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Priorities for Tropical Cyclone Research: A NASA Senior Leader’s Perspective.
Dr. Jack Kaye,Associate Director for Research
Earth Science DivisionScience Mission Directorate
NASA Headquarters
Presented at Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
March 3, 2008
With thanks to Scott Braun, Ramesh Kakar, Andy Roberts, Graeme Stephens, Bjorn Lambrigtsen, Amy Walton, Steve Ambrose, Bill Lau
2March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Hurricane Research Focus Areas
Satellite remote sensing
Field campaigns Numerical modeling
Sensor development
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Satellite Observations of Hurricanes
TRMM QuikscatAqua
CALIPSO/CloudSat
AuraGPM
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
JASON
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A-Train data - most importantly CloudSat information on cloud top height and vertical storm structure and MODIS brightness temperatures provide an opportunity to demonstrate and test this technique as we are now able to quantify the defining parameters in the prediction equation.
The predicted storm intensity from cloudsat
Independent best track dataLuo et al., 2008
A-Train Use for Hurricane Studies
Heavy Rain, Floods, Landslides in Hispaniola--1 November 2007 Analyzed in Real-Time by Global Hazard System (GHS)
3-day heavy rains over 250 mm over Dominican Republic related to Hurricane Noel produces flooding (deduced by hydrologic model running globally in real-time) and landslides (estimated from real-time landslide potential algorithm)
Rainfall information is from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Adler/Goddard Space Flight Center
Estimated Water Depth from Hydrological Model 35mm 75mm >125mm
3-Day Rainfall
Madagascar Floods and Landslides 18 Feb. 2008, 15 UTC
Southern Africa: Cyclone Ivan Sweeps Across Madagascar, Heads for MozambiqueUN Integrated Regional Information Networks18 February 2008
Tropical cyclone "Ivan" made its way across the Indian Ocean and slammed into Madagascar's northeastern coast on Sunday, 18 February. "We are 100 kilometres [south] from where the eye of the cyclone landed. There are very strong winds, infrastructure has been damaged, bridges have been flooded and we cannot pass. According to the BNGRC's Soa, "Ivan passed though highly populated areas and there was lots of rain. Almost all the towns where Ivan has passed are flooded now. The level of rivers and the sea is rising, and in the capital there is also risk of floods."
Support from NASA Applied Sciences and Precipitation Measurement Missions (TRMM and GPM) programs
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NRC Decadal Survey and Recommended Hurricane-Related Missions
• Nearest-Term Recommendations- SMAP - soil moisture - To be initiated in FY09 budget for 2012 launch- ICESat II - ice sheet thickness (et al) - TBI FY09 budget for 2015 launch- CLARREO - baseline climate/radiation mission- DESDynI - radar/lidar for deformation, vegetation et al:
• Longer-Term Recommendations - Hurricane Relevant Missions
Mission Time Cat Description Orbit InstrumentsSWOT 2013-16 M Ocean, lake, and river water levels LEO, SSO Ka-band wide swath
for ocean and inland water dynamics radar, C band radarGEO-CAPE 2013-16 M Atmospheric gas columns for air quality GEO High and low spatial
forecasts; ocean color for coastal resolution hyper-ecosystem health and climate emissions spectral
imagersACE 2013-16 L Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate LEO/SSOBackscatter lidar,
and water cycle; ocean color for open Multiangle polarimeter
ocean biogeochemistry Doppler radar PATH 2016-20 M High frequency, all-weather temperature GEO MW array
and humidity soundings for weather spectrometer
forecasting and SST*GACM 2016-20 L Ozone and related gases for LEO/SSO UV spectrometer
intercontinental air quality and IR spectrometerstratospheric ozone layer prediction wave
limb sounder 3D-Winds 2016-20 L Tropospheric winds for weather LEO/SSO Doppler Lidar(Demo) forecasting and pollution transport
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NASA Field Programs
Program Manager: Ramesh KakarField programs coordinated with NOAA/Hurricane Research Division
1998 2001 2005
2006
NASA DC-8
NASA ER-2
2010 under active
consideration
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UAS Hurricane Mission 2007Mission Review Status
• Mission Readiness Review completed 8/31/07• WFF King Air is the Aerosonde escort aircraft
Mission documentation completed• Required mission documents signed off • Improving display capability in Real Time Mission Monitor
(RTMM) in Google Earth
Hurricane Noel 11/2/07• Flew Nov 2 from WFF• Flew 17.5 hours at 500 feet from edge to eye, several
vertical profiles to 5000 ft. First time this interaction data has been obtained
• Over 10 hours in the storm, before a controlled termination in the water
• Map at right shows max potential range from NASKW & WFF without overland restrictions (white circles), current operational area in Gulf of Mexico (green), and Gulf oil rig no fly zone (red)
• Flown jointly with the NOAA P-3• Potential FAA issue regarding interpretation of
authorization to fly between Wallops and the COA issuing authority at FAA
IIP-98 APR-2 Airborne Simulator2007 NASA TC4 Science Experiment Highlights
The Airborne simulator of the Second-generation Precipitation Radar (APR-2) developed through IIP was one of the science instruments on DC-8 aircraft during the 2007 NASA TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling) science field experiment in Costa Rica.
DC-8 flight crew and experimenters in Juan Santamaria Airport
DC-8 sped down the runway during the first science flight
A large convective system seen from DC-8
APR-2’s controller and monitor console
Real-time display of the vertical cloud and rainfall profiles measured by APR-2
One of the APR-2 science objective in TC4 was to study the cirrus anvil growth by combining its observations together with the measurements obtained by the overflighting 94-GHz radar on CloudSat. This figure is an example of several interesting datasets acquired for the investigation: the 14/35-GHz rain reflectivity and Doppler velocity profiles were obtained by APR-2 during a CloudSat overpass (the boxed region on the top panel).
APR-2 35-GHz reflectivity
APR-2 14-GHz reflectivity
CloudSat 94-GHz reflectivity
APR-2 14-GHz Doppler velocity
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Targeted Technology Investment Pays Dividends in Science Return
The ESTO IIP-1 funded High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) has flown as part of Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-4), the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission, and the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) Mission
The Integrated Multispectral Atmospheric Sounder (IMAS) 55 GHz MMIC Radiometer
The ESTO IIP-1 funded Millimeter Wave MMIC Temperature and Humidity Sensor - 118 and 183 GHz Radiometers
The ESTO ACT-05 funded Low Noise Amplifier (LNA) for MMIC Radiometers
Airborne Instrument Tech-Airborne Instrument Tech-nology Transition (AITT) nology Transition (AITT) may use HAMSR for may use HAMSR for future hurricane research on board
the NASA Global Hawk
Additional Infusions may Additional Infusions may include the include the PATH Decadal Survey Mission and the NPOESS-MIS
NEXRAD In Space (NIS)Potential Contribution of Geostationary Doppler
Weather Radar to Hurricane Forecast Geostationary sensors grant shortest revisit time, but currently lack 3D and velocity information.
NIS is a Ka-band geostationary Doppler radar: it would fill this gap
E.Im et. al, Radar Meteorology Conference 2007
OSSE shows predicted impact on Hurricane intensity forecast skill
G. Tripoli et al. American Meteorological Society 88th Annual Meeting, 2008
Hurricane Beta, 2005. W.Lewis et al. (2008)
Without NISWith NIS 3D Reflectivity only
With NIS measurements
With NIS 3D Doppler only
Forecast Time (hours) Forecast Time (hours)
Forecast Time (hours)Forecast Time (hours)
GeoSTAR Development History
NOAAStudy
$100K
ACT: Signal distribution $1M
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007NMP/EO-3Phase-A $700K
JPL R&TD: GeoSTAR calibration $250K
Raw synthesized image
Processed image
“Near Field range”, JPL
GeoSTAR
Target
Temperaturecontrolled
padsBeacon
@ center
Absolute calibration
ACT: 183-GHz MMIC development $1M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
150 160 170 180 190
Frequency [GHz]
Ga
in [
dB
], N
ois
e F
igu
re [
dB
]
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
No
ise
Te
mp
era
ture
[K
]
Gain [dB]
NF [dB]
NT [K]
Breakthrough MMIC performance
IIP: GeoSTAR ptototype$3.3M
DRO25.15 GHz
4-w
ay P
ower
Div
ider
8-w
ay P
ower
D
ivid
er Radiometers1 - 8
8-w
ay P
ower
D
ivid
er8-
way
Pow
er
Div
ider
Radiometers9 - 16
Radiometers17 - 24
+10 dBm
-2 dBm+8 dBm
-7
-10
Frequencyfrom QNX PC
(Optical Isolated)
SerialRS 232
Phase Controlfrom CIB
DC Power+5V, 150 ma
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PhaseShifter
Amp
-1
PhaseShifter
Amp
-1
Phase: 0, 45, 90, 135 TP
PhaseShifter
Amp
Agilent 8247Freq Synthesizer
25-27 GHz
DC Power+15V, 100 ma
2
2
Alternate LO source
Compact receivers
Low-power MMICs
LO phase switching system: Ultrastable operation
Correlator:• Efficient• Redundant• OK for ASICs
Feedhorns:Low mutual
coupling
Innovative array layout
All required technology elements developed & tested
First imagesat 50 GHz
by aperturesynthesis
IPP: MMIC development$250K
NOAAMissionStudy
$150K
PATHMissionStudy
$150K
Design innovations
Total investments so far:$7.2M
JPL R&TD: MMIC development $300K
MMICs embeddedin waveguides
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Summary
• NASA investment in hurricane research coordinates among four major areas, supporting both current science and advancement of capability for future
- Satellites - Modeling- Field Campaigns (incl. UAS) - Technology Development
• NASA provides competitive opportunities for community to participate in programs (e.g., ROSES 2008, A.16, Hurricane Science Research - due 5/16/08)
• NASA cooperates closely with interagency partners in all of the above, especially in data utilization and applications
• NASA takes broad view of tropical cyclones and considers hurricanes as part of overall effort of global reach and impact (e.g., International Asian Monsoon Year)
• NASA works to communicate research results and technical capabilities to partners and public
