Date post: | 08-Jun-2015 |
Category: |
Technology |
Upload: | international-water-management-institute-iwmi-cgiar-water-land-and-ecosystems-program |
View: | 397 times |
Download: | 2 times |
Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin
Notenbaert A., Pfeifer C., MacAlister C., Abebe Y., Omolo A., Rebelo L-M.
NBDC Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science WorkshopAddis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9 – 10 July 2013
Prioritizing rainwater management strategies in the Blue Nile basin
Funded by CPWF a collaboration of ILRI, IWMI, OARI, ARARI, ERHA
“On targeting and scaling out”
How can targeting in combination with out-scaling be linked to impact assessment and contribute to priority setting?
• Generic framework for targeting and prioritisation
• Application to RWM in the Blue Nile Basin
Generic framework for targeting and prioritisation
1. Diagnosis and identification of alternative options
2. Characterisation of options: identify the characteristics of the intervention that may affect its use and adoption in agricultural systems.
3. Identification of recommendation domains and out-scaling potential: where are these options likely to be applicable? and also: to be adopted?
4. Ex-ante impact assessment:a) Who are the groups of people who are likely to be affected by the output of
the technology/intervention?b) What are the nature of the impacts, in terms of both the type of impact and
their size?
Not a linear task a multi-stage and iterative process:
Blue Nile basin: challenges
• Food insecurity• High poverty levels• Low and variable yields• Declining soil fertility• Land degradation• Water logging• ….
Rainwater management practices
different landscape zones ~ different objectives
Main objective
Cropland Grassland Degraded land
UplandsIncrease
infiltration Increase quantity and
quality of fodder for livestock
Rehabilitate degraded land
MidlandsControl erosion
and soil moisture
Lowlands Efficient use of
surface or shallow groundwater
Rainwater management strategies
Aim: sustainably increase the system’s productivity at landscape scale
Trade-offs / synergies
Combined Rain Water Management Practices = Rainwater Management Strategies
Practice database
• Many different practices have been promoted and described
• Database with 83 practices
• Bio-physical, socio-economic and institutional conditions influence: suitability, adoption and success.
RMP database
Literature, expert knowledge and adoption studies
Adoption studiesVariable at farm level
(farm household survey)Orchard SWC Irrigation from the river Variable at woreda level
Landholding size -0.3633014(0.002)
-0.32609(0)
0.8432849(0.001)
Average landholding size*
Landholding size square 0.0098738(0.469)
0.025805(0.031)
-0.1226992(0.006)
average plot size 2.875819(0)
-1.460356(0.01)
Average plot size*
number of plots 0.077025(0)
0.0933675(0.001)
Land fragmentation*
Household size/landholding size
0.0124864(0.018)
Population density*
female headed HH (binary)
-0.9771629(0.001)
Proportion of female headed household*
Has off-farm income (binary)
0.324617(0.027)
Proportion of households not solely dependent on agriculture*
Has hired labor (binary) 0.0038905(0)
Proportion on household who hired labor*
Access to advise from the extension service (binary)
0.0038905(0)
0.390598(0)
Proportion of household with access to extension service*
access to credit (binary) 0.3168265(0.008)
Proportion of households with access to credit services*
time to market -0.108154(0.01)
Travel time**
time to market sq 0.0017995(0.041)
distance to market 0.723262(0.001)
Distance to town with more 10 000 inhabitant **
distance to market squared
-0.0015395(0.023)
Constant 0.5559211(0.036)
0.088009(0.586)
-4.648007(0)
Observations 683 724 814 R-squared 0.1073 0.096 0.1111 Condition slope>0 erosion>0 at least one flat plot
p-value in bracket *taken from the Ethiopian Rural Economic Atlas (census data)** other geographical layer (see data description in table 2)
“Suitability maps”
Link practice database to a spatial database:
Geographical areas where the practices are suitable
“willingness to adopt”
Results adoption studies applied to census data
Feasibility maps
Suitability x adoption = feasibility
User-friendly tool for targeting
NileGOBLET
Tool
Impact Assessment
Assess impacts of alternative strategies: Different stakeholders Different spatial and temporal scales Different metrics:
- Yield increases- Economic returns - Food security - Income- Sustainability
GIS overlays Models Quantitative assessment Multi-criteria analyses
Ex-ante impact assessment
Based on SLM best-bet practices: “most likely to be adopted” strategy
Transformed for SWAT modelling
Impact of full implementation:Local & basin scaleShort- & long term
Multi-stage process
Process applicable in different forms and settings
Step-by-step guide for planning
1
2
3
4THANK YOU!