insecurity, including markets in the Greater Upper Nile region, with seasonal deterioration of road access during the June-to-October rains.
• In Yemen, wheat flour prices remained stable or declined across most markets, supported by food imports during the first six months of the year by traders. The recent floating of the Yemeni Rial (YER) has had insignificant effect on markets as traders were already previously using the unofficial market exchange rate. Staple food prices are expected to remain well above-average due to ongoing conflict related market and economic disruptions.
• In Somalia, the ongoing July-to-August Gu season continued to increase supplies, causing maize and sorghum prices to decline across most markets, but remain above average (Figure 6). The prices remained stable in the central region which was dependent on little local production, and humanitarian distributions. Livestock prices increased typically following availability of feed and water, high domestic and export demand to the Middle East for the Hajj season in September, and limited supply of livestock because of past consecutive droughts resulting in livestock deaths.
• The May-to-July (Msimu) harvest in Tanzania’s main producing southern region, which accounts for approximately 75 percent of the total annual food production, began and is estimated to be above 2016 levels, causing prices to decrease across most markets in Tanzania. Prices also decreased in Kenya, with the imminent start of the September-to-January harvest, supported by cross-border imports, international imports, and government subsidized maize flour. Both maize and bean prices were elevated due to below average harvest and reduced regional trade. Livestock prices were mixed increasing in eastern rangelands due to availability of feed and water, but declining in central Kenya rangelands where pasture and water are scarce.
• Prices increased seasonally in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda. Supplies were tight in Ethiopia and Sudan as their lean seasons progressed. Ample supplies from previous above average harvest in Sudan moderated the seasonal increase in prices, but high inflation rate kept prices above average. The price increase in Ethiopia was exacerbated by low inventory in some regions, below average June-to-August (Belg) harvest, increased purchases by Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), increased exports to Kenya, expectations of below-to-average forthcoming October-to-January harvest because of Fall Armyworm infestation, and delayed and reduced relief assistance, keeping prices above average. In Uganda, prices began to increase following the end of the June-to-July harvest and remained above average (Figure 7).
Figure 6. Sorghum prices in East Africa compared to average
levels
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on Food and Agriculture Market
Information System (FAMIS), FSNAU, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM),
Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM*.
Figure 7. Maize prices in East Africa compared to average levels
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on data from regional partners (listed
• In Southern Africa, maize supplies on markets throughout the region were at average to above average levels. The 2017 maize harvest prospects are above average for most countries. South Africa and Zambia continued exporting maize to regional grain deficit countries. Formal and informal maize trade ensured movement of surpluses to deficit areas of the region.
• Maize prices followed seasonal trends in August, increasing slightly in some areas and stabilizing in others (Figure 8). Prices are now generally below their respective 2016 and average levels in the region. Local rice (gasy) and maize harvests in Madagascar are below average. However, the country continued importing rice, thereby ensuring regular supplies of imported rice on local markets.
• After importing aggressively from international markets through February, South Africa ceased importing in April. Maize export parity prices declined persistently in recent months due to the availability well above average harvests for the 2017/18 marketing year. Prices in South Africa are now at international reference market price levels. These trends continued encouraging exports (and re-exports) to regional markets and beyond (Figure 9). Recent data from FEWS NET’s informal trade monitoring system indicate that favorable export parity prices coupled with the recent removal of the official maize export restrictions that were in place in Zambia since 2016 resulted in substantial increases in regional exports during the current marketing year.
• Maize grain prices declined sharply during the first months of the marketing year and have since stabilized in many places. Prices are well below their respective 2016 and average levels in most countries. Prices of common substitutes such as maize meal, rice, and cassava varied. Unlike maize, the prices of these substitutes are generally above average. The exception is in Zimbabwe, where maize meal prices declined rapidly in line with maize grain prices and reaching below average levels in many markets. Imports into Zimbabwe are well below average, but persist, despite an ongoing import ban. Production prospects are not favorable in Tanzania, however, prices were stable or declined in the surplus-producing southern highlands. While markets were disrupted by the effects of Enawo in the northeast of Madagascar, production prospects improved in the southern-most areas of the country, easing pressure on local supplies and prices. Prices were generally stable in August.
Outlook
• Regional maize supplies are likely to be at average to above-average levels throughout the marketing year. Trade between South Africa and Zambia, and regional grain deficit countries is likely to be relatively weak given above average domestic supplies in most countries. International expo rts may however remain strong, as South Africa is likely going to continue exporting to East Asia and to global markets, while Zambia may continue exporting (formally and informally) to East Africa. Malawi and Mozambique are likely to continue trading informally to satisfy localized gaps within them. Rice (gasy) supplies which are below-average in Madagascar are likely to be augmented by imports. Maize prices are expected to follow seasonal trends and remain near or below average throughout the marketing year. In South Africa, maize prices are likely to remain depressed throughout the marketing year, sustaining international trade. Rice (gasy) prices in Madagascar are expected to reach levels similar to those seen in 2016 and supplies will be complemented by imports.
Figure 8. White maize prices in selected markets (USD/kg)
Source: FEWS NET estimates based on data from SADC and government
ministries.
Figure 9. Current maize prices in Southern Africa (USD/kg)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of
Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM) of Tanzania,
Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET.
• White maize prices varied across the region as the lean season reached its peak in some areas, while supplies from the Primera harvest, the region’s main maize harvest, began to reach markets in others. The harvest is estimated to be delayed by one month in Nicaragua, where prices increased atypically as a result. Informal imports from Mexico continued to support supplies in Guatemala, and imports by the government continued to boost domestic supplies in El Salvador. Maize prices are below 2016 and average levels across the region (Figure 10).
• Bean supplies from the Primera harvest began to slowly reach markets, causing prices to seasonally to stabilize in Nicaragua, and decrease in Honduras and El Salvador. Prices were also atypically stable Guatemala when they typically are still increasing, reflecting the early arrival of supplies from the harvest in markets due to early onset of rainfall. Bean prices remained near or below average across the region.
• In Haiti, the Printemps harvest attained its peak as harvest continued in areas where there was a late start to the planting season. Local maize and maize meal prices fell to levels below 2016 but remain above average levels. Globally, black bean prices continued to ease, with the exception of the Fond des Nègres, Jérémie and Cap Haïtien markets (Figure 11). Black bean prices continue to remain well above average levels, making it less accessible to poorer households. Nationally, imported rice remains largely available, while prices are firm but higher than previous year levels. An import restriction by the Haitian government continues to limit supply for key staples such as cooking oil and wheat flour, which are typically imported from the Dominican Republic.
Outlook
• In Central America, the Primera season (the main maize harvest) is expected to be average to above average across the region, and could possibly reach record levels in Nicaragua. Maize and bean prices are expected to start to seasonally decrease with as supplies from the harvest reach markets in September. As a result of the favorable harvests and additional imported supplies, maize prices are likely to trend near to below average across the region over the coming months. Bean prices are expected to stay near or above average levels across the region.
• In Haiti, both local and imported maize and maize meal prices are expected to fall in the coming months given expectations for close to average maize harvests. Local black bean prices will continue to ease as harvest progresses in the mountainous areas. Both local bean and maize prices should tighten by September due to increased seed demand for the été planting season. The recent removal of fuel subsidies has resulted in higher transportation costs that will continue to place an upward pressure on staple food prices. Imported rice will remain available with mostly firm prices as global market conditions continue to be favorable, and the Haitian gourde to USD exchange rate remains relatively stable.
Figure 10. White maize prices in Central America compared
to average levels
Source: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and
FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGECA),
Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de
Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala (MAGA).
Figure 11. Average national staple food prices and exchange
rate in Haiti, January 2011- August 2017
Source: FEWS NET / CNSA.
PRICE WATCH September 2017
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7
CENTRAL ASIA Current Situation
• Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2017/18 marketing year in September (Figure 12 and Table 1). However, as detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, regional wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade.
• Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest exporter, have been stable since June. Wheat export quotas have remained at the same level in the past several months, due to low trade activity before the arrival of the new supplies from the 2017 harvest.
• Wheat flour prices in Tajikistan remained stable in August but were higher than last year, mainly due to weak local currency and high fuel costs, which were around 20 percent higher year on year. Potato prices, another staple crop, were above price for the same month last year following concerns over reduced availability of a high-quality crop in the export market.
• In Pakistan, wheat grain and flour prices remained stable between July and September in major markets. Prices are comparable to 2016 and the five-year average, reflecting average production and above-average carry-over stocks. Wheat flour prices have only increased 0.76 percent compared to July 2017 and have increased 2.90 percent compared to August 2016.
• In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were stable between August and September with an average wheat harvest in 2016. The current average wheat price in main city markets is negligibly lower compared to the same time last year, but 6.5 percent higher compared to the five-year average. In general, prices are similar to respective 2016 levels, but slightly above the five-year average in some markets.
Outlook
• Regional availability and price trends are expected to continue varying across Central Asia.
• The 2016/17 wheat harvest in Kazakhstan is estimated to be seven percent lower than last year due to the reduction in area planted but the aggregate 2017 cereal production is estimated to be well above the five-year average. Aggregate cereal exports in the 2017/18 marketing year are forecast to be about 8.3 million tons, three percent lower than last year due to expectations of smaller demand for wheat outside of the Central Asia (FAO/GIEWS). Kazakhstan is expected to maintain steady exports of wheat contributing to stable regional supplies.
• In Tajikistan, the wheat harvest will reportedly be seven percent higher than last year’s below-average level, likely reducing the import requirement of wheat and wheat flour to about 11 percent below the previous season’s level (FAO/GIEWS).
• Production in Pakistan for the 2017/18 marketing year is expected to reach 25.2 MMT, similar to last year and the five-year average (USDA/FAS). Average production for the last couple of years resulted in above-average carry-over stocks (nearly double the five-year average), which will help to maintain price stability at the national level and allow for exports to Afghanistan.
• In Afghanistan, the main June to August 2017 wheat harvest is underway and preliminary findings of the Food Security Outlook Update, suggest that production in 2017 will be below-average and below 2016 levels. Favorable domestic and regional supply conditions will contribute to a smooth importing process of wheat and wheat flour, resulting in stable prices, within the normal range.
Figure 12. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia (USD/kg)
Source: WFP, VAM; APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan, Pakistan Bureau of
Statistics.
Table 1. Regional wheat availability and price trends
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 August 2017 Prices September 30, 2017
Food and Fuel Price Trends Food and Fuel Price Trends
▲ ►
8 25 19 ▲ ▲ ▲
▲ ►Burkina Faso Burkina Faso
3 2 -9 ► ► ▼
►
% Change Over
Change over
% Change Over
Change over
one month,
one year, and one year, and
5-year avg. 5-year avg.
West
Afr
ica
8 0 3 ▲ ► ▼ ▼Burkina Faso Burkina Faso
11 43 24 ▲
4 21 -2 ► ▲ ►17 17 15
▲ ▲
► -17 -12 ►
3 7 2
one month,
3 10 -3 ►
6 -1 -6 ▲ ► ▼
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United
States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices
and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for August 2017. Commodities
included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same
areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols (▲►▼) depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an
increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price
decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year
average. The “-“ symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail.
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 2 August 2017 prices September 30, 2017
We
st A
fric
a
Figure 1. Millet prices in West Africa (2011 - 2017) Figure 2. Sorghum prices in West Africa (2011 - 2017)
Figure 3. Maize prices in West Africa (2011 - 2017) Figure 4. Rice prices in West Africa (2011 - 2017)
East
Afr
ica
Figure 5. Dry bean prices in East Africa (2011 - 2017) Figure 6. Sorghum prices in East Africa (2011 - 2017)
Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System
market (SIM) in Senegal and FEWS NET.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides prices
trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported
prices are retail.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the
view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
____________________* imported rice
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
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14
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-14
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-17
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r-1
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Moundou, Chad Solenzo, Burkina FasoSegou, Segou centre, Mali Maradi, NigerKaolak, Senegal
USD/kg
0.00
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0.75
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Maradi, Niger Moundou, ChadSegou, Segou centre, Mali Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina FasoKano, Nigeria (W)
Figure 7. Maize prices in surplus areas of East Africa (2011 - 2017) Figure 8. Maize prices in deficit areas of East Africa (2011 - 2017)
September 2017
Figure 9. White maize prices in Southern Africa (2011 - 2017) Figure 10. Bean and cowpea prices in Southern Africa (2011 - 2017)
Figure 11. Imported rice prices in Southern Africa (2011 - 2017)So
uth
ern
Afr
ica
Sources of prices in East Africa: Food and Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS) FSTS/FEWS NET in Somalia, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of
Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM), Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM
Sources of prices in Southern Africa: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM)) of Tanzania, Observatoire du
Riz of Madagascar, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET.
____________________* dry beans** cowpeas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
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-13
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r-1
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l-1
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3Ja
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pr-
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14
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-16
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-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7
Lilongwe, Malawi Lusaka, Zambia
Harare, Zimbabwe Maputo, Mozambique
Mbeya, Tanzania (W) Randfontein, South Africa
USD/kgUSD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3Ju
l-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Dodoma, Tanzania (W)
Maputo, Mozambique Nampula, Mozambique
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3Ju
l-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (W)Eldoret, Kenya (W) Kampala, Uganda (W)Qorioley, Somalia Songea, Tanzania (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3Ju
l-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7
Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Jamame, SomaliaJijiga, Ethiopia Juba, South SudanNairobi, Kenya (W)
Figure 12. White maize prices in Central America (2011 - 2017) Figure 13. Dry bean prices in Central America (2011 - 2017)
Cen
tral A
meri
ca a
nd
Cari
bb
ean
Figure 14. Imported Rice Prices in Haiti (2011 - 2017) Figure 15. Black bean prices in Haiti (2011 - 2017)
Cen
tral A
sia
Figure 16. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia (2011 - 2017) Figure 17. Wheat flour prices in Central Asia (2011 - 2017)
**
**
**
*
Sources of prices in Central America and Caribbean: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGEA),
Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de
Guatemala (MAGA).
____________________* black beans ** red beans
Sources of prices in Central Asia: Afghanistan, WFP and FEWS NET.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2Ju
l-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-17
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, HaitiJacmel, Haiti Jérémie, HaitiPort-au-Prince, Haiti
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-1
2Ju
l-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13Ju
l-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Guatemala City, Guatemala (W) Managua, NicaraguaSan Salvador, El Salvador San Jose, Costa Rica (W)Tegucigalpa, Honduras
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3Ju
l-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7
Guatemala City, Guatemala Managua, Nicaragua (W)San Salvador, El Salvador Mexico City, Mexico (W)Tegucigalpa, Honduras
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1Ju
l-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-1
3Ju
l-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, HaitiJacmel, Haiti Jérémie, HaitiPort-au-Prince, Haiti
